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01/28/2014 03:11 PM
Super Bowl Sunday weather forecast update

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos (-2, 47)

There is an expected high of 37 degrees on Sunday, with a low of 24. There will be periodical clouds mixed with sunshine during the day, before mainly clearing in the evening. The chance of precipitation is down to 20 percent and winds are expected to blow across the field at 10-15 mph.




NFL
Dunkel

Super Bowl

Seattle vs. Denver
In Super Bowl XLVIII, the Seahawks face a Broncos team that is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games when playing with 2 weeks of rest. Denver is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2

Game 101-102: Seattle vs. Denver (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 142.278; Denver 147.399
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-2 1/2); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 2

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SEATTLE (15 - 3) vs. DENVER (15 - 3) - 2/2/2014, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NFL
Short Sheet

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 2

Seattle at Denver, 6:30 ET
Seattle: 6-17 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Denver: 18-5 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game




NFL

Super Bowl

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. DENVER
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games


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NFL

Sunday, February 2

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Trends - Seattle vs Denver
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Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

Seattle

Seahawks are 13-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games on fieldturf.
Seahawks are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. win.
Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
Seahawks are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.

Denver

Broncos are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.


OU Trends

Seattle

Under is 7-0 in Seahawks last 7 games overall.
Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf.
Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

Denver

Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 13-2-1 in Broncos last 16 games on fieldturf.
Over is 24-7 in Broncos last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 40-14-2 in Broncos last 56 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-3 in Broncos last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 41-18-1 in Broncos last 60 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 49-24-1 in Broncos last 74 games overall.


Head to Head

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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01/29/2014 01:49 PM
Advantage - Denver

January 27, 2014


Following a devastating double-overtime loss to the Ravens in last season's divisional playoffs, the Broncos rebounded by winning the AFC Championship this season. Denver has put together a 28-7 record the last two seasons with Peyton Manning at the helm, as the Broncos seek their first Super Bowl title since 1998.

When many fans point to Denver's success, the first thing to highlight is the home-field advantage playing at Sports Authority Field. The Broncos won nine of 10 games at home this season, while limiting the Chargers and Patriots to a combined 33 points in two playoff victories. However, Denver put together a 6-2 record on the road this season, with the two losses coming against playoff squads New England and Indianapolis. Granted, the Broncos squandered a 24-0 lead in the loss to the Patriots, while scoring 33 points in Manning's return to the Hoosier State in a 39-33 defeat to the Colts.

The Broncos' offense put up at least 30 points in 13 games this season, including 41 points against the Giants at Met Life Stadium back in Week 2, the site of the Super Bowl. Denver won all four games against the NFC, while breaking the 40-point barrier in all four victories against the Eagles, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys.

When analyzing Manning's playoff history, the star quarterback lost his first three postseason games with the Colts from 1999-2002, but won nine of his next 16 in Indianapolis, including all four in the 2006 playoffs. In Denver, Manning has won two of three playoff contests, although he has not played on the road yet with the Broncos in the postseason.

NFL Expert and VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson has some interesting statistics that backs taking the Broncos, "The Denver offense posted record setting numbers this season, scoring over 36 points per game on the season. Those figures include two playoff games that featured lower numbers but featured the Broncos in complete control. If you take away the three games against San Diego, the one team that seemed to be able to slow Denver down, the Broncos averaged 39 points per game."

On the opposite side of the ball, Nelson breaks down how well the Broncos have performed of late, "Denver's defense does not have Seattle's overall statistical profile, but down the stretch and in the playoffs, Denver was arguably more impressive on defense. In the two playoff games, the Broncos allowed just three points combined in the first three quarters of the two games as almost all of the scoring for San Diego and New England came with the game all but in hand for the Broncos. The teams that did give the Denver defense problems were mostly strong down field passing teams, the Cowboys and Giants early in the season, the Colts, and a Patriots squad with Rob Gronkowski was some of the most productive teams against the Broncos."

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says the reliance of Manning is key for the Broncos' success, "Denver's fortunes ride on Manning's ability to make the correct adjustments at the line of scrimmage, something he does as well as anyone in NFL history. The challenge is doing it against a Seahawks defense that flies around and feasts on turnovers, so he'll have to be conservative, riding the running game and picking his spots. If he can avoid turnovers and give the Broncos a chance to steal this late, you have to like his chances of avoiding a Colin Kaepernick-type mistake in the Super Bowl's late stages, setting himself up to win a second title."

Nelson mentions John Fox's defense has slowed opponents down on the ground, "Denver actually has featured a superior run defense to Seattle and none of the last four foes for the Broncos have topped 87 yards rushing with the two playoff opponents combining for only 129 yards rushing. If Seattle is unable to run the ball effectively, they will have little chance of keeping up with the Broncos."

Favorites of 3 ½ points or less in Super Bowl history have put together a strong 8-3 SU/ATS record, as the last team in this situation was Green Bay three years ago holding off Pittsburgh, 31-25 as three-point 'chalk.' Three of the last four Super Bowls played outdoors have gone to the AFC, including Pittsburgh (SB XLIII), Indianapolis (XLI), and New England (XXIX).
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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01/29/2014 01:50 PM
Advantage - Seattle

January 28, 2014


The betting public is keen on Peyton Manning and the Broncos winning the Super Bowl as short favorites. However, Seattle's top-ranked defense may have something to say about the lack of respect shown to the top-seed in the NFC. The Seahawks own the top home-field advantage in the NFL, but Seattle shocked many people with its success on the highway this season.

Pete Carroll's club won six of eight games away from CenturyLink Field, including victories over Carolina and Arizona. The Seahawks fell short by six points at Indianapolis, while losing on a late field goal at San Francisco, 19-17. Seattle covered six times on the highway, as the Seahawks' defense limited five of those opponents to 19 points or less. In nine straight games overall, the Seahawks have allowed 20 points or less, winning seven times in this stretch.

Seattle won three of four games against AFC foes, while covering twice in these contests. The Seahawks failed to cash as three-point favorites at Indianapolis, while falling short of the 12 ½-point number in a 20-13 home triumph over the Titans. Since last season, Seattle has won six of eight interconference contests, with the two losses coming as a three-point road favorite.

In spite of the Seahawks' numbers going down offensively of late, NFL Expert and VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson points out that the defenses they faced had something to do with it, "Seattle's offense struggled down the stretch by most measures, scoring just 22 points per game in the seven games after a Week 12 bye. In six of those seven games, the Seahawks faced a team that finished in top eight in the NFL in total defense. On the season, the Seahawks played eight games against teams that finished in the top six in the league in total defense, while Denver did not play a single one. The Broncos actually only played five games all season against teams that finished in the top 20 in the league in total defense."

Taking it a step further, Nelson says the Seahawks held their own considering their competition, "On a yards-per-play basis the numbers are just as glaring, Seattle faced a top 10 yards per play defense in half of its 18 games this season, while Denver only faced one such game all season as the record-setting numbers for the Broncos came against an incredibly weak slate of defenses. Turnovers often decide NFL games and Seattle was the best team in the league at creating turnovers, averaging 2.4 turnovers per game. The Seahawks were also one of the best teams at not giving the ball away while Denver struggled with turnovers this season with 1.6 giveaways per game and those mistakes came against much lesser defensive teams than Seattle."

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero points to the weather as a positive for the Seahawks on Sunday, "Seattle is hoping inclement weather can join its pursuit of a championship. Not that the Seahawks are some sort of novelty act, but conditions that make it trickier on Manning and the Broncos passing game obviously favor the team with the top defense and power running game. If snow flurries accompany wind or rain, coach Carroll will undoubtedly be smiling while trying to keep warm, getting an assist from Mother Nature in cementing his game plan."

Nelson makes mention as well of Seattle's top flight passing defense as a major factor, "While the Saints wound up with 301 yards passing in the divisional playoff game with a few big plays in a late rally after Seattle built a lead, no other team topped 214 yards passing against Seattle all season long and it is certainly difficult to envision a scenario where the Broncos win without success in the air."

The Seahawks won their first two playoff games at home against the Saints and 49ers, but Seattle is no stranger to playing on the highway in the postseason. Last season, the Seahawks won at Washington as three-point favorites, before falling short in the divisional round at Atlanta, 30-28 as 2 ½-point underdogs. In Carroll's four postseason road games as coach of the Seahawks, they have covered three times with the lone ATS loss coming at Chicago in 2011 as 10-point 'dogs one week after shocking the Saints in the Wild Card round.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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01/30/2014 12:40 AM
Super Bowl Rankings

January 28, 2014


All-Time Super Bowl Rankings

Back by popular request are the All-time Super Bowl rankings, presented in inverse order. Beginning with the 47th and lowest-ranked Super Bowl game, and working our way to number one.

Remember, I've been around for them all!

47-XXXV, Baltimore 34 - N.Y. Giants 7 (at Tampa)...An exceedingly drab game with little or no drama, dominated by the Ravens defense, which rendered the Giants' offense helpless while holding it without a score. Indeed, the only fireworks in XXXV came in bang-bang-bang succession in the 3rd Q, with TDs on successive plays by Baltimore's Duane Starks (interception), New York's Ron Dixon (kickoff return), and the Ravens' Jermaine Lewis (yet another kickoff return). Otherwise, XXXV threatened to put Sominex out of business.

46-XXVII, Dallas 52 - Buffalo 17 (at Pasadena)...The Bills' capitulation was particularly appalling because they simply didn't seem so overmatched in this game. But their almost-comical nine turnovers precluded this from becoming the competitive affair most envisioned. Buffalo's only highlight was WR Don Beebe streaking downfield to slap the ball out of Leon Lett's hand before the latter would have scored one last TD for the rampant Cowboys.

45-XXVI, Washington 37 - Buffalo 24 (at Minneapolis)...More one-sided than the final might indicate, as the Redskins enjoyed 24-0 & 37-10 leads before a couple of garbage-time Buffalo TDs made the final more respectable. Thurman Thomas forgetting about his helmet at the start of the game portended a dispirited effort by the Bills, who lost contact early and were never in the game.

44-XV, Oakland 27 - Philadelphia 10 (at New Orleans)...A disappointing showing by the Eagles, who were down 14-0 before the 1st Q ended, contributed heavily to an absolute lack of drama in XV. Three TD passes by Jim Plunkett and 3 picks by Raider LB Rod Martin highlighted the surprisingly one-sided proceedings.

43-XXII, Washington 42- Denver 10 (at San Diego)...This one ceased to be a competitive affair about midway in the 2nd Q, when the Redskins were in the midst of the most-devastating stanza in SB history. The startling 35 points (including four Doug Williams TD passes) in that period required only 18 plays in the five TD drives and set a one-quarter SB scoring record that will be hard to top, and it was all the more amazing because Denver had looked ready to score an early KO of its own when it jumped to a quick 10-0 lead. When the carnage was complete, Washington had amassed a SB record 602 yards, and theretofore obscure RB Timmy Smith gained a SB-record 204 yards rushing. With the result a fait accompli, the second half more resembled a scrimmage than a championship game.

42-XXIV, San Francisco 55 - Denver 10 (at New Orleans)...The biggest-ever SB blowout lacked any drama whatsoever. But San Francisco's dominance was so complete, and, indeed, breathtaking, that we felt almost privileged to watch such excellence.

41-XX, Chicago 46 - New England 10 (at New Orleans)...Although this game was absolutely no contest, it was a bit more entertaining than other title game blowouts simply because the "Super Bowl Shuffle" Bears were such a colorful (and absolutely dominating) bunch.

40-XXIX, San Francisco 49 - San Diego 26 (at Miami)...Though the final margin wasn't quite as large as some other famous SB beatings, this game was every bit as one-sided as the worst of them, as the 49ers appeared capable of scoring whenever they pleased before easing up in the 2nd half. Complete mismatch.

39-XII, Oakland 32 - Minnesota 14 (at Pasadena)...The Vikings were simply manhandled in a battle that lacked much intrigue after the Raiders moved easily to a 16-0 halftime lead and cruised home. Oakland's dominance was reflected in a then SB-record 266 yards rushing, with vet DB Willie Brown's 75-yard interception return TD (captured so eloquently by Raiders radio play-by-play voice Bill King) a nice capper in the 4th quarter.

38-VIII, Miami 24 - Minnesota 7 (at Houston)...A surprisingly non-competitive game, as most figured the Vikings, with Fran Tarkenton back at the controls, rated a good chance. Instead, the outcome was never in doubt past the 1st Q, with the Dolphins practically disdaining the pass (Bob Griese only threw the ball 7 times!) and instead bludgeoning the Vikes behind Larry Csonka's 145 yards rushing. A more impressive Miami win than in the Super Bowl vs. the Redskins the previous year.

37-XXXIII, Denver 34 - Atlanta 19 (at Miami)...Denver finally got to enjoy an easy Super Bowl win in a contest that lacked any sustained drama, with the Broncos up by as much as 31-6 in the 4th Q. In the aftermath, there would be a nice "feel good" factor as John Elway, in what would be his final game, was named MVP following his 336-yard passing night.

36-XXVII, Dallas 30 - Buffalo 13 (at Atlanta)...Even when the favored Cowboys seemed to sleepwalk through the 1st half, trailing 13-6 at intermission, there seemed to be an inevitability about XXVII that the Bills would again find a way to lose, as they had done in the three previous Super Bowls. It took James Washington's 46-yard fumble return for a 3rd-Q TD to finally turn the tide, and Dallas never seemed in danger thereafter, with Buffalo providing little resistance in the 2nd half and surrendering meekly in the end.

35-VI, Dallas 24 - Miami 3 (at New Orleans)...Although the outcome was still in doubt at halftime, when Dallas led only 10-3, the Cowboys quickly took control in the 3rd Q, and Miami didn't threaten thereafter. The enduring memory of this game was controversial Cowboy RB Duane Thomas (flanked by none other than Jim Brown) and his famous one-word answer ("evidently") to a long-winded question from CBS broadcaster Tom Brookshier on the postgame show.

34-XVIII, L.A. Raiders 38 - Washington 9 (at Tampa)...Another good-looking matchup that failed to materialize, the outcome essentially decided by Jack Squirek's 5-yard interception return TD off an ill-advised Joe Theismann screen pass just 5 seconds before halftime. Indeed, the Raider dominance was somewhat startling, with CBs Mike Haynes & Lester Hayes blanketing the Skin wideouts. A number of highlight-reel runs by Marcus Allen (en route to a then-SB record 191 yards rushing) provided some excitement after the outcome was decided.

33-XXXVII, Tampa Bay 48 - Oakland 21 (at San Diego)...This game was almost more interesting for its ironies (none greater than HC Jon Gruden, in his first year with the Bucs after leaving Oakland) than any action on the field. The Raiders made it mildly interesting in the 4th Q, cutting a 34-3 deficit to 34-21, before the Bucs capped the game with a pair of exclamation points in the form of two interception TDs in the last two minutes, their 2nd and 3rd such scores of the contest.

32-II, Green Bay 33 - Oakland 14 (at Miami)...The Super Bowl concept was still enough of a novelty in January of 1968 that just seeing AFL and NFL teams on the same field was something special. Unlike the previous year vs. the Chiefs, however, Green Bay was in control from the outset and never seriously threatened. This SB would eventually gain more notoriety for being Vince Lombardi's last game as head coach of the Packers.

31-XXI, N.Y. Giants 39 - Denver 20 (at Pasadena)...This was a bit more competitive than the Broncos' other one-sided SB losses of the era, as Denver performed ably in the first half and even led at intermission, 10-9. But the game became a runaway before the 3rd Q ended when the Giants erupted behind Phil Simms' deadly accuracy (completing 22 of 25 passes!) en route to a then-SB record one half record for points (30 of 'em!).

30-XIX, San Francisco 38 - Miami 16 (at Palo Alto)...Unless you were a 49er fan, this one was a disappointment, as it failed to live up to its much-hyped "shootout" billing. The San Francisco defense, however, made sure there was no drama by muffling Dan Marino and his record-setting Dolphin offense, while Joe Montana & Co. toyed with an overmatched Miami stop unit.

29-XII, Dallas 27 - Denver 10 (at New Orleans)...What shaped up as an intriguing matchup failed to materialize as expected, as Denver self-destructed with 6 turnovers and QB Craig Morton was banished to the bench in the 3rd Q. Although the Broncos rallied briefly behind backup QB Norris Weese and hinted at a possible grandstand finish for a time in the second half, the Cowboys' arsenal of weapons proved too much, with a couple of spectacular TDs (Butch Johnson's acrobatic 45-yard TD catch from Roger Staubach, which might have been overturned had replay been in effect, and an option pass from RB Robert Newhouse to WR Golden Richards) sealing the outcome in the 2nd half.

28-VII, Miami 14 - Washington 7 (at Los Angeles)...Added significance because it was the final installment of the Dolphins' perfect 17-0 season. But the game was mostly a bore after the Dolphins took control in the 1st half, with the "No-Name" defense throttling the Skins for most of the day. Became mildly interesting late in the 4th Q after Garo Yepremian's infamous flubbed FG and Mike Bass' subsequent TD return, but that was about the only drama of the afternoon.

27-XL, Pittsburgh 21 - Seattle 10 (at Detroit)...Although there was considerable drama for a time well into the 4th quarter, XL was a bit of a disappointment and hardly a shining hour for the referees, whose series of extremely questionable calls (almost all favoring the Steelers) at crucial moments of the game distorted the proceedings. Pittsburgh did capitalize when presented with opportunities, however, and used big scoring plays by Willie Parker & Hines Ward to shift the momentum in the second half.

26-IX, Pittsburgh 16 - Minnesota 6 (at New Orleans)...A taut affair (with a 2-0 halftime score!) dominated by LB Jack Lambert and the Steel Curtain defense, which held the Vikes to a SB-low 117 yards. Indeed, Minnesota's offense didn't score, but Matt Blair's blocked punt and recovery by Terry Brown for a TD early in the 4th Q did get the Vikings within 9-6 and suggested a possible dramatic finish before game-MVP Franco Harris (a then-SB record 158 yards rushing) put the contest away, and giving beloved Steelers owner Art Rooney his first-ever title.

25-XXXIX, New England 24 - Philadelphia 21 (at Jacksonville)...The final score of the only Jacksonville SB suggests it might warrant a better ranking. But the game never had a real flow to it, there were few memorable plays, and the only enduring memories of XXXIX are the Eagles taking their own sweet time during a late drive that demanded more urgency, and Terrell Owens' post-game complaints about Donovan McNabb. Hardly a classic.

24-XLI, Indianapolis 29 - Chicago 17 (at Miami)...Arguably the best 1st Q in SB history, featuring the first-ever opening kickoff returned for a TD (Chicago's Devin Hester going 92 yards). But another SB first, almost an entire game played in a deluge, slowed the contest thereafter and exacerbated a feeble performance by Bears QB Rex Grossman. Although Peyton Manning and the Colts dominated the statistical battle, Chicago gamely hung around until Kelvin Hayden's 56-yard interception TD return in the 4th quarter finally gave Indy some breathing room.

And now, the top 23 Super Bowl...all of the way to number one...

23-IV, Kansas City 23 - Minnesota 7 (at New Orleans)...There was always a delightful symmetry attached to this surprising result, as it evened the AFL-NFL ledger at 2 wins apiece before the merger and shut up the numerous "NFL supremacists" once and for all. More entertaining than the score suggests, with the brilliant and creative game plan of Hank Stram ("Sixty-five Toss Power Trap!") immortalized by NFL Films.

22-I, Green Bay 35 - Kansas City 10 (at Los Angeles)...Historically, perhaps the most important Super Bowl of them all. No one knew what to expect, and the fact the underdog AFL Chiefs were definitely in the game at halftime, trailing the powerful Packers only 14-10, opened more than a few eyes (we know, we were there!). This one was a lot more interesting than many historians would lead you to believe.

21-XXXI, Green Bay 35 - New England 21 (at New Orleans)...Plenty of big plays, including a Super Bowl-record 99-yard kick-return TD by Green Bay's Desmond Howard (game MVP) that effectively ended the upstart Patriots' upset hopes in the 3rd Q. But the Packers always appeared in control, and the only late drama surrounded Green Bay's attempts to cover the 14-point spread (a late missed FG by Chris Jacke kept the final margin at 14).

20-XVI, San Francisco 26 - Cincinnati 21 (at Pontiac)...The early-version Bill Walsh 49ers didn't yet have Jerry Rice or Roger Craig, but they did have Joe Montana and an underrated supporting cast that was in control of this entertaining game a bit more than the final score suggests (a last-second Cincy TD cut the final margin to 5). Credit the Bengals for making it a bit more interesting when rallying from a 20-0 halftime deficit, though a dramatic goal-line stand (and a big tackle on Pete Johnson from unsung 49er LB Dan Bunz) kept Cincy at bay. Another unsung hero was 49er PK Ray Wersching, who hit 4 FGs and helped the 49ers with his effective kickoffs that consistently put the Bengals in poor field position.

19-XXX, Dallas 27 - Pittsburgh 17 (at Tempe)...The Steelers made this a more-compelling game than many anticipated, rallying from an early 13-0 deficit to close within 20-17 in the 4th Q, and might have pulled the upset had Cowboy DB (and game MVP) Larry Brown not made the second of his two picks of Pittsburgh QB Neil O'Donnell deep in the 4th Q, setting up the clinching TD for Barry Switzer-coached Dallas.

18- XLV, Green Bay 31 - Pittsburgh 25 (at Arlington)...This one teased at becoming a memorable classic, as the Steelers hinted at a dramatic comeback throughout the second half, but in the end there would be no late-game thrills as the Packer defense kept Pittsburgh far away from another last-minute miracle. Three costly giveaways including a poorly-thrown Ben Roethlisberger pass returned for a TD by Nick Collins late in the 1st Q put the Steelers in an early hole from which they could never escape.

17-XXV, N.Y. Giants 20 - Buffalo 19 (at Tampa)...Drama-wise, perhaps this one deserves to be rated higher, as it wasn't decided until Bills PK Scott Norwood shoved his last-second, 47-yard FG just wide to the right. Norwood's miss, however, remains the only really memorable play of a game that mostly bored because of the Giants' ball-control tactics featuring RB Ottis Anderson (and backup QB Jeff Hostetler, who executed a bulletproof game plan) that were brutally effective, helping the G-Men control the ball for over 40 minutes vs. the high-powered and favored Bills. Though the finish was tension-packed, the game didn't make for particularly exciting viewing in a rather tedious affair.

16-V, Baltimore 16 - Dallas 13 (at Miami)...Though perhaps the sloppiest Super Bowl with 11 turnovers (earning it the "Blunder Bowl" label instead), V nonetheless produced the first dramatic finish in SB history when Colts rookie PK Jim O'Brien nailed a 32-yard FG with only 5 seconds to play. Earl Morrall, one of the goats of SB III, relieved John Unitas at QB and performed admirably for the Colts, who still needed a couple of late picks by Rick Volk and, finally, by Mike Curtis off Cowboys QB Craig Morton to set up the tying and winning scores deep in the 4th quarter.

15-III, N.Y. Jets 16 - Baltimore 7 (at Miami)...For a long while, the historical significance of this one (first AFL victory after Green Bay wins the previous two years) demanded its inclusion in the top ten, although some recent thrillers have pushed Jets-Colts down the list. This one made Joe Namath famous after his brash "guarantee" of victory before the game. The Jet defense, RB Matt Snell (121 yards rushing and scorer of New York's lone TD), PK Jim Turner (3 FGs), and Colt sloppiness (5 TOs) also figured prominently in game that seemed almost surreal as it unfolded, since few figured the 18-point underdog Jets had a chance to stay close, much less win! (Read more about SB III on these pages online this week)

14-XVII, Washington 27 - Miami 17 (at Pasadena)...An entertaining Super Bowl that, save perhaps for John Riggins' exploits that included a then-SB record 166 yards rushing and a memorable, 43-yard TD run on a 4th down play with 10 minutes to play that finally put the Redskins ahead for good, seems to have been forgotten by many gridiron aficionados. The Dolphins didn't do much offensively (only 176 yards of offense and a mere 4 pass completions combined between QBs David Woodley & Don Strock), but stayed close thanks to Jimmy Cefalo's 76-yard TD reception and Fulton Walker's SB-record 98-yard kickoff return TD in a game that remained tense deep into the 4th quarter.

13-XIV, Pittsburgh 31 - L.A. Rams 19 (at Pasadena)...We think this one has been a bit overlooked by Super Bowl historians, as it featured plenty of spectacular plays and a gutsy performance by the underdog Rams, behind QB Vince Ferragamo, who actually led after each of the first three quarters of play. A 25-yard HB-option TD pass from Lawrence McCutcheon to Ron Smith gave the Rams their final lead at 19-17, but XIV is more remembered for the spectacular play of Steeler wideouts Lynn Swann and John Stallworth, the latter catching a 73-yard bomb from Terry Bradshaw to put the Men of Steel up for good at 24-19 and then effectively sealing the deal with another highlight-reel, 45-yard grab to set up Franco Harris' late, clinching TD.

12-XXXII, Denver 31 - Green Bay 24 (at San Diego)...Breaking a 13-year run of NFC Super Bowl dominance, the underdog Broncos finally prevailed after four previous SB failures in an exciting game that might be best remembered for QB John Elway's "helicopter" scramble that secured a key first down on a 3rd-Q Denver TD drive. Yet it was RB Terrell Davis who ended up the game's MVP with 157 yards rushing and 3 TDs, the last a game-winning 1-yard blast with only 1:45 to play.

11-X, Pittsburgh 21 - Dallas 17 (at Miami)...Though not regarded as highly as their Titanic battle three years hence, the "bicentennial" Pittsburgh-Dallas clash was a memorable one nonetheless, if for no other reason than confirming Steeler WR Lynn Swann's brilliance with a couple of unforgettable grabs (including a late 64-yard TD catch) en route to a then-SB record 161 receiving yards. No matter Swann's heroics, this one turned out a bit closer than Pittsburgh fans would have liked due to Roger Staubach's 34-yard TD pass to Percy Howard (Howard's only career catch!) with 1:48 to play, then, after getting the ball back in the last minute, moving close enough for Staubach to bomb toward the end zone from inside the Steeler 40 in the final seconds, before Glen Edwards' pick finally sealed the game on the last play.

10-XLVI-NY Giants 21 - New England 17 (at Indianapolis)...Eerily similar to their meeting four years earlier at Glendale, this one was another grandstand finish that was also decided in the last minute by a late, long Giants TD drive led by Eli Manning, and featured another circus deep-ball catch by one of his wideouts (this time Mario Manningham after David Tyree's heroics four years earlier). Tom Brady was bombing into the end zone on the final play, but a cautious short-passing game and lack of big plays limited the impact of the Patriot "O" throughout.

9-XXIII, San Francisco 20 - Cincinnati 16 (at Miami)...Lots of drama, as despite being outgained by a near 2-to-1 margin, Cincy hung tough thanks to Stanford Jennings' 93-yard kickoff return TD late in the 3rd Q and a couple of missed FGs by 49er PK Mike Cofer, and even held a late 16-13 lead thanks to a Jim Breech FG with only 3:20 to play. But the incomparable Joe Montana cemented his place in Canton by authoring perhaps the best winning drive in Super Bowl history, taking the 49ers 92 yards to the title, culminating with a 10-yard TD toss to John Taylor with just :34 to play.

8-XLIV, New Orleans 31 - Indianapolis 17 (at Miami)...More compelling than the final scoreline suggests, as the underdog Saints were still trailing deep into the 4th Q and didn't put the game away until Tracy Porter's 74-yard interception return for a TD with 3 minutes to go. Although the game lacked some anticipated fireworks, it had sustained drama, with Porter's interception and a nervy onside kick called by Saints HC Sean Payton to begin the second half ranking as highlights alongside QB Drew Brees' nearly-flawless performance.

7-XIII, Pittsburgh 35 - Dallas 31 (at Miami)...Long considered the standard by which great Super Bowls should be measured, this one featured great teams, great players, and great plays, though the most-enduring memory of XIII might be veteran Cowboys TE Jackie Smith dropping a sure TD pass that would have leveled the score at 21 apiece in the 3rd Q. It was also an unofficial title bout for "team of the decade," as each had won two Super Bowls in the '70s prior to kickoff. All it lacked was a real down-to-the-wire finish, as a belated Dallas rally in the final few minutes narrowed a 35-17 Steeler lead to the 35-31 final margin. Though the last TD, scored with 22 seconds to play, caused apoplexy for many wagerers and Vegas sports books, with the pointspread having bounced between 31/2-41/2 for much of the previous two weeks!

6-XXXVI, New England 20 - St. Louis 17 (at New Orleans)...Any Super Bowl decided on the final play (in this case Adam Vinatieri's 48-yard FG at the gun) deserves a high ranking. Though it took a while for this one to warm up after the underdog Patriots kept the high-powered Rams at bay until the 4th Q, when Kurt Warner rallied St. Louis from 14 points down to a 17-17 tie. Rather than play for overtime, however (as TV analyst John Madden infamously suggested), New England went for the win, and Tom Brady (then 24 years old) led a dramatic drive that resulted in Vinatieri's game-winning FG.

5-XXXIV, St. Louis 23 - Tennessee 16 (at Atlanta)...Last plays don't get much more dramatic than what we saw in XXXIV! And Ram DB Mike Jones hauling down Titan WR Kevin Dyson just short of the goal qualifies as at least the most-electrifying last-play in SB history. Much of this game didn't suggest such a dramatic finish, however, as the Rams moved methodically to a 16-0 lead late in the 3rd Q before the Titans started to stir. But this game came alive in the 4th Q, as Tennessee rallied to tie before Kurt Warner's 73-yard TD bomb to Isaac Bruce with just 1:52 to play proved to be the winning points and a prelude to some last-second thrills.

4-XLII, N.Y. Giants 17 - New England 14 (at Glendale, AZ)...For three quarters, the undefeated 18-0 Patriots, on the doorstep of pro football immortality, simply could not shake the scrappy 12-point underdog Giants, who used their stubborn defense to create an extremely taut and tense affair reminiscent of a nervy pitching duel in baseball. Then, not unlike the last lap of 10,000-meter race at the Olympics, both broke into a sprint for the finish line, with three lead changes in the final quarter. In the end, however, it was the surprising G-Men on top, with Eli Manning answering Tom Brady's late TD drive with one of his own that was capped by a 13-yard TD pass to Plaxico Burress with 35 seconds to play. A circus catch by WR David Tyree on New York's final drive (after a Houdini-like escape in the pocket by Eli) rates alongside Lynn Swann's acrobatics a generation earlier and the aforementioned late-game snare by the Giants' Mario Manningham four years hence, as among the best catches in Super Bowl annals.

3-XLIII, Pittsburgh 27 - Arizona 23 (at Tampa)...Although one of the chippiest SBs, big plays and a wild fourth quarter made XLIII one to remember. The Steelers looked on the verge of a KO several times, first after dominating early action, then after LB James Harrison's 100-yard TD interception on the last play of the first half staked Pittsburgh to a 17-7 lead at the break. The Cards' defense grimly kept the Steelers within earshot until the Kurt Warner-led offense finally awakened in the 4th Q, and for a moment it appeared as if Larry Fitzgerald's 64-yard TD catch with 2:37 to play would give the Big Red their first title in 61 years. But Ben Roethlisberger, who had been mostly muted since the 1st Q, calmly drove Pittsburgh downfield for the winning TD pass in heavy traffic to Santonio Holmes with just 35 seconds to play.

2-XXXVII, Baltimore 34 - San Francisco 31 (at New Orleans)...Into the third quarter, this one seemed more likely to rank low on the list alongside some of the blowout SB results of the '80s and early '90s before a turn of events with a surreal twist (a 34-minute delay caused by a partial blackout inside of the Superdome early in the 2nd half) presaged one of the most electrifying second halves in SB history. Baltimore had been cruising until the delay, up 28-6 and aided by an NFL postseason record 108-yard KR TD by Jacoby Jones, before the 49ers caught fire after the blackout and scored 17 unanswered points in just over 4 minutes to narrow the gap to 28-23. Behind suddenly-hot QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco continued to pile on the pressure in the 4th Q, pulling to within a missed 2-point conversion of tying the game, then threatening to steal the contest when a dramatic late drive reached the Ravens' 7 inside of the final two minutes. Baltimore would gallantly repel the threat, take a subsequent safety, then hold its breath as SF's Ted Ginn, Jr. came close to breaking a punt return on the game's final play in a dramatic finish that left a nation limp.

1-XXXVIII, New England 32 - Carolina 29 (at Houston)...A rare Super Bowl slugfest with a dramatic finish. Though it took a while for this one to warm up (no scoring until late in 1st half), it turned into a real corker, especially a wild 4th Q (perhaps the best 15 minutes in SB history) that featured three lead changes and a total of 37 points. Carolina, which had rallied to take a 22-21 lead on an 85-yard TD pass from Jake Delhomme to Muhsin Muhammad with 6:53 to play, fell behind 29-22 on a Tom Brady-Mike Vrabel TD pass and Kevin Faulk 2-point PAT, only to level matters on a Delhomme-Ricky Proehl scoring pass with 1:08 to play. Brady then led a textbook game-winning drive, ending in Adam Vinatieri's 41-yard FG at the final gun. Both defenses were spent by the end of the game, when the last team with the ball looked like it was going to win. Indeed, XXXVIII deserves to be remembered for the great game it was, rather than for Janet Jackson's malfunctioning wardrobe at halftime!
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01/31/2014 02:11 PM
Betting SBXLVIII Props

January 30, 2014


Super Bowl XLVIII Props - LVH SuperBook

Super Bowl Props… Betting Tips

Super Bowl XLVIII kicks off Feb. 2 in chilly New Jersey when Denver meets Seattle in a matchup of former AFC West squads with identical records.

Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet like mops on cleaning day.

It's important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the odds maker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent 'juice' edge in his favor. Thus, it's critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.

In addition, the props are designed to create added action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, director of Race and Sports at the LVH Super Book in Las Vegas.

Furthermore, it's important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay the Super Bowl is the only NFL game of the season where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.

With that thought in mind, here are some tips on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year's Super Bowl.

The Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It's fast and it takes place just prior to kickoff.

Amazingly, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip 14 years in a row until New England and Baltimore prevailed each of the last two Super Bowls.

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year's coin flip: 50/50.

Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 26 times in 47 previous Super Bowl games, with Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco taking the honors last year.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP's.

Denver’s Peyton Manning (+110) and Seattle’s Russell Wilson (+325) lead the MVP charge this year.

In head-to-head proposition competition the LVH favors Manning over Wilson in each of the following categories: -10.5 most completions; -0.5 most touchdown passes; -78.5 most gross passing yards.

Most rushing yards finds Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch -30.5 over Knowshon Moreno.

Most receiving yards finds Denver’s Eric Decker -9.5 over Seattle’s Golden Tate; Denver’s Wes Welker -15.5 over Seattle’s Doug Baldwin and Denver’s Julius (not Demaryius) Thomas -25.5 over Seattle’s Zach Miller.

My groundswell of support for is for Broncos WR Welker to go ‘over’ 54.5 receiving yards as well as ‘over’ 5.5 pass receptions.

In two career losing Super Bowl games with Tom Brady and the Patriots, Welker – who figures to be Manning’s primary underneath target - managed to catch 7 passes for 60 yards in one game and 11 passes for 107 yards in the other.

Team Scoring Tendencies

Sharp edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring average points per game scored and allowed in each quarter for each team.

Note: both teams played exactly 18 games each this season.

1Q – Denver: 7.8 / 3.4
1Q – Seattle: 4.2 / 1.4

2Q – Denver: 9.7 / 7.3
2Q – Seattle: 8.5 / 6.4

3Q – Denver 8.1 / 5.8
3Q – Seattle: 5.4 / 2.7

4Q – Denver: 10.9 / 7.2
4Q – Seattle: 7.3 / 4.2

Notice both the Broncos and Seahawks have each scored and allowed the fewest points in the first stanza. They have also each allowed the most points in 2nd quarter action.

Breaking their games down by the half we find:

1st Half – Denver: 17.5 / 10.8
1st Half – Seattle: 12.7 / 7.8

2nd Half – Denver: 18.9 / 13.0
2nd Half – Seattle: 12.7 / 6.8

Buyer beware.

Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVIII is Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch with Denver WR’s Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas a whisker off.

Over the previous 47 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 20 times. Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin found the end zone first for the Ravens against the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII last year.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.

2 For The Money

A popular prop is whether or not there will be a safety in the game.

With each of the last two Super Bowl games having produced a Safety, the popularity of playing betting safeties has increased. FYI: teams who record them are 5-3 in Super Bowl games, with 6 coming via the defense and 2 by way of penalty.

In terms of non-conventional scoring (sans touchdowns, field goals and extra points), safeties (8 – one every 5.87 games) rank only behind kickoffs for a touchdown (9 – one every 5.22 games), and just ahead of 2-point conversions (6 – one every 7.83 games).

The LVH Superbook offered a safety at ‘Yes’ +550 and ‘No’ -800 for Super Bowl XLVIII. A successful 2-point conversion is ‘Yes’ +425 and ‘No’ -550.

Who Will Have More… Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular wagering option.

The LVH features no less than 48 cross-sports opportunities (up from 38 last year) ranging from Manning’s pass attempts (-7.5) versus Kevin Durrant points, to Wilson’s passing yards (-16.5) versus the Celtics/Magic total points.

College hoops gets into the fray with the Pitt Panthers points -15.5 over Wes Welker’s receiving yards, along with Marshawn Lynch rushing yards -9.5 over UCLA points scored.

Golfers are offered 7 cross-props (that just sounds wrong), the most popular of which is Tigers Woods’ 4th round score -5.5 versus Eric Decker’s receiving yards.

Soccer fanatics rejoice with no less than 13 ‘Who Gets More’ options, including pitting Liverpool goals (-0.5) up Wilson’s TD touchdowns.

Hockey fans can get in the game, too, with a half-dozen propositions, featuring the Red Wings’ goals (+105) going up against the Seahawks rushing touchdowns (-125).

And on and on it goes. Where it stops only Jay Kornegay knows.

One thing is for sure. This will mark the first time in 10 years that the team with the best record in the league will win the Super Bowl.

That’s a lock.
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01/31/2014 06:23 PM
Advantage - Over

January 31, 2014


Advantage: Denver · Seattle · Over · Under
Super Bowl XLVIII kicks off Sunday and the betting public is backing Denver as the short favorite over Seattle according to our Betting Trends.

The total is a little different and even though the ‘over’ is catching more tickets, you can argue both ways for this week’s matchup.

Depending where you play, you could’ve bet this number as low as 46 ½ and as high as 49 ½ points, which it spiked up to on Thursday.

As of Friday, the total is hovering around 48 points.

In this piece, I’ve listed reasons why you might lean to the ‘over.’ Along with my thoughts, I received great feedback from three handicappers on VegasInsider.com.

CD’s Angles

Denver has seen the ‘over’ go 11-8 this season, which includes a 6-2 record on the road. In those road games, the Broncos have averaged 36.3 points per game.

Since Peyton Manning arrived, the Broncos have gone 3-1 with a week of rest, two byes during the regular season and two breaks in between the playoffs. Denver has scored 34, 35, 28 and 24 points while the defense has allowed 14, 38, 20 and 17 points. The lone loss came to the Ravens (35-38) in last year’s Divisional Playoff Round.

The Broncos have only seen three totals listed below 50 this season and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games.

Even though Seattle has watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 on the road, the Seahawks have shown the ability to score away from home (23 PPG).

Denver saw the ‘over’ go 4-0 in its four games against the NFC, scoring 41, 52, 51 and 45 points.

Seattle saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its four games against the AFC this season.

The pair both played against the New York Giants MetLife Stadium this season and both Denver (41-23) and Seattle (23-0) came out victorious.

During the regular season, the league saw the ‘over’ go 49-15 (76.5%) this season.

Denver has played in six Super Bowls and the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in those games.

The last two meetings between the Broncos and Seahawks both went ‘over’ albeit in the preseason. I understand some might not weigh those numbers heavily but check out these stats.

Russell Wilson – 18-of-29 (62%) 282 yards, 4 TDs
Peyton Manning – 27-of-39 (69%) 340 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs

I know some might dismiss these number but both games were in Week 2 of the preseason and each quarterback showed that they could move the ball. Wilson’s numbers could be a tad misleading because he backed up Matt Flynn in 2012 and faced weaker defensive players. However, he was 8-of-12 for 127 yards and two touchdowns this August.

Expert Angles

Paul Bovi

For those that side with the over, that weather forecast surely bodes well for the high side of 47 given the likelihood of a negligible effect, if any at all, upon the ability to throw the football as well as kicking field goals into the crisp Jersey air. The case could easily be made for Denver's record breaking scoring average of 37.9 points per game and the multitude of weapons at Peyton Manning's disposal that are poised to overwhelm the league leading Seahawk defense, Richard Sherman and all, or so they would say. The third year player out of Stanford, who has garnered a great deal of attention in the aftermath of his postgame NFC Championship rant and was the leading vote getter for this year's Pro Bowl, picked off 8 passes in 2013 and is known to be a lock down corner and a ferocious tackler. That said, over bettors will undoubtedly cite Manning's ability to find the open receiver amongst his many targets and for the most part, avoid Sherman.

The other side of the ball features the notably inconsistent Seahawk offense taking on a Denver defense that has fielded more than its’ fair share of criticism this year, particularly against the pass, where they ranked 27th in the league and allowed a NFL game leading 506 yards to Dallas quarterback Tony Romo. During the first 14 games of the regular season, the Bronco defense was able to hold only two teams to less than 20 points, that the Jacksonville Jaguars who tallied 19, and the Kansas City Chiefs who managed only 17 in a 10-point loss to Denver on Nov. 17.In the AFC Championship two weeks ago, the Broncos held New England to a mere 16 points in their 10- point win, missed opportunities were the order of the day for the Pats as QB Tom Brady overthrew both Matthew Slater and Julian Edelman on what well could have been scoring plays. Returning to the Seahawk lineup will be Percy Harvin, who has been out with a concussion and managed to be in the lineup for all of 40 snaps this season. Assuming Harvin, who has been practicing at full speed all week, plays and does so effectively, he will undoubtedly elevate a mediocre Seahawk receiving corps into a formidable one as he combines with Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin to form a dangerous trio along with jump-ball specialist WR Jermaine Kearse and TE Zach Miller. In their 23-15 playoff win over the Saints, QB Russell Wilson completed 8 of 11 passes for 92 yards while Harvin was in the lineup and only 1-of-7 after his departure. Coincidence? You decide.

Mike Rose

You should bet the OVER Because it’s the last game of the year and the NFL must close out the season with a bang….right? On a more serious note, there wasn’t an offense in the league better than the AFC champion Denver Broncos at moving the pigskin and putting points on the scoreboard. They punched their ticket to Super Bowl XLVIII by gouging the opposition with an average of 457.3 YPG and turned all those yards into 37.9 PPG. Peyton Manning and his gifted wide receiver corps averaged better than 8.0 yards per pass, and #18 already went into MetLife back in Week 2 and had one of his better games of the season in throwing for 307 yards and 2 TDs. Seattle also paid a visit to frigid East Rutherford this season and spanked the Giants 23-0 in Week 15, so they too are familiar with how MetLife plays in terms of the weather conditions. On top of possessing one of the most dominant defenses ever witnessed in the modern era of the NFL that routinely forces turnovers, the Seahawks also happen to boast one of the more unforgiving ground attacks that saw it rush for an average of 136.8 YPG (#4) with Marshawn Lynch leading the charge. Denver’s defense did a solid job limiting the run in both of its playoff wins, but it’s yet to run up against a running back cut from the excelled cloth of Beast Mode. The league’s top two field goal kickers in Prater & Hauschka competing against one another can only help over bettors provided Mother Nature doesn’t wreak havoc.

Joe Nelson

While the Super Bowls of the 1980s and 1990s featured a heavy lean to the ‘over’ the trend has flipped with six of the last nine Super Bowls playing ‘under’. Three of the last six Super Bowls have featured a total in the 50s and this year’s game currently features a total lower than 14 of the last 25 Super Bowls despite this game featuring two teams that are in the top eight in the league in scoring offense. The Broncos were the highest scoring regular season team in NFL history and if you take away the seven games against division rivals this is a Broncos team that averaged 41 points per game. In the four games against NFC teams Denver actually scored over 47 points per game on average. Seattle was statistically the best defense in the NFL this season by most measures but Seattle did play eight games against teams in the bottom 10 of the NFL in yards per play offense and the Seahawks only played three games against the NFL’s top 10 yards per play teams. The Seattle offense was much better than it often gets credit for as well as the Seahawks has scored almost 26 points per game this season despite playing 13 games against the top 15 teams in the league in total defense. The Seahawks actually played eight games this season against teams that finished in the top six in the NFL in total defense. By most measures Denver was a very average defense this season and while the Broncos have been sharp defensively in the playoffs the lower scoring games in the run to the Super Bowl has pushed this total to the lowest number in any Broncos game all season. The average total in a Denver game this season was 54 so there is almost an entire touchdown taken off with respect for Seattle’s defense. Weather is a valid concern for what should be the coldest Super Bowl ever but weather is often over compensated for in NFL games as the field will be meticulously cared for given the huge stage and the players have advanced equipment suitable for all conditions.
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01/31/2014 06:25 PM
Advantage - Under

January 31, 2014

In our first SB XLVIII total piece, we provided you plenty of reasons why you should bet the ‘over’ on Sunday. For this column, we’ll turn our attention to the ‘under.’

Listed below are my quick thoughts, plus we have some great analysis from three handicappers on VegasInsider.com as well!

CD’s Angles

The ‘over’ went 127-107-2 (54%) during the regular season. However, the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 (80%) in the playoffs.

Even though Denver has leaned to the ‘over’ (11-7) this season, the ‘under’ has cashed in its last five games behind a defense that has only surrendered 17.4 PPG during this span.

The Seahawks have watched the ‘under’ go 12-6 (67%) this season and that includes a current run of seven straight ‘under’ tickets.

On the road, Seattle watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 but make a note that the three ‘over’ tickets came in games played indoors against Houston (23-20), Indianapolis (28-34) and Arizona (34-22). Plus, the game against the Texans went to overtime due to a late Houston collapse.

Since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle, the team has gone 3-2 with rest and that includes this year’s 23-15 victory over New Orleans in the Divisional Playoffs. Including the result against the Saints, the ‘Hawks have allowed an average of 14.4 points per game with time to prepare.

Seattle has only had one appearance in the Super Bowl, which came in 2006. The Seahawks lost 21-10 to the Steelers and the combined 31 points never threatened the closing total of 47.

Peyton Manning has played in two Super Bowls and both games went ‘under’ the number.

2007 – Indianapolis 29 Chicago 17 (UNDER 47)
2010 – Indianapolis 17 New Orleans 31 (UNDER 57)

Six of the last nine Super Bowls have stayed ‘under.’ Keep in mind that the ‘over’ and ‘under’ has alternated for the past six Super Bowls. Baltimore defeated San Francisco 34-31 in last year’s matchup, which was an easy ‘over’ ticket. If you believe this trend will hold, then the ‘under’ is due on Sunday.

Expert’s Angles

Joe Nelson

The record setting Denver offense certainly deserves some respect but who exactly did the Broncos have to play this season? Denver only played one game all season against a defense that finished the season in the top 11 of the league in yards per play defense. Eight of the 18 games for the Broncos came against a team in the bottom eight of the league in that measure. Thirteen of the 18 games for Denver came against teams ranking in the bottom 12 of the NFL in total defense as well.

Seattle was the ranked first in total defense this season by almost 20 yards per game as well as being the No. 1 scoring defense and the No. 1 yards per play defense. This is a historically great defense especially compared with the upward scoring of the league in general this season. The most passing yards against the Seahawks in the regular season was just 214 yards, the Saints did eclipse that mark in the divisional round of the playoffs but New Orleans did not score a single point through three quarters in that game, posting a total of 156 yards through its first eight possessions before getting a few late scores.

While the Seattle defense will get most of the attention, Denver has allowed just 15 points per game in the last four games despite some notable injuries. The scoring against Denver is also inflated with 30 of 33 points allowed in the two playoff games coming in the fourth quarter. Denver is currently the fourth best rush defense in the NFL in yards per game allowed, holding foes to less than 98 yards per game, on just 3.9 yards per carry, both figures that best the great Seattle defense against the run.

This matchup should play out favorably for both defenses as Seattle’s great rush offense will face a very good rush defense and the great passing game for Denver will deal with a great Seattle pass defense. Seattle has also been top takeaway team in the league, averaging 2.4 turnovers created per game and with this high number even one missed scoring opportunity could disrupt the scoring pace significantly. Add in a chance of poor weather and the added pressure and attention of this big game for two teams that were much better performers at home and it is easy to see this game unfolding as a lower scoring affair.

Paul Bovi

Under bettors will likely have to rely on the defenses to provide sufficient resistance so as to keep the scoring at a premium. Those favoring the low side of the number will undoubtedly point to Denver's resurgent defense which has held the opposition to an average of 15 points per game over their last four encounters, the latter two regular season games along with two playoff wins over San Diego and New England. While the Broncos lost CB Chris Harris and LB Von Miller to injury, the return of veteran CB Champ Bailey could very well help bolster their much maligned stop unit. Facing that defense is a Seahawks' offense which has been ordinary at best of late, having averaged only 22 points in its last five contests. In their two playoff wins that generated 23 points apiece, Seattle totaled an anemic 585 yards.

Mike Rose

The Seahawks were an under bettor’s best friend with it owning the league’s top-ranked points and total yardage allowed defenses. In all, Seattle played to low scorers in 10 of its 16 overall regular season games as well as in each playoff contest. Their games averaged a grand total of 40.3 PPG. Though Denver was largely an over team throughout a bulk of the 2013-14 season, it enters Super Bowl XLVIII having played to low scorers in five straight with the defense allowing just one of those opponents to tally 20-plus points. It just held quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots vaunted offense to 16 points and did it by completely shutting down running back LeGarrette Blount and company on the ground. If they’re able to limit Beast Mode as well, it will force head coach Pete Carroll to look to his less efficient passing game. If “Mother Nature” somehow plays a role in this contest, blustery conditions could also prevent both Matt Prater and Steven Hauschka from continuing to be the money kickers they were up to this point. Keeping numerous 3-spots off the board can only be beneficial to under bettors. The weather factor could also only force both teams to continue looking to the ground. With that the case, the clock becomes an ally of those expecting a low score with it tick, tick, ticking away.
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02/01/2014 11:03 PM
SBXLVIII - Prop Predictions

February 1, 2014


2014 Prop Sheets: LVH · Sportsbook.ag · William Hill

According to Jay Kornegay, Vice President of Race & Sports at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino, proposition wagers will account for 55-60% of their handle on Super Bowl XLVIII.

Kornegay and his staff at the LVH have outdone themselves again this year with hundreds of props available for the betting public.

Similar to past Super Bowls, we chose 10 of the most popular props for this year’s matchup and asked seven of our analysts to make a prediction.

1) Which player will score the 1st Touchdown?

Antony Dinero: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
Brian Edwards: Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Chris David: Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Joe Nelson: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (15/1)
Kevin Rogers: Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Mike Rose: Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Sheldon Frank: Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (10/1)

Consensus: Eric Decker & Julius Thomas

Quick Thoughts – Brian Edwards: I like the props that have big payouts. I want the majority of my bankroll to be on the side or total, and then I like to make small plays on the props that have nice payouts. For instance, the player to score the first touchdowns. I've hit this twice in recent years, nailing Devin Hester on the opening kickoff at 25/1 odds in the Bears' loss to the Colts and Peyton Manning. And I hit Anquan Boldin last season at 12/1 odds. This year there are four quality options in my opinion. Denver TE Jacob Tamme caught the first TD against the Pats in the AFC title game, and he's available at 18/1 odds. Denver WRs Wes Welker and Eric Decker are at 10/1, while Seattle WR and special-teams ace Percy Harvin is at 12/1. I'll go with Decker (10/1).

2) Will either team score three straight times? YES (-175) NO (+155)

Antony Dinero: NO
Brian Edwards: NO
Chris David: YES
Joe Nelson: YES
Kevin Rogers: NO
Mike Rose: NO
Sheldon Frank: YES

Consensus: NO

Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: This is always a tricky prop as scoring three straight times sounds less likely than it actually is. ‘Yes’ would have hit in 14 of 18 Seattle games this season including each of the last five games and only once all season in 18 games did Denver or Denver’s opponent fail to score three consecutive times.

3) Will Peyton Manning throw an Interception? YES (-200) NO (+175)

Antony Dinero: YES
Brian Edwards: YES
Chris David: NO
Joe Nelson: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Mike Rose: YES
Sheldon Frank: YES

Consensus: YES

Quick Thoughts – Kevin Rogers: Peyton Manning has thrown just 11 interceptions in 18 games this season. Three of those interceptions came in a Week 8 over Washington, so his ill-advised throws are few and far between. We know about all of the publicity Richard Sherman has received recently and Manning will not force throws to his side of the field. The return is excellent on this prop, as I’ll take the shot with Manning not tossing a pick on Sunday.

Quick Thoughts – Mike Rose: The Seahawks picked off a league best 20 passes in the regular season and added two more in the NFC championship game. Only four games were played to entirety without the Seahawks intercepting at least one pass, and two of those games came against cagey veteran Drew Brees. While Peyton Manning is cut from the same cloth as the Saints field general, he is well known for coming up short in the biggest of games and this one going on Sunday doesn’t get any bigger. This Seahawks defense is relentless and has no problem talking the talk, but unlike most mouthpieces, they also walk the walk. Richard Sherman and his mates will make it extremely tough for #18 to find much breathing room, and that will force him to try and squeeze the pigskin into tight places on a couple of occasions. I foresee at least one of those instances leading directly to an interception leading to a mopey Manning on the sideline furiously breaking down the printed footage on the sideline with his OC.

4) Total Field Goals Made by both teams. OVER 3.5 (+130) UNDER 3.5 (-150)

Antony Dinero: OVER
Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER

Consensus: OVER

5) Total Touchdowns Scored by both teams. OVER 5.5 (+120) UNDER 5.5 (-140)

Antony Dinero: UNDER
Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: UNDER

Consensus: UNDER

6) Total Completions by Russell Wilson. OVER 16.5 (-110) UNDER 16.5 (-110)

Antony Dinero: OVER
Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: Wilson had 16 or fewer completions in five of the last six games but in the five games in which he was held below that figure down the stretch he faced a team that finished in the top 8 of the NFL in total defenses. Denver has a great run defense but the pass defense has been shaky at times, an area made worse with recent injuries. Look for Seattle to work in some easy throws early to get the young quarterback comfortable on the big stage. Denver allowed over 22 completions to opponents per game this season with only two foes all season held below 18 and the priority for the Broncos should be stopping the run which could open up opportunities in the air.

7) Longest Rush by Marshawn Lynch. OVER 17.5 (-110) UNDER 17.5 (-110)

Antony Dinero: OVER
Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER

Consensus: OVER

8) Total Gross Passing Yards by Peyton Manning. OVER 286.5 (-110) UNDER 286.5 (-110)

Antony Dinero: UNDER
Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER

Consensus: UNDER

Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: In the playoffs, New Orleans QB Drew Brees threw for 309 yards against Seattle but that was the only time all season a quarterback came close to this figure and most of those yards came in garbage time as Seattle mostly had the game in hand until the dicey few minutes.

9) Most Rushing Yards – Marshawn Lynch -30.5 (-110) vs. Knowshon Moreno +30.5 (-110)

Antony Dinero: Knowshon Moreno
Brian Edwards: Marshawn Lynch
Chris David: Marshawn Lynch
Joe Nelson: Knowshon Moreno
Kevin Rogers: Knowshon Moreno
Mike Rose: Knowshon Moreno
Sheldon Frank: Marshawn Lynch

Consensus: Knowshon Moreno

Quick Thoughts – Sheldon Frank: When you think of the Seahawk offense, you think of running back Marshawn Lynch. Yes, there are plays when Russell Wilson buys time by scrambling and then hits a receiver deep but when the Seahawks want to make a statement, they hand the ball to No. 24. Knowshon Moreno gashes teams when they're geared to stop the Broncos' passing game. Beast Mode is the more talented and more durable running back and is at the heart of what Seattle does offensively. Go with Marshawn Lynch to out-gain Knowshon Moreno on the ground by at least 31 yards because he's, "all about the action, Boss!"

10) Will Richard Sherman intercept a pass? YES (+210) NO (-250)

Antony Dinero: NO
Brian Edwards: YES
Chris David: NO
Joe Nelson: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Mike Rose: YES
Sheldon Frank: NO

Consensus: NO
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02/02/2014 11:04 AM
Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

We've been looking at Super Bowl props in this space for the last week. Here's a look at six more of them (LVH puts out a 44-page PDF of the props available). It covers pretty much everything........

-- Phil Mickelson's 4th-round score -14.5 vs Moreno's rushing yards

-- Brandt Snedeker's 4th round score -24.5 vs Tate's receiving yards.

-- Keegan Bradley's 4th round score -1.5 vs D Thomas' receiving yards

-- Jets/Canadiens total, -0.5 vs Julius Thomas' receptions

-- Red Wings/Caps total, -0.5 vs D Thomas' receptions

-- Will Richard Sherman have an INT? yes +$210, no -$250
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02/02/2014 11:04 AM
Super Bowl XLVIII betting: Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-2, 48)

Peyton Manning has commanded center stage from the moment he was taken with the top overall draft pick in 1998 and the spotlight will never be brighter than when he leads the Denver Broncos against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday night at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium.

Manning put together the finest season by a quarterback in NFL history - shattering records for touchdowns and yards - and a victory could settle the debate of whether he is the greatest quarterback of all time. Conversely, a loss by the Broncos will drop the league's only four-time (and soon to be five) MVP below .500 in the postseason and 1-2 in Super Bowls to bolster the argument by his detractors that he continually comes up short in the big game.

Who's No. 1? It is the quintessential matchup, pitting the Broncos' top-ranked offense against Seattle's league-best defense, marking only the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the NFL's highest-scoring team (Denver, 606 points) squared off against an opponent that surrendered the fewest points (Seattle, 231).

“We wouldn’t have it any other way,” bombastic Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said. “They’re an unbelievable record-setting offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback. That’s as tough as it gets. The No. 1 defense against the No. 1 offense.” It is also only the second time in 20 seasons that the No. 1 seeds in each conference reached the Super Bowl - the last coming when Manning's Indianapolis Colts lost to New Orleans in Super Bowl XLIV four years ago.

The first outdoor cold-weather Super Bowl - and the potential for playing in a blizzard - caused a lot of teeth-gnashing leading up to the game, but conditions are expected to be relatively benign with temperatures in the mid-30s and light winds. That's a huge plus for Manning and a Broncos' offense that features an unprecedented five players to have scored at least 10 touchdowns.

“We’ve spread the ball around so well all season, so it’s hard for teams to know who to key on,” said Manning, who was held to a season-low 150 yards passing in bitter cold and high winds at New England in late November. Seattle has built a legendary home-field advantage at CenturyLink Field but like Denver, has already played at MetLife this season. The Seahawks blanked the New York Giants 23-0 on Dec. 15 while the Broncos scored 31 second-half points in a 41-23 victory over the Giants on Sept. 15.


TV: 6:25 p.m. ET, Fox.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low 40s, above freezing with a 23 percent chance of rain turning to ice pellets in the fourth quarter. Winds are expected to blow NNW from corner to corner at MetLife Stadium at speeds of 4-6 mph.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at a pick'em and immediately drew action on the Broncos, pumping the spread as high as Denver -3.5. Seahawks money came back and bought the underdog, trimming this line down to -2. The total opened 47.5 and was bet down to 47 with the extended forecast calling for bad weather in East Rutherford. However, with the weather clearing up, action on the Over has drive the number as high as 48.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.3) - Broncos (-7.0) = Seahawks -0.3

KEY INJURIES: Seattle: Jordan Hill DT (Prob. - Groin), Percy Harvin WR (Prob. - Concussion), Doug Baldwin WR (Prob. - Hip), Brandon Browner (Out - Suspension). Denver: Mitch Unrein DT (Prob. - Knee), Knowshon Moreno (Prob. - Ribs), Tony Carter CB (Prob. - Arm), Matt Prater (Prob. Illness), Sione Fua (Ques. - Calf).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "If we don't start seeing more Seahawks money we might, might have to get to Denver -3. Personally, I don't want that to happen but everyone is in love with the Broncos and with the early weather reports calling for a decent day in Jersey, getting to -3 isn't out of the question. At this point, it might be the only way to see some Seahawks money but it really will expose us to getting sided on the biggest game of the year. Going to -3 and then this game landing three, I'll be looking for work come Monday." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

WHY BET SEATTLE (15-3 SU, 12-6-0 ATS, 6-12 O/U): Aside from allowing 14.4 points per game, Seattle surrendered the fewest total yards and passing yards while leading the league in takeaways (39) and interceptions (28), including a league-best eight by Sherman. Quarterback Russell Wilson tied Ben Roethlisberger for the second-most wins (27) in his first two seasons but he did not throw for more than one touchdown or 215 yards in his past six games.

One of the reasons is bullish running back Marshawn Lynch, who has gone over 100 yards four times in six postseason games and rushed for 249 yards and three TDs in the Seahawks' playoff wins over New Orleans and San Francisco. Wilson will also get back a big weapon in wideout Percy Harvin, who played in only one game during the regular season after recovering from hip surgery and suffered a concussion in the victory over New Orleans that caused him to miss the next contest.

WHY BET DENVER (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 11-7 O/U): Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are only the second tandem with more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Add in Wes Welker (87 catches, 10 TDs) and tight end Julius Thomas (65 catches, 12 TDs) along with 1,000-yard rusher Knowshon Moreno and it's not hard to see why Manning threw for 55 scores and 5,477 yards - both NFL single-season records.

Denver's high-powered offense overshadowed a much-maligned defense that has made enormous strides and yielded an average of 14 points over the past four games since a 27-20 home loss to San Diego on Dec. 12. "We kind of made a pact after the San Diego loss," said Broncos coach John Fox, the sixth coach to lead two different teams to a Super Bowl. "Basically, everybody made a pact that we're going to be the best we can be these last five games. We've gone through four of them; we've got one remaining."

SUPER BOWL TRENDS:

* The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.

* This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense three of the four previous meetings. In addition, teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.

* The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.

* The big story in the world of NFL totals this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the Over.

CONSENSUS PICKS: 66 percent of bets on Broncos (-2), 51 percent on Over 48.
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