What bettors need to know: Tuesday's MAC action
2 Replies | 638 ViewsOn 11/07/2011 09:50 PM in NCAA Football
Toledo faces a major letdown situation when Western Michigan visits the Glass Bowl for Senior Night.
The Rockets (5-4, 5-4 ATS) lost a back-and-forth 63-60 home game to Northern Illinois last Tuesday, an emotional defeat that delivered a major blow to their MAC title hopes.
The Broncos (5-4, 5-4 ATS) arrive off of a bye week and haven’t played since Oct. 29.
Toledo won at Western Michigan, 37-24, last September, despite being outgained 416-268.
Toledo opened as a 10-point favorite Sunday at the Las Vegas Wynn. By Monday, the Rockets were giving 11 with even a few 11.5s available offshore.
The underdog has covered the spread in the last five meetings, with the road team covering four straight.
Sophomore Terrance Owens and junior Austin Dantin have split snaps throughout the year, but Dantin played the vast majority of the game against Northern Illinois. He completed 20 of 33 passes for 321 yards and four touchdowns. Dantin had 173 yards with two touchdowns and an interception last year against Western Michigan.
Senior Alex Carder has put up huge numbers for the Broncos, throwing for 2,274 yards already, with 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He threw for 403 yards and four interceptions against Toledo last year.
Temperatures are expected to drop into the low 40s, with light winds and only a slim chance of precipitation.
Toledo starting safety Charles Rancifer was suspended for the Northern Illinois game. Coach Tim Beckman had not said publicly if Rancifer would be back against Western Michigan.
Western Michigan is not reporting any significant injuries.
Over is 20-6-1 in Toledo’s last 27 games as a home favorite and 19-7 overall as a favorite.
WMU is 10-21-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Toledo is 40-23 ATS at the Glass Bowl since 2000.
Northern Illinois (-6) at Bowling Green, 8 p.m.
The Huskies cannot afford to come out flat against an up-and-down Bowling Green team that is expecting to get its leading rusher back and had an extra week to stew over an ugly 27-15 loss at Kent State on Oct. 29.
The Falcons will need to improve their shoddy run defense (91st, allowing 190.78 yards per game) if they want to hang with the Huskies, who are averaging 246.78 rushing yards, ninth most in the nation.
On the bright side, Northern Illinois’ rushing defense is worse, surrendering 202 yards per game.
Northern Illinois hasn’t won in Bowling Green since 1986. The two teams have not met since 2008, a 16-13 Northern Illinois home win.
Northern Illinois opened as a 7-point favorite Sunday at the Las Vegas Wynn. But the line had dropped to -5.5 at a lot of books by Monday afternoon.
The Falcons are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 home games and just 2-5 ATS as a home dog under coach Dave Clawson.
Northern Illinois boast the best QB in the conference in senior Chandler Harnish (1,962 passing yards, 18 TDs, 4 INTs). Harnish also leads the Huskies in rushing.
Sophomore Matt Schilz threw for 400 yards against Kent State. He has 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but has been sacked 20 times.
Bowling Green is expected to get leading rusher Anthon Samuel back. The freshman, who has five 100-yard rushing games, missed the loss to Kent State with a concussion.
Cornerback Jeffrey Garrett, a starter before suffering a hamstring injury in early October, could return, but is considered a game-time decision.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s with a 13 mph South wind and the possibility of late thunder storms moving in during the second half.
Bowling Green is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games in November.
Under is 8-3 in Falcons’ last 11 games as underdogs.
Over is 10-4 in Northern Illinois’ last 14 games overall.
Huskies are on a 10-3-1 ATS run in MAC play.