02/09/2014 12:40 PM
Sunday's Tip Sheet
February 9, 2014
Bettors looking to chase their action on Sunday can finish the week strong with six games in the Association. If you’ve been following the NBA for the past three days, then you’re well aware that big upsets do occur and more often than you think.
Last night we watched Utah upset Miami 94-89 as a 9 ½-point home underdog, cashing money-line tickets as high as plus-425 (Bet $100 to win $425). Perhaps this was a carry-over from Friday when Cleveland dumped Washington 115-113 as a 9 ½-point underdog (ML +400) and Orlando stunned Oklahoma City 103-102 at home as a 9 ½-point ‘dog (ML+425).
Including those results, underdogs have gone 8-11 straight up and 11-6 against the spread since Thursday. Home teams have produced a 13-6 mark during this span and the ‘under’ holds a slight 10-9 edge.
Tonight, you do have a couple games that look like mismatches but based on the above, don’t be shocked to see some fight out of these heavy ‘dogs.
With the help from a few of our VegasInsider.com experts, let’s take a closer look at all six matchups.
New Orleans (22-27 SU, 23-24 ATS) at Brooklyn (22-26 SU, 23-25 ATS)
Despite being short-handed this season, New Orleans has started to show some signs of life by winning seven of its last 10. During this run, the Pelicans have gone 5-0 against teams from the Eastern Conference. Overall, New Orleans is 11-5 versus the East this season.
The Nets opened as six-point favorites over the Pelicans and they’ve performed better in this role lately, going 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS as a home ‘chalk.’
This will be the first meeting between the pair this season. Last season, the Nets swept the two regular season encounters, winning by four and 10 points. The ‘over’ cashed in both games.
Memphis (27-22 SU, 23-25 ATS) at Cleveland (17-33 SU, 20-30 ATS)
Memphis is laying 3 ½-points on the road to the Cavaliers and you could argue that the line is too short. The Grizzlies are playing on zero days rest but they’ve gone 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS in these situations this season, plus they’ve won and covered their last four back-to-back spots.
Also, Memphis has won five in a row against the Eastern Conference and the defense has turned up the intensity since center Marc Gasol returned to action, which has helped the ‘under’ go 11-2 in the last 13.
Cleveland snapped a six-game losing streak on Friday with a 115-113 win over Washington but it hasn’t won back-to-back games since early January. However, the Cavs have been a sound investment lately as a home underdog, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight.
Memphis has won four straight against Cleveland but they haven’t met yet this season.
Cleveland forward Luol Deng (illness) missed the last game and is listed as ‘questionable’ for Sunday.
Dallas (30-21 SU, 29-22 ATS) at Boston (18-33 SU, 25-26 ATS)
The Mavericks opened as four-point road favorites and even though the matchup looks like a possible trap for Dallas. There is a solid betting angle that could have you leaning to the visitor, who has won four in a row. As a road favorite, Dallas has gone 6-2 both SU and ATS this season, which includes a 4-1 record versus teams from the East.
Even though the Celtics have won three straight games, those wins came against the 76ers, Magic and Kings. Total players should make a note that Boston has watched the ‘under’ cash in five straight at TD Garden.
The Mavericks could miss Monta Ellis (hamstring) in the lineup on Sunday but the Celtics are expecting Rajon Rondo to be ready for action.
Sacramento (17-33) at Washington (24-25)
Wizards wrap up a five-game homestand on Sunday and hope to finish with a 3-2 record. After beating Oklahoma City and Portland by double digits, the club dropped back-to-back close calls to the Spurs and Cavaliers.
Can the Wizards stop the Kings as 5 ½-point home favorites? We asked VegasInsider.com Chip Chirimbes and he believes the lean should be to the visitor. He explained, “The Wizards have fought for weeks to get to the .500 mark and once they reached it they have had a letdown and now lost their last two. The Kings who won their last two at home started their road trip with a loss at Boston but are encouraged by having won the last three in the series including the last two in Washington. Get this, the Wizards are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a losing record.”
Sacramento’s Rudy Gay (illness) missed Friday’s loss to Boston and is ‘questionable’ for Sunday.
Indiana (39-10 SU, 31-18 ATS) at Orlando (15-37 SU, 22-30 ATS)
As mentioned above, the Magic are coming off a big upset on Friday against Oklahoma City. The Magic will now look for their third straight victory on Sunday as eight-point ‘dogs against the Pacers. Orlando has only won three in a row once this season, which occurred back in November. On the season, the Magic have gone 12-14 at home.
The Pacers have gone 11-6 SU and 9-8 ATS as road favorites this season. Indiana has gone 2-0 (1-1 ATS) in the first two meetings against Orlando this season, which includes a 98-79 blowout win last Monday at home.
Indiana’s Lance Stephenson (back) has been listed as ‘questionable.’
Philadelphia (15-36) at Los Angeles Clippers (35-18)
Los Angeles opened as a 15-point favorite over Philadelphia and the line could get higher by tip.
Should we expecting another blowout? Chip Chirimbes answered, “After a quick start to the NBA season we are now getting what we originally expected from the 76ers and that is a weak line-up that can't compete on a day to day basis. Philadelphia has dropped their last five games while the Clippers who expect the return of Chris Paul tonight have gone 12-6 in his absence. Even though the 76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings they are actually 8-3 ATS in their
last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.”
The 76ers are 5-14 versus the West this season while the Clippers have gone 16-9 against the East.
Total bettors are starting at a number hovering around 220 points. The Clippers have been scoring in bunches lately and the 76ers’ defense (110 PPG) is the worst in the league.
While the Clippers are expecting point guard Chris Paul to return after missing 18 games but J.J. Redick (back) is ‘questionable’ for Sunday.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: