01/04/2014 03:30 PM
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Chiefs
Public perception: The public is just slightly on the favored Colts here, but it hasn't been enough to push the line to minus-3. The public likes that the Colts seem to be peaking at the right time as they've won (and covered) their last three games. That includes a 23-7 rout of this same Chiefs team just two weeks ago in Kansas City. And given their druthers, the public is more likely to side with Andrew Luck over Alex Smith.
Wiseguys' view: There is no definitive wiseguy side to this game, and we see that throughout the weekend as all the lines seem pretty solid and the sharps are split at the current numbers. Although the sharps respect Luck, they also know that Smith's stats are nearly identical this year so there's no big edge at that position. Overall, these teams are pretty evenly matched.
Tuley's Take: At first glance, that earlier meeting concerns me. But looking back at how it went has me thinking the Chiefs will turn the tables. They ran right through the Colts defense on the opening drive (a week after putting up 56 points on the Raiders) with Jamaal Charles capping it off with a 31-yard touchdown run, but otherwise looked like a team that already knew it was going to be locked into the No. 5 seed and would be facing this team again. I don't think Andy Reid showed his best hand. The Chiefs were also undone by two interceptions by Smith and a fumble by backup running back Knile Davis. As long as they avoid turnovers -- and Charles gets to run wild on the fast turf in Indy -- I think we see that the Chiefs are the better team and advance.
The pick: Chiefs