11/13/2011 11:14 AM
Total Talk - Week 10
November 12, 2011
Week 9 Recap
The low-scoring run continued last week with 67% (8-4-1) of the games going ‘under’ the number. Outside of a few West Coast shootouts in the late afternoon, most of Sunday’s action was rather calm. Unfortunately for the sportsbooks, the ‘over’ cashed for the betting public in the two primetime games (see below). It took 10 weeks, but the ‘over’ reign is done. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 64-61-4 (51%).
Week 10 has seven divisional battles on tap this week, including three matchups that will feature teams meeting for the second time this season.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers (5-4) and Bengals (5-3) have both shaded to the ‘over’ this season. After some early season struggles, Pitt’s offense has put up 32, 25 and 20 points the last three weeks. Cincinnati’s defense (17.6 PPG) has been solid, but it’s safe to say that Big Ben will be the first legitimate quarterback the team will face. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the last three encounters in Cincinnati between this pair.
Denver at Kansas City: The Broncos and Chiefs have both inconsistent on offense this season, which makes this total even tougher to ‘cap. You don’t know which attack will show up, which would make most lean more toward the ‘under.’ However, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight meetings between Denver and Kansas City. The total opened at 42 ½ and has been pushed down to 41 at most books. Do yourself a favor and check the wind on this contest come Sunday.
New Orleans at Atlanta: This contest has seen the total drop too, down two points to 49 ½ at most shops. Games played indoors usually have fireworks but Atlanta has proven to be a decent defensive club lately. The team has given up an average of 16.3 PPG in their last four, and that includes only 25 points to Green Bay, which is considered a very good job these days. New Orleans has the weapons to score but its attack has only put up 20 and 21 its last two on the road. The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 over the past two regular seasons.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: (See Rust Affect)
Detroit at Chicago: (See Rust Affect)
New England at N.Y. Jets: (See Under the Lights)
Minnesota at Green Bay: (See Under the Lights)
Even though the numbers weren’t eye-opening, the ‘under’ still posted a 4-3 record in the seven games with teams coming off the BYE. On the season, the number stands at 18-7 (72%) to the ‘under.’ We have four more teams playing with rest again this week.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The total on this game is hovering between 37 and 38 points and when you look at the attacks, it should be lower. The Jaguars (12.3 PPG) and Colts (14.2 PPG) have both been inconsistent on offense this season. However, Jacksonville could see a surge this weekend against Indy’s defense (31.4 PPG), which is ranked dead last in the league. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight in this series, but the past history must be tossed out here without Peyton Manning playing for the Colts.
Carolina vs. Tennessee: Carolina’s offense (23.4 PPG) has been a surprise behind rookie QB Cam Newton, plus the defense (25.9 PPG) hasn’t been good due to key injuries. When you have that combination, you usually see high-scoring affairs and ‘over’ tickets. Despite some inflated numbers, Carolina has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3. This week’s number (46) could be a little too high against Tennessee, who is only playing its fourth road game of the season. The Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 in the first three games outside of Nashville.
Detroit at Chicago: The Lions beat the Bears 24-13 in a MNF battle on Oct. 10. The total (47) was never threatened and the score should’ve been lower if it wasn’t for two big-play touchdowns from Detroit. This week, the number is down to 44 ½ points and it could get lower due to some poor weather conditions. The ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last six meetings here.
Minnesota at Green Bay: (See Under the Lights)
Under the Lights
Even when you know, you just don’t know! That’s how some bettors probably felt after watching both the SNF and MNF affairs last week. The ‘under’ in the Steelers-Ravens game had a great pace (9-6) at the half and even heading into the fourth quarter (16-6) too. Sure enough, 21 points in the final 15 minutes, seven coming at the end as Baltimore notched a 23-20 win and the game jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42. Fast forward to MNF and it looked liked the Bears would be leading the Eagles 10-3 but two big turnovers turned into 14 points and Chicago led 17-10 at the break. Philadelphia posted 14 points in the second half but still came up short (30-24) to the Bears, but the ‘over’ cashed. Through nine weeks, the ‘over’ is 12-7-1 in primetime battles.
New England at New York: The last four in this series has gone ‘over’ the number, including the first meeting this season on Oct. 9, but it was very fortunate. The game closed at 50 ½ and the Patriots won 30-21, but the score was 10-7 at halftime. Prior to holding Buffalo to 11 points on the road last week, the Jets were giving up
Minnesota at Green Bay: The Vikings and Packers have watched the ‘over’ cash in seven of the last nine meetings, and that includes the shootout between the pair on Oct. 23. Green Bay captured a 33-27 road victory and the combined 60 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 46 ½. The Packers’ lowest output on offense this season has been 24 points. And most would expect them to get above that number again, since Minnesota hasn’t allowed less than 22 points in any of its four road games. This week’s number is hovering close to 51, which is inflated, but certainly doable.
The Best Bet ‘over’ prediction between Atlanta and Indianapolis had a nice pace (21-7) at the half but only 10 points were scored in the final 30 minutes. The Falcons did their job (31) but the Colts (7) got no points from their offense. While that was tough to stomach, the Bengals-Titans barely slid ‘under’ the closing number. The team total (Denver 17.5) also looked good at half with the Broncos putting up seven points, but not before they posted 31 points in the second-half. The teaser hit again, but the deficit was still $20. On the season, we’re up 90 cents ($90). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Houston-Tampa Bay 46.5
Best Under: Denver-Kansas City 41.5
Best Team Total: Under Carolina 24.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Houston-Tampa Bay 37.5
Over New Orleans-Atlanta 40.5
Over Buffalo-Dallas 39
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: