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SPOOKY EXPRESS BOWLING FOR DOLLARS SELECTION AND ANALYSIS THREAD
ITS ALMOST THAT TIME!!!!!!
BOWLING FOR DOLLARS FOR 2013/2014! SPOOKY EXPRESS AND BOWL SEASON
Many of you know I started posting my bowl game selections almost 15 years ago and that is how it all began at the forums. Never have had a losing bowl season since 1977 and not about to start now. Record speaks for itself.
Have had some unbelievable outstanding seasons and a few average years but always have showed a profit. This is the only time I truly crunch numbers and play more with the numbers than my head.
Will start posting some opinions in the next few weeks but wanted to get started on all the threads since there is so much work involved. I am just going to make 1 thread for the analysis, write ups, thoughts for each of the games that go along with the rankings and another thread for my game time updates, selections and wagers.
These will once again be MY PLAYS and my opinion. I really dont care if you follow or not. Not looking to debate my selections.
The totals (Over/Unders) will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game and they are only an opinion. I will post my power ratings, my dog plays and some money line plays if you care.
We had over 32,000 views last year on this thread and over 65,000 views going back to 2012 so Im hoping we can top that this year.
Happy Holidays and best of luck.
I will post the early recap for some of you that have not followed in years past or like their annual reminder.
As the odds change so can the selection. Obviously the Best bets will not change dramatically.
There will be in the coming weeks analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders) which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game. The totals are only Opinions so we focus on the side plays. At the beginning is where I jump on some early lines which stand out and get the best value for the wager. I may completely reverse my thinking as time goes by, but for now I let the numbers do the talking and everyone that has seen or followed Spooky this millennium can corroborate how solid they usually are.
ANYTIME A TEAM IS PICKED TO WIN OUTRIGHT AND ALSO COVER WITH THE POINTS MAKES THEM A PLAY. NO LOOKING BACK, NO THINKING ABOUT IT.
There will also be some live underdogs. So be ready. These teams are picked to win and they are getting points. Money Line Dogs. Get them while they are hot. Don’t be afraid when the pointspread moves. It is done so emotionally. QB gets hurt, RB gets suspended, who cares. The points will be adjusted. These selections are not based on 1 or 2 games but an entire season. Remember since 1977 this has not lost.
Just use some judgement and as we get closer the plays will become clearer and Spooky will let you know.
If you like a Pro game, start making small parlays with them on the best bets. By the time game time comes around you should have tons of action on the later games and that creates tons of profit!!!!
Since many ask about the way I mess with the strengths of each play, this is a synopsis of what I do.
I will usually rank them 1 thru 5 smileys with the 4 and 5 smileys very infrequently. If there is no smiley listed than you can consider that anywhere from an opinion to 1 smiley. When playing on the totals I will almost always consider it an opinion. For the simple reason that I crunch numbers during bowl season and the side has a value outside of what is my opinion. The total is basically my opinion (which is what I do the remaining months of the year). The total is totally subjective. I usually will make the total play anywhere from 1/4 to 1/2 of the listed play. So if I am playing 300 on a game then the total would be anywhere from 75 to 150 if we were to put a numerical dollar value on it.
Please remember this is what I do, I am not getting paid to determine your money management or what you should be doing. Certainly you can play everything equal or you can follow the smileys. This is just my Bowl Express and sharing with everyone what I am dong for the most part.
Here will be all the team strengths indicating what teams are the strongest plays based solely on the system and based on the current pointspread.
As the odds change so can the selection. There will be more in the coming weeks more analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders) which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game.
These teams listed here are picked to win and they are getting points. Money Line Dogs.
Here are some we are looking at early on.
Colorado State, Cincinnati, Rice and Houston all are dogs that are picked to win outright.
These teams are picked to win outright with a significant advantage that stand out and will possibly be the play of the year. Right now is where I jump on some early lines which stand out and get the best value for the wager. I may completely reverse my thinking as time goes by, but for now I let the numbers do the talking
Bowling Green -6
Boise State +3
The absolute BEST BETS of the entire Bowl Season are Bowling Green laying the points and Cincinnati getting the points. These 2 games should be parlayed with anything and everything you like in the bowl season and pound the crap out of em.
Also feel strongly about a few more games and will come back with a few more soon enough.
These are entirely the best bets and regardless of how many smileys I put down these are the plays of the season. Games come up so quickly during bowl season I dont always have time to come back and update everything and focus on the thread as much as my own plays. :)
The lower the number the stronger the ranking. These numbers will change slightly after the Army/Navy game. Please remember all the power ratings are a guide to what I do during bowl season. My picks are still going to be my picks and I may move away from certain plays when the time comes. Again I dont do this for a living, just sharing what I do as I have for the past couple decades.
A huge THANK YOU goes out to Bobalou for all her assistance in crunching the numbers every year. Without her this wouldn't be complete until much closer to all the games.
So jumping right out of the box, Bobalou already got the power rankings started and we posted them. Again things will change a small bit after the Army/Navy game. What also jumps out are some of the matchups. Usually there are a handful of games that are considered best bets but this year before any logic, capping or consideration is done there are a bunch of games that just jump off the page. So feel free to get started on them if you have unlimited funds since you can always buy back and even have a nice middle quite often as the lines change. As always I will play moneyline when line is less than 3 and will buy the point or two to my benefit where needed. These are NOT the final selections but its gonna take a lot for the Express to move off these.