coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:25 PM

Player to score first TD: Since I mentioned the Hester bet earlier, I should try to find a big price. I'll go with Wilson at 12-1 to get one on a scramble (or sneak). Actually, a nice long shot would be Manning at 50-1 as a naked bootleg would work near the goal line, plus it works as a nice hedge if you have the Seahawks.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-9-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:26 PM

Russell Wilson longest rush OVER 11.5 yards: I think Wilson will scramble several times during the game as a means to avoid throwing into coverage. I'm not sure he'll get to his game total of 30.5 yards (though I think that's a decent play as well), but I think he can get one run of at least 12 yards to win this prop.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-9-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:26 PM

Seahawks OVER 129.5 rushing yards: I'm tempted to take Marshawn Lynch over 92.5 yards, but with my thought that Wilson will add to the total plus Robert Turbin (and perhaps Percy Harvin getting a carry or two as a change of pace), I like the team total better.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-9-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:26 PM

Longest completion by Russell Wilson OVER 38.5 yards: With the emphasis on the run, I believe that will open it up for Wilson to go deep either off play-action or off of a scramble. He should be able to connect on at least one long pass.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-9-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:26 PM

Most penalty yards by Seahawks (minus-120): This might sound counterintuitive, but I expect the Seahawks to "lose" this stat and have more penalty yards -- that's fine as that's how they play (they had the most penalty yards in the NFL this year; Denver had the fourth most). They're very physical, especially with receivers, and those are the defenses that have caused Manning the most problems. So they're going to get flagged at times; I just hope it's not on a play where Seattle gets a turnover.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-9-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:26 PM

Total TD passes by Peyton Manning UNDER 1.5 (plus-175): We're expecting a relatively low-scoring game, so I'm counting on Manning to not put up huge numbers regardless. But even if the Broncos score, maybe they'll get a pass interference call in the end zone and Manning hands the ball off from there to at least take away one scoring pass. Note: Manning had only one TD pass in each of his previous Super Bowl appearances.

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coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:26 PM

Demaryius Thomas UNDER 5 receptions (plus-105): The Broncos have a lot of weapons, but I believe the Seahawks will try to take away this Thomas (Julius Thomas could be harder to contain, especially if he draws a lot of coverage from linebackers). He'll probably draw Richard Sherman, plus the Broncos could likely use him as a decoy on a lot of routes. He might hit for a big play, but I don't expect him to get many targets.

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coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:26 PM

Will either team score in the final 3.5 minutes?: I'll take the "no" at plus-140 and count on the Seahawks to be running out the clock with Lynch or the defense to hold off a late rally as they did against the 49ers.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-9-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:27 PM

Matt Fargo - Russell Wilson Total Rushing Yards in Game

Over 30.5 (-105)
Under 30.5 (-115)

Pick: Over 30.5 -105

This is some solid value on Wilson as he is always a threat to break a big run if not more than one. He was held to just 16 rushing yards in the two playoff games and that is helping with this total. He is averaging 33.7 ypg and has eclipsed 30 yards eight times this season including four of his last six regular season games. He has a good matchup here as Denver is allowing 3.9 ypc on defense but its strength is up the middle. The Broncos allow 4.4 ypc on the left edge and 5.3 ypc on the right edge and Wilson will not be getting his yardage up the gut as he goes outside. He averages 5.6 ypc and depending on the flow of this game, this overall rushing total is easily attainable.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-9-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
02/02/2014 12:27 PM


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