01/05/2014 12:18 PM
Wunderdog says: "The Bengals are a perfect 8-0 at home, but that just begins to tell the story. Their last five home games show a composite score of 208-78, which works out to a margin of victory of 26 points per game. It isn't often a team survives four INTs by their QB and wins by 17 points, but that was the case last week with Cincinnati. Just 28 teams in NFL history have committed four turnovers and won by more than two TDs. That's how good this Bengals team can be at home.
"They have a solid defense, holding six teams to 20 or fewer at home, including just six points allowed to New England. It could be another long day for Philip Rivers as the Bengals have held opposing QBs to a 60.6 passer rating in this building, while registering 24 sacks. The Bengals are now 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. And the Chargers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games versus high-scoring offenses like the Bengals (teams that average 24-plus points per game). Andy Dalton is at his best versus bad pass defenses like San Diego's.
"San Diego had the ultimate backdoor playoff entry, but the Chargers have won four straight and their defense has played much better down the stretch. However, San Diego still has no running game, which becomes a lethal liability in the playoffs. And the Chargers have allowed opposing QBs to complete 66.4 percent of their passes.
"Dalton is 12-3 ATS versus teams that allow 61 percent-and-above completions. Lay the points on Cincy."