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Spread: Dolphins minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 76 percent picked Dolphins
Public perception: Both teams won last week but the Dolphins' win over the Patriots is obviously impressing the public more than the Bills' win over the Jaguars. Besides, the Dolphins are trying to get the last AFC wild-card spot and the public gravitates toward teams in "must-win" situations.
Wiseguys' view: I'm seeing even higher percentages on the Dolphins at other bet-tracking sites, so there's clearly sharp money on the Bills that is keeping this from going through the key number of three. The Bills did win the earlier meeting in Miami.
Tuley's take: I often love it when a team wins the earlier meeting and then is getting points in the rematch (and we'll see that in some other games this week), but I'm not going to bite on the Bills here as their win over the Jaguars hardly erases the fact they have mostly been rolled when playing better competition. The Dolphins are clearly playing better with three straight wins and five straight covers. I feel this line should be in excess of a field goal.
Eli Manning's trainwreck of a season reached its nadir when he threw a career-high five interceptions against Seattle, boosting his total to a league-worst 25 and matching his career high from 2010. His passer rating of 69.7 is his lowest since his rookie campaign and doesn't figure to get any better with leading receiver Victor Cruz dealing with a concussion and a sprained knee that will cause him to miss Sunday's game.
Manning is not the only QB who has been a turnover machine - Detroit's Matt Stafford has picked been off 10 times and lost two fumbles in the past five games. Three more interceptions by Stafford in last week's 18-16 loss at Baltimore continued the Lions' inability to protect a fourth-quarter lead, which has occurred in each of their last four defeats. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is second in the league with 1.449 yards.
LINE: The Lions opened at -10 while the total has held steady at 49.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+4.5) + Detroit (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -9
* Giants are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.