11/02/2011 11:34 PM
Tech Trends - Week 10
November 1, 2011
Thursday, Nov. 3
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
AKRON at MIAMI-OHIO...Zips have covered last three in series. RedHawks just 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as Yager Stadium chalk. Akron, based on series and team trends.
FLORIDA STATE at BOSTON COLLEGE...BC has covered last three years in series. Spaziani, however, no covers last 4 or 9 of last 10 at home vs. FBS foes. Eagles also just 5-6 last 11 in once-profitable dog role. Slight to FSU, based on recent BC home woes.
TULSA at UCF...UCF 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Slight to Tulsa, based on recent trends.
Friday, Nov. 4
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at KENT STATE...Dan Enos 1-8 vs. line for CMU TY, 1-9 last 10 since late 2010 and 3-14 last 17 vs. spread since mid 2010. Chips 1-7 last 8 vs. number on road as well, and if favored note Enos 1-5 as chalk since LY. Kent, based on CMU woes.
SOUTHERN CAL at COLORADO...Lane Kiffin 6-2 vs. line last 8 away. Buffs only 2-7 vs. number for Embree and 4-13 vs. line last 17 on board since early 2010. SC, based on team trends.
Saturday, Nov. 4
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
LOUISVILLE at WEST VIRGINIA...UL continues to overachieve vs. line on road for Charlie Strong, now 8-1 vs. line away from Papa John's since LY. Cards have covered last two trips to Morgantown, too. UL, based on recent road mark.
BALL STATE at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU has covered last three meetings but Ball 12-5 vs. line away since '09 and has covered 6 of last 7 on MAC trail. EMU could be rare chalk here, 0-2 in role TY, 0-4 since '07. Eagles no covers as chalk since late 2005 at Buffalo. Ball, especially if dog, based on team trends.
OLE MISS at KENTUCKY...UK just 4-13 vs. line last 17 as SEC host. Joker just 3-10 vs. number last 13 on board since mid 2010. Ole Miss, based on UK negatives.
NEW MEXICO STATE at GEORGIA...DeWayne Walker has covered first four on road TY and is 12-5 vs. spread as visitor since arriving at NMSU in 2009. Richt only 15-22 vs. spread between the hedges since late 2004. NMSU, based on DeWayne Walker road mark.
SOUTH FLORIDA at RUTGERS...Skip fading, 0-4 last four on board TY. If Skip a dog note 5-3 dog mark at USF (1-0 TY) and 28-12 mark as short since 2005 at ECU. Rutgers, however, has covered four straight in series. Slight to USF, if dog, based on Skip dog marks.
VIRGINIA at MARYLAND...Cavs have covered 4 of last 5 in series but failed vs. number against Terps LY. Edsall only 1-6 vs. line last seven TY. Virginia, based on extended team and series trends.
SYRACUSE at UCONN...Pasqualoni game. UConn has covered last four in series. Huskies 26-12 vs. line at Rentsch since '05. UConn, based on series and team trends.
DUKE at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Duke has covered 4 of last 5 in series, including the last two. Canes just 12-24 last 36 as home chalk. Duke 5-1-1 vs. line away since LY and 17-7-1 in role since 2007. Duke, based on team and series trends.
MINNESOTA at MICHIGAN STATE...MSU has failed to cover the last two years vs. Minnesota and four straight vs. Gophers dating to 2005. Gophers have failed to cover last two on road after 6-1 spread mark previous seven as visitor. Slight to Minnesota, based on series trends.
PURDUE at WISCONSIN...Bielema heartbreaks last two but he's still 12-3 last 15 on board. Badgers have also covered last five and seven of last eight at home vs. Big Ten foes. Badgers have also won and covered five straight vs. Purdue, the last three by 21 or more. Wisconsin, based on series and extended team trends.
INDIANA at OHIO STATE...Hoosiers 2-7 vs. line last nine away from Bloomington (1-3 TY). IU also no covers last six vs. Ohio State, although Buckeyes not quite the same TY after 14-2 home spread mark the last 16 of the Tressel era. Slight to OSU, based on team and series trends.
VANDERBILT at FLORIDA...Commodores have actually covered 3 of last 4 at Gainesville. Although Vandy no covers last five on SEC road (0-2 TY) after 15-5 mark previous 20 in role. Gators no covers last 4 TY and only 2-4 vs. line at home vs. SEC foes post-Tebow. Vandy, based on extended team and series trends.
KANSAS at IOWA STATE...Turner Gill just 2-6 vs. line on road since arriving at KU LY. Note also that the fading Jayhawks have covered just one of their last six this season. Paul Rhoads 6-4 as chalk at ISU. ISU, based on KU negatives.
NORTHWESTERN at NEBRASKA...First meeting since 2000 Alamo Bowl, won by Frank Solich in 66-17 romp. Cats 7-14 vs. line since 2010. Fitzgerald only 3-7 vs. line last 10 as visitor and only 2-3 in once-profitable visiting dog role since LY. NU was 18-8 as dog between 2006-09. Bo Pelini, however, is just 3-8 vs. line last 11 as host. Northwestern, based on extended trends.
TCU at WYOMING...TCU 5-0-1 vs. line against Wyoming since joining Mountain West in 2005. Frogs just 1-4 laying DD in 2011, however. Wyo only 4-8 last 12 vs. line at Laramie and 2-6 last 8 as DD home dog. TCU, based on series trends.
TULANE at SMU...Wave is crashing lately, 1-5 vs. line last six TY, 11-29-1 last 41 on board. Interestingly, the road team has covered the last five in series, with Wave covering last three at Dallas. SMU, based on recent trends.
ARMY at AIR FORCE...Army no covers last five or 8 of last 9 in series. West Point also no covers first four on road TY. Air Force, based on series trends.
MICHIGAN at IOWA...Kirk Ferentz 12-5 as dog since 2007, although just 1-2 in role since LY. Brady Hoke 1-1 vs. points away TY and Wolves just 4-12 vs. line away since 2008 (mostly due to Rich-Rod). Slight to Iowa, if dog, based on extended trends.
TEXAS TECH at TEXAS...Mack Brown just 4-12 vs. line last 16 as host (1-2 TY) and no covers last five as Big XII host. Tuberville now 7-2 vs. line last 9 reg.-season games and has covered both tries as dog TY, though just 3-3 as short at Tech. Texas Tech, based on recent trends.
TEXAS A&M at OKLAHOMA...Stoops in revenge mode but he failed to cover in that role earlier TY vs. Mizzou and just 4-3 last 7 in role. OU had won and covered big in '08-09 vs. A&M and hit 60+ in Stoops 19-10 vs. line at home since '07 but only 2-2 TY. Aggies no covers last four away from College Station. Slight to OU, based on team trends.
SOUTH CAROLINA at ARKANSAS...Spurrier 0-4-1 last five vs. line against Arkansas and SC only 1-8-1 against spread last 10 in series. Spurrier just 7-8 vs. line as dog away from home since '07. Razorbacks 8-1 against points last nine as host. Arkansas, based on team and series trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at NC STATE...Tom O'Brien has won and covered last four in series. O'Brien 19-6 vs. spread beginning with fifth game of season on board since 2008. NCS, based on team and series trends.
LSU at ALABAMA...LSU had failed to cover five straight in series prior to rousing 24-21 win at Baton Rouge LY. Last five in series "over" as well. Tigers no covers last three at Baton Rouge after covering previous 4 and 5 of 6 at Tuscaloosa. Road team had covered 11 of 12 meetings prior to 2002. LSU has covered five straight away from home since late 2010. Les Miles 4-1 last 5 as dog. Saban 9-5 last 14 vs. line at home vs. FBS foes and 31-15 vs. spread last 46 on board. Slight to LSU, based on recent trends.
OREGON at WASHINGTON...Ducks have won and covered last seven meetings. UW 10-2 SU and vs. line last 12 since late 2010. Ducks only 5-8 vs. line last 13 away from Eugene. Slight to UO, based on series trends.
ARIZONA STATE at UCLA...Neuheisel 2-6 vs. line TY, 2-9 last 11 on board, 4-12 last 16 vs. spread since early 2010. Home team has covered last five in series but note Dennis Erickson 6-1 vs. spread last seven on Pac-12 trail. ASU, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON STATE at CAL (from AT&T Park, San Francisco)...WSU is 11-5 its last 16 on board and has covered last two vs. Cal. Tedford only 4-8 his last 12 on board, though Cal is 3-0 as home chalk at AT&T and the Stick this season. WSU, based on recent series trends.
NOTRE DAME at WAKE FOREST...Jim Grobe 12-6 last 18 as home dog. Brian Kelly 6-3 vs. spread at ND away from home but has only covered 6 of 16 as chalk. Wake, based on team trends.
SOUTHERN MISS at EAST CAROLINA...USM on a nice uptick, won and covered last six TY. Revenge for Golden Eagles after losing 44-43 shootout to ECU LY. USM had covered previous three meetings. USM, based on recent trends.
IDAHO at SAN JOSE STATE...Spartans 0-4 as chalk under McIntyre and no covers last 8 in role. Robb Akey has covered 4 of last 5 on road with rugged Vandals. Dog has covered last three in series. Idaho, based on team and series dog trends.
UTAH at ARIZONA...Utes only 4-8-1 last 13 on board since late LY. These are long ago WAC rivals. Slight to Arizona, based on recent Ute negatives.
STANFORD at OREGON STATE...Tree still 10-0-1 vs. lien last 11 on board. Beavers only 2-5 vs. line last 7 at home but Mike Riley is 21-8 last 29 as dog. Stanford, based on recent trends.
KANSAS STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE...Mike Gundy has covered last seven TY and is 17-4 vs. number since beginning of 2010. Bill Snyder 12-6 as dog since returning to KSU sidelines in 2009. OSU, based on recent trends.
MISSOURI at BAYLOR...Note that Art Briles covered in '08-09 vs. Pinkel. Baylor 3-0 vs. line TY at Waco. Slight to Baylor, based on team and series trends.
HOUSTON at UAB...UH 3-9 vs. line as road chalk since 2009 (1-2 TY), while UAB 5-1 last 6 vs. line despite Marshall loss. Slight to UAB, based on recent trends.
CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH...Road team has won and covered the past two years. Cincy has covered four of last five TY. If chalk note Bearcats 5-1 last six on road in role. Slight to Cincy, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO at SAN DIEGO STATE...New Mexico has actually covered 9 of last 10 in series. Lobos now no covers last 4 TY and 2-8 vs. line last 10 since late 2010. SDSU, based on UNM woes.
UTEP at RICE..Rice had owned UTEP until LY, covering 7 straight vs. Miners prior to 44-24 loss at Sun Bowl in 2010. Owls have still covered four straight at home vs. UTEP. Owls 25-11 as home dog since 2000 (5-3 since LY). Rice, especially if dog, based on team and extended series trends.
LA TECH at FRESNO STATE...La Tech has covered 4 of last 5 TY and is 4-0 as dog in 2011. LT had covered six straight in this series before losing at home to Pat Hill LY. LT 4-0-1 vs. line last five trips to Bulldog Stadium. FSU 7-23 last 30 vs. line at home. LT, based on team trends.
BOISE STATE at UNLV...Boise now 12-1 vs. line last 13 away from blue carpet. UNLV lurking, however, and 7 -1 vs. line against FBS at Sam Boyd Stadium since LY. Rebs 15-5 last 19 as home dog dating to the Mike Sanford years and mid 2006. Slight to Boise, based on team trends.
UTAH STATE at HAWAII...USU beginning to wobble with losses in its last two. Utags still 19-9 vs. line away since 2007. UH 9-1 vs. line last 10 reg. season at Aloha Stadium, and Leahey has won and covered last two years vs. Aggies. Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
TROY at NAVY...Mids no covers last three at home TY, and just 11-20 vs. points their last 31 at Annapolis. Troy, however, just 7-13 vs. line since LY. Troy only 3-8-1 last 12 against line outside of Belt. Slight to Troy, based on Navy home woes.
UL-MONROE at UL-LAFAYETTE...ULL has won and covered last three meetings. Ragin' Cajuns 11-7 last 18 as chalk though just 2-6 vs. line last 8 as host (covers in last two at Cajun Field, however). Slight to ULL, based on series trends.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at WESTERN KENTUCKY...FIU has cooled considerably with no covers last five TY. WKU on 4-game spread uptick since the Indiana State drubbing in mid-September. WKU, based on recent trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at TENNESSEE...Vols have covered 4 of last 5 as home chalk, but MTSU has covered last four as visitor since late LY. MTSU, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...FAU 2-6 vs. line TY, ASU 7-1 vs. line TY. Howard 2-10 last 12 on board, 3-14 last 17, and 2-9 vs. line as host sine 2009 (0-2 in new stadium TY). ASU, based on team trends.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: