01/04/2014 03:39 PM
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 46)
Andrew Luck and Indianapolis Colts closed the season with three consecutive lopsided victories, including a 23-7 romp in Kansas City, and now have the luxury of home-field advantage when they host the Chiefs on Saturday in the AFC wild-card round. The Colts allowed a staggering 82 points in road losses to Arizona and Cincinnati before sinking the Chiefs, part of a three-game run that has seen them outscore the opposition 78-20. Indianapolis has dominated the series, winning five of the last six.
Unlike the Colts, Kansas City wobbled down the stretch, losing five of its last seven games after opening the season with nine straight wins and leading the league in points allowed. The Chiefs, seeking their first postseason victory since Joe Montana was under center in 1994, committed an uncharacteristic four turnovers in the loss to the Colts on Dec. 22. "They've got the upper hand on us right now because in their minds they think they can beat us," Kansas City linebacker Derrick Johnson said after last month's loss.
TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE: The Colts opened at -2.5, but have been bet all the way to +1. The total has moved down slightly from 46.5 to 46.