coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:04 PM

Runnin’ Russell Wilson vs. Broncos’ dual-threat weakness

The Broncos faced a handful of mobile QBs this season and gave up some big gains for the most part. Denver allowed Terrelle Pryor to scramble for 85 yards on 13 carries in two meetings, couldn’t stop Alex Smith from rushing for 98 yards on nine attempts in their two games versus the Chiefs, watched Mike Vick tack on 41 yards on eight runs in Week 4’s win over the Eagles, and gave up 29 yards and a rushing TD on four runs to Andrew Luck in the loss to the Colts. And Denver got off the hook against a one-legged RG3 in Week 8.

Russell Wilson’s passing game has declined the past few games, completing only 58 percent of his passes and topping the 200-yard mark just twice in his last six games. But while Wilson’s arm may be a little shaky in the Super Bowl, his legs could do some serious damage to Denver. He’s rushed for 539 yards, picking up 5.6 yards per carry. He’s only added 16 yards on the ground this postseason but was the third-best rushing QB in the NFL – behind Cam Newton and Pryor – this season.

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:05 PM

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:07 PM


I have had a winning year with NFL picks and here we go with the pick for the big game!

Seattle +2.5
OVER 47.5


coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:09 PM

Warren Sapp - who declared bankruptcy in 2012 - is apparently putting all of his eggs in the Peyton Manning basket as he has made a $100,000 bet with rapper Rick Ross on the Denver Broncos

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:10 PM

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:11 PM

Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Broncos

Public perception: The wiseguys are given most of the credit for betting the Broncos from an opening underdog to favoritism, but the general public that also bet early was all over the Broncos, too. While the wiseguys have slowed down, the public consensus number at Insider's PickCenter and other bet-tracking sites have continued to show more than 70 percent of the action coming in on the Broncos. Peyton Manning is obviously a big part of Denver's appeal (the public rarely fades him) and they've been rewarded, as the Broncos are 11-7 ATS on the year (though the Seahawks certainly have their supporters and are an NFL-best 12-6 ATS).

Wiseguys' view: As stated previously, the sharps were on the Broncos early. Some of them probably thought Manning & Co. should be favored all along, while the rest of the movement came as part of the snowball effect. It gained momentum and other wiseguys jumped in along the way as it became more and more likely that they could buy back some on the Seahawks plus-3 at some point if they wanted. The line has gone that high a few times at a few books, but many industry insiders think it'll get pushed there for sure by Sunday. Regardless, the Seahawks also will be a popular teaser play, as you can get them over a touchdown.

Tuley's Take: I have no fear of fading Manning in big games, many times with success (such as Super Bowl XLIV with the Saints), plenty of times without, such as in the AFC title game against the Patriots. But the Seahawks' top-ranked defense gives me the confidence to go against him again. I'm sure you've all heard the stat that there have been four times where the No. 1 offense has faced the No. 1 defense and that the top defense is 3-1 so far, though what's not mentioned as often is it was Manning's Colts that defeated the Bears as the lone exception. Still, I also have more faith in Russell Wilson than Rex Grossman. Manning hasn't been sacked yet this postseason, but I expect that to change or at least the Seahawks' pass rush to pressure him into mistakes. I'm not counting on the weather to have a major impact on the game, but any conditions that are less than ideal can only help Seattle's cause.

The pick: Seahawks

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:12 PM

According to an article on Bleacher Report, Rufus Peabody, a Yale economics graduate and pro gambler, has placed $600,000 of his bankroll on Super Bowl XLVIII prop bets.

Peabody has history with betting Super Bowl props. He reportedly won a lucrative sum in Super Bowl XLIII, starting with Gary Russell to score the first touchdown at 20-to-1.

In a feature from The Sporting News, Peabody said, "If it’s anything more than that it’s luck. It’s entirely quantitative; I don’t use gut feelings. The best bets I make are the ones where I say, 'How would I like this?' My gut would say no, this is an awful bet. But it’s not. It basically shows you can’t trust your gut."

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:12 PM

With that thought in mind, here are some tips on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year's Super Bowl.

The coin toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the coin toss. It's fast and it takes place just prior to kickoff.

Amazingly, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip 14 years in a row until New England and Baltimore prevailed in each of the last two Super Bowls.

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year's coin flip: 50/50.

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:12 PM

With kickoff just hours away for Super Bowl XLVIII we can get a better look at what the forecast will be for Sunday’s big matchup.

Temperatures will be around 40 degrees at kickoff with a 16 percent chance of precipitation. There will be a slight four mph wind blowing towards the South end zone.

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
02/02/2014 12:15 PM

Quarterback action tops player props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons. Signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 26 times in 47 previous Super Bowl games, with Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco taking the honors last year.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVPs.

Denver’s Peyton Manning (+110) and Seattle’s Russell Wilson (+325) lead the MVP charge this year.

In head-to-head proposition competition the LVH favors Manning over Wilson in each of the following categories: -10.5 most completions, -0.5 most touchdown passes, and -78.5 most gross passing yards.

The “Most rushing yards” prop finds Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch -30.5 over Knowshon Moreno.

Most receiving yards finds Denver’s Eric Decker -9.5 over Seattle’s Golden Tate, Denver’s Wes Welker -15.5 over Seattle’s Doug Baldwin, and Denver’s Julius (not Demaryius) Thomas -25.5 over Seattle’s Zach Miller.

My groundswell of support for is for Broncos WR Welker to go Over 54.5 receiving yards as well as Over 5.5 pass receptions.

In two career losing Super Bowl games with Tom Brady and the Patriots, Welker – who figures to be Manning’s primary underneath target - managed to catch seven passes for 60 yards in one game and 11 passes for 107 yards in the other.