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Falcons (4-3) @ Colts (0-8)-- Winless Indy failed to cover its last four games, but they've been competitive at home, losing by 8-3-4 points; Colts are 2-5 vs spread as an underdog, 1-1 at home. Indy is 13-1 in this series, with only loss in '98; Falcons are 0-3 in Indy, but haven't been here since '03. Atlanta won last two games (31-17/23-16) after shaky 2-3 start- they allowed 13 sacks in first three games, only five since. AFC South teams are 5-9 vs spread as an underdog in non-divisional games. Atlanta won five of last seven post-bye games, with two wins by more than 7 points- they're 3-2 vs spread in last five games as a post-bye favorite. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; five of last seven Indianapolis games went over.
Buccaneers (4-3) @ Saints (5-3)-- Bucs (+4.5) won first series matchup 26-20 at home three weeks ago, with +4 turnover ratio (4-0), but that was third week in row on road for New Orleans, which had hideous loss last week in St Louis. Bucs won three of last four visits here; only once in their last six visits here has game been decided by more than 4 points. Saints are 3-0 as home favorites this year, winning by 17-7-55 points; home side covered seven of their eight games. Home teams are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South games this year. Bucs covered last five post-bye games, winning last four- they've covered last six games as post-bye dog. Four of last five Buc games stayed under total. Under is 8-2 this year in games involving road teams coming off a bye.
Browns (3-4) @ Texans (5-3)-- Wade Phillips' defense is improving; in last two games, Texans allowed 2.9/2.7 yards per pass- they've taken ball away twice in each of last three games. Cleveland lost three of last four games-- win was 6-3 over Seattle; teams split six meetings- average total in Cleveland's three wins was 43.7, in Houston's three 25.7. Browns scored 16 or less points in all three series losses. Texans are 3-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 27-7-10 points, with loss to Oakland. Browns' losses are by 10-18-7-10- they are 0-2 as an underdog this year. AFC South home favorites are 1-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North underdogs are 5-3. Under is 6-2 in Texan games, 4-1 in last five Cleveland games.
Jets (4-3) @ Bills (5-2)-- Jets are 4-0 at home, 0-3 on road, losing by 10-17-9 points, allowing 34-34-30 points, but they've won five of last six series games, winning 38-14/38-7 in LY's matchups- they won 26-17/38-14 in last two trips here. Bills are 3-0 in Orchard Park, winning by 3-3-7, scoring 38-34-31 points against good teams- their only losses are by 3 points each. Road teams coming off bye (2-1 this year) have historically been a good play. Jets are 0-2 in post-bye games under Ryan, after covering seven in row before Rex became coach. Teams are 1-3 the week after playing the Redskins, despite being favored in all four games. Home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in divisional games this season. Over is 5-2 in Buffalo games, 4-1 in last five Jet games.
Dolphins (0-7) @ Chiefs (4-3)-- Three of winless Miami's last five losses are by three points each; they're 2-2 as road underdog this year, 16-7 since 2008. Chiefs won last four games after 0-3 start; they're on short week after Monday night upset of divisional rival San Diego, with another rival (Denver) coming in next. This is first time KC has been favored since season opener; since '07, they are 3-7-1 as home favorites. This is Miami's 5th road game in last seven weeks; they scored 17 or less points in last six games. Last six Dolphin games, four of last five KC games stayed under the total. Teams are 0-4 vs spread week after playing the Giants. AFC East road dogs are 4-2 vs spread in its non-divisional games; AFC West home favorites are 2-3.
49ers (6-1) @ Redskins (3-4)-- Niners won/covered last five games; they were +2 or better in turnovers in five of seven games this year. Redskins lost three in row since their bye, outscored 76-33; last week was first time a Shanahan team was shut out. Washington has started nine drives in enemy territory this year, but has only a TD, two FGs to show for it. Teams are 0-6 (2-4 vs spread, 0-1 as favorites) week after playing Cleveland; teams are 4-1 SU (three of five were underdogs) week after playing Buffalo. In last three games, 49ers allowed only three TDs on 35 drives; Redskins scored three TDs on last 32 drives. Five of last six SF games stayed under the total. Winning a game like this, that they're expected to win on road, is a good yardstick of how good 49ers really are.
Seahawks (2-5) @ Cowboys (3-4)-- Dallas won last two series games, 34-9/38-17, but they're 4-9 vs spread in last 13 tilts as home favorite, 4-8 in last dozen as double digit favorite. Seattle failed to cover its last six games as a double digit dog. Dallas lost three of last four games, getting whacked by Eagles last week; Favorites are 2-0 vs spread week after playing Philly. Dogs are 4-1 week after playing Cincinnati. Seattle has seven takeaways (+3) in its two wins, three (-6) in its five losses. Four of last five Dallas games stayed under total; three of last four Seattle games went over. NFC East home favorites are 2-6 vs spread as a non-divisional favorite. Seattle covered twice in its last eleven games as double digit dog- they're 1-2-1 as a road dog this year, losing by 16-24-3 points.
Broncos (2-5) @ Raiders (4-3)-- Oakland won last four series games, including 23-20 (+3) win in season opener in Mile High City, when they outrushed the Broncos 190-38. Denver has QB no one thinks is good, while Raiders are trying to force feed newly-acquired vet QB Palmer offense so they can win enough to make playoffs. Oakland is 0-9 vs spread in last nine post-bye games. Last four Raider games stayed under total. Broncos have 183-195 rushing yards in two Tebow starts, but averaged only 3.7/2.5 ypa- they have three TDs on 30 drives in his two starts. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games so far this season. Oakland is 4-3, with only one win by more than 7 points; they are 3-11 vs spread in their last 14 games as a home favorite.
Bengals (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)-- Cincy won/covered last four games; they've also covered five in row on road- they averaged 39 yards/punt return in 34-12 win at Seattle last week (was 17-12 before late TDs on defense/special teams). Bengals scored a defensive TD in each of last three games; they also have TD drives of 23-26 and two of 52 yards in last three games. Defense is putting the offense in good position to score- they're only NFL team to win battle for field position in every game this season. Over is 3-1 in Titans' last four games, 3-0 in Bengals' last three. Cincy lost six of last seven visits here, with five of last six losses by 7+ points. Tennessee won 10 of last 13 series games, they're 3-2 since they became divisional rivals.
Rams (1-6) @ Cardinals (1-6)-- Unsure what to make of Rams' upset win last week, but WR Lloyd has made big difference in passing game since coming over from Denver. Kolb (turf toe) unlikely to start at QB for Arizona; Bradford has bad ankle, but his backup Feeley is a much better option than Redbird backup QB Skelton (played for Fordham Rams in college). Rams got drilled in last three visits here, 48-19/34-10/31-10; they've lost eight of last nine series games, with five of eight losses by 14+ points. St Louis is 13-20 in last 33 tries as road dog, 0-3 this year, losing 28-16/24-3/34-7 on foreign soil. Arizona lost six games in row since winning opener; they're 2-6 as home fave. Rams scored three TDs on 12 drives last week, after scoring five on 67 drives in first six games.
Giants (5-2) @ Patriots (5-2)-- Teams' first meeting since Giants' ruined New England's perfect season in Super Bowl four years ago; Big Blue lost two of its three visits here (16-14/17-6) with average total in three games, 25.3. Pats are 20-6 vs spread in game following their last 26 losses- they're 11-7-1 in last 19 games as home favorites. Giants are 4-5 in last nine games as road dogs. Pats are 3-0 at home, winning by 14-9-4 points. Favorites are 0-2 the week after playing the Steelers; dogs are 0-2 the week after playing Miami. First road game in five weeks for Giants, who are 1-2 this season when they don't win turnover battle. AFC East home favorites are 4-2-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Giants gave up 28-36 points in their two losses; Pats scored 30+ in 4 of 7 games.
Packers (7-0) @ Chargers (4-3)-- Green Bay won five in row, eight of nine vs Chargers, with only loss in 1984; they're 5-0 against the Bolts here. Chargers trying to bounce back from hideous OT loss in Knasas City Monday, when a botched center snap cost SD shot at easy win at end of regulation. Packers won 26-0/31-3 in last two post-bye games; they're 5-2 vs spread this year, winning road games by 7-10-11-6 points (2-2 as road fave this year, 12-8 since '07). San Diego is 1-3 this year when it allows 23+ points; Green Bay scored 3+ TDs in six of its seven games. Under is 2-0-1 in San Diego home games; this is the first home game in five weeks for Chargers, who lost last two games. NFC North favorites are 8-6 vs spread in its non-divisional games.
Ravens (6-2) @ Steelers (5-2)-- Baltimore (-2.5) pounded rivals 35-7 way back in Week 1, avenging loss in LY's playoffs, but Ravens lost five of last six here and haven't swept Steelers since 2006. Ravens outrushed Pitt 170-66 in opener, but haven't run for more than 113 yards in last four games- they rallied back to nip 1-6 Arizona last week after trailing 24-6 at half, avoiding their second loss in row. Ravens are the dog for first time this year; they're 9-5-2 in last 16 games as road underdog, but they've struggled on road, losing at Titans/Jaguars, with only win at 1-6 St Louis. Steelers are 4-0 at home this year, 2-1 as home fave, winning by average score of 26-12. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread the week after playing Arizona. Under is 6-0 in games involving teams who played Patriots in their last game.
Bears (4-3) @ Eagles (3-4)-- Chicago won three of last four series games, with all four games decided by 5 or less points; seven of last nine in series were won by 6 or less. Bears won four of last six visits here, but last visit here was in '07. Both teams won last two games after shaky starts; Chicago is 0-2 in true road games, losing 30-13 (+7) in Superdome, 24-13 in Detroit. Philly beat couple of divisional rivals after a 1-4 start; they allowed 13 or less points in all three wins 24+ points in all four losses. Chicago scored 24+ points in its wins, 17 or less in its losses. Teams won/covered all five games week after playing Dallas, with four of those five staying under total. All three Chicago road games went under the total. Winner gets back to .500; loser is in deep trouble.
Heading to Punta Cana in the morning so will not be around for most of Sunday.
Will stop in during the week to give you daily updates and make sure Ryan is not
planking on the blackjack tables or at the bar.