cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/21/2014 05:54 PM

Heat, Celtics hook up

January 21, 2014


Check out more NBA Odds at Sportsbook.ag!

BOSTON CELTICS (14-28) at MIAMI HEAT (29-12)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Miami -9, 197.5

After an unsuccessful road trip, the Heat look to end their struggles on Tuesday evening when they return home to face the slumping Celtics.

Miami has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, allowing only 98.8 PPG (9th in NBA), but in its just-completed 2-4 road trip, the club allowed 102+ points in all four defeats. Boston has been atrocious over the past month, losing 14 of 16 games SU and going 5-11 ATS. Before this slide, the team had allowed just 95.8 PPG, but that number has jumped to 103.6 PPG during the 2-14 stretch. This includes going 0-2 (SU and ATS) since getting star PG Rajon Rondo back on the court.

When these teams met earlier in the season on Nov. 9, the Heat were a 13.5-point home favorite but lost 111-110 on a Jeff Green buzzer-beating three pointer. This improved the Celtics record in this series to 12-4 ATS (8-8 SU) over the past three seasons, including 6-3 ATS (3-6 SU) in Miami. The Over is 12-4 (75%) in this series during this three-year timeframe, including 8-1 (89%) in South Beach. This season, Boston is a solid 11-10 ATS (5-16 SU) on the road, while the Heat are a poor 7-12 ATS (16-3 SU) at home. Both teams have favorable betting trends on Tuesday though, with Miami benefitting from the fact that NBA favorites with a 60% to 75% win pct. coming off an upset division loss when favored are 32-8 ATS (80%) in the past five seasons when facing a losing team. However, extremely tired (playing 4th game in 5 days) home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110+ points are a mere 6-28 ATS (18%) over the past five seasons. On the injury front, SF Jeff Green (knee) is probable for Boston, while Jerryd Bayless (toe) is questionable.

The Celtics have been a poor offensive team all season with just 95.2 PPG (25th in NBA) on 43.9% FG (23rd in league) and 33.2% threes (28th in NBA). They are also tallying a subpar 42.7 RPG (21st in league) and a woeful 19.7 APG (28th in NBA), but got a lot of firepower back recently with PG Rajon Rondo returning from a torn ACL. Despite losing both games with Rondo in the lineup, he is averaging 7.0 PPG, 4.0 APG, 4.0 RPG and 1.5 SPG in just 20.5 MPG. He will need to use his speed to get into the paint and create shots for his teammates as he will be guarded by a slower player in Mario Chalmers. In the past four meetings he's had with the Heat, Rondo has posted an impressive 54 assists (13.5 APG) and just 16 turnovers (3.4 Ast/TO ratio).

SF Jeff Green (15.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG) hit a game-winner the last time these teams played on Nov. 9, finishing that contest with 23 points (5-of-8 threes) and five boards. Green is also coming off a 22-point performance against the Magic where he shot 15 free throws, and his ability to get into the paint will be a key part of this matchup. Green will also have the nearly impossible defensive assignment of containing LeBron James. PF Jared Sullinger (13.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG) will need to score the basketball as he will be going up against a relatively small frontcourt. Sullinger has averaged just 9.5 PPG over the past two contests and the Celtics will need a lot more out of him. PG Avery Bradley (14.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG) is coming off of an 18-point performance against the Magic, but made just 7-of-21 shots (0-for-5 threes). Bradley is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA and will be relied upon to shut down Dwyane Wade.

The Heat have been a highly efficient offense all season with 104.2 PPG (7th in NBA) on a league-high 50.6% FG and 37.6% threes (7th in NBA). They have also dished out 23.5 APG (5th in NBA) and rank 11th in the league with a 1.62 Ast/TO ratio. The one weakness continues to be on the boards, as they have the fewest rebounds in the league (36.6 RPG) and the NBA's fourth-worst rebounding margin (minus-3.8 RPG). SG Dwyane Wade (18.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.7 APG) sat out the past two games for Miami with a sore knee, but is expected to give it a go against the Celtics. Wade has dropped 20.7 PPG, 6.1 APG and 4.2 RPG in 32 career games in this series, finishing the Nov. 9 meeting with 18 points and seven assists. SF LeBron James (26.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 6.6 APG, 1.3 SPG) has also dominated Boston in his career with 30.1 PPG (50% FG), 6.7 RPG and 6.6 APG in 35 career meetings. This includes a 25-point, 10-assist, 8-rebound effort earlier this season when he made 9-of-13 FG. James continues to play at an MVP level, averaging 29.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 6.7 APG during the six-game road trip his team just wrapped up.

PF Chris Bosh (16.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG) also had a strong road trip, averaging 24.3 PPG (54% FG, 8-of-18 threes), 6.8 RPG and 1.3 BPG over the final four contests. He should have a productive game against the Celtics who lack a strong interior presence defensively, and who have always struggled to guard Bosh who has 18.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG in 37 career meetings against them. Since returning from an Achilles injury, PG Mario Chalmers (9.5 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.9 SPG) is averaging a solid 12.0 PPG, 4.7 APG, 3.3 RPG and 2.3 SPG. He will need to hold his own against Rajon Rondo, who is an elite player when healthy, but he is still not close to 100 percent after returning from a torn ACL.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/21/2014 05:54 PM

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best NBA spot bet opportunities

Letdown spot

Denver was in terrible form for the entire month of December. The Nuggets went 5-10 SU and ATS during the month. The first two weeks of January were strong, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, but the Nuggets have lost back-to-back games coming into Thursday’s game in Portland.

The Nuggets will have three full days of rest going into that game, and then they have Friday off before hosting Indiana Saturday night. That’s two Class-A teams in back-to-back games. On Sunday, the Nuggets will play at Sacramento, so Denver may not be too sharp after playing the Blazers and Pacers in their previous two contests.

Lookahead spot

Indiana began a five-game West Coast road trip at Golden State Monday night. The Pacers will play in Phoenix Wednesday, in Sacramento Friday, and then at Denver Saturday. In that sequence, Indiana will face just one bad team, and that’s the Kings.

Indiana just beat Sacramento 116-92 at home on January 14. That game was never close, as the Pacers led by as many as 29 points. After facing the Warriors and Suns, Indiana will play the Kings on the first night of a back-to-back set before playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver. The Pacers will be looking ahead to the Nuggets, especially since they just crushed the Kings by 24 points in their previous meeting.

Schedule spot

The Utah Jazz have had a miserable season, but they will be in a terrific scheduling spot Saturday, January 25. Utah is hosting the Washington Wizards that night, and the setup couldn’t be any better for the Jazz.

Utah will be coming into that game with a full three days of rest. It will also be just its second game in seven days after hosting Minnesota Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the Wizards will be playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah after playing in Phoenix the night before. It will also be the third game in four nights for Washington, and their fourth game of the week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/21/2014 05:55 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Portland at Oklahoma City
The Trail Blazers look to bounce back from last night's loss in Houston and build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Portland is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Trail Blazers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+6). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 21

Game 501-502: Boston at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 111.071; Miami 124.191
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 13; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9; 198
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-9); Over

Game 503-504: Orlando at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 111.886; Brooklyn 118.962
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+10); Under

Game 505-506: Sacramento at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 118.825; New Orleans 115.896
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 199
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 1; 204
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+1); Under

Game 507-508: Portland at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 125.174; Oklahoma City 124.231
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+6); Over

Game 509-510: Minnesota at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.309; Utah 118.046
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, January 21

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BOSTON (14 - 28) at MIAMI (29 - 12) - 1/21/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-4 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-8 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (11 - 30) at BROOKLYN (17 - 22) - 1/21/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-3 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 4-4 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (14 - 25) at NEW ORLEANS (16 - 24) - 1/21/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 146-195 ATS (-68.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (31 - 10) at OKLAHOMA CITY (31 - 10) - 1/21/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 74-58 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 66-49 ATS (+12.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 111-74 ATS (+29.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (19 - 21) at UTAH (14 - 28) - 1/21/2014, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 6-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 6-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, January 21

Boston at Miami, 7:35 ET
Boston: 7-18 ATS away with 1 days rest
Miami: 7-3 Under home without rest

Orlando at Brooklyn, 7:35 ET
Orlando: 2-10 ATS off a home ATS win
Brooklyn: 9-4 Over at home without rest vs. opponent with rest

Sacramento at New Orleans, 8:05 ET
Sacramento: 3-13 ATS after an under game
New Orleans: 7-1 Over vs. Sacramento

Portland at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET
Portland: 6-2 Over away after scoring 110 or more points away
OKC: 23-11 ATS home vs. opponent without rest

Minnesota at Utah, 9:05 ET
Minnesota: 3-11 ATS after an ATS win as favorite of 5 or more points
Utah: 8-2 Over after an ATS loss as a dog of 10 or more points




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, January 21

Hot teams
-- Nets won seven of their last eight games (5-3 last eight HF).
-- Trailblazers won five of their last six games. Oklahoma City won four of their last five.
-- Jazz won four of their last five home games.

Cold Teams
-- Magic lost ten of their last eleven games (0-7 last seven AU).
-- Heat lost four of their last six games. Boston lost 11 of last 12 games, covered one of last four.
-- Kings lost three of last four games but covered five of last seven. New Orleans lost eight of last nine games, but covered four of last five.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last six games.

Series records
-- Nets won four of last five games with Orlando.
-- Heat won five of last seven games with Boston, but Celtics covered the last four meetings.
-- Pelicans won four of last five games with Sacramento.
--Thunder is 0-2 vs Portland this year, losing by 7-4 points.
-- Minnesota beat Jazz by 26 Saturday, its first win in last six games vs Utah.

Totals
-- 10 of last 11 Orlando road games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over total. 14 of 21 Boston road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six New Orleans games.
-- 15 of 21 Portland road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Utah games went over the total.




NBA

Tuesday, January 21

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
BOSTON vs. MIAMI
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Boston is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games at home
Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

7:30 PM
ORLANDO vs. BROOKLYN
Orlando is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Orlando's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Brooklyn's last 11 games when playing at home against Orlando

8:00 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. NEW ORLEANS
Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
New Orleans is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Sacramento

8:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Portland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Portland is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Portland

9:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. UTAH
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Minnesota


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NBA

Tuesday, January 21

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Trail Blazers at Thunder:: What bettors need to know
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Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, 216.5)

Kevin Durant attempts to run his streak of consecutive 30-point outings to eight when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday in a battle of Western Conference heavyweights. Durant has been on a tremendous scoring spree this month, setting an NBA-season high with 54 points last Friday against Golden State and scoring 48 on two other occasions. Portland had won five straight games before falling to the Houston Rockets on Monday.

Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum reinjured his fractured left middle finger in the loss to the Rockets and said after the contest that he will probably need a new splint if he is to attempt to play against the Thunder. Forward LaMarcus Aldridge had 27 points and 20 rebounds for his third 20-20 outing of this season and fifth in his career. The Thunder will be gunning for Portland in this contest after losing the first two meetings this season; the two teams are tied for second place in the Western Conference, one game behind the San Antonio Spurs.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, CSN Northwest (Portland), FSN Oklahoma (Oklahoma City)

LINE: The Thunder opened as 5,5-point home faves. The total opened at 216.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Portland (-11.5) - Oklahoma City (-12.5) + home court (-3) = Oklahoma City -4

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (31-10, 24-17 ATS): Guard Damian Lillard had 24 points in the loss to the Rockets and his 131 3-pointers are the most in history for a player through his team’s first 41 games. Ray Allen made 130 3-pointers in Boston’s first 41 games of the 2005-06 campaign. Lillard is a little bit more concerned with how Portland bounces back as the effort wasn’t always top-notch against Houston. “They were beating us to all the loose balls and they were playing free and easy and getting whatever they wanted,” Lillard said afterward.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (31-10, 23-18 ATS): While Durant has been carrying the offense, power forward Serge Ibaka scored 20 points on 9-of-13 shooting against Sacramento on Sunday. It was the third straight game in which Ibaka scored 20 or more and he is 27-of-37 shooting during the stretch. “He is a guy that excels off of playing everybody else,” Durant said of Ibaka. “He gives himself up by setting screens and rolls to the rim and the ball finds him. He sets great screens and moves the defense. He shifts the defense with his hard rolls to the basket and you have to respect his jumper.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 19-5-2 in the last 26 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
* Trail Blazers are 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Trail Blazers had lost seven straight games against the Thunder prior to this season’s two victories.

2. Aldridge is averaging 31.5 points and 13.5 rebounds against Oklahoma City this season.

3. Oklahoma City PG Reggie Jackson is averaging 17.5 points over the past four games and has reached double digits in eight of the last nine outings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/21/2014 06:30 PM

January's Record

*****............. 23 - 20

DOUBLE PLAYS....11 - 14

TRIPLE PLAYS.....8 - 10 - 1


Tuesday, January 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Orlando - 7:30 PM ET Orlando +9 500 *****
Brooklyn - Over 193.5 500

Boston - 7:30 PM ET Boston +9.5 500
Miami - Over 196.5 500

Sacramento - 8:00 PM ET Sacramento -1.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
New Orleans - Under 205.5 500

Portland - 8:00 PM ET Portland +6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Oklahoma City - Under 214.5 500

Minnesota - 9:00 PM ET Minnesota -4 500 *****
Utah - Under 202.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/22/2014 01:05 AM

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best NBA spot bet opportunities


Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Covers Expert Steve Merril points out the best spot bet opportunities on the NBA schedule this week:

Letdown spot

Denver was in terrible form for the entire month of December. The Nuggets went 5-10 SU and ATS during the month. The first two weeks of January were strong, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, but the Nuggets have lost back-to-back games coming into Thursday’s game in Portland.

The Nuggets will have three full days of rest going into that game, and then they have Friday off before hosting Indiana Saturday night. That’s two Class-A teams in back-to-back games. On Sunday, the Nuggets will play at Sacramento, so Denver may not be too sharp after playing the Blazers and Pacers in their previous two contests.

Lookahead spot

Indiana began a five-game West Coast road trip at Golden State Monday night. The Pacers will play in Phoenix Wednesday, in Sacramento Friday, and then at Denver Saturday. In that sequence, Indiana will face just one bad team, and that’s the Kings.

Indiana just beat Sacramento 116-92 at home on January 14. That game was never close, as the Pacers led by as many as 29 points. After facing the Warriors and Suns, Indiana will play the Kings on the first night of a back-to-back set before playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver. The Pacers will be looking ahead to the Nuggets, especially since they just crushed the Kings by 24 points in their previous meeting.

Schedule spot

The Utah Jazz have had a miserable season, but they will be in a terrific scheduling spot Saturday, January 25. Utah is hosting the Washington Wizards that night, and the setup couldn’t be any better for the Jazz.

Utah will be coming into that game with a full three days of rest. It will also be just its second game in seven days after hosting Minnesota Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the Wizards will be playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah after playing in Phoenix the night before. It will also be the third game in four nights for Washington, and their fourth game of the week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/23/2014 03:50 PM

Hoop Trends - Thursday

January 23, 2014


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Heat are 0-10 ATS (-11.15 ppg) since May 06, 2013 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nuggets are 10-0 OU (15.2 ppg) since Feb 23, 2008 on the road off a loss in which they never led and did not win the second half by double digits.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Heat are 0-9 ATS (-8.11 ppg) since Dec 20, 2010 at home after Chris Bosh shot better than 50% from the arc in a win.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Lakers are 10-0 OU (9.65 ppg) since Nov 16, 2012 after a loss in which their DPA was negative and they were not more than nine point dogs.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Trailblazers are 0-8 ATS (-8.69 ppg) since Mar 12, 2013 at home after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

-- The Lakers are 7-0 ATS (10.64 ppg) since Feb 29, 2012 after Pau Gasol had more turnovers than assists in a road loss.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/23/2014 03:52 PM

Fact or Fiction

January 23, 2014


The calendar year is now said and done with, and that means that we are heading into the second-half of the NBA season. Check out some of the hot topic items heading into 2014 for NBA betting fans, as we decipher which are fact and which are fiction.

FACT

The Spurs Have Some Real Problems To Deal With: When forward Kawhi Leonard went down with a hand injury on Wednesday, the Spurs really needed to sweat. They've got a tough schedule ahead, the Rodeo Road Trip isn't all that far in the future, and both Leonard and center Tiago Splitter are stuck hurt. That leaves F Boris Diaw and C Jeff Ayres as the only two men who could possibly join Tim Duncan in the paint, and all of that seems to make for a lot of potential problems in the Lone Star State in the near future.

Injuries Aren't all that Ails the Knicks: Sure, F Metta World Peace and a pair of other forwards are out right now for the Knicks, but head coach Mike Woodson has to know that his team's defense is to blame for its five-game losing skid both straight up and against the spread. Allowing 109.4 points per game in any stretch of the season is bad, but when it's capped by allowing over 100-plus to the 76ers, you know you're in trouble. The Knicks don't just need to get healthy. They need to start playing a lot harder on the defensive side of the court as well.

LA's Best ATS Team Isn't the Clippers: Oh sure, the Clips have the better record of the two teams residing at the Staples Center at 25-19 ATS for the season, but the Lakers are the team on a tear right now with five straight covers coming into Thursday. Coach Mike D'Antoni has done a remarkable job fielding a competitive team without four men who are all better than any of the starting guards which he has to work with right now. When the Lakers do happen to get healthy, they could become an even better cover side than they are already becoming.

FICTION

Portland Is Finally Set To Swoon: There has been a lot of grumbling that consecutive losses to the Thunder and the Rockets could be the beginning of the end for the Blazers, who have overachieved all season long. However, when you look at their upcoming schedule, you have to think they are going to be back in first place in the Northwest Division sooner rather than later. The only game until a Feb. 7 game against the Pacers on the road in which they'll be 'dogs is against Golden State on the road on Sunday. There's a great chance to win at least five of these next seven, if not even possibly all seven. Portland's offense can still carry it to plenty of wins. This team hasn't lost three games in a row all season long, and this doesn't figure to be the time when that starts.

The Pelicans Are Worthy of Being Unerdogs Almost Every Night: We know that games against the Pistons, Magic, and Cavaliers are probably going to sway New Orleans' fortunes a bit, but just because this team has dropped nine out of 10 games doesn't mean that it should be considered one of the worst teams in the game. The Pelicans covered games against all three Texas teams in a span of five nights, and they’ve fought hard more often than not against big numbers. The last four times New Orleans was a 'dog by more than five points, it has covered.

Kevin Durant's Scoring Run Being Good for the Thunder: Sure, the Thunder are winning games, and they are doing so because Durant is wrapping up the MVP award in January by scoring at least 30 points in nine consecutive games. We're just not sure this is a good thing for Durant and his OKC mates in the long run. Durant has played 37 minutes or more in six of his last seven games, and he has been counted on to do far too much. We saw this last season in the postseason. Durant can't carry this team in a seven-game series by himself, and with PG Russell Westbrook still out, we really would have preferred to see someone else step up and shoulder some of the burden for this team for its long-term success.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/23/2014 03:53 PM

Lakers, Heat clash

January 23, 2014


Check out more NBA Odds at Sportsbook.ag!

L.A. Lakers (16-26 SU, 23-18-1 ATS) at Miami Heat (30-12 SU, 18-24 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Miami -11 & 209

The double-digit underdog Lakers try to get a rare victory in South Beach on Thursday night when they visit the Heat.

Los Angeles has lost 13 of its past 16 games SU, but has covered in five straight contests by pumping in 110.2 PPG on 48% FG. But the Lakers have also allowed 110.6 PPG on 45% FG during this stretch, 105.8 PPG for the season (2nd-worst in league) and have been the worst rebounding team in the NBA this season with a minus-5.3 RPG margin.

Although Miami is also a poor rebounding team at minus-4.0 RPG (4th-worst in NBA) with a league-low 36.5 RPG, the team plays much better defense, allowing only 98.5 PPG (8th in NBA). The Heat also have a superior offense at 104.0 PPG (8th in league), compared to the Lakers scoring 100.6 PPG (16th in NBA), and enters this game having won three of their past four contests.

Miami also owns this series, with its 101-95 Christmas Day win making the team 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in the past eight meetings with Los Angeles. Miami is also 8-1 SU (7-2 ATS) in the past nine home meetings with L.A., winning and covering five straight times.

The Lakers have been a winning road wager this season at 12-10-1 ATS (8-15 SU), and are 13-5 ATS after playing four consecutive games as an underdog this season. But although the Heat are 7-13 ATS (17-3 SU) at home this season, they are 44-28 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons.

PF Pau Gasol (toe) is probable for the Lakers, who are still missing five guards who are out indefinitely, while the Heat will be without star SG Dwyane Wade (knee) for the fourth straight game.

The Lakers have struggled recently, but one position they have been getting consistent production from is the point guard spot. PG Kendall Marshall (10.1 PPG, 9.1 APG) has been a huge spark for this team after being called up from the D-League due to numerous injuries. Over the past six games, Marshall is averaging a double-double of 11.3 PPG and 12.0 APG, with only 3.3 TOPG (3.6 Ast/TO ratio).

Since returning from a one-game suspension, SF Nick Young (17.1 PPG, 36% threes) has exploded for 30.0 PPG (50% FG, 8-of-13 threes) over the past two games. Young led the Lakers in scoring in the first meeting with Miami as he had 20 points (4-of-7 threes) off the bench in 32 minutes.

PF Pau Gasol (16.4 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG) had 13 points and 13 rebounds in that first meeting, and averages 16.0 PPG and 8.8 RPG in 24 career games versus the Heat. Despite dealing with a sore toe, Gasol has scored at least 20 points in each of the past five contests, averaging a hefty 22.0 PPG and 12.4 RPG during this stretch.

SG Jodie Meeks (14.0 PPG, 39% threes) had 17 points in the Christmas day meeting with Miami, and is averaging 16.8 PPG (50% FG) over the past five games. His three-point shooting (44% in past five games) will be needed if the Lakers are going to pull off this upset.

Rookie PF Ryan Kelly (5.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG) has started the past two games for the Lakers, and delivered with 16.7 PPG (54% FG, 4-of-10 threes) and 5.3 RPG in his past three contests. Kelly is yet another player with the three-point shooting ability to open up this Mike D’Antoni offense that makes 9.2 threes per game (5th in NBA) on a strong 36.8% clip (9th in league).

The Heat have had their stretches of rough play lately, but they have now gotten back on track despite playing without SG Dwyane Wade (18.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.7 APG) as he rests a sore knee.

PF Chris Bosh (16.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG) has really stepped up his offense with Wade out, averaging 20.7 PPG on 55% FG (7-of-15 threes) in the three games Wade has missed. Bosh had 23 points and 11 rebounds in the first meeting between these two teams and should benefit from a small Lakers frontcourt yet again on Thursday. For his career, he has pumped in 17.4 PPG and 10.2 RPG in 19 career meetings with the Lakers.

SF LeBron James (26.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.3 SPG) had just 19 points, eight rebounds and four assists in the Christmas day victory over L.A., but is still averaging 27.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 7.0 APG in 21 career games against the Lakers. James has also been on a tear recently, averaging 29.9 PPG (56% FG), 6.1 RPG and 6.0 APG over the past nine games.

SG Ray Allen (9.4 PPG) has started in the place of Dwyane Wade, and in the three games Wade has missed, Allen is averaging 11.0 PPG on a blistering 57% FG (46% threes) and 6.7 RPG. With Wade out again, Allen should have plenty of good looks against the porous Lakers defense, and he must connect on a few of them to have Miami keep up with the high-scoring Los Angeles bunch.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/23/2014 03:54 PM

Thursday's Tips

January 23, 2014


Lakers at Heat - 8:00 PM EST

Los Angeles: 16-26 SU, 23-18-1 ATS
Miami: 30-12 SU, 18-24 ATS

The Lakers have turned into a solid money-maker on their current road trip, cashing in each of their first four games as Los Angeles travels to South Florida to take on the defending champion Heat. Mike D'Antoni's club has picked up outright underdog victories at Boston and Toronto with late rallies, while falling short in overtime in Monday's 102-100 defeat as 8 ½-point 'dogs.

Los Angeles is rolling the ball out of late, hitting the 'over' in five consecutive games, while allowing at least 100 points in nine straight contests. The last time the Lakers met up with the Heat on Christmas Day at Staples Center, Los Angeles hung tough but ultimately fell, 101-95. The Lakers took home the money as 9 ½-point underdogs, but L.A. has lost six of the last seven meetings with Miami since 2010.

The Heat staved off the Celtics on Tuesday, 93-86, but failed to cover as nine-point home favorites. That game was the first at home back from a six-game road swing in which Miami posted a 2-4 SU/ATS record, including four losses in the favorite role. Dwyane Wade has missed the last three games resting his ailing knee, as the Heat are 8-2 to the 'over' in the 10 contests he has sat out this season.

Since Christmas, the Heat has played just four games at the American Airlines Arena, going 3-1 SU and just 1-3 ATS. As a double-digit home favorite this season, Miami has covered four of nine times, while winning eight times in this role with the lone defeat coming to Boston back in November in overtime. Since starting December with seven straight 'overs' at home, the Heat has finished 'under' the total in each of the last three home contests.

Nuggets at Blazers - 10:30 PM EST

Denver: 20-20 SU, 18-22 ATS
Portland: 31-11 SU, 24-18 ATS

The Blazers return to the Moda Center following a four-game road trip against clubs that are likely headed to the playoffs. Portland won the first two contests at San Antonio and Dallas, but couldn't complete the "Texas Triangle" sweep in Monday's high-scoring defeat at Houston. The Blazers blew a late lead in Tuesday's 105-97 setback at Oklahoma City, while failing to cover as 6 ½-point underdogs to finish the trip at 2-2 SU/ATS.

One system that many handicappers turn to is going against home teams coming off a long road trip in the NBA. For the most part, home double-digit favorites in this situation are usually a good go-against bet, but what about teams in more manageable favorite spots from 1-8 points? Unfortunately this season, it is a coin-toss proposition, with 34 situations of home teams coming off road trips of three games or more and listed as a favorite of eight points or less are 17-17 ATS for a slight loss of profit. This is Portland's third time returning home from a lengthy road swing this season as the Blazers failed to cover in their first two opportunities in victories over the Bulls and Pelicans.

The Nuggets have been off for three days since Sunday's 117-103 setback at Phoenix as a short underdog, while Denver looks to snap a two-game skid. Brian Shaw's team is also playing with revenge tonight after getting drilled by the Blazers in their home opener, 113-98, as Portland knocked down 14 three-pointers in the victory. Denver's offense was dreadful that night, converting 32% of its shots from the floor, while missing 14 free throws.

Since a slow offensive start to the season, the Nuggets are picking up the numbers of late by hitting five straight 'overs,' while going 'over' the total in five consecutive games away from the Pepsi Center. However, Denver has struggled on the highway by losing two of its last seven road contests, but one of those victories came at Golden State as eight-point underdogs, 123-116.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
01/23/2014 03:55 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, January 23

LA Lakers at Miami, 8:00 ET
LA Lakers: 11-3 Over away after a road ATS win
Miami: 16-6 Over off a SU win but ATS loss

Denver at Portland, 10:35 ET
Denver: 9-1 Over in January games
Portland: 1-10 ATS at home after BB games as road dogs

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: