spooky Posts:4539 Followers:311
On 12/05/2013 11:35 AM in NCAA Football

SPOOKY EXPRESS BOWLING FOR DOLLARS SELECTION AND ANALYSIS THREAD

ITS ALMOST THAT TIME!!!!!!
BOWLING FOR DOLLARS FOR 2013/2014!


SPOOKY EXPRESS AND BOWL SEASON

Many of you know I started posting my bowl game selections almost 15 years ago and that is how it all began at the forums. Never have had a losing bowl season since 1977 and not about to start now. Record speaks for itself.
Have had some unbelievable outstanding seasons and a few average years but always have showed a profit. This is the only time I truly crunch numbers and play more with the numbers than my head.

Will start posting some opinions in the next few weeks but wanted to get started on all the threads since there is so much work involved. I am just going to make 1 thread for the analysis, write ups, thoughts for each of the games that go along with the rankings and another thread for my game time updates, selections and wagers.

These will once again be MY PLAYS and my opinion. I really dont care if you follow or not. Not looking to debate my selections.

The totals (Over/Unders) will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game and they are only an opinion. I will post my power ratings, my dog plays and some money line plays if you care.

We had over 32,000 views last year on this thread and over 65,000 views going back to 2012 so Im hoping we can top that this year.

Happy Holidays and best of luck.
--------------------------------------------------------------



Please stop by and LIKE our facebook page at www.facebook.com/spookyexpress

Please stop by our website and check out more previews and daily selections at www.spookyexpress.com

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 55-40-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 224-184-8
  • All Time Record: 2618-1904-60
spooky Posts:4539 Followers:311
12/05/2013 11:36 AM

I will post the early recap for some of you that have not followed in years past or like their annual reminder.
As the odds change so can the selection. Obviously the Best bets will not change dramatically.

There will be in the coming weeks analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders) which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game. The totals are only Opinions so we focus on the side plays. At the beginning is where I jump on some early lines which stand out and get the best value for the wager. I may completely reverse my thinking as time goes by, but for now I let the numbers do the talking and everyone that has seen or followed Spooky this millennium can corroborate how solid they usually are.

ANYTIME A TEAM IS PICKED TO WIN OUTRIGHT AND ALSO COVER WITH THE POINTS MAKES THEM A PLAY. NO LOOKING BACK, NO THINKING ABOUT IT.

There will also be some live underdogs. So be ready. These teams are picked to win and they are getting points. Money Line Dogs. Get them while they are hot. Don’t be afraid when the pointspread moves. It is done so emotionally. QB gets hurt, RB gets suspended, who cares. The points will be adjusted. These selections are not based on 1 or 2 games but an entire season. Remember since 1977 this has not lost.

Just use some judgement and as we get closer the plays will become clearer and Spooky will let you know.
If you like a Pro game, start making small parlays with them on the best bets. By the time game time comes around you should have tons of action on the later games and that creates tons of profit!!!!

Since many ask about the way I mess with the strengths of each play, this is a synopsis of what I do.
I will usually rank them 1 thru 5 smileys with the 4 and 5 smileys very infrequently. If there is no smiley listed than you can consider that anywhere from an opinion to 1 smiley. When playing on the totals I will almost always consider it an opinion. For the simple reason that I crunch numbers during bowl season and the side has a value outside of what is my opinion. The total is basically my opinion (which is what I do the remaining months of the year). The total is totally subjective. I usually will make the total play anywhere from 1/4 to 1/2 of the listed play. So if I am playing 300 on a game then the total would be anywhere from 75 to 150 if we were to put a numerical dollar value on it.

Please remember this is what I do, I am not getting paid to determine your money management or what you should be doing. Certainly you can play everything equal or you can follow the smileys. This is just my Bowl Express and sharing with everyone what I am dong for the most part.



=====================================================

This is where I get started early on.

Here will be all the team strengths indicating what teams are the strongest plays based solely on the system and based on the current pointspread.


As the odds change so can the selection. There will be more in the coming weeks more analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders) which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game.


These teams listed here are picked to win and they are getting points. Money Line Dogs.

Here are some we are looking at early on.
Colorado State, Cincinnati, Rice and Houston all are dogs that are picked to win outright.

These teams are picked to win outright with a significant advantage that stand out and will possibly be the play of the year. Right now is where I jump on some early lines which stand out and get the best value for the wager. I may completely reverse my thinking as time goes by, but for now I let the numbers do the talking


Bowling Green -6

Cincinnati +3


Marshall PK

Boise State +3

Louisville PK



The absolute BEST BETS of the entire Bowl Season are Bowling Green laying the points and Cincinnati getting the points. These 2 games should be parlayed with anything and everything you like in the bowl season and pound the crap out of em.

Also feel strongly about a few more games and will come back with a few more soon enough.

These are entirely the best bets and regardless of how many smileys I put down these are the plays of the season. Games come up so quickly during bowl season I dont always have time to come back and update everything and focus on the thread as much as my own plays. :)

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 55-40-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 224-184-8
  • All Time Record: 2618-1904-60
finance Posts:8716 Followers:228
12/05/2013 11:38 AM







  • All Time Record: 2024-2016-56
  • Last 7 Days Record: 1-0-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 22-22-2
spooky Posts:4539 Followers:311
12/05/2013 11:39 AM

For those interested in POWER RATINGS.

The lower the number the stronger the ranking. These numbers will change slightly after the Army/Navy game. Please remember all the power ratings are a guide to what I do during bowl season. My picks are still going to be my picks and I may move away from certain plays when the time comes. Again I dont do this for a living, just sharing what I do as I have for the past couple decades.

A huge THANK YOU goes out to Bobalou for all her assistance in crunching the numbers every year. Without her this wouldn't be complete until much closer to all the games.


TEAM / RANK

Florida State 60

Baylor 70

Alabama 125

Bowling Green 133

Louisville 137

Oregon 137

Wisconsin 140

Marshall 153

Oklahoma State 156

Washington 166

Cincinnati 166

Clemson 167

Utah State 188

UCF 189

Missouri 192

LSU 199

Ohio State 201

Michigan State 208

South Carolina 209

Arizona State 210

Stanford 213

North Texas 221

East Carolina 231

Oklahoma 233

BYU 234

Houston 240

Northern Illinois 246

Boise State 252

Iowa260

Kansas State 261

USC 264

Georgia Tech 264

Ole Miss 265

Rice 277

Virginia Tech 278

UCLA 278

Fresno State 282

Ball State 282

Auburn 285

Miami 290

Georgia 300

Michigan 304

Arizona 305

Buffalo 306

Nebraska 312

Colorado State 324

Texas 328

La-Lafayette 334

North Carolina 337

Texas A&M 338

Mississippi State 345

Duke 347

Vanderbilt 349

Tulane 350

Maryland 354

Texas Tech 358

Notre Dame 370

Minnesota 377

Middle Tennessee 381

UNLV 384

San Diego State 386

Syracuse 390

Arkansas State 394

Oregon State 396

Navy 398

Rutgers 410

Boston College 428

Ohio 450

Washington State 453

Pittsburgh 463



Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 55-40-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 224-184-8
  • All Time Record: 2618-1904-60
chargerrodger Posts:1645 Followers:80
12/05/2013 11:43 AM

Thanks Spooky!! This looks like it will be a lot of fun!! Happy Holidays to you too!!

spooky Posts:4539 Followers:311
12/05/2013 11:44 AM

BOWL SELECTIONS

In order of team to win by the most points based on power ratings

(Pointspreads are not involved)

This is used to determine money line plays, contest picks and plays not involving pointspreads

Remember these ratings will be adjusted after the Army/Navy game to a small degree


Team / Power Difference / Team They are Playing

Bowling Green 33.1 Pittsburgh

Florida State 22.5 Auburn

East Carolina 21.9 Ohio

Marshall 20.1 Maryland

Oregon 19.1 Texas

Cincinnati 17.1 North Carolina

North Texas 16.3 UNLV

Louisville 15.3 Miami

Arizona State 14.8 Texas Tech

Boise State 14.4 Oregon State

Colorado State 12.9 Washington State

Arizona 12.3 Boston College

Baylor 11.9 UCF

Ball State 11.2 Arkansas State

Houston 10.9 Vanderbilt

Alabama 10.8 Oklahoma

Buffalo 8.0 San Diego State

Washington 7.8 BYU

Wisconsin 6.9 South Carolina

Rice 6.8 Mississippi State

LSU 6.1 Iowa

Utah State 5.8 Northern Illinois

Kansas State 4.2 Michigan

Notre Dame 4.0 Rutgers

Oklahoma State 3.6 Missouri

Clemson 3.4 Ohio State

USC 1.8 Fresno St.

Middle Tennessee 1.7 Navy

LA-Lafayette 1.6 Tulane

Minnesota 1.3 Syracuse

Georgia 1.2 Nebraska

Texas A&M 0.9 Duke

Michigan State 0.5 Stanford

Georgia Tech 0.1 Ole Miss

Virginia Tech pk UCLA


Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 55-40-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 224-184-8
  • All Time Record: 2618-1904-60
bimmercando Posts:90 Followers:2
12/05/2013 01:36 PM

Looks like we're in for a "KC Masterpiece" ( MG ).

Hit them hard.
Counting on you this bowl-a-rama!

THX+++

youngfella Posts:7 Followers:0
12/09/2013 02:11 PM

For newcomers - been riding the Spooky Express since 2006, following him everywhere he went. This is the real deal!

bigger5kpb Posts:101 Followers:0
12/09/2013 03:50 PM

Bowling for dollars , let's get em again spooky!!!!

spooky Posts:4539 Followers:311
12/09/2013 07:32 PM

So jumping right out of the box, Bobalou already got the power rankings started and we posted them. Again things will change a small bit after the Army/Navy game. What also jumps out are some of the matchups. Usually there are a handful of games that are considered best bets but this year before any logic, capping or consideration is done there are a bunch of games that just jump off the page. So feel free to get started on them if you have unlimited funds since you can always buy back and even have a nice middle quite often as the lines change. As always I will play moneyline when line is less than 3 and will buy the point or two to my benefit where needed. These are NOT the final selections but its gonna take a lot for the Express to move off these.

COLORADO STATE

EAST CAROLINA

BOISE STATE

BOWLING GREEN

UTAH STATE

WASHINGTON

MARSHALL

RUTGERS

CINCINNATI U

LOUISVILLE

MIDDLE TENN ST

RICE

DUKE

NORTH TEXAS

HOUSTON U

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 55-40-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 224-184-8
  • All Time Record: 2618-1904-60