cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/03/2011 05:32 PM

Dallas Cowboys Collide With Seattle Seahawks

It’s hard to believe that just one game separates the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks, but that’s the case as they meet Sunday afternoon in Big D.

Oddsmakers certainly believe there’s a big difference in talent with Dallas listed as an 11½-12 point favorite at Don Best. The NFL betting total is 44 points and FOX will broadcast from Cowboys Stadium at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Cowboys (3-4 straight up, 3-3-1 against the spread) were considered ‘tough-luck losers’ earlier in the season with their three defeats to the Jets (27-24), Detroit (34-30) and New England (20-16) all by four points or less.

That tag was thrown out the window last Sunday night in Philadelphia, a 34-7 blowout as 3-point ‘dogs that was over at halftime. The most shocking statistic was the Dallas run defense allowing 239 yards after previously being top-ranked (69.7 YPG).

Owner Jerry Jones said that fans shouldn’t "dwell" on last week’s defeat and there’s still time for a run with the schedule considerably easier the next five weeks. The team also returns home where it last beat St. Louis 34-7 as 14-point favorites, its first home cover in three tries. It did help that Rams quarterback Sam Bradford was out and replaced by A.J. Feeley.

Dallas found a new weapon against St. Louis in rookie running back DeMarco Murray. He exploded for 253 yards and then had 74 yards on just eight carries against Philly. He should continue to be the featured back, especially with Felix Jones (ankle) questionable to miss his third straight game.

Murray will get his touches rushing the ball, but the big advantage this week is in the passing game. Dallas has very good weapons in wideouts Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson, plus tight end Jason Witten. The Seattle cornerbacks have been decimated this season with the current starters Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner.

Quarterback Tony Romo will have guys open and just needs to deliver the ball and not turn it over. His subpar 18-of-35 effort (51.4 percent) for 203 yards last week will be a big motivating factor.

The ‘under’ is 3-0 in Dallas’ last three games and 2-1 at home this year. The ‘over’ was a perfect 8-0 at home for the Boys last season.

Dallas is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite (1-2 ATS this year).

The Seahawks (2-5 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) are in an apparent rebuilding season as a young team, jettisoning veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and others in the offseason as it looked towards the future.

The future has looked very iffy the last two weeks after losses at Cleveland (6-3) and home to Cincinnati (34-12). Charlie Whitehurst started both games at quarterback and proved he’s a backup for a reason. The 137 total yards of offense against Cleveland was an utter embarrassment.

Tarvaris Jackson (chest) came into last game in the second quarter and threw for 323 yards, even if it did take him 40 attempts. That Cincy game was actually a 17-12 margin in the fourth quarter before a field goal, plus a punt and interception return for a touchdown.

Jackson will be back as the starter this week and could give Dallas trouble with both his arm and legs. Seattle has two good receivers with Sidney Rice and rookie Doug Baldwin. They could have success on the outside with Dallas cornerback Mike Jenkins (hamstring) out. Key inside linebacker Sean Lee (wrist) is also out and his speed will be missed in the middle of the field.

Seattle has committed 60 penalties on the year, fourth-most in the league. That needs to be cleaned up by Pete Carroll, but it will be hard with the team youth and his often too relaxed coaching style.

The Seahawks are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS on the road this year. They did have a stunning 36-25 win at the Giants as 10-point ‘dogs on October 9. However, they scored just 6.7 PPG in the other three road games.

These teams last met in 2009 with the Cowboys winning 38-17 at home. They’re 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall (3-2 SU).

Showers are projected on Sunday with temps reaching the lows 70. Dallas would close the roof under that scenario.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/03/2011 05:34 PM

Houston Texans At Home To Meet Cleveland Browns

Competitors in the AFC will square off in NFL Week 9 betting action, as the Houston Texans play host to the Cleveland Browns. Reliant Stadium will be the site for this tussle, and kickoff is set for Sunday at 1:00 p.m. (ET) on CBS.

Cleveland (3-4 SU, 1-4-2 ATS) has had major problems moving the football this year, and it is the main reason why this team is in last place in the stacked AFC North. The Browns rank No. 26 in the league in total yards at 306.0 YPG and No. 28 in scoring at just 15.3 PPG.

Since beating the Indianapolis Colts 27-19 in Week 2, the squad hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game. To make matters worse, the offense only has one touchdown and three field goals over the course of the last three games.

The West Coast offense for Colt McCoy is leading to him throwing the football a ton. He is averaging 40.9 pass attempts per game, but is only completing 57.0 percent and is accounting for a dreadful 5.7 yards per pass attempt.

The running game should get a boost this week with the return of Peyton Hillis. The Madden cover boy has only played in four games this year due to various injuries, and has just 211 yards and two touchdowns.

In the event that Hillis' hamstring isn't fully ready to go, it'll mean a ton of carries for Chris Ogbonnaya in all likelihood. Ogbonnaya was just picked up off of the Texans' practice squad a few weeks ago, and he would be forced into starting duties against his former team on Sunday with the team's leading rusher, Montario Hardesty, out with a calf injury.

The Texans (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) look like they have started to figure it out again. After losing back-to-back games to the Oakland Raiders and Baltimore Ravens, Houston has knocked off the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars in double-digit victories, and the march to the playoffs appears to be back on.

This is another important game for head coach Gary Kubiak, who probably needs to get his team to the postseason to keep his job. The Texans are still atop the AFC South at this point, and there might only be one game for the rest of the season that the team isn't favored in.

As has been the case for the past month, Andre Johnson is still questionable with a hamstring injury. Despite Johnson only playing in four of the team's eight games, he is still second on the squad in receiving yards with 352.

Arian Foster and Ben Tate make up a tremendous backfield duo, and they are taking all of the pressure off Matt Schaub and the passing game. These two have combined for 1,040 rushing yards and another 357 receiving yards this year, totaling six touchdowns.

The Texans and Browns have played each other six times in the past, with the teams splitting the SU and ATS proceedings. Five straight games have stayed 'under' the total.

This week, there is no doubt who the favored team is, as the Texans are getting the nod by 11 points. This is up from the opening number of Houston by nine. The total has been stuck at 41 all week long.

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-70s in Houston on Sunday, which means that the roof should be open at Reliant Stadium as it was last week. There is no threat of rain.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/03/2011 05:35 PM

Cincinnati Bengals Battle NFL Odds at Tennessee Titans

Two teams heading in opposite directions with different quarterback situations will meet on Sunday in Nashville as the struggling Tennessee Titans host the upstart Cincinnati Bengals. The Titans (4-3) managed to break a two-game skid against the winless Indianapolis Colts last week with a 27-10 victory and will now try to end a four-game winning streak for the Bengals (5-2).

Game time is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by CBS. Tennessee opened as a 3-point favorite with the total at 40. Bettors have moved the total up as high as 42 while most sportsbooks still have the Titans at -3.

Both Cincinnati and Tennessee selected quarterbacks in the NFL Draft this past April, but each team has taken a different approach with its rookie. The Bengals decided to start second-round pick Andy Dalton right away, and he has produced wins in five of seven games, with the two losses decided by a combined seven points.

Cincinnati moved up to No. 17 in this week’s Don Best Linemakers Poll.

If Carolina Panthers rookie QB Cam Newton was not playing like an All-Pro in his first year, Dalton would likely be considered for Rookie of the Year honors. The former TCU great started all four years in college and was 36-3 in his final three seasons for the Horned Frogs. Dalton has taken his winning attitude to Cincinnati, with the latest victory coming at Seattle last week, 34-12.

The Bengals defense remains the team’s strength though, ranking fourth in the league in both yards allowed per game (297.4) and points allowed per game (17.6). They held the Seahawks to just 61 rushing yards on 20 carries and have limited opponents to an average of just 85.4 yards per game on the ground, which is the second-best of any team in the NFL.

Ironically, the Titans running game has been their biggest weakness, as former 2,000-yard rusher Chris Johnson has been a shell of himself this year after sitting out training camp due to a contract dispute. Johnson has only 302 yards rushing in six games this year, and he is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry.

Tennessee’s offense has been run by veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who has been solid starting ahead of rookie first-round pick Jake Locker. Hasselbeck has played well in the team’s wins and bad in the losses while Locker has seen very limited action, completing one of his two pass attempts for 12 yards this season.

The Titans are ranked No. 21 in the poll and have won seven of the last 10 meetings with Cincinnati dating back to 1999. However, the Bengals have covered the spread in their past four games overall with the ‘over’ cashing each time, and they are 8-0 vs. the line in their last eight games against AFC opponents.

The ‘over’ is also 6-1 in Cincy’s games this season and 4-2 in the past six meetings.

The weather forecast for Nashville on Sunday is mostly cloudy with a high temperature of 65 and a 10 percent chance of rain.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/03/2011 05:39 PM

Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Week 8 Update

Feral Child and Iced Tea are tied atop the SuperContest standings.
The two most lopsided games on the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest picks card for the eighth stanza in the NFL regular season resulted in a win and a loss, bringing a little more upheaval to the standings for a second consecutive week.

Contestant Feral Child used a perfect 5-0 entry to push into a tie for the current lead with Iced Tea. The tandem has opened a 3-point lead in the SuperContest Standings, the leaders listed below.

Detroit's visit to Denver and the Sunday night game between NFC East rivals Dallas and Philadelphia proved to be the most popular games in the contest. More than 55 percent included the Cowboys, Eagles game on their card, with over 52 percent listing the Lions, Broncos battle in the Mile High City.

In each case, the contest wagers were one-sided; 229 of 273 entries went with Detroit (-1½) while 227 of 287 had Dallas (+3½). Those in the majority for both games ended up level following the Lions' 45-10 rout in Denver and the Eagles' 34-7 prime-time dominance of Dallas.

Another loss for the majority was the matchup in Seattle between the Seahawks and Bengals (-2½). Andy Dalton, along with Cincinnati's defense and special teams, shined in the 34-12 triumph. Contest entries were more than two-to-one (131-61) backing Seattle.

No doubt that the Rams (+13) beating the Saints was the top upset of Week 8, and Pittsburgh's 25-17 win at home as 3-point underdogs to the Patriots and near upsets for Miami and Arizona were also a water cooler topic this week. But the Don Best/Las Vegas Hilton 'Just Cover, Baby' Award in honor of Al Davis for Week 8 goes to...the San Francisco 49ers.

Favored by 8½ at home against the Cleveland Browns, the Niners continued an excellent start to the 2011 campaign with a 20-10 victory. David Akers' 26-yard field goal with less than two minutes left secured the spread payoff for 126 contestants compared to 76 on the Browns.

Here are the present leaders in the LV Hilton SuperContest:


STANDINGS PTS RECORD
Iced Tea 30.0
30-10-0

Feral Child 30.0
29-9-2

SamsWins.com2 27.0
26-12-2

Sans Souci 27.0
26-12-2

R2K2 26.5
25-12-3

Go Big Red 26.5
26-13-1

TexasEx91 26.5
26-13-1

Kokomo 26.5
26-13-1

GameAnalysts.com 26.0
25-13-2

Burl Ives 26.0
26-14-0

Eight with 25.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/03/2011 05:43 PM

London Fade

November 3, 2011

In 2005, the NFL began its International Series which featured a regular season game outside of the United States. The first game watched Arizona beat San Francisco 31-14 from Mexico City, Mexico. Since that game, the venue has switched to London, England.
Starting in 2007, the NFL has now played five games at Wembley Stadium, including last month’s matchup between Chicago and Tampa Bay. The Bears defeated the Buccaneers 24-18 as 1 ½-point favorites, and the combined 42 points dipped ‘under’ the closing total of 44.

Including this year, total players have now seen the ‘under’ go 4-1 (80%) in the five games played at Wembley. Even though the sample is still considered small, it’s something to note for 2012 and future seasons. Sticking with that comment, we did the quick research on teams playing after the London game.

Again, you only have eight games to judge but it doesn’t take a genius to see that there is definitely a hangover affect.

Oct. 28, 2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10

Following Game:
Giants 20 vs. Cowboys 31 (New York +2, OVER 48)
Dolphins 10 vs. Bills 13 (Miami +3, UNDER 41)

Betting Results: 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Oct. 26, 2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32

Following Game:
Saints 20 at Falcons 34 (New Orleans +1, OVER 51)
Chargers 20 vs. Chiefs 19 (San Diego -14.5, UNDER 47)

Betting Results: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Oct. 25, 2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7

Following Game:
Patriots 27 vs. Dolphins 17 (New England -10.5, UNDER 47)
Buccaneers 38 vs. Packers 28 (Tampa Bay +9.5, OVER 43)

Betting Results: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Oct. 31, 2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16

Following Game:
49ers 23 vs. Rams 20 (San Francisco -4.5, OVER 38.5)
Broncos 49 vs. Chiefs 29 (Denver +1, OVER 44)

Betting Results: 2-0 SU 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U

When you tally up the Betting Results, you can see that teams have gone 5-3 straight up in their following game back in the States. However, the record against the spread is just 2-5-1 (29%). The ‘over’ has gone 5-3 in these games. If you delve into the numbers further, you can see that only once (New Orleans – 2008) did these teams have to travel off the London bye.

This week, both the Buccaneers and Bears will be on the road when they visit New Orleans and Philadelphia respectively.

Chicago is 1-2 both SU and ATS away from home this season, but the lone win was technically on the road – London. Tampa Bay is 1-1 on the road, rallying past Minnesota (24-20) in Week 2 and then getting blasted by San Francisco (48-3) in Week 5. Also, make a note that the Saints will be looking to avenge a 26-20 road loss to the Bucs on Oct. 16.

Coincidentally, the Saints and Eagles are both laying comparable numbers (8 to 9) this week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/03/2011 05:45 PM

Tip Sheet - Week 9

November 3, 2011

Following a week in which only one game involved both teams above .500, the Week 9 card showcases six games with clubs owning better than .500 marks. We'll take a look at the five games during the day, leading up to the Steelers/Ravens showdown on Sunday night. The AFC East can have a three-way tie by days' end if the Jets win and Patriots lose, but New York will be tested when it heads to Buffalo for an important division battle.

Jets at Bills (-1 ½, 44) - 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo is not letting up after a quick start as the Bills go for their sixth win of the season on Sunday. Chan Gailey's squad took care of the Redskins in Toronto last week, 23-0 as four-point favorites, bouncing back from a three-point loss to the Giants prior to the bye week. Now, Buffalo gets a shot at the other New York team, as the Jets own a surprising 0-3 SU/ATS mark on the highway.

The Jets' defense has been exploited in road losses at Oakland, Baltimore, and New England by allowing 32.7 ppg in those three games. Buffalo's offense has shined at home with three efforts of at least 30 points, while the 23 points put up against Washington was played on a neutral field. Both these teams are great 'over' plays this season with a combined 11-3 mark, as each meeting last season sailed 'over' the total. The Bills are playing with revenge this week after getting swept by the Jets in 2010, including a humiliating 38-14 home defeat as 6 ½-point underdogs.

Buccaneers at Saints (-8 ½, 50) - 1:00 PM EST

These two teams met up three weeks ago in Tampa, as the Bucs held off the Saints, 26-20 as six-point home 'dogs. New Orleans' roller-coaster ride since that loss has seen its thrills and spills, including a 62-7 pounding of the hapless Colts in front of a nationally-televised audience. A week later, the Saints couldn't get out of their own way in an ugly 31-21 setback at previously winless St. Louis, as New Orleans closed as a 13 ½-point road favorite.

The Bucs have been up and down all season, including a 48-3 blowout loss at San Francisco, while owning a 2-0 record inside the NFC South. Tampa Bay returns to the field after falling to Chicago in London, 24-18, two weeks ago to drop to 4-3. The Saints enter this contest with an amazing 0-6 ATS mark the last six games as a home favorite against division foes, including two non-covers against the Bucs in this span. In spite of Tampa Bay's defeat at San Francisco, the Bucs still own a solid 8-1 ATS record the last nine contests as a road underdog.

Bengals at Titans (-3, 41 ½) - 4:05 PM EST

Cincinnati continues to take care of business, coming off a wire-to-wire victory at struggling Seattle as short road favorites. The Bengals look for their sixth victory on the season as Marvin Lewis' team heads to Tennessee. The Titans bounced back from an embarrassing home loss to Houston with a rout of the winless Colts last week. Tennessee is still within striking distance inside the watered-down AFC South, but three of its four wins have come against also-rans (Denver, Cleveland, and Indianapolis).

The Bengals weren't great pointspread plays the last few seasons with Carson Palmer at quarterback, but rookie Andy Dalton has led Cincinnati to an impressive 6-1 ATS mark. All four teams in the AFC North rank in the top-five in the league in total defense, as the Bengals sit in fourth allowing 297 yards a game. However, that great defense isn't resulting in many 'under' plays, as the 'over' is 6-1 in Cincinnati's seven games this season. These two old AFC Central rivals are meeting for the first time since 2008, when the Titans cruised past the Bengals, 24-7 as one -point road 'dogs.

Giants at Patriots (-9, 51) - 4:15 PM EST

A rematch of one of the greatest finishes in Super Bowl history takes place in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon as New England attempts to rebound against New York. The Patriots lost for the second time this season after getting tripped up at Pittsburgh, 25-17 as short road 'chalk.' The Giants head to Gillette Stadium following a close-shave victory over the winless Dolphins last Sunday, but failed to cover as double-digit favorites.

Tom Coughlin's club is starting a brutal stretch that includes games against the 49ers, Eagles, Saints, Packers, and Cowboys over the next two months. The Giants will have to work on improving their ATS mark against AFC opponents as Big Blue is 1-5-1 ATS the previous seven interconference games. Meanwhile, the Patriots are just 2-4 ATS the last six contests following a loss, including a win at Oakland in Week 4 after getting tripped up at Buffalo.

Packers (-5 ½, 51) at Chargers - 4:15 PM EST

The last unbeaten team in the NFL travels out west seeking an 8-0 start as Green Bay heads to San Diego. The Packers are fresh off the bye week as Mike McCarthy's squad has won 14 straight games dating back to last December. The Chargers come into this matchup off the disappointing overtime setback at Kansas City as three-point road favorites, while Philip Rivers tries to put his late fumble in regulation in the rear-view mirror.

San Diego starts Week 9 in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC West with Kansas City and Oakland, while looking to bounce back from a pair of squandered leads in road losses to the Chiefs and Jets. The Bolts have beaten one team (Chiefs last season) that owned a .500 record or better at the time they played since last December, a span of 12 games. Green Bay owns a strong 6-2 ATS record in the previous eight games away from Lambeau Field, while the two ATS losses came as heavy favorites at Carolina and Minnesota this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/03/2011 05:47 PM

Week 9 Preview: Giants at Patriots

NEW YORK GIANTS (5-2)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -8, Total: 52.5

The Giants and Patriots meet Sunday for the first time since New York’s Super Bowl XLII upset over 18-0 New England following the 2007 season.

Four years ago, the Giants front four smothered Tom Brady and the Patriots en route to a championship. New York still has one of the best pass rushes in the NFL (league-high 26 sacks), especially now that Jason Pierre-Paul (8.5 sacks) has emerged as an All- Pro-caliber performer. Brady should be better prepared this time around though, and a thin Giants secondary will have difficulty matching up with WR Wes Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. New England has won 20 straight home games in the regular season, going 12-7-1 ATS (63%) in those contests. The pick here is NEW ENGLAND to win and cover.

This pair of highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support the Patriots:

Bill Belichick is 40-18 ATS (69.0%, +20.2 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.5, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 3*).

N.Y. GIANTS are 1-9 ATS (10.0%, -8.9 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was N.Y. GIANTS 25.5, OPPONENT 31.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Offensively, the Giants have limited turnovers this year and QB Eli Manning should be able capitalize against a weak Patriots pass defense. Manning is third in the NFL in QB rating (102.1) and he averaged 346 passing YPG in October. His team has new-found depth at receiver with Victor Cruz emerging with 480 receiving yards and four scores in his past five games. They’ll need that depth considering top WR Hakeem Nicks is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Despite the high level that Manning and the passing offense have been performing at, the Giants rushing attack has been dreadful. They rank third-to-last in the NFL with 85.6 rushing YPG, having yet to reach 125 yards in any game this year. Ahmad Bradshaw has 440 rushing yards and 5 TD, but Brandon Jacobs has been slowed by a knee injury and has contributed very little this year at 3.0 yards per carry.

Despite the QB-pressuring prowess New York’s D-Line brings to the table, the run-stop unit ranks 28th in the NFL with 130 rushing YPG allowed. The passing defense ranks 13th (225 YPG), but the Giants have faced just one opponent all year ranked among the league’s top-12 passing offenses (Philadelphia, 9th). The Patriots, who are throwing for 325 YPG, the second-highest mark in football, will certainly test the G-Men.

New England’s offense wasn’t its usual, unstoppable self in last week’s loss at Pittsburgh. The offensive line failed to prevent the Steelers from pressuring Brady, who failed to reach 200 passing yards for the first time this season. Brady was sacked five times in the Super Bowl loss to New York, completing 29-of-48 passes for 266 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. With the Giants poor rushing defense, New England needs to run the football more, especially from top RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis who tried to play through his toe injury last week, but had just five carries for nine yards. Green-Ellis has 400 yards and 5 TD for the season. If Green-Ellis is still limited, 35-year-old Kevin Faulk, who rushed for 32 yards on six carries in his season debut last week, could be the featured back again. RBs Danny Woodhead and Stevan Ridley did not carry the football last week, partly because New England only had the ball for 20:38.

The biggest problem for New England continues to be its league-worst pass defense allowing 323 YPG this season. After cutting CB Leigh Bodden, one the better defensive backs, the Patriots will have even more problems stopping the red-hot Manning. Star LB Jerod Mayo returned to action last week after missing two games with a knee injury, but he didn’t play his usual heavy workload. He hopes to start this week. New England has won four straight regular-season meetings with New York, but three of those victories came by three points or less.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/04/2011 05:44 PM

NFL Update For Sunday's Games

There has been little line movement on the Ravens and Steelers battle.
Four key divisional matchups highlight the Week 9 slate of the NFL, but none are bigger than the Sunday Night Football clash of AFC North titans when the Baltimore Ravens visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in a rematch of the season opener. The Ravens (5-2) won that game 35-7 at home and have struggled lately while the Steelers (6-2) have been coming on strong and can take control of the division with a victory at Heinz Field.

Pittsburgh lost the first meeting at home to Baltimore last year sans quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who had to sit out due to a four-game suspension for breaking the league’s personal conduct policy in the offseason. However, the Steelers seized the division by beating the Ravens on the road in the second meeting, which gave them home-field advantage when they met for a third time in the playoffs.

Roethlisberger has come up huge in Pittsburgh’s last two games, throwing for more than 360 yards in wins over the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots. The Steelers are No. 4 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll and have a chance to bump Baltimore from the No. 3 spot.

The Ravens won the first meeting this year easily as 1-point home favorites and find themselves as 3-point road underdogs according to the Don Best odds screen this time around after failing to cover the spread in their last two games. There has been little line movement so far, and the teams have split the past six meetings, including last year’s postseason game.

Another important divisional matchup takes place in the AFC East, where the Buffalo Bills (5-2) host the New York Jets (4-3). The Bills are tied with the New England Patriots atop the division and can move two games up on the Jets with a victory on Sunday. The Patriots suffered a 25-17 setback at Pittsburgh last week and lost at Buffalo in Week 4.

The Bills opened as 1 ½-point favorites and have been bet up as high as -2 ½ at some sportsbooks while the total has been bet down from the opener of 45 to 44. New York is coming off a bye after beating San Diego and Miami at home, which followed a three-game losing streak. The Jets have won the last three meetings with Buffalo both straight-up and against the spread and are tied for No. 6 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, three spots ahead of the Bills.

In the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints (5-3) will try to get back on track at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3). The Saints fell two spots to No. 5 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll following a disappointing 31-21 road loss to the St. Louis Rams as double-digit favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs had their bye last week after losing 24-18 in London to the Chicago Bears. New Orleans opened as 7 ½-point favorites and are up to -9 at some sportsbooks.

Finally, Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos (2-5) head to Oakland for an AFC West battle with the Raiders (4-3) who are in a three-way tie with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers atop the division. Tebow played terrible last week in a 45-10 home loss to the Detroit Lions and returns to the site of his first career NFL start. The Broncos lost that game 39-23 and have moved from 7-point underdogs to +9 as bettors have jumped off the Tebow bandwagon.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/04/2011 05:46 PM

Update For Monday Night's Bears At Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles opened at -7 and that number has been raised.
The Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles have very little wiggle room in their battle for a playoff spot down the stretch, and both need this win Monday night in Philadelphia to keep pace in the NFC.

After opening as a 7-point favorite at home, the Philadelphia Eagles were eventually bet all the way up to about a 9-point favorite at many books. The line movement seems to have enticed Chicago backers to take the points. While some books are still posting a 9-point spread with additional chalk on the Bears, most books have settled on Philadelphia as a 7 ½ or 8-point favorite.

Two of the major pieces of Philadelphia’s blowout 34-7 win over Dallas, LeSean McCoy and Brent Celek, both missed practice Thursday. Both are still probable to play Sunday; McCoy left practice with a stomach flu and Celek was out with a hip contusion. While McCoy should be fully recovered by Sunday, Celek’s injury is worth keeping in mind. He’ll certainly play through the pain, but a painful hip contusion could limit his mobility. Celek led the team in receptions (seven) and receiving yards (94) last week.

Chicago still hasn’t decided whether or not they will start rookie offensive tackle Gabe Carimi who has been out since Week 2 with a knee injury, but they are ready to plug Earl Bennett right back in at wide receiver. Bennett had also been out since Week 2 (chest injury), and his return should give the Bears’ offense a big boost. Not only is he Chicago’s most experienced wideout, but he also has a rapport with Jay Cutler and is a trusted target on third down. Chicago is currently 29th in the league on third down, converting just 29.9 percent of the time.

Andy Reid improved to 13-0 coming off of a bye week in last week’s impressive win, but the question that will be answered this week is whether or not that was just one great game plan or a sign of things to come moving forward. Philadelphia’s only other wins of the season came in their season opener against St. Louis and in an ugly turnover-laden game against Washington. McCoy rushed for 185 yards and two touchdowns last week; can he have another big day against a Chicago defense that prides itself on stopping the run (ranked 12th with 108.7 rushing yards against per game)?

Weather reports still indicate clear skies on Monday, with a temperature of 62 during the day cooling down to 49 come game time at 8:30 p.m. (ET).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24961 Followers:33
11/06/2011 10:14 AM

Week 9 NFL Trends & Angles

We have now reached Week 9 of the NFL season, and this week features one of the wackiest lines we have seen all season.
The whole world watched the Kansas City Chiefs upset the San Diego Chargers Monday night (that was actually a case of San Diego fumbling the game away, but we digress), putting the Chiefs in a first place tie in the AFC West. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are one of two winless teams in the NFL at 0-7 after blowing a second half lead to the New York Giants.
Now, Kansas City is home vs. Miami this week. The Chiefs are riding a four-game winning streak since an 0-3 start, they beat up on bad teams at home all year last season en route to winning the division, and their only home loss this season came opening week vs. what has turned out to be a good Buffalo team.
And the current line in this contest is Kansas City -4! What the…? Are the oddsmakers giving bettors an early Christmas gift or are they laying a bear-sized trap?
Well…

Play on any single-digit road underdog following a road loss (122-79-5, 60.7% ATS since 2002): This angle makes sense from a contrarian viewpoint because it combines two situations that bettors like to avoid, with one being betting on losing teams and another being teams on road trips. The fact that the team is now a dog usually means that it is inferior, so books are able to pad these lines a bit, and let's face it, finding something that is over 60 percent in 201 decisions in almost 10 years is remarkable. This angle has one play this week, and if you do not know who it is, you are not paying attention. (Miami +4)

Play against any favorite that just defeated a good team and is now facing a bad team (37-24-1, 60.7% ATS since 2002): For the purposes of our Trends & Angles, a good team is defined as a team that has won at least 12 of its previous 18 games while a bad team is defined as a team that has won no more than six of its previous 18 games. This angle is like the very definition of the Letdown Theory, as teams that just put a lot of energy into beating good teams often take a breather when they are favored over a bad team the following week. This angle has turned up three times this season and it is 3-0 ATS. There is one qualifier this week, and surprise, it is Miami +4 at Kansas City.

Play on any road underdog coming off of six or more consecutive straight up losses (78-52-1, 60.0% ATS since 1985): We went all the way back to 1985 to make this sample size as meaningful as possible, and the results are quite good. These are teams that most squares would never bet their hard earned money on but that sharps love, as they are almost always getting added line value. Do we really need to tell you who the only qualifier is this week? (Miami +4)

Play on any team that lost its last game by 20 or more points at home (101-75-2, 57.4% ATS since 2002): Professional teams do not like to get embarrassed, especially at home, and they usually come back strong in their next game. This angle won again in Week 8 with Tennessee covering vs. the Colts after getting blown out at home by Houston the prior week. There are three qualifying plays this week (and no, none of them involve Miami), but unfortunately, two of them are against each other with Denver facing Oakland. That still leaves one play though, the Seattle Seahawks +11½.

Play on any underdog that lost its last game by 28 or more points (77-51-2, 60.2% ATS since 2002): This angle combines the concepts of teams not liking to get embarrassed and bettors not wanting to bet on those teams immediately after those said embarrassments. There is one qualifying play for Week 9, the Denver Broncos +9.

Play on any road favorite coming off of a bye week (35-13-2, 72.9% ATS since 2002): You usually have to be a very good team to be a road favorite, and having an added week of preparation time has made the road chalk great investments over the years. This angle is only 2-2 in 2011, but it gets two chances to bounce back this week with Atlanta -7 at Indianapolis and Green Bay -5½ at San Diego.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (75-47-2, 61.5% ATS since 2008): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, Bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on the results of the last three years, they may have over-adjusted the lines especially in this specific case of conference games where the visiting teams are fairly familiar with their next opponents. There are four big qualifiers for this angle this week: Cincinnati +3, Cleveland +10½, Chicago +9 (Monday) and our Trends & Angles Play of the Week, Miami +4

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: