01/04/2014 03:44 PM
Wunderdog says: "I think the wrong team is favored here. The way the line has moved, it seems some agree. Indianapolis has not looked like the same team that ran the table on arguably the best teams in the NFL early in the season. Early on, the Colts beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver over the course of a five-week span. But let's not forget that they also lost to Miami, San Diego, St. Louis, Arizona and Cincinnati. And those big wins were with Reggie Wayne in the lineup. While the Colts have won their last three games, this team is not built for the playoffs. They don't run the ball well, and without Wayne, this offense isn't the same.
"Teams that can run the ball well are generally good bets in the playoffs, and Kansas City generates 4.66 yards per carry. Remember, Charles went for 106 yards and a TD on just 16 carries in the loss to Indianapolis earlier this season. And because the Chiefs were behind, he did not get utilized as much as he will in this one.
"But the Chiefs lost to Indianapolis just a few weeks ago, you say? KC didn't have Justin Houston for that game. He is an elite pass-rusher and hasn't played since Week 12, but his return makes the Chiefs instantly better defensively. The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS on the road this season and Reid's teams are 78-49 ATS on the road including 42-23 ATS as a road underdog. Reid-led teams are also 27-10 ATS on the road in a 'revenge' game."