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Pfile Nickname spooky
  • Posts:4005
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12/29/2013 12:27 PM
All selections, analysis and thoughts will be posted on the Bowl Express Thread

SPOOKY EXPRESS BOWLING FOR DOLLARS SELECTION AND ANALYSIS THREAD


DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL

CLEMSON vs. OHIO STATE
Friday, Jan 3, 8:30 pm
ESPN


Click Here to read all our betting previews at Spooky Express

There are quite a few bowl games that really grab your attention, and I feel confident in saying that the Discover Orange Bowl is one of those games. It features two high powered offenses in the Clemson Tigers and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Both of these teams had National Title hopes, and up until their championship game, the Ohio State Buckeyes looked like they were going to be playing in the BCS National Championship game.

Clemson and Ohio State's offenses both have put up huge points this year, as they both average over 40+ points per game. The Tigers are sitting with 40.2 points per game, while the Buckeyes are the 4th highest scoring team in the country at 46.3 points per game. Their defensive numbers are almost exactly identical though as they both allow just over 21 points per game, with Clemson allowing 21.1 points per game, and Ohio State allowing 21.3 points per game.

Clemson is sitting at 10-2, but nothing is more painful than the Buckeyes losing in the Big Ten Championship game to Michigan State to lose their undefeated season, and a shot at a National Title, to end up with a 12-1 record. Clemson lost in a brutal game to Florida State in the middle of the year, and then lost to South Carolina in the final week of the season to get their second loss.
Clemson Passing vs. Ohio State Rushing

These are two high powered offenses, but they both do it differently. Clemson does their damage through their air primarily, as they are ranked 13th in the country in passing yards per game at 329.3 yards per game. Ohio State on the other side does it with their run game, as they are the 3rd best rushing team in the country in terms of rushing yards per game at 317.5 per. Which side is going to get the advantage when all is said and done?

Consensus

Really like this matchup. This line is sitting right now at +2.5 for the Clemson Tigers, but it's on the fringe of moving to -3 for the Buckeyes. Interestingly, I think that the Clemson offense is going to end up being too much for the Buckeyes. To go along with that, I feel like many sportsbooks aren't taking into account the fact that Ohio State is going to be let down after losing that Big Ten Championship game which kept them out for the BCS Championship Game. It should be a really good game and I think it will come down to a field goal and that said will be taking the points and look for the Tigers to go out on a positive note and like them on the moneyline as well. Also see this as a high scoring game and whenever that is said, you know you never know how the game finishes up. Will update as we get closer to game but no question we are rolling with side and total in this game, just a matter on how strong. Remember the side is always 3x stronger than the total and the total is always just an opinion.


CLEMSON +3

CLEMSON / OHIO STATE OVER 66 POINTS

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Pfile Nickname spooky
  • Posts:4005
  • Followers:285
12/29/2013 01:22 PM
Here are the updated results for 2013/2014 Spooky thread
All these numbers are directly from this thread and they are also posted at Spooky Express website on all the game previews. Basically the numbers are just a guide for the most part and relative to what and how you or I may have played. I will try and keep up with this when I can but will update it after everything is over to keep it real.
Remember the strength of the side plays are MUCH stronger than the totals. The system is all about the side and that is the play that represents how we do each year. The totals are just an opinion and should not dramatically effect the bottom line. Again its what I do, not what you do that counts for me and what you do is what should count for you.

This is updated thru Kansas State on Saturday.

Been shitting the bed with the totals so hopefully it balances out as we continue to do well with the system and our side plays and power rankings.

SPOOKY 2013/2014 BOWL RECORD

14 WINS

11 LOSSES

0 PUSHES


UNITS

26 UNITS WON

14 UNITS LOST



SIDES

11 WINS

6 LOSSES

0 PUSH


UNITS
(Each unit valued at 3x compared to total)

24 UNITS WON (3x = 72)

12 UNITS LOST (3x = 36)



TOTALS

3 WINS

5 LOSSES

0 PUSH


UNITS

3 UNIT WON

8 UNIT LOST
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Pfile Nickname spooky
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12/29/2013 04:24 PM
All selections, analysis and thoughts will be posted on the Bowl Express Thread

SPOOKY EXPRESS BOWLING FOR DOLLARS SELECTION AND ANALYSIS THREAD


GODADDY.COM BOWL

ARKANSAS STATE vs. BALL STATE
Sunday, Jan 5, 9:00 pm
ESPN


Click Here to read all our betting previews at Spooky Express
In the final bowl game before the 2013-2014 BCS National Championship, we get the Arkansas Red Wolves against the Ball State Cardinals in the GoDaddy bowl. These two teams both had solid years, but the Red Wolves ended up with a 7-5 record, while the Cardinals ended up with a 10-2 record, finishing with a 7-1 record in the MAC, which featured some strong competition this year. This game could come down to the two offenses, as their defenses seem to rank pretty evenly.

When looking at the numbers, the Red Wolves allow 26.7 points per game, which is just slightly more than the 24.8 points per game that the Ball State Cardinals allow. Both of these teams saw their issues come on the road, as both of Ball State's losses came away from home, and the Arkansas State Red Wolves were just not a good road team, going 2-4 on the road in comparison to their nice 5-1 home record.

The offenses are where these two teams see big differences in terms of the numbers, as Ball State averages more than 10 points per game more than Arkansas State does. Arkansas State has scored 29.7 points per game, and Ball State has managed to put up 40.1 points per game against some pretty good competition this season.

Ball State Passing vs. Arkansas State Rushing

Two different styles of offensive play in this game. Arkansas State rushes for 206 yards per game on average, which is 29th in the country. On the other side, Ball State is a top 10 passing team, as they average 333.3 yards per game through the air. Which style of offense is going to get the best of the other? That's going to be the question that will likely decide the outcome of this post-New Years bowl game.

Consensus

Currently this sports betting line has moved to -8.5 on most sportsbooks for the Ball State Cardinals. When you look at who these two teams played and beat, it's really tough to bet against this Ball State team. They lost two tough games this year, but they had some solid wins and have a very strong passing game. Arkansas State on the other side really hasn't had any very strong wins, and they also have a tough loss on their resume against 3-9 Memphis. I think that Ball State is simply the better team and they are going to show that in this game. I think Ball State wins by 10+, and I'll take the line and try and buy down to 6 for the favorites since the line keeps dropping and gives us more value. Ball State will win this game by more than a touchdown and I have been following this team all year and think this is a high scoring game leading into the National Championship game.


BALL STATE -6

ARKANSAS STATE / BALL STATE OVER 60 POINTS

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» Last 30 Days Record: 58-49-1

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Pfile Nickname spooky
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12/29/2013 04:34 PM
All selections, analysis and thoughts will be posted on the Bowl Express Thread

SPOOKY EXPRESS BOWLING FOR DOLLARS SELECTION AND ANALYSIS THREAD


VIZIO BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

FLORIDA STATE vs. AUBURN
Monday, Jan 6, 8:30 pm
ESPN

Click Here to read all our betting previews at Spooky Express
Number 1 vs. number 2. This is what we all have waited to see, and this year there wasn't nearly as much argument about the BCS National Championship game and which two teams deserved to be in the big game. The Florida State Seminoles were the number one team in the country after we saw the Alabama Crimson Tide go down to this Auburn team, and the Seminoles then won the ACC Championship game against Duke. Auburn got in after winning the SEC Championship game, and getting some help from Michigan State when they knocked off the then-higher ranked Ohio State Buckeyes.

There's no question that these two teams are the two teams who deserve to be playing in the BCS National Championship game this year, especially with the turnaround that the Auburn Tigers had, and the way that Florida State has just dominated the teams that they've played this year.

FSU finished up the year at 13-0, and their closest game was a two touchdown win against Boston College. Outside of that, they won every game by at least 27 points. They are an absolute offensive juggernaut, and their defense isn't far behind this year, as they've really stepped up in a big way to help out freshman phenom Jameis Winston.

The Auburn Tigers on the other side had a major climb to make to number two, as they were actually unranked early in the year. They finished at 12-1 this year, with the one loss coming early on in the season on the road against the LSU Tigers. They not only knocked off the Alabama Crimson Tide on that incredible last second missed field goal return, but they also beat the Missouri Tigers in the SEC Championship game, and have many other great wins on their resume.

Auburn's Run Game vs. Florida State's Defense

In terms of total yards, these two teams are both in the top 12, as FSU ranks 6th with 529.4 yards per game, and Auburn ranks 12th with 505.3 yards per game. The real match-up to watch here though is Auburn's run game against the incredibly good Florida State defense. Auburn is 1st in the nation in rushing yards per game at 335.7, while FSU's defense is first in the nation in points per game allowed at just 10.7.

Consensus

Last year Alabama was my Bowl Game of the Year and although I had to wait all bowl season to get to my best play this year its not the same. This is really a tough game to figure out. There is no way I thought the line would be this high and at first glance it would seem advantageous to grab double digits and Auburn. But surprisingly after more consideration it does seem that Florida State just may be up to the task. Both of these teams average 40+ points per game, as Auburn averages 40.2 points per game, and Florida State averages an incredible 53 points per game. Florida State's defense could play a big role, but I think that the Auburn offense will come in prepared. The line on this game started at -7.5 for the FSU Seminoles on most sportsbooks, and has moved to -8.5 in most spots. I've seen it move around a bit in the past few weeks as well. While I love the way that Florida State plays, I don't see this game as a blowout. I think it's going to come down to it, and that Florida State will be able to win it by a few touchdowns but it will not be easy and probably open it up late. I will have to wait until we get closer to pull the trigger although I do have some action with Auburn +11 when it came out and also at Florida State -7 so I have a nice middle there with my money finally going to be settling on FSU and pretty much going all in since its the last game of the year. I also like the Over some early. Will update as we get closer to game if I play the total.


FLORIDA STATE -7


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» All Time Record: 1593-1035-33
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Pfile Nickname spooky
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12/29/2013 04:57 PM
Copying this from early in the thread in case anyone missed or wants to follow up.

12/05/2013 11:44 AM

BOWL SELECTIONS

In order of team to win by the most points based on power ratings

(Pointspreads are not involved)

This is used to determine money line plays, contest picks and plays not involving pointspreads

Remember these ratings will be adjusted after the Army/Navy game to a small degree



Team / Power Difference / Team They are Playing

Bowling Green 33.1 Pittsburgh

Florida State 22.5 Auburn

East Carolina 21.9 Ohio

Marshall 20.1 Maryland

Oregon 19.1 Texas

Cincinnati 17.1 North Carolina

North Texas 16.3 UNLV

Louisville 15.3 Miami

Arizona State 14.8 Texas Tech

Boise State 14.4 Oregon State

Colorado State 12.9 Washington State

Arizona 12.3 Boston College

Baylor 11.9 UCF

Ball State 11.2 Arkansas State

Houston 10.9 Vanderbilt

Alabama 10.8 Oklahoma

Buffalo 8.0 San Diego State

Washington 7.8 BYU

Wisconsin 6.9 South Carolina

Rice 6.8 Mississippi State

LSU 6.1 Iowa

Utah State 5.8 Northern Illinois

Kansas State 4.2 Michigan

Notre Dame 4.0 Rutgers

Oklahoma State 3.6 Missouri

Clemson 3.4 Ohio State

USC 1.8 Fresno St.

Middle Tennessee 1.7 Navy

LA-Lafayette 1.6 Tulane

Minnesota 1.3 Syracuse

Georgia 1.2 Nebraska

Texas A&M 0.9 Duke

Michigan State 0.5 Stanford

Georgia Tech 0.1 Ole Miss

Virginia Tech pk UCLA
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» Last 7 Days Record: 10-6-0

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» All Time Record: 1593-1035-33
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Pfile Nickname spooky
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12/29/2013 04:57 PM
Copying this as well for anyone that missed.

12/09/2013 07:32 PM

So jumping right out of the box, Bobalou already got the power rankings started and we posted them. Again things will change a small bit after the Army/Navy game. What also jumps out are some of the matchups. Usually there are a handful of games that are considered best bets but this year before any logic, capping or consideration is done there are a bunch of games that just jump off the page. So feel free to get started on them if you have unlimited funds since you can always buy back and even have a nice middle quite often as the lines change. As always I will play moneyline when line is less than 3 and will buy the point or two to my benefit where needed. These are NOT the final selections but its gonna take a lot for the Express to move off these.

COLORADO STATE

EAST CAROLINA

BOISE STATE

BOWLING GREEN

UTAH STATE

WASHINGTON

MARSHALL

RUTGERS

CINCINNATI U

LOUISVILLE

MIDDLE TENN ST

RICE

DUKE

NORTH TEXAS

HOUSTON U
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» All Time Record: 1593-1035-33
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Pfile Nickname spooky
  • Posts:4005
  • Followers:285
01/01/2014 12:18 PM
Here are the updated results for 2013/2014 Spooky thread
All these numbers are directly from this thread and they are also posted at Spooky Express website on all the game previews. Basically the numbers are just a guide for the most part and relative to what and how you or I may have played. I will try and keep up with this when I can but will update it after everything is over to keep it real.
Remember the strength of the side plays are MUCH stronger than the totals. The system is all about the side and that is the play that represents how we do each year. The totals are just an opinion and should not dramatically effect the bottom line. Again its what I do, not what you do that counts for me and what you do is what should count for you.

This is updated thru Duke on Tuesday.

Been shitting the bed with the totals so hopefully it balances out as we continue to do well with the system and our side plays and power rankings. We are not doing too bad with our system and still on track for a winning bowl season. Its the totals that have been doing damage and we do have a few more total plays ahead of us so hopefully we get back even with totals and show a nice profit with the sides.

SPOOKY 2013/2014 BOWL RECORD

19 WINS

17 LOSSES

0 PUSHES


UNITS

39 UNITS WON

25 UNITS LOST



SIDES

15 WINS

11 LOSSES

0 PUSH


UNITS
(Each unit valued at 3x compared to total)

35 UNITS WON (3x = 105)

19 UNITS LOST (3x = 57)



TOTALS

4 WINS

7 LOSSES

0 PUSH


UNITS

5 UNITS WON

12 UNITS LOST
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» Last 7 Days Record: 10-6-0

» Last 30 Days Record: 58-49-1

» All Time Record: 1593-1035-33
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Pfile Nickname spooky
  • Posts:4005
  • Followers:285
01/04/2014 12:46 PM
Here are the updated results for 2013/2014 Spooky thread
All these numbers are directly from this thread and they are also posted at Spooky Express website on all the game previews. Basically the numbers are just a guide for the most part and relative to what and how you or I may have played. I will try and keep up with this when I can but will update it after everything is over to keep it real.
Remember the strength of the side plays are MUCH stronger than the totals. The system is all about the side and that is the play that represents how we do each year. The totals are just an opinion and should not dramatically effect the bottom line. Again its what I do, not what you do that counts for me and what you do is what should count for you.

This is updated thru Oklahoma State on Friday.

As I stated a few days ago been doing a lot of over thinking this bowl season which has bit me in the ass. The system and power ratings have worked out very well, including Iowa, Michigan State, Central Florida among a few that I never followed. Shame on me. How I played Stanford when I had Michigan State winning I dont know but I have to stand behind that. The totals have bounced back nicely cashing the last 3 and two of them being huge plays. Been another winning season and truly outside of a few mistakes it would have been that much better. Here is how we stand here on the BangtheBook forum and on the Spooky Express website which is updated by Frank Benjamin and Ryan K our writer.

SPOOKY 2013/2014 BOWL RECORD

26 WINS

20 LOSSES

0 PUSHES


UNITS

56 UNITS WON

30 UNITS LOST



SIDES

19 WINS

14 LOSSES

0 PUSH


UNITS
(Each unit valued at 3x compared to total)

44 UNITS WON (3x = 132)

24 UNITS LOST (3x = 72)



TOTALS

7 WINS

7 LOSSES

0 PUSH


UNITS

13 UNITS WON

12 UNITS LOST
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» Last 7 Days Record: 10-6-0

» Last 30 Days Record: 58-49-1

» All Time Record: 1593-1035-33
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Pfile Nickname spooky
  • Posts:4005
  • Followers:285
01/06/2014 01:49 PM
Here are the updated results for 2013/2014 Spooky thread
All these numbers are directly from this thread and they are also posted at Spooky Express website on all the game previews. Basically the numbers are just a guide for the most part and relative to what and how you or I may have played. I will try and keep up with this when I can but will update it after everything is over to keep it real.
Remember the strength of the side plays are MUCH stronger than the totals. The system is all about the side and that is the play that represents how we do each year. The totals are just an opinion and should not dramatically effect the bottom line. Again its what I do, not what you do that counts for me and what you do is what should count for you.

This is updated thru Ball State on Friday.

As I stated a few days ago been doing a lot of over thinking this bowl season which has bit me in the ass. The system and power ratings have worked out very well, including Iowa, Michigan State, Syracuse, Central Florida among a few that I never followed. Shame on me. How I played Stanford when I had Michigan State winning I dont know but I have to stand behind that. Been another winning season but nothing like it should have been or what I am accustomed to and truly outside of a few mistakes it would have been that much better. Here is how we stand here on the BangtheBook forum and on the Spooky Express website which is updated by Frank Benjamin and Ryan K our writer.

SPOOKY 2013/2014 BOWL RECORD

26 WINS

23 LOSSES

0 PUSHES


UNITS

56 UNITS WON

36 UNITS LOST



SIDES

19 WINS

16 LOSSES

0 PUSH


UNITS
(Each unit valued at 3x compared to total)

44 UNITS WON (3x = 132)

27 UNITS LOST (3x = 81)



TOTALS

7 WINS

8 LOSSES

0 PUSH


UNITS

13 UNITS WON

15 UNITS LOST
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» Last 7 Days Record: 10-6-0

» Last 30 Days Record: 58-49-1

» All Time Record: 1593-1035-33
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