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12/15/2013 11:41 AM
NFL

Sunday, December 15

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Seahawks at Giants: What bettors need to know
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Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+6.5, 41.5)

The Seattle Seahawks take a second stab at wrapping up the NFC West crown when they visit the New York Giants on Sunday. Seattle had a seven-game winning streak snapped by division rival San Francisco last weekend and can also move closer to clinching home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win over the Giants. New York is a disappointing 5-8 and was eliminated from playoff contention when it was routed by San Diego last Sunday.

Giants defensive end Justin Tuck has seven sacks over the past three games and is insisting he and his teammates won’t be wallowing in despair with nothing to play for against the Seahawks. “The last thing you want to be is embarrassed,” Tuck said after Wednesday’s practice. “And this is a team that, if you’re not ready to play, they will embarrass you … and then laugh at you about it.” Seattle will be missing a couple key defensive pieces as linebacker K.J. Wright broke his right foot in the loss to the 49ers and cornerback Brandon Browner (groin) will sit out for the fourth consecutive game.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Seattle opened as a 7-point road fave and is now -6.5. The total opened 41.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 14 mph.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (11-2): Seattle was hoping receiver Percy Harvin (hip) might play for the second time this season but it is looking unlikely. “He just hasn’t quite gotten over the hump,” coach Pete Carroll said on Wednesday. “He has a lot of new movement in that hip that he hasn’t had before and he’s trying to become accustomed to that.” Quarterback Russell Wilson (23 touchdowns, seven interceptions) is excelling and standout running back Marshawn Lynch ranks fifth in the NFL with 1,042 yards. Star cornerback Richard Sherman (four interceptions) hasn’t picked off a pass since Oct. 28 against St. Louis.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (5-8): Quarterback Eli Manning (3,254 yards, 16 touchdowns) shares the NFL interception lead of 20 with rookie Geno Smith of the Jets and has gone eight consecutive games without reaching 300 yards. He’s also painfully aware that his struggles are a big part of the reason why New York will miss out on the postseason for the second straight campaign. “I thought we were prepared to have a big year and do some good things,” Manning said. “It was just tough. We had some opportunities to win some games that we didn’t – that were very close and definitely within reach in the fourth quarter and we didn’t take advantage of those opportunities.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Seahawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC.
* Over is 6-2 in Giants last eight home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Seattle is tied for second with 28 takeaways, while New York has committed an NFL-high 34 turnovers.

2. Giants WR Victor Cruz had eight receptions for 161 yards and a touchdown when the teams met in 2011 – a game the Seahawks won 36-25.

3. The Seahawks rank first in total defense (287.1) and second in scoring defense (15.8).
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12/15/2013 11:42 AM
NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+6.5, 41.5)
There will be a 25 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph. Temperatures will be in the high-30s.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 44)
There is a 47 percent chance of snow in the forecast with temperatures in the mid-20s. Wind will blow toward the NE endzone at 16 mph.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, 43)
There is an 89 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the field at 11 mph.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 25 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5, 41)
Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 52 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (41.5, 4.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-11, 40.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 7 mph.

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with partly cloudy skies.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-20s with a 22 percent chance of snow. Wind will whip across the field at 13 mph.
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12/15/2013 11:43 AM
Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

It's hard to believe, but we are in Week 15 of the NFL season. A couple of quarterback changes have nabbed headlines this week and have predictably had a major impact on lines.

We talk to Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, about the action coming in on some of Sunday's matchups and where the lines could close come kickoff:

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons - Open: -4.5, Move: -7

Things couldn't have gone much worse for these two NFC teams. The Washington Redskins have turned to backup QB Kirk Cousins and sharp bettors backed the home fave as soon as lines were opened.

"Less than an hour after we opened our NFL lines, we got sharp bet on Atlanta so moved to -5.5," Perry tells Covers. "Monday afternoon, we got another wiseguy play on the Falcons so moved to -6. On Tuesday, another sharp play on Atlanta -6, caused us to move to current number of 7. Can see why the sharpies like Atlanta, as the Redskins are an absolute mess right now and the Mike Shanahan relationship with RGIII is something out of a bad soap opera."


Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns - Open: -2, Move: +1

The Bears are another team with some changes under center in Week 15. Despite playing incredibly well, Josh McCown will be holding the clipboard as Jay Cutler returns to run Marc Trestman's offense.

"On Wednesday, we got sharp play on Chicago +2 so moved to Browns -1," Perry says. "Then on Thursday, when it was announced that Cutler would start, the line moved two points to Bears -1. Seventy-nine percent of cash is backing Chicago."


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins - Open: +3, Move: +1

While the Patriots can clinch the AFC East crown with a victory in Miami, there still remains questions about just how good they actually are. Add to that the fact that TE Rob Gronkowski is out for the rest of the season and sharps have come in to back the home Dolphins.

"They (Patriots) have won a couple of close, controversial games, and now are without Gronk," Perry said. "On Wednesday afternoon, we got sharp play on the Fins +3, so moved to Pats -2. Thursday another sharp play game on Miami, so moved to current number of NE -1. Sixty percent of cash is on the Patriots."
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12/15/2013 11:44 AM
NFL betting: NFC West is the ATS king

The NFL's three best teams ATS this season all hail from what used to be considered the doormat division of the NFL, the NFC West.

The Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals are all sporting 9-4 records ATS this season. That is quite a turnaround considering just a few years ago the Seahawks won the division with a 7-9 record.

These three teams are all favored Sunday, with the Seahawks as 7-point faves at the New York Giants, the 49ers as 5-point faves at Tampa Bay and the Cards as 2.5-point faves at Tennessee.
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12/15/2013 11:44 AM
Essential betting tidbits for Week 15 of NFL football

- Seattle's ballhawking defense will be licking its chops Sunday. The Seahawks are tied for second in the league with 28 takeaways, while their opponent - the New York Giants - lead the league with 34 turnovers.

- The Chicago Bears have troubles traveling to Cleveland. They've lost their last four visits at the Browns.

- In his last four games, Browns WR Josh Gordon has registered a mind-boggling 774 yards receiving.

- The Indianapolis Colts will look to keep the tradition of beating the Houston Texans at home. The Colts have are 11-0 all time against the Texans.

- Wade Phillips tipped Case Keenum to start versus Indy despite being pulled against the Jags. Keenum threw for a career-high 350 yards and three TDs versus the Colts in the previous meeting.

- The Jacksonville Jaguars have won three-straight games and have stopped turning the ball over. The Jags were minus-7 in the turnover department during their 0-8 start but are plus-five over the last five games.

- Courtesy of @ATSstats - When the Buffalo Bills played as a road fave in the month of December, they are 8-2 SU since 1996. Buffalo is -2.5 at Jacksonville Sunday.

- The Patriots have won seven straight against the Dolphins, but just seven of their last 13 meetings in South Beach under Belichick's watch.

- Dolphins RB Lamar Miller has struggled all season long, but had one of his best games in the first meeting with New England. jiller rushed for 89 yards on 18 carries in the 27-17 loss.

- Sunday's matchup between the Eagles and Vikings features two of the most talented backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy. Peterson (who is questionable) rushed for only 13 yards before exiting the game versus the Ravens last week, while McCoy rumbled in the snow for 217 in the 34-20 win over the Lions.

- Kirk Cousins will start at QB for the Redskins. The second-year pro is 12-of-25 for 107 yards and two picks in two appearances this season.

- Falcons QB Matt Ryan should look to TE Tony Gonzalez Sunday. Gonzalez had 13 catches for 123 yards and TD in last years meeting with the Redskins.

- The 49ers have cashed in for bettors while on the road this season. The Niners are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games (5-1 ATS on the road this season). San Fran is a 5-point road fave at Tampa Bay Sunday.

- Bucs linebacker Lavonte David is the only player in the league with at least 100 tackles, five interceptions and five sacks.

- The Oakland Raiders have the best rushing attack in the AFC with 134.4 yards per game.

- The Raiders host the Chiefs Sunday, where the Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. Sunday's total is currently 41.5.

- Carolina's defense is tough. But at home is on another level. The Panthers have allowed just five touchdowns in six home games this season.

- Such stats do not bode well for the poor New York Jets and QB Geno Smith. Smith has thrown for a combined 230 yards and five interceptions in his last two road games.

- Since Oct 1., Packers RB Eddie Lacy ranks third in the NFL with 836 rushing yards.

- The Cowboys are 11-4 in the last 15 matchups with the Green Bay Packers and are 6.5-point faves at home Sunday.

- New Orleans averages just 18.8 points on the road compared to 32.9 at home. Saints are 6.5-point faves at St. Louis Sunday.

- The Rams offense has been feeble of late, scoring just 23 points during a two-game losing skid.

- The Arizona Cardinals are tied for the best ATS record in the NFL at 9-4. They are tied with fellow NFC West teams Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

- The Titans are looking to avoid their first five-game home losing streak since 1996, when the franchise was still based in Houston.

- Bengals QB Andy Dalton has a QB rating of just 67.8 in five games versus the Steelers.

- The Steelers are 3-1 ATS against AFC North teams this season. They are 1.5-point home dogs against Cincy Sunday night.
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12/15/2013 11:46 AM
Week 15 Tips

December 14, 2013


49ers (-5, 41) at Buccaneers - 1:00 PM EST

San Francisco: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS
Tampa Bay: 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS

Last week's results: The 49ers edged the Seahawks, 19-17 to win their third consecutive game and help themselves greatly in the NFC Wild Card race. The Buccaneers have rebounded since an 0-8 start by winning their fourth game in the last five tries as Tampa Bay blew out Buffalo, 27-6 as three-point favorites.

Previous meeting results: San Francisco makes its first trip to Tampa Bay since 2004, as the 49ers routed the Bucs, 48-3 at Candlestick Park in 2011 as 2 ½-point favorites. Frank Gore rushed for 125 yards and a touchdown in the win, while San Francisco racked up 418 yards of offense.

Betting notes: Tampa Bay owns a 5-1 ATS record the last six games, but the Bucs are just 2-2 ATS when receiving points at home. The Niners didn't take home the money in the victory over Seattle, as San Francisco fell to 8-2 ATS the past 10 contests. San Francisco's defense continues to step up, resulting in five consecutive 'unders.'

Seahawks (-7, 41 ½) at Giants - 1:00 PM EST

Seattle: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS
New York: 5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS

Last week's results: Seattle's seven-game winning streak came to an end against rival San Francisco, but the Seahawks cashed as 2 ½-point underdogs in a 19-17 setback. The Giants return home after getting blasted at San Diego, 37-14, pretty much ending any kind of remote hopes for a playoff berth.

Previous meeting results: The Seahawks upended the Giants as 10-point road underdogs in 2011 with a 36-25 victory. New York ended up winning the Super Bowl that season, but allowed 14 unanswered points in the final 2:30 minutes, including an interception return of an Eli Manning pass for a touchdown.

Betting notes: The Giants have won three of their last four games at home, while being listed as an underdog at Met Life Stadium for the third time this season (losing to the Eagles and Broncos). The Seahawks have cashed in four of the past six opportunities as a road favorite, while hitting the 'under' in each of the last three games away from CenturyLink Field.

Patriots (-1, 45 ½) at Dolphins - 1:00 PM EST

New England: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS
Miami: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS

Last week's results: The Patriots rallied from a 12-point deficit in the final two minutes of a 27-26 triumph over the Browns. New England failed to cash as 9 ½-point home favorites, as Tom Brady tossed a pair of touchdowns down the stretch to give the Patriots their 11th straight season of 10 or more wins. The Dolphins won consecutive road games for the second time this season after holding off the Steelers, 34-28 to cash outright as three-point 'dogs.

Previous meeting results: In Week 8, the Dolphins squandered 17-3 lead in a 27-17 defeat at Gillette Stadium as 6 ½-point underdogs. New England outscored Miami, 24-0 in the second half, in spite of Brady throwing for just 116 yards in the victory. The Patriots have won seven straight meetings with the Dolphins, as Miami's last victory in the series came in December 2009.

Betting notes: Miami is rolling from an ATS standpoint, cashing four straight games, including three in a row as a home underdog. In spite of winning three of their past four contests, the Patriots are just 1-3 ATS in this span, while posting an 0-4 ATS mark in the last four games away from Gillette Stadium.

Cardinals (-2 ½, 42) at Titans - 4:25 PM EST

Arizona: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS
Tennessee: 5-8 SU, 6-6-1 ATS

Last week's results: Arizona stayed hot with its fourth win in five tries after blowing out St. Louis, 30-10 as 4 ½-point home favorites. The Cardinals have won four consecutive home contests, while scoring at least 27 points in five of the last six trips to the field. The Titans continued their late-season stumble after getting run out by the Broncos, 51-28. Tennessee actually led by 11 points in the second quarter, but was outscored, 41-7 the rest of the way as the Titans couldn't cover as 13-point underdogs.

Previous meeting results: In a rematch of the 2005 Rose Bowl, Vince Young rallied his team once again past Matt Leinart's in the final seconds as the Titans edged the Cardinals, 20-17 in November 2009. Arizona managed a cover as 3 ½-point road underdogs, while Chris Johnson ran all over the Cardinals' defense for 154 yards, including an 85-yard touchdown scamper.

Betting notes: The Cardinals are a perfect 3-0 against AFC South opponents this season, including routs of the Colts and Jaguars. Arizona has cashed road tickets in three of the last four opportunities, while owning a 4-1 ATS record in the favorite role. Tennessee has lost four of the last five games, as the Titans are seeking their first home victory since Week 4 against the Jets.

Packers at Cowboys (-6 ½, 49) - 4:25 PM EST

Green Bay: 6-6-1 SU, 5-8 ATS
Dallas: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS

Last week's results: The defense let Dallas down again in a 45-28 setback at Chicago on Monday night as short underdogs. The Cowboys allowed 490 yards of offense from the Bears, while getting outgained for the fifth time in the last six games. The Packers ended a five-game winless streak by rallying past the Falcons, 22-21. Green Bay failed to cover as 3 ½-point home favorites, while dropping to 0-6 ATS since Aaron Rodgers suffered a collarbone injury.

Previous meeting results: In Wade Phillips' final game as head coach of the Cowboys before getting fired, Green Bay whipped Dallas, 45-7 at Lambeau Field in 2009. The Packers scored 28 second quarter points to put the game out of reach, while putting up a pair of defensive touchdowns. Green Bay has won three of the past four home matchups with Dallas since 2004.

Betting notes: The Cowboys have finished 'over' the total in four straight games, while posting a dreadful 1-4 ATS record in the last five contests. Each of Green Bay's last two road games has been decided by double-digits with losses to the Lions and Giants. The Packers have drilled the 'under' in seven of the past 10 games, while scoring 22 points or less in five of the last six contests.
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12/15/2013 11:47 AM
Total Talk - Week 15

December 14, 2013


Week 14 Recap

Last week’s NFL action had some of the wildest finishes I’ve ever seen and if you bet totals, you saw some really bad losses. Next week, VegasInsider.com will be publishing its annual “Bad Beat” piece and we’ll touch on a couple of these. Those of you who bet the ‘under’ in the Minnesota-Baltimore and New England-Cleveland matchups, we extend our apologies. To those of you who won, nice job!

Bettors saw 90 touchdowns scored on Sunday alone in Week 14, which helped the ‘over’ go 11-5. On the season, the ‘over’ holds a 111-93-2 edge.

Non-Conference Overs

After a 3-1 week, this trend is up to 45-14 (76%) on the season. We have four more matchups (AFC vs. NFC) on tap in Week 15, which includes the Monday battle.

Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Cleveland
New York Jets at Carolina
Baltimore at Detroit

Systems & Trends

We hope you all took advantage of the last week’s “Total System Play” on the Tennessee-Denver matchup. I’ll be sure to keep you informed if it presents itself in the playoffs. As I mentioned last week, I found this system in a message board and it’s been profitable. Another way I find out information is through emails from VegasInsider.com users. Last week, I received a great angle from a VI user who prefers the moniker Agent-86.

According to his analysis that I’ve verified, any team that has played at home on Thursday this season has watched the ‘over’ go 12-2-1 in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Let’s simplify this for you with last week's examples. On Thanksgiving, the Lions, Cowboys and Ravens all hosted games in Week 13 which means the above trend would call for ‘over’ plays in Week 14. Sure enough, Detroit, Dallas and Baltimore all saw their games go ‘over’ last weekend.

Check out our Thursday Night results page and you'll be able to see which teams played in the mid-week matchup this season.

For Week 15, you would look at the ‘over’ in the Jacksonville-Buffalo matchup since the Jaguars played at home on Thursday in Week 14.

Next week, the situation would call for an ‘over’ in the Denver-Houston game since the Broncos played at home this past Thursday.

As I’ve written before in my TT installments, I do believe all trends usually balance out and it should part of your handicapping not the "Be-all and End-all" of your selections. Even if the ‘under’ cashes the next two weeks, you’re still looking at a season total trend that has produced profits of 75 percent.

If anybody else has anything to share, shoot me an email.

Line Moves

The Line Moves went 4-2 last week, pushing the season numbers to 39-29-1 (67%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

Buffalo at Jacksonville: Line opened 44 and dropped to 42
Green Bay at Dallas: Line opened 47 and jumped to 49
Baltimore at Detroit: Line opened 46 ½ and jumped to 48

Divisional Angles

New England at Miami: The Patriots defeated the Dolphins 27-17 at home on Oct. 27. Including this results, the ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series.

Houston at Indianapolis: The Colts earned a 27-24 road victory over the Texans on Nov. 1 and the combined 51 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42. Prior to this game, the ‘under’ had cashed in the last five encounters between the pair.

Kansas City at Oakland: When these teams meet, low-scoring affairs usually occur. The ‘under’ is on an 8-1-1 run in the last 10 encounters, which includes the Chiefs 24-7 home win over the Raiders on Oct. 13.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Thursday’s primetime schedule concluded this past week as the Chargers defeated the Broncos 27-17. The ‘under’ hit (57) in this contest but the ‘over’ connected at a 67 percent (10-5) clip in the mid-week contest this season. On SNF, the ‘over’ owns an 8-6 mark but the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run the last four weeks. MNF saw a high-scoring affair (45-28) last week between the Bears and Cowboys. Overall, the ‘over’ owns a 25-19 (57%) record in primetime games.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Bengals and Steelers have seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight and six of the last seven meetings. Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh 20-10 at home in a MNF battle in Week 2 and the total closed at 40. For this week’s rematch, the number is hovering between 41 and 42 points. The Bengals have exploded for 83 points in their last two home games but just 34 in their previous two road contests. Pittsburgh has been involved in its fair share of shootouts lately, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its last four.

Baltimore at Detroit: Detroit’s offense is averaging 31.7 PPG at Ford Field this season, which has helped ‘over’ go 5-1 and that record could easily be 6-0. Baltimore has been a clear-cut ‘under’ (5-2) at home but the ‘over’ is 3-2-1 on the road due to a defense that’s allowed 26.8 PPG in six games. The total has already been steamed from 46 ½ to 48 points and it will probably get higher by kickoff. If you’re looking for an ‘under’ angle in this spot, you might see some conservative play-calling since both teams need a win to help their playoff pushes. The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between this pair but they haven’t met since 2009.

Fearless Predictions

The bankroll is up to $260 after a 3-1 week, with the teaser failing to connect. Three weeks of regular season action left and looking to finish strong. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Miami 45
Best Under: Chicago-Cleveland 43
Best Team Total: Under Cincinnati 20 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 36 New England-Miami
Over 38 ½ New Orleans-St. Louis
Under 50 ½ Cincinnati-Pittsburgh
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12/15/2013 12:25 PM
Sunday, December 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +6 500
Atlanta - Over 50 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +4 500 *****
Tampa Bay - Under 41 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Seattle -9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
N.Y. Giants - Over 42 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +1 500 *****
Cleveland - Over 44.5 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Houston +5.5 500
Indianapolis - Under 47 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +3.5 500
Jacksonville - Under 43 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England +2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Miami - Over 46.5 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -6 500 *****
Minnesota - Under 53 500

--------------------------------------------------------

AFTERNOON POD'S


Kansas City - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +6 500 *****
Oakland - Under 43.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:05 PM ET N.Y. Jets +10 500 *****
Carolina - Over 41 500

Arizona - 4:25 PM ET Tennessee +2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Tennessee - Over 43 500 *****

New Orleans - 4:25 PM ET St. Louis +6 500
St. Louis - Over 47.5 500 *****

Green Bay - 4:25 PM ET Green Bay +5 500
Dallas - Over 50 500
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12/15/2013 06:27 PM
Sunday Night Pod:


Cincinnati - 8:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +2 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Pittsburgh - Over 43 500 TRIPLE PLAY
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12/16/2013 04:03 PM
MNF - Ravens at Lions

December 15, 2013


Both the Lions and Ravens are desperate squads that need wins down the stretch to make the playoffs. These two clubs hook up at Ford Field to close out Week 15 of the regular season, as Baltimore finishes the campaign against three winning squads, including matchups with New England and Cincinnati the next two weeks. However, the Ravens look for their second consecutive interconference victory after an amazing finish last week.

Baltimore outlasted Minnesota last Sunday in a blizzard, 29-26 to close out a perfect 3-0 homestand. The Ravens failed to cash as six-point favorites, as the two teams combined for 42 points in the final quarter after Baltimore led just 7-6 after three quarters. In fact, the Ravens and Vikings exchanged five touchdowns in the last two minutes of regulation, as Joe Flacco's nine-yard touchdown pass to Marlon Brown with four seconds left proved to be the difference. The total closed at 41 ½, as 'under' bettors suffered probably their worst loss of the season with the explosive fourth quarter.

The Lions also played in a snowstorm last week, but dropped a 34-20 decision at Philadelphia as 2 ½-point underdogs. Detroit grabbed an 8-0 advantage at halftime, while taking a 14-0 edge following a punt return for a touchdown in the third quarter. However, the Eagles took over from there by outscoring the Lions, 34-6, which included a pair of long touchdown runs by LeSean McCoy. The former University of Pittsburgh standout rushed for a career-best 217 yards, while the Eagles' defense held Lions' quarterback Matthew Stafford to just 10 completions.

The Ravens have struggled away from M&T Bank Stadium this season, posting a 1-5 record with a trip to Cincinnati in Week 17. John Harbaugh's club owns a 2-2 ATS mark in the road underdog role, while scoring 20 points or less in each of their last three away contests (all losses). Baltimore has lost three times on the highway by three points or less, including walk-off defeats at Pittsburgh and Chicago.

Detroit has compiled a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS record at Ford Field, while going 'over' the total five times. In the only other home game against an AFC foe, the Lions fell to the Bengals in Week 7 at the gun in a 27-24 defeat as 2 ½-point favorites. Since Jim Schwartz arrived as the head coach in 2009, the Lions are 3-6 SU and 5-3-1 ATS at home against AFC competition, while dropping five of their past seven interconference games overall.

The Lions and Ravens last met on December 13, 2009 at M&T Bank Stadium as Baltimore crushed Detroit, 48-3. The Ravens easily cashed as 14-point 'chalk,' as Baltimore rushed for five touchdowns, including a pair from Willis McGahee. That Detroit squad finished 2-14 in 2009, while Daunte Culpepper started that game and threw two interceptions in the blowout loss.

The favorites have dominated on Monday night recently, winning and covering each of the last four weeks. The past three Monday contests have been decided by double-digits, while last week's shootout between the Bears and Cowboys snapped a three-game 'under' stretch on Mondays. The Lions are playing under the Monday night lights for just the third time since 2008, while the last home Monday contest for Detroit resulted in a 24-13 triumph over Chicago in 2011.

Following Miami's home victory over New England on Sunday, the Dolphins now hold a one-half game edge over the Ravens for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. The Ravens own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Miami, while the Chargers are hanging around at 7-7 after their upset of Denver on Thursday. However, Baltimore has the upper-hand over San Diego from a conference record standpoint, as the Ravens are 6-4 inside the AFC while the Chargers are just 4-6.

The only chance for the Lions to make the playoffs is to win the NFC North, as Detroit heads into Monday trailing Chicago by one-half game after the Bears held off the Browns on the road. If the Lions and Bears finish the season tied, Detroit will grab the division title since it swept Chicago.

The Lions are listed as 6 ½-point home favorites on Monday, while the total is set at 50. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Ford Field and can be seen nationally on ESPN.
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