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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/12/2014 12:20 PM
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 54)

Chargers’ third-down success vs. Broncos’ third-down defense

The Bolts have already laid the blueprint for beating the Broncos, knocking off Denver 27-20 as 10-point road underdogs in Week 15. San Diego controlled the tempo and dominated time of possession in that game, burning up 38:49 to Denver’s 21:11. A big part of that win – and the Chargers’ overall success – is the team’s ability to keep the chains moving on third down. San Diego ranks tops in the NFL in third-down conversion rate, picking up the first 48.17 percent of the time, and went 6 for 12 on third downs in the win over Denver.

The Broncos defense has been the elephant in the room all season. Denver’s stop unit has been burned for big numbers and is missing one of its key cogs in LB Von Miller, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Broncos were in the middle of the road in terms of third-down defense, limiting opponents to a 38.07 conversion percentage (16th), but can’t afford to keep the Bolts on the field Sunday. San Diego did a great job holding on to the ball and removing Peyton Manning and the Denver offense from the equation in Week 15.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/12/2014 12:20 PM
Injury report: Panthers receiver Steve Smith plans to play despite spraining a knee ligament Week 16. He’s unsure how effective he’ll be or whether his knee will hold up. Without Smith in the lineup most of the past two games, Brandon LaFell has flopped as a No. 1 receiver. Look for receiver Ted Ginn to make an impact against his former team.

Running back Jonathan Stewart also is expected to play after missing the last three games with a torn MCL.

49ers starting corner Carlos Rogers (hamstring) missed Wednesday's practice and could be out for the second straight week. But Tarell Brown, Tramaine Brock and Perrish Cox played well in his absence, limiting Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to 177 passing yards.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/12/2014 12:20 PM
WHY CHARGERS WILL COVER

The San Diego Chargers will win versus Denver Sunday because for the last five games, they are playing as well as anyone. Denver couldn't slow down the Chargers in Week 15 – a 27-20 San Diego win in Denver as 10-point underdogs - so I don't see how they can now without LB Von Miller (out with a torn ACL).
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/12/2014 12:20 PM
WHY BRONCOS WILL COVER

It's all about the points. Denver has the No. 1 Offense and they are facing the 32nd-rated defense in the Chargers. Pick your poison, who do you stop: Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker or Knowshon Moreno? They each have at least 10 touchdowns this season. Combine that with an accurate quarterback who can not only get his offense into the right play call for any defensive front, but deliver the ball to one of these weapons in two seconds. The Broncos average 38 points a game. San Diego 24. There's your spread.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/12/2014 12:23 PM
San Diego, December and later: 37-10 SU (29-18 ATS)

San Diego head coach McCoy Denver’s OC last year
Denver held to less than 31 points only 3 times this season:
Twice by San Diego
In those two games, SD outscored by only 1 point and outgained by only 26 yards.
Time of possession: SD 77 minutes; Denver 43 minutes
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/12/2014 12:27 PM
Denver ATS at home (26-39) since 2006

(Denver) 2003 was the last time the team with the best record in the NFL (or tied for the best record) won the Super Bowl.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/12/2014 12:28 PM
Line movement and notes: The LVH SuperBook’s opening line of Denver -10.5 drew immediate action on the underdog Chargers last Sunday, and the line was adjusted to -10 later that evening. Money continued to come in on San Diego throughout the week, and by Thursday, nearly every sports book in Las Vegas was dealing 9.5. Cantor, in fact, moved to 9.

As of Friday afternoon, there were more tickets on underdog San Diego than Denver at the LVH, vice president of race and sports book operations Jay Kornegay said. However, Kornegay expected the bulk of live parlays rolling into Chargers-Broncos to be on Denver. Also, Kornegay noted that there was plenty of betting left to come on the last NFL game of the weekend.

The total opened 56 and was bet down to 55 at the LVH and other shops, and sat as low as 54.5 as of Friday morning.
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