cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/02/2011 11:02 PM

Tech Trends - Week 9

November 1, 2011

Sunday, Nov. 6 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Colts no covers last 4 TY and only 2-6 vs. line in 2011. Indy "over" 6-2 TY. Falcons 10-4 vs. spread last 14 away (though only 1-3 TY) and "over" 6-3 last 9 away. "Over" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trend.

Bucs have won last two at NO as road dog. Visitor 4-1 SU and vs. line in series since 2009 although host Bucs won earlier meeting TY. Bucs 12-3 vs. line last 15 as true visitor. But Saints have covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 at Superdome and are 2-0 vs. line off SU loss TY. Slight to Saints, based on recent trends.

Browns only 2-13 vs. spread last 14 on board. Texans "under" 6-2 TY, Cleveland "under" last 3 TY. Texans and "under," based on recent trends.

Note that underdog team 6-1 vs. line in Bills games TY. Jets no covers first three TY and last four overall on road. Jets "over" 13-1 last 14 away. Bills "over" 6-1 last 7 since late 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Sparano has also dropped 3 of last 5 vs. number away but still 19-8 last 27 vs. line on road. Sparano also "under" 6-1 TY. Chiefs have covered last 5 after Monday win over SD. Slight to Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
Harbaugh 6-0-1 vs. line TY. Skins, "under" 10-4 last 14 since mid 2010. 49ers, based on recent trends.

Pete Carroll has covered last two on road after dropping 9 of first 11 vs. spread away. Dallas "over" 9-3 last 12 at home, Pete Carroll "over" 7-2 last 9 away. Dallas 2-7 as home chalk since LY. "Over" and Slight to Seahawks, based on "totals"" and team trends.


Sunday, Nov. 6 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Raiders have won and covered last four in series. Oakland also 9-2 vs. line last 11 in series. "Overs" 7-2 last nine meetings. Denver "over" 21-7 last 27 since late 2009. "Over" and Raiders, based on "totals" and team trends.

Bengals have covered last four and six of last seven TY. Titans just 5-10 vs. spread last 15 as chalk. Bengals, based on team trends.


Sunday, Nov. 6 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Rams 1-6 vs. line TY, also 2-9 last 11 on board. Slight to Cards, based on recent Rams woes.

First non-preseason meeting between these two since Super Bowl XLII. Belichick "under" last two TY but still "over" 20-6 last 26, Giants "over" 5-2 TY. Couglin 14-7 last 21 as road dog since late 2006. "Over" and Giants, based on "totals" and team trends.

Pack 7-2 last 9 vs. line on road. Norv 10-6 as dog since 2007 and "under" 7-1 last 8 as host. Packers and Slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Sunday, Nov. 6 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

No team has swept the pointspread decisions in this series since 2006, before Harbaugh or Tomlin had arrived in their current jobs. Ravens won and covered 35-7 in opener. "Overs" 8-4 last 12 in series. Harbaugh only 5-8 last 13 as dog. Ravens however are 4-1-1 vs. line last six reg.-season visits to Heinz Field. Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.




Monday, Nov. 7 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Bears have won and covered the last two years in series and have won and covered last two as well TY. Bears "under" 7-1-2 last 10 away. Bears and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.








Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/02/2011 11:06 PM

Trending: NFL rookie quarterbacks

One of the developing story lines from the first part of the NFL season is the emergence of four starting rookie quarterbacks. Led by Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, these young signal callers have been quite successful ATS and there has been a surprisingly strong lean toward the Over in their games:
Player ATS Over-Under
Andy Dalton, CIN 6-1 6-1
Cam Newton, CAR 5-3 5-3
Christian Ponder, MIN 2-0 1-1
Blaine Gabbert, JAC 2-3-1 1-5
TOTAL 15-7-1 (68%) 13-10 (57%)

If you discount the three head-to-head matchups between these rookies (Bengals-Jaguars Over, Jaguars-Panthers Under and Vikings-Panthers Under), the percentages increase to 75% ATS (12-4) and 65% Over (11-6).

A year ago, we saw a similar ATS trend in the first half of the season, but the totals skewed toward the Under, which would be the conventional wisdom for games involving a starting rookie quarterback (through November 7, 2010):
Player ATS Over-Under
Sam Bradford, STL 6-2 2-6
Colt McCoy, CLE 2-1 3-0
Jimmy Clausen, CAR 1-1 0-2
Max Hall, ARI 1-2 2-1
TOTAL 10-6 (63%) 7-9 (44%)


However, the second half of last season was not as kind to starting rookie quarterbacks, while there was a slight increase in their Over percentage:
Player ATS Over-Under
Tim Tebow, DEN 2-1 2-1
Sam Bradford, STL 4-4 4-4
John Skelton, ARI 2-2 3-1
Joe Webb, MIN 1-1 0-2
Jimmy Clausen, CAR 2-5 3-3
Rusty Smith, TEN 0-1 0-1
Colt McCoy, CLE 0-5 3-2
TOTAL 11-19 (37%) 15-14 (52%)


Whether it was the odds makers, the grind of a grueling 16-game season, or other factors that caught up with the starting rookie quarterbacks, the significant drop-off is worth noting as we track the progress of this year’s crop of starting rookie signal callers.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/02/2011 11:09 PM

NFL Week 8 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

When I meet people they always want to know if I bet on the sports I write about.

They want to hear an emphatic yes. They want to hear it’s easy. They want to hear I make loads of money doing it.

I don’t. And it’s harder than hell just to be average.

I actually don’t encourage people to gamble. I tell them that it’s incredible entertainment but unless they can dive into a pool of disposable income like Scrooge McDuck, don’t get too serious about sports betting.

I tried not to get too serious this year. But after a pretty good start it was hard to maintain that mindset.

I wasn’t sharp, but I was making paper cuts as an ordinary bettor. People started to notice and my confidence started to grow. Then Sunday came with a cold dose of reality. It’ll be tough to go to sleep tonight.

We’ve all had moments like this. You build a decent bankroll and then donate half of it to the Dark Side in one agonizing afternoon.

I’m not going to lie, I’m gun shy going into next week. But that doesn’t mean I won’t get back on the horse.

That’s the just game we play. But it’s a good thing I still have a day job.

Titanic team total

When you have an under bet you don’t want NFL RedZone cutting to highlights often.

I hoped we wouldn’t have to stomach much of the Colts-Titans game because a) Curtis Painter was on the field and b) I had under 26 for the Tennessee team total.

I really thought the Titans were going to try and discover their run game this week. Force-feeding CJ2K meant steady ticks off the clock.

And I thought the Indy defense would come out to play after giving up a hundred points last week. And you know what? It did…by Colts standards.

The defense only allowed 20. I would have cashed if not for a blocked punt recovered in the end zone. Too bad team totals aren’t graded like fantasy where defensive and special teams scores don’t count.

Of course I was tormented by the gambling gods until five minutes left when the Titans scored a garbage touchdown off a short field. Those were their only points in the second half and I missed the push by one. FML.

Giant disgrace

There’s just no way to sugarcoat it: The Giants play down to their competition.

I just think they’re a little too cocky. They thought they could slap around the Seahawks without Tuck and Jacobs and lost as double-digit chalk. Then they needed major comebacks against the Cards and Dolphins.

New York should be much better than it’s been -- on the field and at the wagering window. Yes, there are holes in the defense but the NFL’s best pass rush makes up for a lot. When it’s engaged there aren’t many lines that can stop it.

And I don’t understand why the offense still attempts to be a run-oriented. Eli is an elite quarterback and he has one of the best wideout trios in the game. I know you have to keep the defense honest with the run, blah, blah, blah, but why don’t you try chucking it around like all the other top teams in the league.

Damned “70-year-old man”

They say there’s holding on every play. That may be true, but they rarely call holding on receivers. Steve Smith and I aren’t happy with the blown call in the closing seconds at Carolina.

Some idiot zebra 20 yards away tossed a flag well after the alleged hold. The penalty negated a first-down run by Sir Newton, which would have set them up at the two-yard line. He would have scored on the next play, the Kittens would have won by four and I would have avoided a disastrous day.

Steve is trying to sidestep a fine with sarcasm but he wants to fight that old man, you can see it in his eyes

The Leans

Bengals +3 at Titans - The Gingerbread Kid and his cronies continue to defy the odds.

Niners -3.5 at Redskins - Why wouldn’t we start fading the Fightin’ Becks every week?

Giants +9 at Patriots - I said the G-Men play down to their competition, I didn’t say they should be a two-score dog. The last time they were, they beat the Eagles outright.

NFL Record: 21-11-2

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/02/2011 11:12 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Steelers look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a favorite. Pittsburgh is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 6

Game 405-406: Atlanta at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.222; Indianapolis 121.771
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 13 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7); Under

Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.865; New Orleans 140.290
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 8; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-8); Over

Game 409-410: Cleveland at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.199; Houston 136.126
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 11; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+11); Under

Game 411-412: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.337; Buffalo 137.524
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1); Over

Game 413-414: Miami at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.618; Kansas City 132.51
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 8; 38
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: San Francisco at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 136.328; Washington 129.263
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7; 43
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 417-418: Seattle at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 124.075; Dallas 138.686
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Dallas by 11 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-11 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Denver at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 125.607; Oakland 132.120
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Oakland by 9; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+9); Over

Game 421-422: Cincinnati at Tennessee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 130.348; Tennessee 130.191
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3); Over

Game 423-424: St. Louis at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.945; Arizona 126.660
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 425-426: NY Giants at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 128.575; New England 143.258
Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 8 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8 1/2); Over

Game 427-428: Green Bay at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.845; San Diego 134.478
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-5); Under

Game 429-430: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.568; Pittsburgh 140.963
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7

Game 431-432: Chicago at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.620; Philadelphia 138.965
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9; 47
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+9); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/02/2011 11:13 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

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Sunday, November 6

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ATLANTA (4 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 8) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 4) at HOUSTON (5 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (4 - 3) at BUFFALO (5 - 2) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 1) at WASHINGTON (3 - 4) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (2 - 5) at DALLAS (3 - 4) - 11/6/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
DALLAS is 74-51 ATS (+17.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 5) at OAKLAND (4 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 25-57 ATS (-37.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 4-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (5 - 2) at TENNESSEE (4 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (1 - 6) at ARIZONA (1 - 6) - 11/6/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 116-151 ATS (-50.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 116-151 ATS (-50.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 60-87 ATS (-35.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 84-118 ATS (-45.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (5 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 11/6/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 27-48 ATS (-25.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (7 - 0) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 3) - 11/6/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 2) - 11/6/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-3 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 7

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CHICAGO (4 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) - 11/7/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 145-104 ATS (+30.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CHICAGO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/02/2011 11:14 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Sunday, 11/6/2011

ATLANTA at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 17-7 ATS in dome games
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-0 Over vs. non-conference

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 8-1 ATS as road underdog
NEW ORLEANS: 0-6 ATS at home vs. division

CLEVELAND at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 5-1 Under vs. Houston
HOUSTON: 8-22 ATS off home win

NY JETS at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
NY JETS: 13-1 Over in road games
BUFFALO: 6-1 Over in all games

MIAMI at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 6-0 Under off a SU loss
KANSAS CITY: 13-29 ATS vs. AFC East

SAN FRANCISCO at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 6-0-1 ATS this season
WASHINGTON: 6-0 Under after allowing 6+ yards/play BB games

SEATTLE at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 3-15 ATS as road underdog
DALLAS: 29-13 ATS off loss by 14+

DENVER at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
DENVER: 10-2 Over after allowing 40+ points
OAKLAND: 13-4 ATS off ATS loss

CINCINNATI at TENNESSEE, 4:05 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 6-1 Over in all games
TENNESSEE: 19-7 ATS as home favorite of 3 pts or less

ST LOUIS at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 7-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
ARIZONA: 6-0 Under vs. St. Louis

NY GIANTS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 6-0 Over on turf
NEW ENGLAND: 16-5 Over as favorite

GREEN BAY at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 8-0 Under as road favorite of 7 pts or less
SAN DIEGO: 0-5 ATS vs. Green Bay

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH, 8:20 PM ET NBC
BALTIMORE: 6-1 Under after game w/ 50+ pass attempts
PITTSBURGH: 6-0 ATS playing w/ revenge


Monday, 11/7/2011

CHICAGO at PHILADELPHIA, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
CHICAGO: 11-1 Under as road underdog
PHILADELPHIA: 15-2 Under after gaining 7+ yards/play

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/02/2011 11:15 PM

NFL

Week 9

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Atlanta is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 17-8 SU in their last 25 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 18 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Seattle

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. KANSAS CITY
Miami is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. WASHINGTON
San Francisco is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Washington
San Francisco is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Denver is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Denver

4:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

4:15 PM
NY GIANTS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing New England
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games at home

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis

4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing San Diego
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games

8:20 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games when playing Baltimore


Monday, November 7

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/02/2011 11:17 PM

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF

LSU at Alabama -5 ---> -4.5

Right now most shops are sending out Alabama -4.5 and Fuhrman isn’t so sure the action is moving the right way.

“Public, public, public,” Fuhrman says. “For whatever reason the betting public believes they're pulling a quick one on the books grabbing LSU with the points and I'm not sure I see it quite the same way.

"Nick Saban off a bye playing at home with the best player on the field in Heisman hopeful Trent Richardson seems an awfully intriguing public fade in my opinion.”

*Also, if you haven't already noticed, we're following this game's line moves all week with this story. Check back for the latest as the kickoff nears.

Texas Tech at Texas -10.5 ---> -14

Texas Tech is 3-3 against the spread in its last six and is just coming off an embarrassing outright loss at home to Iowa State as fat 15.5-point favorites. Can you blame early bettors for jumping on the Longhorns?

"If anyone out there has figured out Texas Tech please let me know," Fuhrman says. "This team needed late heroics to squeak by Nevada early in the year yet somehow goes into Norman and smacks the Sooners. Last week's loss is still a head scratcher since we figured they'd be flat against Iowa State, but losing 41-7 at home had a major wow factor. Texas is Texas and while I'm still not buying the Horns as a consistent double-digit chalk in conference, the bettors are telling us otherwise."

Vanderbilt at Florida -11 ---> -13.5

Vanderbilt has dropped two of its last three, but has also managed to cover the number in three straight. Still, bettors don't seem convinced the Commodores can hang with a battle-tested Florida club.

"The Gators have run through an SEC gauntlet lately, playing the conference's best teams in succession, Fuhrman says. John Brantley appears to be healthier than he's been and Vandy probably was overvalued by bookmakers on the opener based on their recent home results.

"I'll be impressed if the Commodores answer the bell in the Swamp Saturday after the heartbreaking loss to Arkansas one week ago."


NFL

Seattle at Dallas -13 ---> -11.5

This was supposed to be "the year" for the Cowboys, right? So far, they've been nothing but a headache for bettors, going just 2-4 against the number over their last six. The real issue here is Seattle is just as inconsistent at 3-3-1 against the number.

"I'm not sure what I'd call the Cowboys effort Sunday night but it sure wasn't one that makes you believe they're legitimate NFC contenders," Fuhrman says about Dallas' 34-7 blowout loss at Philadelphia. "Seattle has shown nothing to the betting public over the last few weeks. However, in this instance the double-digit points seem attractive given Dallas' sluggish effort in Week 8."

Miami at Kansas City -5 ---> -4

For all you bettors that left the Chiefs for dead when Jamaal Charles went down, take notice. Kansas City has covered the number in five straight games and better than 71 percent of *********** Consensus bettors were siding with the Chiefs as of Wednesday evening.

"Congrats to the K.C. Chiefs for making the AFC west a three horse race," Fuhrman says. "I'll be even more impressed if they go out and handle business against an NFL doormat in Miami following two huge wins over their division rivals. Situational handicappers will back Miami here and you see that in the move, while the betting public will be late arrivals on the K.C. bandwagon eager to lay points with a pedestrian offense."

Denver at Oakland -7 ---> -8.5

Well, Tebowmania sure was fun while it lasted. While the Denver quarterback has turned from Broncos savior to whipping boy, this week's line has followed suit.

"Tebow factor in reverse is what we're seeing here," Fuhrman says. "The luster has apparently worn off Denver and bettors are eager to oppose the Broncos' offense with a Carson Palmer led Raider team that will most likely be without the services of Darren McFadden. If the Raiders are serious about winning their division, they should be eager to beat up on the Broncos but do they have the firepower to do so?"

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/03/2011 05:24 PM

One-Win Wonders: Arizona Hosts St. Louis Rams

Arizona has one eight of the last nine matchups with the St. Louis Rams.
There won’t be any playoff implications when the Arizona Cardinals host the St. Louis Rams this Sunday, but both teams will be playing for pride and looking for their second win of the season.

Sunday’s game starts at 4:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on FOX. Arizona is currently around a 2-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

As would be expected of two teams with only one win each, both Arizona and St. Louis rank near the bottom of the league in this week’s Don Best Linemakers Poll. Arizona is No. 25 while St. Louis is two spots lower at No. 27.

St. Louis (1-6) stunned the football world last Sunday with a 31-21 win over the New Orleans Saints. The Rams' outright win as a 13 ½-point underdog at home was their first victory straight up and against the spread of the season, and reminded everyone that anything can happen on any given Sunday.

The catalyst for St. Louis’s upset win was the resurgence of Steven Jackson who rushed for 159 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. New Orleans couldn’t find an answer for stopping him.

Quarterback Sam Bradford is currently considered questionable for this Sunday’s action with the same high ankle sprain that has kept him out the last two weeks. His return would give the Rams’ passing attack a big boost.

Arizona (1-6) held a 24-3 lead in Baltimore Sunday but couldn’t hold on for the win, instead settling for a cover as an 11-point underdog. The Cardinals have now lost six straight games, and the ATS win was their first in five games.

Kevin Kolb has been disappointing at quarterback this season, but things aren’t likely to get much better with his replacement, John Skelton, projected to start Sunday. Kolb is currently considered doubtful with a foot injury.

The defense has also been a major concern for Arizona, who has given up 30 points or more in each of the last four weeks.

St. Louis’ 19-6 win over the Cardinals in Arizona last season marked the first time the Rams had beaten Arizona since 2006. The Cardinals are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against the Rams.

The Rams are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road, but Arizona is just 3-6 SU and ATS in the last nine games at home.

Interestingly, despite the offensive nature of these two teams over the years, totals betting has trended heavily towards the ‘under’ recently. Each of the last six games between Arizona and St. Louis has gone ‘under’ the total. The total for Sunday is currently set at 41 ½.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25674 Followers:33
11/03/2011 05:30 PM

San Francisco 49ers Head East To Washington Redskins

The San Francisco 49ers will try to keep their dominant season rolling this Sunday with a road win over the beat-up Washington Redskins.

San Francisco is currently a 3 ½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Sunday’s game is set to kick off at 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on FOX.

Despite being separated by quite a bit in the standings, San Francisco and Washington rank pretty close together in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. The 49ers are No. 16 in this week’s poll, while Washington comes in at No. 22.

San Francisco (6-1) is the only team in the NFL this season without a loss against the spread, boasting a 6-0-1 ATS record. The Niners have already picked up some tough road wins this season with victories over Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Detroit.

The 49ers' bread and butter is their running game, and Washington appears to be a pretty favorable matchup. Frank Gore has led San Francisco to the league’s 6th-best rushing attack with 137.6 yards per game, and shouldn’t have much trouble against Washington’s 21st-ranked rushing defense (120.4 yards against per game).

Washington (3-4) started the season off strong with a 3-1 record both SU and ATS, but has reeled off three straight losses (0-3 ATS as well) since coming off the bye week. Starting running back Tim Hightower and wide receiver Santana Moss were both injured in Washington’s loss at Carolina two weeks ago, and their presence was clearly missed in last Sunday’s 23-0 shutout loss at Buffalo.

The Redskins managed just 178 yards of total offense against the Bills, with John Beck throwing two interceptions and the team combining for only 26 rushing yards. Considering San Francisco’s defense is much stronger than Buffalo’s, Washington will have to figure out some fixes in a hurry.

Trap games are one of the trickiest things in sports betting to diagnose, but this game certainly seems to have the feel of one. Considering each team’s recent form – San Francisco is 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five, Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three – and how awful Washington looked last week, it’s a bit surprising that San Francisco is only a 3 ½-point favorite here. Perhaps the line is factoring in the tough travel?

The total for Sunday’s game is currently set at 37 ½. The ‘under’ has prevailed in three of San Francisco’s last five games on the road and five of Washington’s last six games at home.

A lot of sunshine is in the forecast for the DC area on Sunday, with afternoon highs reaching the upper-50s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: