coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:38 PM

BIG BLITZ PLAYOFF PICKS

I finished with a winning record this season and hope that it carries over to the post season.

1) Colts +1.5

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-10-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:39 PM

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 46)

Andrew Luck and Indianapolis Colts closed the season with three consecutive lopsided victories, including a 23-7 romp in Kansas City, and now have the luxury of home-field advantage when they host the Chiefs on Saturday in the AFC wild-card round. The Colts allowed a staggering 82 points in road losses to Arizona and Cincinnati before sinking the Chiefs, part of a three-game run that has seen them outscore the opposition 78-20. Indianapolis has dominated the series, winning five of the last six.

Unlike the Colts, Kansas City wobbled down the stretch, losing five of its last seven games after opening the season with nine straight wins and leading the league in points allowed. The Chiefs, seeking their first postseason victory since Joe Montana was under center in 1994, committed an uncharacteristic four turnovers in the loss to the Colts on Dec. 22. "They've got the upper hand on us right now because in their minds they think they can beat us," Kansas City linebacker Derrick Johnson said after last month's loss.

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Colts opened at -2.5, but have been bet all the way to +1. The total has moved down slightly from 46.5 to 46.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-10-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:39 PM

Home playoff underdogs are 22-12 ATS (64.7 percent) since 1990

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coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:39 PM

12-4 ATS at home in Andrew Luck’s career

KC 2-5 last 7 games (beat Redskins and Raiders)

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-10-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:40 PM


  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-10-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:41 PM


  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-10-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:42 PM

Jamaal Charles was the best running back in the league this season, in my opinion, but can a running back-dominated offense have playoff success in today's game? One thing that helps -- Alex Smith threw a league-low seven interceptions among full-season starters.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-10-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:43 PM

We've had one significant Round 2 upset for eight straight Januarys: the '05 Steelers in Indy (+9.5 underdogs); the '06 Pats in San Diego (+4.5); the '07 Chargers in Indianapolis (+11); the '08 Cards in Carolina (+10); the '09 Jets in San Diego (+8.5); the '10 Jets in New England (+9); the '11 Giants in Green Bay (+8.5); and the '12 Ravens in Denver (+9). Good lord! Seven of those were MONSTER upsets, too. Kudos to the Greatest Quarterback of All Time, Peyton Manning, for somehow being on the wrong side of three of them! (Sorry, I had to.)

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-10-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:43 PM

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-5, 9-7 ATS): There remains uncertainty whether leading wide receiver Dwayne Bowe will be cleared to play after suffering a concussion, but that won't alter the game plan for quarterback Alex Smith and Kansas City. The Chiefs will feature a heavy dose of running back Jamaal Charles, who led the AFC with 1,287 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while hauling in a team-high 70 receptions and seven scoring passes. "We called him public enemy No. 1," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "If he doesn't touch the ball 30 times, I'd be shocked." After resting most of the starters in last week's loss at San Diego, the Chiefs are expecting the return of linebacker Justin Houston, who tied for the team sack lead (11) with Tamba Hali despite missing the last five games with a dislocated elbow.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 4-10-1
coleryan Posts:11990 Followers:20
01/04/2014 03:43 PM

Spread to bet now

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

What you see is what you get with the early number in this one. Philadelphia opened up as a 2.5-point favorite and, with pretty much even wagering, that’s likely to hold firm. So if you’re waiting for this one to tip a half point either way, you most likely are out of luck.

As to the game, the spread seems to be too thin by about a point - especially considering that the Saints have not played one game this season in cold weather, which is invading the Northeast this week.

Did you think on Halloween night that the Eagles had a ghost of a chance of going 7-1 on the back nine? Only a defensive letdown in Minnesota sits between Philly and an eight-game winning streak. Andy Reid might still be in town if he had had more confidence in Nick Foles and less in Michael Vick.

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