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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/04/2014 03:43 PM
The Colts beat the Chiefs, 23-7, just two weeks ago in Kansas City, but the Chiefs didn't have Tamba Hali or Branden Albert in that game. Big reason why Smith was sacked five times and fumbled twice. Hali is officially active today after missing two practices this week with a knee injury.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/04/2014 03:44 PM
Wunderdog says: "I think the wrong team is favored here. The way the line has moved, it seems some agree. Indianapolis has not looked like the same team that ran the table on arguably the best teams in the NFL early in the season. Early on, the Colts beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver over the course of a five-week span. But let's not forget that they also lost to Miami, San Diego, St. Louis, Arizona and Cincinnati. And those big wins were with Reggie Wayne in the lineup. While the Colts have won their last three games, this team is not built for the playoffs. They don't run the ball well, and without Wayne, this offense isn't the same.

"Teams that can run the ball well are generally good bets in the playoffs, and Kansas City generates 4.66 yards per carry. Remember, Charles went for 106 yards and a TD on just 16 carries in the loss to Indianapolis earlier this season. And because the Chiefs were behind, he did not get utilized as much as he will in this one.

"But the Chiefs lost to Indianapolis just a few weeks ago, you say? KC didn't have Justin Houston for that game. He is an elite pass-rusher and hasn't played since Week 12, but his return makes the Chiefs instantly better defensively. The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS on the road this season and Reid's teams are 78-49 ATS on the road including 42-23 ATS as a road underdog. Reid-led teams are also 27-10 ATS on the road in a 'revenge' game."

Pick: Chiefs

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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/04/2014 03:44 PM
Sal Selvaggio says: "I made Indy minus-1, which is pretty dead on the number. I was hoping for plus-3 when the line opened at plus-2.5 but with money coming on the Chiefs already there is no shot at it getting there now. KC has been very unimpressive down the stretch but my gut says they are the right side in this one."

Pick: Chiefs
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/04/2014 03:44 PM
Andrew Luck has been more efficient this season, cutting his interceptions from 18 to nine. But can he win his first playoff game?
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/04/2014 03:45 PM
WHY CHIEFS WILL COVER

The Chiefs scored 124 first-quarter points this season, which was the second-best mark in franchise history. The Colts have been known as slow starters. The key to this game will be the Chiefs jumping out to a commanding lead early in the game. Andrew Luck is obviously terrific late in games when he needs to be, so the Chiefs' best shot at winning will be finding a way to limit when the Colts make their eventual run.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/04/2014 03:45 PM
WHY COLTS WILL COVER

The Colts’ playoff chances start and end with Andrew Luck, and it's precisely the reason why the Colts trounced the Chiefs at home in Week 16. The NFL is a game of quarterbacks and Luck is simply better than Alex Smith. He's had no help from the running game all season, yet he's begun to heat up over the last four weeks as the Colts have opened up their offense with more spread and no-huddle looks. Luck has posted a 99.9 passer rating over the last four weeks, including an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, which is the most important thing for Indianapolis. The Colts are undefeated when they win the turnover battle, but winless when they turn the ball over more than the opponent.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/04/2014 03:45 PM
I think the NFC's road teams -- the Saints and 49ers -- have better squads than the hosts, but will weather in Philadelphia and Green Bay, respectively, be the great equalizer? That's especially true for the Saints, who haven't scored more than 20 points on the road in five straight games. They've been held to less than 30 at home just twice.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/04/2014 03:46 PM
Last season's Super Bowl winner, Baltimore, was a No. 4 seed. The season before, the Giants were also a No. 4 seed. And the year before that, the Packers won it as a No. 6 seed.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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01/04/2014 03:46 PM
• In the last eight postseasons, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are 19-16 combined, with two Super Bowl titles.

• In the last eight postseasons, Mark Sanchez, Eli Manning, and Joe Flacco are 21-9 combined, with three Super Bowl titles.
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