coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:43 PM

Seattle even better at home laying over a touchdown: 18-5 ATS

Road team in Saints games has covered only 2 of 17 games this season

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:43 PM


coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:44 PM

GOOD NEWS


coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:45 PM


coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:46 PM

NFL BLITZ BIG PLAYOFF PICKS

Getting these picks up right away....

Saints +8.5
Patriots -7



coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:46 PM

When teams played Week 13
spread was as low as -4.5 during the week.

Public remembers what they see:
they saw Seattle dismantle New Orleans on Monday Night Football
(outgaining Saints by 240 yards)

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:46 PM

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7.5, 51.5)

Colts’ comebacks vs. Patriots’ fourth quarter defense

The Colts are becoming as predictable as a Rocky movie. Scene 1: Indianapolis gets its head beat in for two quarters. Scene 2: Bell rings for halftime, head coach Chuck Pagano does his best Mickey impersonation before a pump-up montage to awesome 80’s cock rock. Scene 3: Colts come out swinging and rip victory from the clutches of defeat. Cue credits and Survivor. Indianapolis did just that versus Kansas City Saturday, scoring 35 points in the second half. That’s kind of been the calling card of the Andrew Luck era in Indy.

The Patriots enjoyed a bye week and hopefully figured out a way to get through the fourth quarter without needing a pile of points. New England’s offense has masked a serious issue, with the defense unable to close out games by itself. The Pats have given up 31 total points in the final frame over their last three outings – offsetting that by answering with 49 points of their own. However, those fourth-quarter lapses could come back to bite New England hard if the Colts get on the comeback trail.

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:46 PM

WHY PATRIOTS WILL COVER

The Patriots are going to slice open the Colts defense that was exploited by the Chiefs, and the Patriots will take T.Y. Hilton out of the game. Belichick has a plan to take out the most important player on the Colts offense and he won't let Indy back into the game once they fall behind. Lead foot on the gas pedal.

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:48 PM


coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
01/11/2014 03:48 PM


Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots minus-7.5
Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Colts

Public perception: The Patriots have long been a public team, but support has been waning as they're not as dominant as they once were. Even though both the public and wiseguys went against the Colts last week, the comeback by Andrew Luck certainly earned Indy some more followers. Still, with some books already dropping the line to 7, we'll see plenty of other people backing the Patriots this weekend in straight bets, parlays and teasers.

Wiseguys' view: This line opened as high as 9, but early sharps took out any of those higher numbers. At the current numbers, wiseguys are pretty split with those who like the Colts still willing to take them at plus-7.5, while those who think the line has dropped enough to offer value on the Pats at home are willing to lay the 7.

Tuley's Take: Over the years, I've usually avoided fading the Patriots at home, but that aura of invincibility is mostly gone. In fact, the Patriots have been eliminated from the playoffs at home in three of the past four postseasons. While I certainly agree that coach Bill Belichick is the best at plugging holes, the injuries continue to pile up for the Patriots. Obviously the offense isn't as potent without tight end Rob Gronkowski, but the part that really concerns me is the defense without Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes. And obviously any play on the Colts -- especially as an underdog -- is based not only on their tendency to step up against better competition (wins over the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos even before knocking off the Chiefs last week) but also their ability to come from behind.

The pick: Colts