cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
On 11/01/2011 07:15 PM in NFL

Cnotes NFL Week # 10 Best Bets 11/06-11/07 !

2011 NFL Betting Season Reaches Midway Point

As we move into November and the NFL season reaches its midway point, the campaign is more and more coming into focus. If Week 8 reminded us of anything, it’s that there are pros playing on all 32 teams, and even the supposed worst of the lot can rise up when least expected.

Still, there were various developments worth noting from the past weekend. Following are some of the storylines out of Week 8 that we want to note as the calendar turns to November.

1) Washington is in big trouble.
The Redskins’ season has gone as pear-shaped as Michele Bachmann’s campaign for the GOP presidential nomination, with three losses on the trot and little relief on the horizon. It is becoming apparent that Mike Shanahan is losing his offseason gamble of entrusting QB duties to Rex Grossman and John Beck; recent efforts confirm how little "The Shan" really has to work with at QB this season.

But the Redskins’ problems run deeper, with injuries to RB Tim Hightower and WR Santana Moss robbing the strike force (or what’s left of it) of key components. The offensive line is suddenly a mess as well after allowing a hard-to-comprehend nine sacks vs. the Bills’ defense last week in a numbing 23-0 defeat.

Although Washington has generally played better on defense in the second year of coordinator Jim Haslett’s 3-4 looks, the stop unit is not dominating enough to camouflage the offensive shortcomings. NFC East sources suspect impatient owner Dan Snyder is about to begin meddling once again, and that Shanahan’s honeymoon period in D.C. is a distant memory.

2) St. Louis still has some life.
The Rams were a snakebit team in the early going this season, with RB Steven Jackson going down with a quad injury on just his second carry of the year, and trusted WR Danny Amendola out since midway in the opener with an elbow injury. Those developments helped to impede the progress of second-year QB Sam Bradford, who quickly began to lose confidence before being sidelined with an ankle sprain in mid-October.

Jackson, however, returned to the lineup and finally began to resemble his old self last week vs. the Saints when cracking the century mark for the first time with a blistering 159-yard rushing performance. And serviceable backup QB A.J. Feeley kept the offense enough afloat in Bradford’s absence to help end the 6-game straight-up (and spread cover) losing streak last week vs. New Orleans.

Bradford could return this week at Arizona, and will be passing to a WR corps fortified by the trade deadline addition of Brandon Lloyd, the ex-Bronco who has caught six passes in each of his first two games wearing a Rams uniform. Meanwhile, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, which had been buckling under the weight of compensating for the dreadful offense, still owns playmakers and is better than some of the numbers it posted in the first six weeks. Many NFL insiders believe the Rams could have more than a few wins left in them for the second half of the campaign.

3) Tim Tebow in Denver.
That the ex-Florida Gator Heisman winner has remarkably emerged as the most-polarizing figure in the NFL speaks more to a social and political climate that has curiously taken sides in Tebow debate. We’ll leave the grandstanding to others while pointing out what is really going on in Denver.

First, coach John Fox had little choice but to give Tebow a look after the Broncos continued to sink under QB Kyle Orton, who had lost 22 of his last 28 starts before finally being pulled after the October 16 loss to San Diego. Second, with nothing to lose this season, Fox and team prexy John Elway realized they might as well find out what Tebow could do before abandoning one of the first-round draft picks from 2010 inherited from the preceding Josh McDaniels regime.

That Tebow remains a raw and still-unrefined talent is common knowledge; whether that can be harnessed and channeled around his competitive fire remains to be seen. Tebow was roughed up last week by the Lions and looked very subpar for the first 56 minutes of his October 22 start at Miami, but his 2-3 record in five starts since last season suggests the experiment ought to continue for a while longer. Tebow is hardly the only young QB to ever struggle in the NFL, but we suspect that Tebow can be best used situationally at QB, perhaps in short-yardage or goal-line situations, and his eventual NFL career might feature him in something of a hybrid H-back/QB role. We’ll give the current experiment a while longer before making any further judgement.

We do suspect, however, that Tebow might only have the month of November to demonstrate significant progress, as sources say Fox might opt to give this third QB option, Brady Quinn, a shot in December before deciding which direction the Broncos take in the future, which includes a hefty QB bounty in next April’s NFL Draft.

4) The race for Andrew Luck.
Most NFL observers are 99% sure that the Stanford QB will declare for next April’s Draft. Luck confounded some "draftniks" last winter when opting to stay in Palo Alto for another year, and he would have one more season of college eligibility in 2012 if he chooses. But since he is on course to receive his architecture degree in spring, and fulfilling his own personal commitment to classmates he entered Stanford with in the fall of 2008, the overwhelming consensus is that Luck will come out after this campaign.

The race for the chance to draft Luck, the most pre-cooked QB for the NFL we have seen since Peyton Manning 14 years ago, has already been a topic at NFL stadiums this season. Results last week indicate that Manning-less Indianapolis, at 0-8, and struggling Miami, also winless at 0-7, are the pole-sitters in the race for the top pick. St. Louis, at 1-6, could certainly still get in the mix, although the Rams would be more likely to trade a top pick as they already believe Sam Bradford to be their QB of the future. Meanwhile, Colts president Bill Polian has indicated he wouldn’t hesitate to take Luck and let him learn the ropes behind he aging Manning (if Peyton returns to action from neck surgery), much as Aaron Rodgers looked and learned in Green Bay behind Brett Favre. Miami would also be likely to take Luck and use it as a carrot to lure a top head coach, with Tony Sparano highly unlikely to be retained beyond 2011 (if he even reaches the end of this season).

Still, there is a bit of intrigue regarding both the Colts and Dolphins as the 2011 campaign progresses. First, what if Manning, as he has hinted, gets medical clearance and announces he wants to play in December? Would Polian and HC Jim Caldwell risk blowing the number one pick by activating Manning? And what of Caldwell’s future as the coach at Indy? Second, will Dolphins owner Stephen Ross hit the eject button on Sparano while the Dolphins are still losing, risking the chance the team could make a temporary rally behind an interim coach and perhaps blow a chance at drafting the apparent best "franchise QB" of the past decade?

Stay tuned.

5) Andy Reid off a "bye" week.
Despite all of the Eagles’ problems this season, coach Andy Reid still proved worth gold off of a bye week, winning for a 13th straight time in that role on Sunday vs. Dallas. Of bigger excitement in Philly is a recent rejuvenation of a defense that looked hopelessly out of sorts with new d.c. Juan Castillo in the first month of the season. Reid has made some staff assignment adjustments for the stop unit and things seem to be clicking over the past two games, when the Birds allowed just 20 points total to climb back into the thick of the NFC East race.

6) Christian Ponder is the QB of the present and future in Minnesota.
Ponder has hit the ground running with a couple of impressive efforts in his first two starts for the Vikings, looking a lot better than Donovan McNabb did earlier in the season. Barring injury, it’s Ponder’s job for the rest of 2011, which also begs the question if McNabb really is beyond his sell-by date as a featured NFL signal caller, and where he might end up in 2012.

7) Pittsburgh is rolling again.
The defense is compensating for a variety of injuries, the offensive line has stabilized, and Big Ben seems beyond the foot problems that hampered him in the first month. Last week’s win over the Patriots was also the Steelers’ first over a New England team with Tom Brady at QB since the 2004 regular season.

Pointspread hot streaks. Wins...5-San Francisco (6-0-1 last 7), Kansas City; 4-Cincinnati; 3-Buffalo. Losses...5-Cleveland, 3-NY Giants, Washington. ‘Totals’ streaks: ‘Over’...3-Cincinnati; 2-Arizona, New Orleans. ‘Under’...6-Miami; 3-Atlanta, Cleveland, Dallas, Jacksonville, Oakland; 2-New England, Philadelphia.

What to watch in Week 9

1) Can Carson Palmer and Oakland bounce back?
Palmer, not unexpectedly, struggled in his Raider debut on October 23 vs. the Chiefs. Now the ex-Bengals QB has had two more weeks to learn the Oakland system, and might get a bonus if coach Hue Jackson signs Palmer’s old and familiar Cincy target, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, as expected this week. Getting a healthy RB Darren McFadden (ankle, check status) back into the lineup might be even more important, as the Raiders have been able to manhandle upcoming foe Denver in the pits lately, gaining a whopping 256 ypg on the ground in the last three wins and covers vs. the Broncos.

2) Do the Saints recover?
New Orleans’ 31-21 loss at St. Louis was not only the shocker of the season to date, but brought the Saints back to the pack in the NFC South, just a half-game up on both the Falcons and Bucs, the latter visiting the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday. But the Saints have bounced back with a vengeance from their previous two losses, taking out frustrations on the Bears and Colts, and Sean Payton’s team is 3-0 vs. the line at home in 2011. New Orleans is also seeking to avenge a 26-20 loss at Tampa Bay on October 16, and Bucs QB Josh Freeman (just 7 TD and 10 picks) has been struggling. Tampa Bay is also dangerously depleted at RB with Earnest Graham now KO’d for the year and LeGarrette Blount’s status questionable.

3) Can Green Bay keep winning?
Off of a "bye" last week, the Pack enters November as the NFL’s only unbeaten team at 7-0, and must travel to San Diego to face a Chargers team hungry for a win after two straight road losses has dropped them into a tie atop the AFC West with the Raiders and surging Chiefs. Green Bay hasn’t started 7-0 since Vince Lombardi’s second title team in 1962, a year in which the Pack didn’t lose until it traveled to Detroit on Thanksgiving.

Forgive us for looking ahead just a bit, but Green Bay will also be at Detroit on Thanksgiving this season, just three weeks down the road.

Another subject, however, for another day.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
11/01/2011 07:17 PM

Week 9 Preview: Buccaneers at Saints

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-3)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -7.5, Total: 51.5

The Saints seek to pay back the visiting Buccaneers who ended New Orleans’ four-game win streak in Tampa Bay three weeks ago.

New Orleans also needs to bounce back from a stunning loss to the winless Rams last week. But the Bucs have had the Saints’ number of late, winning three of four (SU and ATS) against Drew Brees and Co. That included a 26-20 win in Tampa in Week 6. But the Saints still rolled up 453 yards of offense in that game; the difference was four turnovers, including three Brees interceptions. The Saints do have two blowout wins over Tampa in the past three seasons, but the Bucs had the bye week to prepare for this game, and the team is hopeful to get top RB LeGarrette Blount (knee) back on the field after missing the past two games. The Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS (5-5 SU) in their past 10 trips to New Orleans. The Saints will likely win a close game, but the pick here is TAMPA BAY, 10-1-1 ATS in its past 12 road games, to cover the spread.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also back the Bucs:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) - with a poor first-half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points. (60-25 since 1983.) (70.6%, +32.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (58-24 since 1983.) (70.7%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Blount will certainly help a stalled Bucs running game that will be without Earnest Graham (Achilles) for the rest of the season. Tampa Bay has rushed for only 233 yards (78 YPG) in the past three weeks, but Blount rumbled for 208 yards in his past two full games. He ran for 66 yards on 19 carries (3.5 YPC) against the Saints last year. QB Josh Freeman is tied with Brees for the most interceptions in the NFC this year (10) after throwing four picks in the loss to Chicago. Freeman had just 6 INT during the entire 2010 season. However, the third-year pro had a strong effort in Week 6 against the Saints (303 passing yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) and also lit them up in last year’s visit to New Orleans (21-of-26, 255 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT).

On the defensive side of the ball, Tampa Bay ranks 26th against the pass (268 YPG) and 23rd in rushing defense (123 YPG), but has helped itself out with 11 takeaways over the past five weeks. Two key players are questionable with ankle injuries -- inside-clogging DT Gerald McCoy and starting MLB Mason Foster. FS Tanard Jackson (team-high 2 INT) is also questionable with a hamstring injury.

Brees has been much better at home this year, sporting a 124.4 QB rating (322 pass YPG, 11 TD, 2 INT) as opposed to an 88.4 mark on the road. He has had mixed results in his career against what is usually a strong Tampa Bay defense. Brees has a 6-6 record, 66.5% completion rate, 256 passing YPG, 23 TD and 12 INT lifetime versus the Bucs. In the past three games, he has a mediocre 5 TD and 5 INT. The Saints ground game chewed up 236 yards in the last home game, a 62-7 win over Indianapolis, but they have only reached 120 rushing yards in one other game this year. Without leading rusher Mark Ingram (heel) on the field last week in St. Louis, the Saints gained 56 yards on 20 carries. Ingram’s status for Sunday is uncertain. New Orleans has rushed for a subpar 176 yards in its past two meetings with Tampa Bay.

Other than forcing three turnovers during the Colts blowout, New Orleans has failed to reach two takeaways in any of its other seven games this year. The run defense has surrendered 617 yards (154 YPG) in the past four weeks, but Tampa has been the only opponent to throw for 220 yards on the Saints over the past five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
11/01/2011 07:18 PM

Week 9 Preview: Packers at Chargers

GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-0)

at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -5, Total: 53

After a devastating defeat in Kansas City on Monday Night, the Chargers will try to recover against an undefeated Packers team that hasn’t lost to San Diego in 27 years.

The last time the Chargers beat Green Bay was 1984, losing five straight meetings by an average score of 32 to 14. The last time the Packers lost an NFL game was last December in New England, when Aaron Rodgers wasn’t able to play. During Green Bay’s current 13-game win streak, Rodgers has thrown for 3,991 passing yards (307 YPG) with 34 TD and just 6 INT. The Pack are 10-3 ATS during this run and they’re going to San Diego at just the right time, as the Chargers secondary is in flux with rookie CB Marcus Gilchrist moving into the lineup. San Diego’s pass D numbers look good (186 YPG, fourth-best in NFL) because of the weak slate of QBs it has faced, but Tom Brady and the Patriots torched them for 410 passing yards, beating the Chargers by two touchdowns in Week 2. Expect Rodgers and his band of receivers to do the same. The pick here is GREEN BAY to win and cover.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also work in the Packers’ favor:

Mike McCarthy is 16-3 ATS (84.2%, +12.7 Units) vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 27.9, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 4*).

Play On - Road favorites (GREEN BAY) - when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. (33-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Rodgers’ historic season (125.7 passer rating, 72% completion rate, 20 TD, 3 INT) has been even more impressive considering Green Bay’s lack of a running game. The Packers have yet to rush for 125 yards in a single game, and their 99.9 rushing YPG ranks 24th in the NFL. RB James Starks rushed for 75 yards (5.8 YPC) in the last game at Minnesota, but he’s averaging just 3.7 YPC in the past five weeks. Green Bay is pretty healthy coming off a bye week, which gave time for WR Greg Jennings to rest his bruised hand. Jennings didn’t let the injury affect him against Minnesota, as he gained a season-high 147 receiving yards. Jennings ranks fifth in the NFL with 96.7 receiving yards per game and has also scored five times.

The Packers continue to get torched by opposing quarterbacks, allowing the second-most passing yards in football this year (289 YPG). However, this number has improved recently, as they have gone five straight games without allowing 300 yards through the air, surrendering 245 passing YPG during this stretch. On the flip side, Green Bay started the season by allowing 55 rushing YPG over its first three games, but has been run over for 139 YPG in the past four games, which includes 218 rushing yards from Minnesota last week. The Packers continue to make plays on the ball though, creating 16 turnovers this season (tied for third-most in NFL).

Rivers single-handedly cost his team a victory on Monday night by fumbling a snap with under a minute left trying to set up a short game-winning field goal try. Rivers threw for 369 yards in the game, but he had zero touchdowns and 2 INT, giving him 7 TD and an NFL-most 11 INT this season. In his past five games, Rivers has 3 TD and 7 INT. Rivers needs to connect with top WR Vincent Jackson more often. In the past four games, Jackson has a total of 10 catches for 206 yards. Despite injuries to top RBs Ryan Mathews (multiple ailments) and Mike Tolbert (hamstring), the ground game has done pretty well, gaining 116 YPG (13th in NFL). Tolbert didn’t play against the Chiefs, but Mathews rushed for 57 yards and caught six passes for 55 yards before suffering a groin injury. If Mathews and Tolbert can’t play against Green Bay (both are questionable), second-year RB Curtis Brinkley will get the bulk of the carries. Brinkley rushed for 43 yards on 10 carries and a touchdown, while adding 24 receiving yards and catching a two-point conversion in the loss to Kansas City.

Although San Diego allowed 247 passing yards to the Chiefs and will have all kinds of trouble trying to contain Green Bay’s air attack, the Chargers did a nice job stuffing the run, holding K.C. to 94 yards on 32 carries (2.9 YPC). San Diego has forced nine turnovers in the past four games after just two takeaways in the season’s first three contests.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
11/01/2011 07:20 PM

Week 9 Preview: Ravens at Steelers

BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-2)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 41.5

Pittsburgh is playing its best football of the season, and just in time to host arch-rival Baltimore on Sunday night.

A week after finally topping Tom Brady and the Patriots, the Steelers are looking to exact a little revenge after turning it over seven times in a season-opening, 35-7 loss in Baltimore. Previously, eight of the past nine meetings between the teams had been decided by seven points or less. The Ravens have not been the same team on the road this year though, where they were hammered in Tennessee and stunned as double-digit favorites in Jacksonville (they also pounded the Rams in St. Louis). QB Joe Flacco was particularly awful in those two road losses, and he has a career 65.3 passer rating in five career games at Pittsburgh. After a slow start against Arizona last week, he played better operating exclusively out of the shotgun in the second half. But the Steelers will continue to make him uncomfortable in the pocket and will counter on offense with their red-hot QB Ben Roethlisberger to lead them to the victory. Take PITTSBURGH on Sunday night.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Steelers:

PITTSBURGH is 15-2 ATS (88.2%, +12.8 Units) in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 28.5, OPPONENT 15.4 - (Rating = 3*).

Roethlisberger has thrown 13 TD and 4 INT since tossing three picks in the season-opening 35-7 defeat at Baltimore. He has been up-and-down in his career in this series, going 7-4 with a 57.5% completion rate, 191 passing YPG, 16 TD and 11 INT in 11 lifetime games against the Ravens. Considering Baltimore has held four of its past five opponents to under 140 passing yards, Roethlisberger certainly has his work cut out for him. Pittsburgh’s running game has also stalled a bit in the past two weeks, gaining just 189 yards on 51 carries (3.7 YPC). Top RB Rashard Mendenhall has found little room to run in the past four meetings against Baltimore, rushing for a total of 205 yards on 2.8 YPC. Mendenhall is coming off a solid 13-carry, 70-yard performance against New England though. The Steelers could get WR Hines Ward back for this game after Ward missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury.

The Pittsburgh defense is seriously hurting with its linebacker corps. LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) will not play Sunday and James Harrison (eye) also remains out of the lineup, while LBs James Farrior (calf) and Jason Worilds (quad) are listed as questionable. But the Steelers secondary has been tremendous all season, helping the team lead the NFL in passing defense (172 YPG). Pittsburgh’s rushing defense is allowing only 99 YPG, good for eighth in the NFL. Its past two opponents (Arizona and New England) combined for just 116 yards on 31 carries (3.7 YPC).

Flacco’s accuracy has been a problem this year, as he is completing just 53.8% of his passes. But he is coming off a season-high 60.8% completions against Arizona. He also threw three touchdowns in the Week 1 win over Pittsburgh. The key to this game will be the efficiency of Ray Rice. He is having a tremendous season with 862 yards from scrimmage and 7 TD, but he hasn’t rushed the ball with great efficiency over the past four weeks, gaining 258 yards on 74 carries (3.5 YPC). In his six career games against the Steelers, Rice has 538 total yards and 4.5 YPC, but only two total touchdowns.

Baltimore’s defense has been consistently excellent all season, ranking third in the NFL in both passing (174 YPG) and rushing (89 YPG). The Ravens held their past two opponents (Jacksonville and Arizona) to 171 passing yards on 41 attempts (4.17 YPA).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
11/01/2011 07:22 PM

Trending: NFL Power of the Bye (Nov. 6)

We continue our series of studying teams’ performances in and out of the bye week. What you’ll see here should open your eyes. Hopefully it will expand your bankroll as well, as all of these powerful ATS or Over-Under trends boast winning percentages of at least 65 percent or at most 35 percent.

NEW YORK JETS (4-3)

at BUFFALO BILLS (5-2)




NEW YORK JETS are 7-2 ATS in their last nine post-bye week games, and all but two of the Jets’ last 15 post-bye week games have gone UNDER the total. Last year’s matchup between the Jets and Packers went against the sides trend, but the total came in way under the 41½ number in Green Bay’s 9-0 road victory. It was the lowest-scoring contest involving Gang Green since the Jets’ 6-0 win over Pittsburgh on December 14, 2003.
Play On: NEW YORK JETS ATS & UNDER THE TOTAL

ATLANTA FALCONS (4-3)

at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-8)



UNDER the total is 10-2 in Atlanta’s last 12 games after the team’s bye, although the Falcons’ post-bye week game last year did go over the 44½-point total in the team’s 27-21 win over Tampa Bay.
Play On: UNDER THE TOTAL

CHICAGO BEARS (4-3)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-4)



CHICAGO is 2-6-1 in its past nine games after a bye. The one push among those contests came last year in Toronto, when as a three-point favorite, the Bears beat the Bills 22-19. It wasn’t exactly an impressive performance, as Chicago trailed 19-14 before Earl Bennett’s touchdown reception with 6:45 left in the fourth quarter. A two-point conversion pass to Matt Forte finished the scoring and allowed Chicago to match the point spread.
Play On: PHILADELPHIA ATS

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
11/01/2011 07:24 PM

Big 'dogs help Books

October 31, 2011

What looked to be an early NFL schedule of ugly games uglier turned out to be the prettiest gateway to success for Las Vegas sports books, who had their best Sunday of the season.
“What a bunch of ugly early pro games the bettors had to watch,“ said Station Casino’s sports book director Jason McCormick. “We had a hard time figuring out what was the most competitive game to broadcast sound throughout the book.”

That type of indecision wasn’t difficult for bettors. They knew who they liked, and didn’t like, and a few of the large early points-spreads enticed them to play the perceived better teams and it cost them dearly.

“The Dolphins, Rams and Cardinals killed a large portion of the parlays on the day in the early games,” said McCormick.

Those three teams alone had been a thorn in the side of the sports books all season with a combined 2-15-1 record against the spread. Some bettors have found it’s easier to just blindly bet against these teams than actually handicap because they have been so reliably bad. The Dolphins and Cardinals played very well against the Giants and Ravens respectively, almost getting the upset while covering, with the Rams winning outright as 13-point home underdogs to the Saints, 31-21.

Through eight weeks of the season last year, bettors were getting punished with the sports books winning large in all but one of the weeks. This year, the tables have been turned with the bad teams being really bad and a select few good teams being really good.

Even though the one of the bettor’s favorite teams to bet against, the Colts, still lost and didn’t cover to the Titans, just about everything tied to them had died with the other dregs playing well.

Once the afternoon games came along, the books didn’t see the type of large extended risk on the parlays like the previous seven weeks.

“We won with the Steelers in the late game and lost the other four games, but the loss wasn‘t like what we have seen the last few weeks because most of the liability from the early games had been eliminated making the risk minimal, said McCormick. “It was almost like the afternoon games started with a clean slate.“

“Those early games helped us not only with parlays, but wiped out the majority of our teaser risk as well,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “It seemed like every teaser on the day had the Saints and Ravens attached.”

“The late games were basically a wash for us. There was sharp money on Seattle, Cleveland and Washington, while the public won betting against those teams. We won with the Steelers and the public won with the Lions.”

In the NFL, we’re not supposed to see such a glaring disparity between teams like we do in college because they’re professionals. It’s not uncommon to see one or two really bad teams, but usually, the number is always solid and pulls them closer. This year, that hasn’t been the case. But it looks like week 8 might be the start of a turnaround for the books, who always need the bad teams to cover.

“The best about thing about the week, beyond finally having a good day, was that it was encouraging to see some of these bad teams play well on the road, and one of them (Rams) finally get a win,“ said Osborne. “Most of this season, it’s been pretty easy for the bettors just picking on five or six teams every week.”

“It was a glowing weekend for us overall between the college and pro games,” said McCormick. “We definitely needed a strong weekend to close out the month of October.”

The sports books were indeed due for a good day.

Shrewd Rood

Who would have thought the Cincinnati Bengals would be 5-2 after eight weeks? MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood might have. Rood posted the first NFL season win totals in Las Vegas with the Bengals being the team everyone picked on early going UNDER 8 ½ wins.

Bettors were licking their chops trying get as much as they could on the UNDER and laid any number all the way to down to 7. Why not? A bad head coach with a team of jurisprudence stories and a rookie starting quarterback, Andy Dalton. Seems like a good enough reason to think they’d do poorly, again, coming off a 4-12 season.

Rood said at the time that he was trying to drive handle and create some decisions for his sports books as being the reason to being the first up with the totals, but also liked the Bengals to improve upon their 2010 campaign.

A virgin number always creates the most interest and isn’t diluted by offshore or competing books where bettors just scalp prices with little handicapping involved. This was just straight forward handicapping with nothing else to go off but the bettors knowledge against the book’s line.

Between local radio shows and professional betting experts, Rood’s number on the Bengals was routinely criticized, as if their own personal opinion was the proper one. With nine games to go the Bengals have to win four games for Rood to scoop in all the chips. Three wins would still get the MGM most of the money as well with the first couple of wagers pushing the Bengals off of the initial total.

In the end, should these experts lose, they’ll still say they had the right side just like Phil Helmuth does when he loses a hand of poker. Either way, it’s refreshing to see a sports book offer something early before everyone else does with a stale market number and also having so many people actually betting it with their own opinions.

Wynn Book First Class

I have to hand it to Johnny Avello and the Wynn for running a first class race and sports book. Avello is the ultimate ambassador of his room, saying hello to new and old guests alike as a good host does for high rollers. Between his friendly staff, clean room, luxurious surroundings and upscale clientele inhabiting the book, I can’t think of a better place to play horses and watch games on a weekend than the Wynn.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
11/01/2011 07:26 PM

Redskins fit 'dog system

October 31, 2011

Last week, we informed users of a sound handicapping system and it came through, rather easily and surprisingly too.
With that being said, we applaud all bettors who took the Rams in Week 8 as 13 ½-point home underdogs against the Saints. St. Louis led from the start and was never threatened, cashing money-line tickets as high as 7/1 (Bet $100 to win $700) in its 31-21 victory.

In short, the system is as follows:

Play on any home underdog that is coming off a road loss of at least 21 points or more

Since 2006 and including this season, teams in these situations have gone 35-21 against the spread, hitting at a 63% clip.


2011 Home Underdog Results
Road Loss of 21 or more Following Week at Home SU - ATS Results
Indianapolis 7 Houston 34 Cleveland 27 Indianapolis (+1.5) 19 LOSS - LOSS
Seattle 0 Pittsburgh 24 Arizona 10 Seattle (+3) 13 WIN - WIN
Denver 23 Green Bay 49 San Diego 29 Denver (+3.5) 24 LOSS - LOSS
Tampa Bay 3 San Francisco 48 New Orleans 20 Tampa Bay (+6) 26 WIN - WIN
Minnesota 10 Chicago 39 Green Bay 33 Minnesota (+10) 27 LOSS - WIN
St. Louis 7 Dallas 34 New Orleans 21 at St. Louis (+13.5) 31 WIN - WIN
Washington 0 Buffalo 23 San Francisco at Washington TBD



We’re not here to gloat, rather help and we wanted to make you aware that the system is in effect again this weekend. Washington was embarrassed in Toronto to Buffalo, 23-0. The Redskins had 178 yards of total offense and head coach Mike Shanahan suffered his first shutout in 24 seasons as a coach or coordinator in the NFL.

With Sunday's loss, the Redskins have now dropped three in a row both SU and ATS, and they’re catching points at home this weekend to San Francisco.

Should you run to the window and bet your bankroll on Washington? That’s up to you, but make a note that the system has worked

better with home ‘dogs getting 5 ½-points or more. The record there stands at 23-10 (70%), which includes the Rams last week. It doesn’t take a mathematician to know that the difference between the record and the overall is just 12-11 (52%). The current line has San Francisco hovering between 3 and 3 ½-points.

The 49ers have been a pleasant surprise this season, starting 6-1 and the one loss came to Dallas in overtime. We understand they’ve had some close calls and great comebacks, but Jim Harbaugh’s team is 6-0-1 ATS, which is the best in the league.

Will the public ride the “Gold Rush” again to the betting counter? It’s hard to go against the 49ers but even if they have that letdown, they’ll still likely hold a four-game lead in the NFC West.

Washington is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS at home this season. And if you want some more rationale on the ‘Skins, they’ve gone 2-0 against the NFC West with victories against the Cardinals (22-21) and Rams (17-10).

Dare we say 3-0? Money-line price on Washington opened at plus-160 (Bet $100 to win $160) for Sunday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
11/01/2011 07:31 PM

Tech Trends - Week 9

November 1, 2011

Sunday, Nov. 6 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Colts no covers last 4 TY and only 2-6 vs. line in 2011. Indy "over" 6-2 TY. Falcons 10-4 vs. spread last 14 away (though only 1-3 TY) and "over" 6-3 last 9 away. "Over" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trend.

Bucs have won last two at NO as road dog. Visitor 4-1 SU and vs. line in series since 2009 although host Bucs won earlier meeting TY. Bucs 12-3 vs. line last 15 as true visitor. But Saints have covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 at Superdome and are 2-0 vs. line off SU loss TY. Slight to Saints, based on recent trends.

Browns only 2-13 vs. spread last 14 on board. Texans "under" 6-2 TY, Cleveland "under" last 3 TY. Texans and "under," based on recent trends.

Note that underdog team 6-1 vs. line in Bills games TY. Jets no covers first three TY and last four overall on road. Jets "over" 13-1 last 14 away. Bills "over" 6-1 last 7 since late 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Sparano has also dropped 3 of last 5 vs. number away but still 19-8 last 27 vs. line on road. Sparano also "under" 6-1 TY. Chiefs have covered last 5 after Monday win over SD. Slight to Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
at Harbaugh 6-0-1 vs. line TY. Skins, "under" 10-4 last 14 since mid 2010. 49ers, based on recent trends.

Pete Carroll has covered last two on road after dropping 9 of first 11 vs. spread away. Dallas "over" 9-3 last 12 at home, Pete Carroll "over" 7-2 last 9 away. Dallas 2-7 as home chalk since LY. "Over" and Slight to Seahawks, based on "totals"" and team trends.



Sunday, Nov. 6 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Raiders have won and covered last four in series. Oakland also 9-2 vs. line last 11 in series. "Overs" 7-2 last nine
meetings. Denver "over" 21-7 last 27 since late 2009. "Over" and Raiders, based on "totals" and team trends.

Bengals have covered last four and six of last seven TY. Titans just 5-10 vs. spread last 15 as chalk. Bengals, based on team trends.




Sunday, Nov. 6 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Rams 1-6 vs. line TY, also 2-9 last 11 on board. Slight to Cards, based on recent Rams woes.

First non-preseason meeting between these two since Super Bowl XLII. Belichick "under" last two TY but still "over" 20-6 last 26, Giants "over" 5-2 TY. Couglin 14-7 last 21 as road dog since late 2006. "Over" and Giants, based on "totals" and team trends.

Pack 7-2 last 9 vs. line on road. Norv 10-6 as dog since 2007 and "under" 7-1 last 8 as host. Packers and Slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.






Sunday, Nov. 6 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

No team has swept the pointspread decisions in this series since 2006, before Harbaugh or Tomlin had arrived in their current jobs. Ravens won and covered 35-7 in opener. "Overs" 8-4 last 12 in series. Harbaugh only 5-8 last 13 as dog. Ravens however are 4-1-1 vs. line last six reg.-season visits to Heinz Field. Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.




Monday, Nov. 7 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Bears have won and covered the last two years in series and have won and covered last two as well TY. Bears "under" 7-1-2 last 10 away. Bears and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
11/01/2011 07:31 PM

Tech Trends - Week 9

November 1, 2011

Sunday, Nov. 6 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Colts no covers last 4 TY and only 2-6 vs. line in 2011. Indy "over" 6-2 TY. Falcons 10-4 vs. spread last 14 away (though only 1-3 TY) and "over" 6-3 last 9 away. "Over" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trend.

Bucs have won last two at NO as road dog. Visitor 4-1 SU and vs. line in series since 2009 although host Bucs won earlier meeting TY. Bucs 12-3 vs. line last 15 as true visitor. But Saints have covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 at Superdome and are 2-0 vs. line off SU loss TY. Slight to Saints, based on recent trends.

Browns only 2-13 vs. spread last 14 on board. Texans "under" 6-2 TY, Cleveland "under" last 3 TY. Texans and "under," based on recent trends.

Note that underdog team 6-1 vs. line in Bills games TY. Jets no covers first three TY and last four overall on road. Jets "over" 13-1 last 14 away. Bills "over" 6-1 last 7 since late 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Sparano has also dropped 3 of last 5 vs. number away but still 19-8 last 27 vs. line on road. Sparano also "under" 6-1 TY. Chiefs have covered last 5 after Monday win over SD. Slight to Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
at Harbaugh 6-0-1 vs. line TY. Skins, "under" 10-4 last 14 since mid 2010. 49ers, based on recent trends.

Pete Carroll has covered last two on road after dropping 9 of first 11 vs. spread away. Dallas "over" 9-3 last 12 at home, Pete Carroll "over" 7-2 last 9 away. Dallas 2-7 as home chalk since LY. "Over" and Slight to Seahawks, based on "totals"" and team trends.



Sunday, Nov. 6 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Raiders have won and covered last four in series. Oakland also 9-2 vs. line last 11 in series. "Overs" 7-2 last nine
meetings. Denver "over" 21-7 last 27 since late 2009. "Over" and Raiders, based on "totals" and team trends.

Bengals have covered last four and six of last seven TY. Titans just 5-10 vs. spread last 15 as chalk. Bengals, based on team trends.




Sunday, Nov. 6 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Rams 1-6 vs. line TY, also 2-9 last 11 on board. Slight to Cards, based on recent Rams woes.

First non-preseason meeting between these two since Super Bowl XLII. Belichick "under" last two TY but still "over" 20-6 last 26, Giants "over" 5-2 TY. Couglin 14-7 last 21 as road dog since late 2006. "Over" and Giants, based on "totals" and team trends.

Pack 7-2 last 9 vs. line on road. Norv 10-6 as dog since 2007 and "under" 7-1 last 8 as host. Packers and Slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.






Sunday, Nov. 6 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

No team has swept the pointspread decisions in this series since 2006, before Harbaugh or Tomlin had arrived in their current jobs. Ravens won and covered 35-7 in opener. "Overs" 8-4 last 12 in series. Harbaugh only 5-8 last 13 as dog. Ravens however are 4-1-1 vs. line last six reg.-season visits to Heinz Field. Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.




Monday, Nov. 7 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Bears have won and covered the last two years in series and have won and covered last two as well TY. Bears "under" 7-1-2 last 10 away. Bears and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25008 Followers:33
11/02/2011 10:35 PM

Miami Dolphins Look For First Win At Kansas City Chiefs

Talk about your teams going in the opposite direction. Sunday's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City finds the Chiefs coming off a very fortunate overtime victory to extend their win streak to four, and the Miami Dolphins still winless on the 2011 season after another blown opportunity.

NFL oddsmakers opened the Chiefs as 5-point favorites, but the spread dropped a point to KC -4 by midweek. Conversely, the total has risen since its initial offering of 39, with 39½-40 available depending where you shop.

Members of the 1972 Dolphins are known to celebrate each season when the last of the unbeaten NFL squads fall by the wayside, keeping their perfect 17-0 campaign at the top of record books. Perhaps they will pop the cork on some bubbly this year if and when the current Miami crew garners win No. 1.

Head coach Tony Sparano, assuming he's still at the helm, will probably celebrate that himself. The Dolphins are just four years removed from a 1-15 season, a mark Sparano was credited for turning around in record fashion with an 11-5 showing his first year at the helm (2008).

Miami has certainly had some chances to put a victory on the ledger, including each of the last two weeks. Tim Tebow and the visiting Broncos dashed those thoughts two Sunday's ago with late rally for an 18-15 overtime win, and the just completed Week 8 saw the Dolphins blow a shot at a major upset on the road with a 20-17 loss to the Giants.

At least Miami won at the window in the defeat at New York, easily covering with the 9½ points sports books were offering. It was only the second spread victory of the year for the Fins who just did cash as 2-point road 'dogs vs. the Browns in a 17-16 Week 3 setback.

As if winning with a full complement of players wasn't hard enough for Sparano and his coaching staff, the Dolphins continue to be ravaged with injuries. Down to third-string QB Matt Moore already, Miami could be without three more key members of the offense this week.

Starting center Mike Pouncey injured his neck in the Giants game and is officially questionable though reports are he will play. Fellow lineman Richie Incognito (ankle) is also questionable, as is running back Daniel Thomas (hamstring).

Reggie Bush replaced Thomas last week and went over the 100-yard mark on just 15 carries.

While the Dolphins are battling the Colts for the dishonors of being the worst team in the NFL presently, there were many who felt that distinction might belong to the Chiefs just three weeks into the season. Kansas City stumbled out of the gate as the victim of routs against the Bills and Lions by a combined 89-10 score, then blew a chance for its first win on the schedule in Week 3 when a visit to San Diego ended with a 20-17 loss.

The Chiefs have since rebounded with four consecutive wins – five straight against the spread – to join the logjam at the top of the AFC West alongside the Raiders and Chargers. Kansas City is the first team to win four straight after beginning the year 0-3 since the 2000 Pittsburgh Steelers.

Todd Haley's bunch avenged the loss at San Diego this past Monday with a 23-20 win in overtime over the Chargers. Kansas City blew an early 10-0 lead and appeared headed towards defeat late in the fourth quarter with the Bolts in position to kick a go-ahead field goal. But Chargers QB Philip Rivers muffed a snap to end that drive, and Matt Cassel eventually steered a 74-yard drive to set up Ryan Succop's field goal to lift KC in the 'fifth quarter.'

Kansas City's defense did most of the heavy lifting in the 28-0 blanking of the Raiders in Oakland two weeks ago, helping to cover for Cassel's two picks. He threw two more to the wrong team in the win over the Chargers, both grabbed by Eric Weddle, plus had a fumble as part of a 4-turnover evening for the Chiefs. Kansas City, and especially those laying points on KC this week, can ill-afford another mistake-filled game if the win streak is to advance to five.

The current stretch of victories has moved the Chiefs up to 20th on the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll. Miami is 30th, with only Seattle and Indianapolis trailing.

This contest is part of Sunday's early slate of games with the CBS broadcast set for 1:00 p.m. (ET). The weatherman is calling for a few clouds and afternoon highs in the low-60s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: