coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:29 PM

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts - Open: -1, Move: -2, Move: Pick

Some markets opened the Colts as slight 1-point home favorites while others reacted to the early movement and opened Indianapolis at -2.5. Sharps hit the Colts early on this week, but money has been coming in on the road team over the past 24 hours.

"Sharp play on Friday morning - on KC +2 - so moved them to +1," Perry told Covers. "Another sharp play on the Chiefs this morning, so the line has moved to a pick ‘em. Sixty percent of cash is on Indy."

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:30 PM

Here's a look at the four wild-card games this weekend and how our power ratings compare. The deeper into the season we get, the tighter the numbers become as well:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts minus-2.5: We have these two teams rated exactly the same at 19.5 apiece, so giving the Colts the standard 2.5 points for home-field advantage puts this right at the consensus line of Colts minus-2.5.

Power rating pick: Pass.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles minus-2.5: On the raw numbers, we have the Saints rated one point over the Eagles. With home field factored in, that makes the Eagles favored but by not quite as much as the 2.5 points being offered as of Tuesday.

Power rating pick: Slightly on Saints plus-2.5.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:30 PM


Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Chiefs

Public perception: The public is just slightly on the favored Colts here, but it hasn't been enough to push the line to minus-3. The public likes that the Colts seem to be peaking at the right time as they've won (and covered) their last three games. That includes a 23-7 rout of this same Chiefs team just two weeks ago in Kansas City. And given their druthers, the public is more likely to side with Andrew Luck over Alex Smith.

Wiseguys' view: There is no definitive wiseguy side to this game, and we see that throughout the weekend as all the lines seem pretty solid and the sharps are split at the current numbers. Although the sharps respect Luck, they also know that Smith's stats are nearly identical this year so there's no big edge at that position. Overall, these teams are pretty evenly matched.

Tuley's Take: At first glance, that earlier meeting concerns me. But looking back at how it went has me thinking the Chiefs will turn the tables. They ran right through the Colts defense on the opening drive (a week after putting up 56 points on the Raiders) with Jamaal Charles capping it off with a 31-yard touchdown run, but otherwise looked like a team that already knew it was going to be locked into the No. 5 seed and would be facing this team again. I don't think Andy Reid showed his best hand. The Chiefs were also undone by two interceptions by Smith and a fumble by backup running back Knile Davis. As long as they avoid turnovers -- and Charles gets to run wild on the fast turf in Indy -- I think we see that the Chiefs are the better team and advance.

The pick: Chiefs

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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:31 PM

Alex Smith last 41 games as a starter: 31-9-1 SU

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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:32 PM

Since January 2006 …

The league's two best teams by record only faced off in one Super Bowl: the '09 Saints versus '09 Colts (combined records: 31-5)

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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:33 PM

Injury to watch

Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints (Chest, Questionable)

The Saints are ranked 25th in rushing yards and 23rd in rushing touchdowns with 10. Despite the Saints not showing much success on the ground, Thomas leads them in attempts, yards, and is second in rushing touchdowns (Drew Brees leads the team). The Saints have been successful converting third-down attempts (44%) and are 47 percent when going for it on fourth down. New Orleans may find themselves in trouble in short-yardage situations if Thomas is forced to watch from the sidelines.

The Saints are 2.5-point road underdogs against Philadelphia. The total is 54.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:33 PM

It's really important to clinch a Round 1 bye, right? Well, the '08 Steelers and '09 Saints were the only bye week teams to win Super Bowls. The Bye Weekers only finished over .500 in the playoffs once, in 2009, when they went 6-3. They never went "chalk," finishing 29-30 overall. By contrast, from 1998 through 2004, the Bye Weekers won six of seven Super Bowls,3 went "chalk" three times (in 1998, 2002 and 2004), and never dipped below .500 (finishing 40-22 overall)

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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:35 PM

Weather is the big news today


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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:36 PM

The Chiefs have lost five of seven since starting 9-0, and all five losses came against playoff teams. Their only victory this season against a playoff team came in Week 3 against the Eagles, who fell to 1-2 at the time. I think today will show us if the Chiefs are the good team that ran through the first two months, or if it's too late to recapture that momentum.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
01/04/2014 03:36 PM

Andy Reid on road: 62% ATS in career (79-48 ATS)

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