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Pfile Nickname dietz
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12/23/2013 11:44 AM
Virginia Tech has always been a good bowl team. UCLA is probably one of the BEST teams in making second half adjustments in the country, especially on defense. If you look at their season, they have only let up 13 or more points in second half to Oregon and Stanford, both on the road, and who can hold those teams down all 4 quarters.
They have only let up 50 second half points in the last 5 games, and 14 of those were second string defenses late in the 4th.
Beamer ball is special teams and turnovers, but I don't see that against this UCAL team.
If UCLA can get healthy for this game it wont be close. Lots of key injuries second half of year.
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12/23/2013 02:52 PM
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SPOOKY EXPRESS BOWLING FOR DOLLARS SELECTION AND ANALYSIS THREAD


BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL

KANSAS STATE vs. MICHIGAN
Saturday, Dec. 28, 10:15 pm
ESPN

Kansas State and head coach Bill Snyder have not won a bowl game in over a decade, which is very surprising thinking about some of the strong teams that they've had in years past. This year won't be an easy one either, as they are going up against a team in the Michigan Wolverines who started this year filled with big goals, goals that they simply didn't come close to hitting. Now, the Wolverines are looking to end the year on a high note, after going 7-5 this year, the same record as a Kansas State teams who had similar hefty goals for their program.

While both teams were 7-5, they were actually pretty similar on paper as well.The Wolverines' balanced offensive attack was led by quarterback Devin Gardner. But Gardner was ruled out by Coach Hoke Thursday.Shane Morris will make his first collegiate start for Big Blue when they face Kansas State.

It's safe to say that in terms of stats neither team really jumps off the page with what they do on the offensive side of the ball, but they've both had some nice wins, and some tough losses as well.

For Michigan, when looking at their losses you'll see that they lost to Penn State in four overtimes, Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa, and Ohio State this year. All of those losses are respectable, but they are also the reason why this team isn't playing in a bigger bowl, since they couldn't grab one or two of those big wins. But that all changes now with Morris making the start.

Kansas State on the other side started their year off in a rough way, by losing to North Dakota State at home. They bounced back though before suffering losses to Texas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Oklahoma, all of which are respectable losses as well.
Offensive Play

These two teams are even in quite a few ways, but one that definitely sticks out is their offensive power. Both teams can really score, as we saw them average similar numbers in points per game. Michigan put up an average of 33.8 points per game, and Kansas State scored 33.4 points per game on average. It'll be interesting to see how Michigan's offenses does with a new quarterback under center in the Buffalo Wild Wings bowl.
Consensus

Very, very tough game to call here before the injury to Gardner was announced. Spooky projected this one right around the opening number and thought it would come down to motivation. While both teams are going to want it, the Wolverines suffered that brutal loss to Ohio State where they missed a two point conversion for a shot to win the game and now their dual-threat quarterback is out.

I think that Kansas State comes out with nothing to lose and pulls out this win as we posted a week ago. Kansas State should win this game by a bit more than a field goal and they have a tremendous edge on the coaching sidelines as well. So I am on Kansas State moneyline. Kansas St on the moneyline was the play a few weeks ago and the injury only helps the play. However, you will be laying a bunch on the moneyline. While it is hard to suggest the pointspread when that isn't what I originally played, you could play a teaser with Kansas St and Louisville - though that isn't my play. That is just a thought. Either way I do feel comfortable laying the points and really like the OVER in a high scoring game today. As posted all over the sides are where the play is and the totals are only opinions whether strong or not. Make sure you play the sides 3x as strong as any totals.



KANSAS STATE PK (moneyline)

KANSAS STATE -6

KANSAS STATE / MICHIGAN OVER 51 POINTS

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12/23/2013 02:59 PM
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BELK BOWL

NORTH CAROLINA vs. CINCINNATI
Saturday, Dec. 28, 3:20 pm
ESPN

North Carolina won five of its final six games to become bowl eligible after starting 1-5 and was rewarded with its fourth trip to the Belk Bowl on Dec. 28 where it will meet Cincinnati. The Tar Heels became only the sixth team since the regular season expanded to 12 games in 2006 to start the season so poorly and make a bowl game. North Carolina, which did not participate in the postseason last year due to bowl sanctions, is searching for just its second bowl win since 2001. Cincinnati will end its season in Charlotte for the second straight season against an opponent from the state of North Carolina after defeating Duke 48-34 in last year’s contest. With newly hired Tommy Tuberville acting as a “watching head coach” (as he called it in a recent press conference), the Bearcats won despite the departure of coach Butch Jones and both of his coordinators after they accepted similar positions at Tennessee. Despite a decided home-field advantage, the Tar Heels are still in search of their first Belk Bowl victory.

The Bearcats – winners of six of seven – are striving for their sixth 10-win season in the last seven years after coming up short in an overtime loss to conference champion Louisville. Brendon Kay directs the passing attack while Cincinnati is one of five teams in the FBS holding opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing per game. While Cincinnati has typically been proficient offensively, it hasn’t always been efficient, committing at least two turnovers in four straight contests and eight times overall this season.

The Tar Heels - Marquise Williams filled in admirably once starting quarterback Bryn Renner was lost for the season in early November, while leading the Tar Heels to a 3-1 finish. Eric Ebron who has already announced he will enter May’s NFL Draft, is widely considered to be the best tight end in the country. Freshman Ryan Switzer tied the ACC single-season record with four punt return touchdowns in only three games.

Cincinnati should win by more than 2 touchdowns and really dont see this game being close. This right now is one of my favorite picks. Really like the Cinci defense and think if they have a decent game plan they should roll. What a great moneyline dog for us to jump all over. Will update as we get closer to game.


CINCINNATI +4

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12/23/2013 03:30 PM
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VALERO ALAMO BOWL

TEXAS vs. OREGON
Monday, Dec. 30, 6:45 pm
ESPN

Texas coach Mack Brown's swan song with the Longhorns comes against the 12th-ranked Oregon Ducks in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Dec. 30 in San Antonio. Texas announced Dec. 14 that Brown will step down after 16 seasons, during which he has compiled a 158-47 record - making him the second-winningest coach in the program's rich history behind Darrell Royal . Brown led the Longhorns to two Big 12 titles and the 2005 national championship, but Texas struggled to a 30-20 record over the past four seasons. Oregon went from national championship contender to having its streak of four straight BCS bowls snapped thanks to November losses at Stanford and Arizona, but the Ducks say they won't lack motivation despite the lower-tier postseason invitation. The Ducks' up-tempo spread offense is similar to the system employed by Baylor, which rolled up 508 total yards in a 30-10 win over the Longhorns in the regular-season finale. Texas will need defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat - the Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year - to be a constant fixture in the backfield to disrupt Oregon's timing and give the Longhorns a chance to keep pace on the scoreboard.

OREGON - Even with former coach Chip Kelly gone to the NFL, the Ducks continue to put up prolific offensive numbers, ranking second in the nation in total yards and third in scoring. Quarterback Marcus Mariota's Heisman Trophy candidacy fizzled when the threw four interceptions and fumbled five times in the last four games of the regular season, but expects to be fully recovered from a lingering knee injury for the bowl game. The Ducks will be without tight end Pharaoh Brown, who was suspended for his role in a snowball fight on campus that escalated and resulted in innocent bystanders being pelted with snowballs, but he is a minor player in the passing game as eight Ducks have more receptions with Josh Huff leading the way.

TEXAS - The Longhorns were written off early after losses to BYU and Mississippi but rebounded in conference play and found themselves in Big 12 title game against Baylor in the season finale. The offense is built around the running game with Malcolm Brown leading the way since Johnathan Gray's season-ending injury, but Texas struggles when playing from behind because of quarterback Case McCoy's inconsistency. The defense has scuffled against strong rushing teams - allowing 200 or more yards four times, including a whopping 550 yards against Brigham Young - so it might have its hands full against Oregon's read option.

The question is whether the real Oregon team show up or which is the real Oregon team. Either way I see the Ducks winning by almost 3 touchdowns. So I would be the most surprised person if they don't win this game and only concern would be a back door cover as Mack Brown heads into the sunset. I see Oregon possibly jumping out early so take a shot on a 1st quarter play and lets press this bet and look for Oregon to show up tonight and bring home a big winner. You may want to tease this with Arizona State as well if you didnt get down early in the week as advertised.


OREGON -13

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12/23/2013 04:06 PM
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ADVOCARE V100 INDEPENDENCE BOWL

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. ARIZONA
Tuesday, Dec. 31, 12:30 pm
ESPN

Two of the stronger running teams in college football are going at it in the AdvoCare V100 bowl game. The Arizona Wildcats and the Boston College Eagles both are sitting with 7-5 records coming into this game, and their numbers across the board are actually pretty similar. Offensively the Wildcats and Eagles average 32.8 points per game and 28.4 points per game respectively, with Arizona being the higher scoring of the two.

On the defensive side of things, Arizona's defense has been a bit better, which is surprising considering all of the ridiculously good offenses that the Wildcats had to play this year. The Wildcats most recently knocked off a strong Oregon team, holding them to only 16 points. They've definitely improved from the start of the year, but they'll have to find a way to stop Heisman Trophy Finalist, Andre Williams, who topped 2,100 yards this year.

Boston College's defense allowed 27.8 points per game this season, and they were a far better team at home than they were on the road. The Eagles were 5-1 at home, and they were 2-4 on the road, but obviously a neutral site shouldn't factor too much into this.

Rushing Yards

You can't top finding two top 20 rushing offenses going at it in a bowl game. The Wildcats rank 11th in the country in running at 265.8 yards per game, while the Eagles are 20th in the country at 218.1 yards per game. Obviously Williams has really carried the load for the Eagles this year, while the Wildcats have gotten production across the board when running the ball. It'll be interesting to see which defense is going to be able to slow down their opponent.

The early sports betting line on this one is actually moving around a bit. We've seen Arizona move around between -6.5 to -7.5 for the Wildcats. The Wildcats are getting the bulk of the love here, and I think that's definitely right. They are a better, well-rounded team, but they also have played tougher competition than the Eagles have this year. If I can get this betting line at -6 on a sportsbook then I'll be on the Wildcats to get a win and a cover of the spread. I'm not a huge fan of laying 7.5 or 14.5 or numbers that are a half point off of key numbers, so I'm definitely interesting in moving the line if it doesn't go in our direction. Regardless, I like Arizona in this game to get a win, and I'll take them to cover a touchdown. Arizona should roll in this game and win by almost a couple touchdowns. I would definitely buy this down to 6 or lower but this should be a play nonetheless along with playing the Under. The totals have been horrible this bowl season but again they are only opinions so you must play 3x stronger on the side play. I am sure we will have a lot of winning totals upcoming to balance out the sheet. GL


ARIZONA -6

ARIZONA / BOSTON COLLEGE UNDER 58 POINTS

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12/23/2013 04:21 PM
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SPOOKY EXPRESS BOWLING FOR DOLLARS SELECTION AND ANALYSIS THREAD


AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL

RICE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Tuesday, Dec. 31, 4:00 pm
ESPN

Rice picked up its first outright conference title since 1957 with a victory in the Conference-USA championship game and is headed to a bowl game in consecutive seasons for the second time in school history. The Owls’ reward for a strong season is a date with Mississippi State in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn., on Dec. 31. The Bulldogs needed to pull out overtime victories in their final two games to gain bowl eligibility. Rice coach David Bailiff was named C-USA Coach of the year by his peers after guiding the Owls to the second 10-win season in school history and can set a record with an 11th triumph. Rice ended the season with four straight wins, including a 41-24 triumph over Marshall in the C-USA championship game, and will go after the Bulldogs defense with a strong running attack. Mississippi State endured a particularly brutal regular-season schedule and counts its six losses against ranked teams Oklahoma State, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Alabama. Quarterback Dak Prescott returned late in the season-ending win over rival Mississippi after a two-game absence due to a nerve injury in his non-throwing shoulder and should be healthy for the bowl game.

RICE - The Owls average 240.2 yards on the ground and Charles Ross ended up with 1,252 rushing yards despite missing a pair of games in the middle of the season. Quarterback Taylor McHargue finished second on the team in rushing and guided a passing attack that tied for the fewest interceptions in C-USA with nine. The coach knows they are in for a big challenge but that is what is exciting them.

MISSISSIPPI STATE - Prescott led the team in passing and rushing and came off the bench in the fourth quarter to lead the tying field-goal drive in regulation before diving into the end zone for the winning touchdown in overtime against Ole Miss. That score made the Bulldogs bowl eligible for the fourth straight season and eliminated questions about coach Dan Mullen’s job security.

This seems like a fun game, SEC vs Rice. Seems like the SEC should laugh at this matchup. But I dont see it that way. Rice is gonna win this game by a touchdown and then you can explain how the SEC is one touchdown favored. I think this looks like a moneyline underdog winner. Will update as we get closer to game.


RICE -12

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12/23/2013 04:30 PM
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CHIC-FIL-A BOWL

DUKE vs. TEXAS A&M
Tuesday, Dec. 31, 8:00 pm
ESPN

Johnny Manziel could play his final collegiate game when Texas A&M meets Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year's Eve in Atlanta. Manziel, who burst onto the scene to become the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy in 2012, finished fifth in the voting this season and said he will seek feedback from the NFL before declaring for the draft deadline. If Manziel learns he may not be selected in the first round, he said he would probably return to Texas A&M. Duke coach Dave Cutcliffe continues to turn around the program, which is making its second straight bowl appearance for the first time in school history. Most of the current Blue Devils got their feet wet in the postseason with a 48-34 loss to Cincinnati in the 2012 Belk Bowl, but sharing the stage with the Aggies is a far bigger step. It is expected to be a high-scoring affair with the total betting line set at 73.5. Texas A&M is sixth in the nation in scoring but 88th among the 123 FBS teams at points allowed. Duke averages 31.6 points scored and 24.7 against, but struggled to stop the No. 2 scoring offense in its 45-7 loss to top-ranked Florida State in the ACC championship game

DUKE - The Blue Devils won the Coastal Division crown - their first championship of any kind since sharing the ACC title with Virginia in 1989 - by winning their final six regular-season conference contests before having their eight-game win streak halted by the Seminoles. Cutcliffe has enjoyed the luxury of a two-quarterback system featuring juniors Brandon Connette who has a team-leading 13 rushing touchdowns, and Anthony Boone. Wide receiver Jamison Crowder was joined by linebacker Kelby Brown, safety Jeremy Cash and cornerback Ross Cockrell are on the All-ACC first team.

TEXAS A&M - Manziel recorded another strong season statistically but wasn't able to lead the Aggies to a victory over their four toughest opponents - Auburn, Alabama, Missouri or LSU. Manziel also rushed for a team-leading 686 yards and eight touchdowns, but did most of his damage throwing the ball to Mike Evans. The Aggies are 15-19 in bowl games after their 41-19 victory over Oklahoma in last season's Cotton Bowl and are making their fifth consecutive bowl appearance.

In terms of total yards per game and passing yards per game, it's dominated by the Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies average 538.2 yards per game in total, which is 4th best in the nation, and their passing game averages 350.9 yards per game (8th best) thanks to Johnny Manziel. The Aggies are sitting as -11.5 point betting favorites on most sportsbooks, and I've actually seen the line drop from -13.5 when it originally came out and we gave it out a while back.
Another SEC team favored and expected to win. Probably Manziel's last game and would expect a really high scoring game. A couple great coaches and this really should be a fun game. Right now I see A&M winning the game but honestly not by that much, so strongly leaning towards the underdog and taking Duke as a very strong play for Tuesday. Also jumping all over the Over tonight since there should be lots of scoring ahead of us.


DUKE +13

DUKE / TEXAS A&M OVER 74 POINTS

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12/23/2013 05:10 PM
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BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL

MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. NAVY
Monday, Dec. 30, 11:45 am
ESPN

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Middle Tennessee finished the regular season with a flourish, cruising to five straight wins by scoring an average of 42.6 points. That streak earned the Blue Raiders a date with Navy in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl. The Midshipmen crushed rival Army in their annual showdown and enters bowl season with a four-game winning streak thanks to a dominating ground attack. Middle Tennessee doesn’t run it quite as much as Navy but can pile up yards on the ground behind Jordan Parker and Reggie Whatley. Quarterback Logan Kilgore finished the season strong with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions during the season-ending winning streak for the Blue Raiders. No team in college football throws it less than the Midshipmen, who dominate on the ground with a triple-option attack.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE - The Blue Raiders are making a return to bowl play for the first time since falling to Miami (Ohio) in the GoDaddy.com Bowl after the 2010 season and are focused on picking up the school’s third bowl win in history. Middle Tennessee tightened its defense over the last four games, but surrendered 177 yards on the ground in a 48-17 victory over Texas-El Paso in the regular-season finale.

NAVY - The Midshipmen played the final regular-season game of the college season against rival Army and showed off the effectiveness of the triple option by churning out 343 of their 353 yards on the ground in the 34-7 victory. Reynolds’ three rushing touchdowns gave him 29 on the season, breaking the NCAA single-season record of 27 shared by former Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs and Kansas State’s Collin Klein. Navy gave most of its opponents fits and nearly pulled off an upset at Notre Dame on Nov. 2 before falling 38-34.

Been following the Sun Belt conference for years and that included MTS over the years. I see them winning this game by a field goal in a close but enjoyable game.This looks like a moneyline doggie once again. Will update as we get closer to game but see no reason not to jump on MTS and grab the points.


MIDDLE TENNESSEE +7

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12/23/2013 07:22 PM
Spooky, r u still on house since QB was sent home. Thanks


Bama
ROLL TIDE
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12/25/2013 04:33 PM
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FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL

GEORGIA TECH vs. MISSISSIPPI
Monday, Dec. 30, 3:15 pm
ESPN

The Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl is going to feature two teams who have had their fair shares of ups and downs this year, but the most important thing is that they are both bowl bound and are playing for a bowl game win here. Both the Ole Miss Rebels and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets finished up this year at 7-5 overall, but they didn't get their in the same way. It's an SEC vs. ACC match-up, and much of the talks this year in bowls are going to be about the strong SEC, and seeing exactly how the non-top SEC teams do against out of conference opponents here.

Both of these teams averaged 30+ points per game, as Ole Miss put up 30.4 points a game, and Georgia Tech was able to put up 36.6 per game. The two team defenses were pretty even though, as Ole Miss gave up 24.3 points per game, which is solid against a strong SEC, and Georgia Tech gave up even fewer points at just 22.7 points per game. It'll be interesting to see if the two defenses can stand up against some solid offensive play.

Ole Miss had three losses in a row to Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M, which are all incredibly tough games, and they lost their final two games to Missouri, and Mississippi State in overtime. Outside of the Bama' game though, Ole Miss really had a shot at winning each of the other games.

Georgia Tech had a similar spot where they lost to Virginia Tech, Miami, and BYU for three in a row earlier in the year, and lost two of their final three games to round out the season. The final two losses came against Clemson and Georgia, which were two games that were definitely two of the toughest on the schedule.

Ole Miss Passing vs. Georgia Tech Rushing

Two completely different styles of play here to be honest. The Rebels come into this game with the 25th ranked passing offense in terms of yards per game, as they average 285.6 yards per game with quarterback Bo Wallace. In terms of running the ball though, that is absolutely a huge strength of the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech is 5th in the country in rushing at an impressive 311.7 yards per game. The different styles of play should be fun to watch.

Consensus

I expected this line to be right about where it's at, with Ole Miss being a field goal favorite on most sportsbooks. I dont think I will have a closer game in the entire bowl season and if a game could end in a tie I wouldn't be surprised if this was the game. No idea at this point and the game may be one of the few games that I dont have an idea when the game starts either. We shall see. The Rebels passing game may be too much for Georgia Tech and that the Ole Miss defense will be able to slow down Georgia Tech's rushing offense, and it'll lead to a Rebels victory but right now and that is my only fear. I am going to stick with the Underdog and go for a ride with Georgia Tech and buy another point.


GEORGIA TECH +4

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