cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/19/2014 02:39 PM

Sunday, January 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 3:00 PM ET Denver -4.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Denver - Under 56.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Going aganist my usual saying....Don't bet aganist Brady on prime time......well its not prime time.......

Lay the points....

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/19/2014 06:05 PM

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:


San Francisco - 6:30 PM ET San Francisco +4 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Seattle - Under 40 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/20/2014 12:11 PM

Super Bowl XLVIII opening line report: Bettors jump on Denver, move odds

The biggest spread in sports is sitting on the fence, with oddsmakers setting Super Bowl XLVIII between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks as a pick’em - the first pick’em spread in Super Bowl betting history.

However, that dead-even spread may not be there for long with online sportsbooks reporting early action on Denver.

Sportsbook.ag is reporting that 93 percent of the early money was on Denver in the first 15 minutes of betting. That forced a move to Denver -1, which took 89 percent of the action on the Broncos and pushed the spread to a field goal.

The drastic move and the potential for early-bird bettors to middle the biggest game of the season isn’t bothering oddsmakers, who know there is much, much, much more to come from the betting public before February 2.

“The amount of action in such a short time doesn’t worry us,” Mike Perry, of Sportsbook.ag said when asked about the potential for bettors to middle the Super Bowl with bets on Denver (Pick) and Seattle (+3).

The Broncos looked dominant in their win over the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship, winning 26-16 as a 5.5-point home favorite. Denver veteran quarterback Peyton Manning was precise as ever, going 32 for 43 for 400 yards and two touchdowns.

In Seattle, the Seahawks flexed their muscles defensively, making a game-saving interception in the end zone to seal a 23-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship, covering as 3.5-point home chalk.

“Though I preferred to favor Seattle ultimately, with the other guys’ opinions, I settled with the original pick,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club tells Covers.

Korner and his stable of oddsmakers released early Super Bowl spreads for the four possible matchups last week, and are sticking to their original number of a pick’em between Seattle and Denver.

While Korner may be leaning a little toward the Seahawks, he doesn’t discount the edge the Broncos have under center with Manning playing in his third Super Bowl and Seattle QB Russell Wilson making his Big Game debut in just his second year in the league.

“I think (experience) is a big edge but Seattle is the slightly better team right now,” he says. “If the line was made after half the season was done, Denver would have been a big favorite. Not now though.”

Perhaps the big question on everyone’s mind heading into Super Bowl XLVIII is whether the cold New Jersey weather will have an impact or not, with this being the first outdoor cold weather Super Bowl. Both teams are used to playing in the elements.

“We saw real crappy weather earlier in the year and the offenses exploded,” says Korner. “All I can say is if it's really windy, the better rushing team will be better off.”

As for the total, Korner’s group sent out a suggested number of 49 points while online books posted an opening total of 48.

“We sent out 49. Two factors will play on the closing line. The weather and the fact everyone will bet the Over no matter what we put up if the weather is OK,” says Korner. “Just like they bet both championship games Over. Didn't turn out so well there for them.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/20/2014 12:14 PM

Broncos/Seahawks primer

January 20, 2014


Super Bowl XLVIII
Met Life Stadium
East Rutherford, NJ
February 2, 6:30 PM EST

Denver Broncos (15-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

Line Moves:

The Seahawks opened as one-point favorites at most outlets, while the total opened between 47 ½ and 48. However, the game was adjusted quickly at several spots after money moved on Denver. The Broncos are now 1 ½-point favorites at most betting shops and a handful have Denver -2 ½. The offshore outfit Sportsbook.ag had Denver -3 last night after it was flooded with Broncos money. They've moved the number down a hook with adjusted money as of Monday - Denver -2 ½ (-125).

Super Bowl History:

Broncos are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history and their first since 1998. Denver lost its first four Super Bowl appearances, while winning its last two in Super Bowl XXXI and XXXII.

Seahawks are participating in their second Super Bowl ever, with the first appearance coming in Super Bowl XL against the Steelers. Seattle fell to Pittsburgh, 21-10, while failing to cover as four-point underdogs.

Path to the Super Bowl:

-- Broncos beat the Chargers, 24-17 as eight-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Broncos knocked off the Patriots, 26-16 as 4 ½-point favorites in the Conference Championship

-- Seahawks held off the Saints, 23-15 as nine-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Seahawks rallied past the 49ers, 23-17 as four-point favorites in the Conference Championship

ATS Records:

Denver: 11-6-1
Seattle: 12-6

Over/Under Records:

Denver: 11-7
Seattle: 6-12

Recent Super Bowl History:

Underdogs have covered five of the past six Super Bowls, including outright victories the last two seasons by the Ravens and Giants. Since 2002, underdogs have compiled a 9-3 ATS and 6-6 SU record, while the 'over' is 3-3 the last six Super Bowls.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/21/2014 06:32 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (15 - 3) vs. DENVER (15 - 3) - 2/2/2014, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL
Short Sheet

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 2

Seattle at Denver, 6:30 ET
Seattle: 6-17 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Denver: 18-5 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game




NFL

Super Bowl

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. DENVER
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/21/2014 06:33 PM

NFL

Sunday, February 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trends - Seattle vs Denver
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

Seattle

Seahawks are 13-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games on fieldturf.
Seahawks are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. win.
Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
Seahawks are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.

Denver

Broncos are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.


OU Trends

Seattle

Under is 7-0 in Seahawks last 7 games overall.
Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf.
Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

Denver

Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 13-2-1 in Broncos last 16 games on fieldturf.
Over is 24-7 in Broncos last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 40-14-2 in Broncos last 56 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-3 in Broncos last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 41-18-1 in Broncos last 60 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 49-24-1 in Broncos last 74 games overall.


Head to Head

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/22/2014 12:53 AM

Super Bowl XLVIII action report: Books test bettors with 2.5, admit to inflated total


Odds for Super Bowl XLVIII have been up since Richard Sherman went bananas in Erin Andrews’ postgame interview, and the early betting action has been just as intense as the Seahawks’ shutdown corner.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the early money on the Big Game and how books are adjusting with still nearly two weeks before the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos kickoff at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos – Open: Pick, Move: -3, Move: -2.5

According to Stewart, the opening line of a pick’em lasted all but five minutes at his book. Action flooded in on the Broncos and books quickly went to -1 and -1.5. That didn’t slow down Denver backers, who quickly pushed the spread to -2.5.

Oddsmakers did their best to stay under the key number of the field goal, bouncing the juice on the Broncos before finally giving in to the market swing, and tagging the Seahawks as field-goal underdogs in the Super Bowl. Money on Seattle has started to show at that spread.

“I've been doing this for 15 years, I've never seen a surge of money come in on one side like that before,” Stewart tells Covers. “We went from pick'em and, within 35 minutes, we were dealing -3 on this game. At Seahawks +3 (-115) /Broncos -3 (-105), we started seeing money come in on the dog and again, we were able to shutdown the flood of Bronco money at that number.”

While the early bettors have voiced their opinion on the Broncos, with 75 percent of the total handle on the Broncos, Stewart and his crew aren’t sold on Denver as a field-goal favorite against the top defense in the NFL, possibly playing in some nasty winter weather on February 2.

“We made this game a pick for a reason and my crew and I believe this game is a complete toss up, so giving the Seahawks three points was just too many in our opinions,” he says.

Stewart tested that theory by dropping the spread to Denver -2.5 (-120), and only 62.5 percent of the bets made after that adjustment were on the Broncos. He says they’re comfortable at that spread because his team is high on Seattle and the fact that Broncos bettors have to lay 20 cents on the dollar to bet the favorite.

“I do believe the enthusiasm on these Broncos will dwindle as we get closer to game time,” says Stewart. “Once pundits and experts bring up Manning's sub-par performances in cold weather, I do believe we'll start to see more Seahawks money. If there's severe weather in this game, I wouldn't be surprised if the Seahawks close the favorite. But, we've got two weeks to deal with this game and this line.”

As for the total for Super Bowl XLVIII, it’s been relatively uneventful when compared to the action on the spread. Most books opened around 48 points and early action has leaned toward the Under, trimming some numbers as low as 47.5. However, Stewart says this number will likely move again – more than likely upwards – by kickoff on Feb. 2.

“This is the Super Bowl and like every other Super Bowl, we're going to need it Under because the public is going to bet this game Over as we get closer to game time,” says Stewart. “The public loves betting Over and they love betting the Super Bowl, so every book in the world is going to need this game Under and we're all dealing a bit of an inflated total at this point.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/22/2014 12:55 AM

Will Wilson struggle like other young Super Bowl QBs?

The Denver Broncos undoubtedly have the experience edge when it comes to Super Bowl quarterbacks, especially with young signal callers struggling on the NFL’s biggest stage.

Peyton Manning, at age 37, is making his third Super Bowl appearance in his 16th season in the NFL, while his counterpart, Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, is in just his second year in the pros.

Wilson, at age 25 years and 65 days when he takes the field in MetLife Stadium on February 2, will be the sixth youngest Super Bowl quarterback in history, bumping his rival, San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick (25 years, 91 days) to seventh youngest.

Kaepernick threw for 302 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and rushed for 62 yards and score in a losing effort against the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII last February. The 49ers fell 34-31 as 4.5-point favorites.

Here’s a look at the five QBs ahead of Wilson on the list and how they performed in their respective Super Bowl debuts as youngsters. None of the previous QBs racked up anything close to mind-blowing numbers in their first appearances.

1) Dan Marino - 23 years 127 days

Super Bowl XIX - San Francisco vs. Miami (+3.5)

Result: Dolphins lose 38-16 and fail to cover.

Marino and the Dolphins squared off against the San Francisco 49ers and Joe Montana in Super Bowl XIX. The Dolphins, who had 74 rushing attempts in the previous two weeks, ran the ball only eight times in this game. Marino finished with 29 completions out of 50 attempts for 318 yards, throwing one touchdown pass and two picks in what would be his only Super Bowl appearance.

2) Ben Roethlisberger - 23 years 340 days

Super Bowl XL - Pittsburgh vs. Seattle (+4)

Result: Steelers win 21-10 and cover.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were victorious over the Seattle Seahawks. But Roethlisberger had one of the worst passing games of his career, completing just nine of 21 passes for 123 yards and two interceptions. His atrocious passer rating of 22.6 was the lowest in Super Bowl history by a winning quarterback. Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback to win the Super Bowl, a record previously held by New England’s Tom Brady.

3) David Woodley - 24 years 97 days

Super Bowl XVII - Washington vs. Miami (-3)

Result: Dolphins lose 27-17 and fail to cover.

The Dolphins had a tough matchup against the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVII. At the time, Woodley was the youngest Super Bowl starting quarterback in NFL history when he took the field. Despite starting the game well with a 76-yard touchdown pass to Jimmy Cefalo, Woodley and the entire offense struggled after that, going 0-for-8 passing in the second half.

4) Tom Brady - 24 years 184 days

Super Bowl XXXVI - New England vs. St. Louis (-14)

Result: Patriots win 20-17 and cover.

The Patriots were listed by Las Vegas oddsmakers as 14-point underdogs against the NFC champion St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. Brady was named MVP in the Patriots victory while throwing for 145 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, becoming the then-youngest quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.

5) Drew Bledsoe - 24 years 347 days

Super Bowl XXXI - Green Bay vs. New England (+14)

Result: Patriots lose 35-21 and earn bettors a push.

Bledsoe completed 25 of 48 passes for 253 yards, with two touchdowns and four interceptions in the loss.

* The O/U is 3-2 in these five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/22/2014 12:56 AM

Favorites, Over pay out when Super Bowl spreads get tight


Over the 48-year history of the Super Bowl, the NFL spectacle has seen its share of tight spreads - though few can measure up to the line for Super Bowl XLVIII, which opened pick'em and presently has the AFC Champion Denver Broncos as 2.5-point favorites over the NFC champions from Seattle.

Eleven Super Bowls have gone off with spreads of three points or fewer - and the trend in those games has seen the favorite cover in a low-scoring contest. Here is a list of the previous tight Super Bowl spreads, and how those games turned out:

Super Bowl V - Baltimore (-2.5) vs. Dallas
After four straight matchups featuring heavily favored teams, the first tight Super Bowl spread saw the Baltimore Colts do battle with the Dallas Cowboys in what amounted to a defensive struggle in Miami. The Colts pulled out a 16-13 victory for the narrow cover, while the teams fell a touchdown under the total of 36.

Super Bowl VII - Miami (-1) vs. Washington
Playing in their second consecutive Super Bowl, the Dolphins entered as one-point favorites and pulled out a 14-7 win over the Redskins. It remains the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in league history, and was the fourth of what ended up being seven straight "unders" in the NFL title game.

Super Bowl IX - Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Minnesota
The Steelers were favored by a field goal against the Vikings at New Orleans, and made good with a convincing 16-6 triumph. Despite a record-low-tying O/U of 33, the teams never came close to going over.

Super Bowl XV - Oakland vs. Philadelphia (-3)
The Eagles were modest favorites in their first-ever Super Bowl appearance, but were thoroughly outplayed on the way to a 27-10 defeat. Oakland became the first underdog to cover a low spread, while the score fell "under" by a measly half-point.

Super Bowl XVI - San Francisco (-1) vs. Cincinnati
San Francisco was the slightest of favorites against the Bengals in the narrowest spread in Super Bowl history. The game was as competitive as advertised - the 49ers prevailed 26-21 - while the game came oh-so-close to surpassing the O/U of 48.

Super Bowl XVII - Washington vs. Miami (-3)
The Dolphins were considered the slight favorite against the Redskins, but came up woefully short of expectations in a 27-17 loss. Washington easily covered the spread while the game went well over its O/U of 36.5.

Super Bowl XVIII - Los Angeles Raiders vs. Washington (-3)
Washington's return to the big game wasn't nearly as successful as its previous visit. Despite being favored by a field goal, the Redskins were thumped 38-9 in what was, at the time, the biggest blowout between teams with a spread of three points or fewer. The teams nearly hit the O/U of 48 on the number.

Super Bowl XXII - Washington vs. Denver (-3)
The Redskins were once again involved in a tight Super Bowl spread, this time as a three-point underdog to Denver. The Redskins were on the other end of a blowout this time around, trouncing the Broncos 42-10 to cover by a mile and send the game over the O/U of 47.

Super Bowl XXXV - Balitmore (-3) vs. New York Giants
The title game saw 12 straight spreads of 6 1/2 points or more before this one, with the Ravens favored by just a field goal against the Giants. Baltimore stomped New York 34-7 while outscoring the O/U of 33 by itself.

Super Bowl XLV - Green Bay (-3) vs. Pittsburgh
The Steelers found themselves a three-point underdog against the rival Packers. Green Bay prevailed 31-25 in a thriller while producing the highest scoring title game in four years, easily surpassing the O/U of 45.

Super Bowl XLVI - New York Giants vs. New England (-2.5)
In one of the most thrilling finishes in Super Bowl history, the Giants rallied from behind to stun the Patriots 21-17. That allowed the Giants to cover as 2 1/2-point underdogs, though the teams were well shy of the O/U of 53.

Overall totals: Favorite 7-4 ATS; 7-4 O/U

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
01/22/2014 12:57 AM

Covers Experts' Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Pick of the Day


The lead-up to the Super Bowl can be the longest two weeks of a sports bettor’s life. Thankfully, some of Covers Experts sharpest minds are willing to hold you over with a Super Bowl prop pick for each day heading into the Big Game on February 2.

January 21

Sean Murphy - Highest scoring quarter: Second quarter +160

First (+550)
Second (+160)
Third (+500)
Fourth (+200)
Tie (+900)

Courtesy of Bet365.com

I have a lot of respect for both of these defenses. I believe the respect is mutual between the two teams as well. With that being said, I'm not expecting a ton of offensive fireworks early in this game.

As is often the case in the Super Bowl, these two teams are rather unfamiliar with one another, and we can expect a bit of a feeling out process in the first quarter. By the time the second quarter rolls around, both offenses should find their rhythm, and that's when I anticipate seeing the most points being scored.

After a long halftime, there's a tendency for teams to come out sluggish in the third quarter. As for the final frame, both defenses have the potential to take over in what I anticipate being a tight game at that point. The second quarter is pegged as the “favorite” in this prop for good reason.

Check back tomorrow for the latest Super Bowl prop pick of the day.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: