cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/11/2013 06:23 PM

How to handicap college football bowl season like a pro

Handicapping a bowl game is, in many ways, the same as any other college football game. The team that scores the most points still wins, coaching and matchups matter, controlling the tempo can lead to wins, and so on.

In a few key ways, though, betting bowl games is a whole different animal. Here are three big ways the postseason games present unique challenges bettors have to compensate for:

Coaching changes

In a perfect world, no coaching changes would be made until the end of bowl season. That’s obviously not the case, though.

Handicappers need to be particularly aware of teams that have lost their head coaches. Few teams will fire their coach before a bowl game, but strong coaches frequently move on to their next job before their current team plays in a bowl.

Most often those coaches don’t coach their old team in the bowl because they need to get started on recruiting for their new team. You need to be aware of who the interim coach is, whether a permanent replacement has been named yet, and what impact that is has on the players and their preparation.

It’s not just head coaches that are a factor, either. Rutgers, for example, doesn’t play in the Pinstripe Bowl against Notre Dame until December 28, but the dust had barely settled on the regular season before they fired three assistants. That will have a clear impact on their bowl preparation.

A hot assistant, that is sure to be in demand at other programs, will face all sorts of distractions heading into his bowl game. Michigan State defensive coordinator is charged with getting his nation-leading unit ready for Stanford and the Rose Bowl, but he’s also heavily in demand as a head coach. Will he be at his best, or will he be focusing at least somewhat on what comes next?


Players coming and going

In the month between the regular season and a bowl game, a whole lot can happen to players. Grades come out at most schools, so the prospect of academic-related suspensions is high and can have a big impact on bowl games. It’s crucial to understand who is available and which players may miss a quarter or the whole game.

The extra month to heal can make missing players available again. Nebraska, for example, could go into their Gator Bowl date with Georgia with senior QB Taylor Martinez back at the helm after his long injury absence. The roster that appeared in the final regular season game isn’t necessarily the one we will see here.

Even if players are at the game, their heads may not be. If it has become very likely that a player will leave school early after the bowl to go pro, then they quite possibly can be distracted by what comes next and won’t perform at their best in the bowl.


Location, location, location

While every game is theoretically on a neutral field, bettors need to consider which locations give one team a clear edge.

Maryland will have an edge at the Military Bowl in Annapolis, Maryland. Cincinnati fans will be outnumbered by Tar Heels at the Belk Bowl in Charlotte. Longhorns fans have far fewer travel headaches to get to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl than Oregon fans do. North Texas, which plays in a suburb of Dallas, will have much more fan support in the Heart of Dallas Bowl than UNLV will.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that the virtual home team will win. Handicapping is never that easy. In a tight call, though, location coul

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/11/2013 06:24 PM

Inside the Stats

December 11, 2013


Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Marc Lawrence's pro football and college football selections on VegasInisder.com this season!

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Coaching Down the Stretch

The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes horse race. It’s where all big races are won and lost.

It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. More time often than not, though, the ride the horse gets by his jockey is what puts the team in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.

The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans designed for success or failure… whichever the case may be.

From a profit and loss standpoint, listed below are the BEST and WORST current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis) heading into the 2013 season.

All results are ATS (Against The Spread)

BEST

Home: Ron Rivera (Carolina) 4-1

Away: Leslie Frazier (Minnesota) 5-1

Favorite: John Fox (Denver) 16-9-1

Underdog: Mike McCarthy (Green Bay) 7-0

WORST

Home: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 2-4

Away: Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco) 1-4

Favorite: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 1-5

Underdog: Andy Reid (Kansas City) 2-4

Pennzoil Play

Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 29-33 ATS overall this season, including 21-23 in CFB and 8-10 in the NFL.

This week’s only play would be against the Indianapolis Colts in the NFL.

Passing Fancy

Here is a list of the league’s Top 10 best passing offenses and worst passing defenses. Play accordingly.

Best Pass Offenses
Denver 341.2 yards per game
New Orleans 302.8
Detroit 296.5
San Diego 288.7
Chicago 276.8
Atlanta 267.8
Pittsburgh 266.8
New England 265.9
Green Bay 265.5
Cleveland (surprise) 260.4

Worst Pass Defenses
Philadelphia 285.3
Minnesota 281.9
Denver 274.3
Washington 256.7
Jacksonville 256.5
Detroit 255.8
NY Jets 254.9
Oakland 250.2
St. Louis 248.9
Green Bay 246.8

Red Rover, Red Rover

Despite the Sunday snowstorm in the NFL last week, they did it again.

We’re talking about the wildly successful ‘OVER’ plays on the pro football card with 11 of the 16 games going 'over' the number.

The average games went ‘OVER’ by +8.9 points. It was easily the highest scoring week of the season as there were 85 touchdowns on Sunday (an average 6.1 TD’s per games).

Last week’s four non-conference game produced a 3-1 winning tally for ‘OVER’ players, moving the season-to-date record to a mind-blowing 44-14 ‘OVER’ in these games, including 23-4 ‘OVER’ the last seven weeks.

This week’s non-conference situations are:
Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Cleveland
New York Jets at Carolina
Baltimore at Detroit

College Football Bowl Stat of The Week

Texas Tech was 0-5 both SU and ATS against fellow bowl teams this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/12/2013 05:06 PM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Army vs. Navy
The Black Knights face a Navy team that is coming off a 58-52 OT win over San Jose State and is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Navy is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Midshipmen favored by 21 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Navy (-12 1/2).

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 14

Game 303-304: Army vs. Navy (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Army 65.288; Navy 86.864
Dunkel Line: Navy by 21 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Navy by 12 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Navy (-12 1/2); Under




NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, December 14

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARMY (3 - 8) vs. NAVY (7 - 4) - 12/14/2013, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ARMY is 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 10-31 ATS (-24.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 2-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAF
Short Sheet

Saturday, December 14

Army at Navy, 3:00 ET
Army: 12-31 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Navy: 13-4 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog




NCAAF

Saturday, December 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:00 PM
ARMY vs. NAVY
Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
Army is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Navy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy's last 6 games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/12/2013 05:11 PM

Bowl Trends - Part I

December 12, 2013


Bowls scheduled between Saturday, Dec. 21 and Saturday, Dec. 28

Saturday, December 21

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


COLORADO STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (New Mexico Bowl)...CSU 9-4 vs. line in 2013 and 12-4 last 16 on board since late 2012. Also 5-2 last 7 as dog for Jim McElwain. WSU 9-3 vs. line TY and 10-3 last 13 on board, though Mike Leach just 1-4 as chalk since last season. MW teams only 3-7 vs. line in bowls since 2011, but Pac-12 just 6-8 same span. Slight to CSU, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN CAL vs. FRESNO STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)...When the smoke finally cleared, SC just 6-7 vs. line in 2013, and now 9-17 since 2012 vs. number. Trojans 2-4 vs. line away from Coliseum this season and 2-11 in role since 2012. FSU only 4-7-1 vs. line in 2013 but Bulldogs were 11-2 vs. line in 2012 for DeRuyter, including a humbling bowl loss in Hawaii. SC also humbled in its bowl last season. FSU no covers last 4 in bowls. Fresno State, based on team trends.


BUFFALO vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)...Aztecs no wins or covers last two years in bowls, Buffalo first bowl since 2008. Rocky Long 5-2-1 last 8 on board in 2013, but Buffalo 7-2 last 9 vs. line in 2013. Aztecs 1-6 vs. spread last 7 vs. non-conference foes. Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.


LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE at TULANE (New Orleans Bowl)...Third straight visit to this bowl for ULL, which has won and covered in its last two visits. Tulane gets to play on its home field and is bowling for the first time since 2002. Ragin’ Cajuns no covers their last five in 2013 and failed to cover all three vs. FBS non-Sun Belt foes this season. Meanwhile, Wave covered 7 of last 8 this season and was 5-1 vs. spread on its home field and has covered 9 of last 10 at Superdome. Wave moves to new stadium next season. Tulane, based on recent trends.


Monday, December 23

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


OHIO vs. EAST CAROLINA (Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl)...Frank Solich 2-3 vs. line in bowls with Ohio, with wins and covers the past two seasons. ECU 0-2 SU and vs. line in two bowls for Ruffin McNeill. Ohio, however, lost 3 of last 4 SU and 4 of last 5 vs. line in 2013. Pirates 1-4 vs. line last 5 on road this season but did cover 3 of last 4. Solich only 1-3 as dog TY and 2-5 last 7 in role. Slight to Ohio, based on team trends.


Tuesday, December 24


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


OREGON STATE vs. BOISE STATE (Hawaii Bowl)...Mike Riley has lost and failed to cover last two bowls with Beavs but is still 5-3 SU and vs. spread in bowls at OSU. Boise has won last four bowls SU and is 4-1 vs. line last five bowls. Broncos 1-2 in dog role this season after covering four straight getting points from 2008-12. Broncs only 3-5 vs. line last 8 away from home, however. OSU covered 5 of 6 away from Corvallis this season. Slight to Oregon State, based on team trends.


Thursday, December 26

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


PITT vs. BOWLING GREEN (Little Caesar’s Bowl)...Panthers lose and fail to cover in bowls tthe last two years, also 1-6-1 vs. line last 8 in 2013. BGSU 10-3 vs. line in 2013, 17-5 last 22 on board, 13-3 last 16 as chalk, 6-1 vs. line away from home TY. Bowling Green, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Poinsettia Bowl)...NIU 2-4 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2006. But Huskies were 6-2 vs. spread away from home this season and 10-4 last 14 vs. line away from DeKalb but only 4-5 vs. line against non-MAC foes since LY. MAC teams 7-19 vs. line last 5 years in bowls. Utags 8-5 vs. line TY after 11-2 mark for Gary Andersen LY but only 1-3 as dog in 2013 after covering nine straight in role entering this season. Slight to NIU, based on team trends.


Friday, December 27


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


MARSHALL vs. MARYLAND (Military Bowl)... Herd 1-8-1 vs. line as favorite away from home since Doc Holliday arrived in 2010. Marshall only 2-5 vs. line away from Huntington this season. Terps 4-2 vs. spread away from College Park in 2013, have also covered last 5 and 6 of last 7 vs. non-ACC foes. Terps 4-1 last five as dog since late LY. Maryland, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE vs. MINNESOTA (Texas Bowl)...Gophers return to Texas Bowl after LY’s cover vs. Texas Tech. Big Ten teams have recorded winning spread marks in bowls three of past four season. Cuse 7-4-1 vs. line TY and 11-4-1 last 16 on board since late 2012, though just 3-4-1 as dog TY. Gophers 9-3 vs. spread in 2013 (covering last six), and these teams did meet early last season in Minneapolis when Gophers won and covered by 17-10 score. Gophers 7-2 vs. line outside of Big Ten since 2012. Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON vs. BYU (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)...BYU 2-1 as dog TY but is 11-1 last 12 as dog since midway in the 2012 season. Bronco Mendenhall has won and covered last four bowls (two of those as a dog) and is 6-2 vs. line in bowls since arriving at BYU in 2005. Huskies only 2-3 vs. line away from home this season and were just 2-5 vs. points last seven in 2012. Pac-12 has not had a winning spread bowl record the past four seasons. BYU, based on team trends.


Saturday, December 28


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


RUTGERS vs. NOTRE DAME (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...’Gers faded late in 2013, covering just 1 of last 6 en route to 4-8 spread mark, now 4-11 last 15 on board since late 2012. But Scarlet Knights were 2-1 as dog TY and are 10-5 in that role since 2011 (3-1 last 4 as DD dog). ‘Gers also 5-2 vs. line last seven bowls. Irish only 5-7 vs. line in 2013 and 2-5 as chalk, also no covers last two years in bowls. Also just 4-8 last 12 as DD chalk. 14-plus bowl dogs only 1-2 LY and 1-6 since 2010, however, reversing earlier strong showings vs. number. Rutgers, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Belk Bowl)...Heels covered 6 of last 7 this season. Fedora 5-2 as chalk in 2013. Cincy just 3-3 vs. spread away from home in 2013. Tuberville 5-3 vs. line in bowls. Bearcats 2-4 vs. spread last six bowls, but Cincy is 5-1 as dog since LY (2-1 in 2013). Bearcats won and covered this bowl in miraculous fashion vs. Duke last December. Slight to North Carolina, based on recent trends.


MIAMI-FLA. vs. LOUISVILLE (Russell Athletic Bowl)...Canes did not exactly close with a rush, dropping 6 of last 7 vs. number this season. Which was a turnaround for Al Golden, whose teams had offered good spread value prior (18-6-1 previous 25). Golden teams still 9-4-1 as dog at Miami and 18-8-1 in role since 2008 at Temple & with Canes. L’ville needed OT to get cover in last game of reg.-season slate vs. Cincy, had dropped 6 of 7 vs. number prior. Charlie Strong only 11-18 as chalk since 2011 campaign. Miami, based on extended Al Golden/Charlie Strong trends.


MICHIGAN vs. KANSAS STATE (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)...Bill Snyder no covers in bowls the past three seasons, in fact K-State has now failed to cover its last seven bowl games dating to 2001. Both teams 7-5 vs. line in 2013, though Wolverines covered their last three, and Brady Hoke was 3-1 as dog this season. KSU 3-5 vs. line last eight vs. non-conference foes. Slight to Michigan, based on team trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/12/2013 05:15 PM

Bowl Trends - Part II

December 12, 2013


Bowls scheduled between Monday, Dec. 30 and Monday, Jan. 6

Monday, December 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE vs. NAVY (Armed Forces Bowl)...Mids 1-3 vs. line last four bowls after covering previous four bowl appearances. Navy did cover five of last six n 2013. Mids 3-2 as chalk this season after 4-10 mark in role previous two years. MTSU just 1-6 vs. line last 7 away from home although Blue Raiders were 5-2 vs. spread away from Murfreesboro LY. Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.


OLE MISS vs. GEORGIA TECH (Music City Bowl)...Hugh Freeze cooled off a bit vs. number this season, only 6-6 vs. line after 20-5 the past two seasons. Rebs no covers last three away from home TY after covering 7 of previous 8 away from Oxford. GT just 1-4 vs. line last five years in bowls for Paul Johnson and 2-6 last 8 bowls vs. spread, Jackets also 0-4 as dog this season. Slight to Ole Miss, based on team trends.

TEXAS vs. OREGON (Alamo Bowl)...Ducks have covered last two and 4 of last 6 bowls, though Oregon dropped last four vs. number this season. Ducks also lost last two away from Eugene this season after covering previous eight away from Autzen Stadium. Horns have covered last two years in bowls but only 4-5 vs. line in postseason since 2003. Horns 1-2 as dog this season, 6-10 getting points since 2009 campaign. Slight to Oregon, based on team trends.


TEXAS TECH vs. ARIZONA STATE (Holiday Bowl)...TT hit the skids down the stretch in 2013, losing and failing to cover its last five games. Red Raiders also 1-6 vs. line in bowls since 2005, and TT just 2-7 as dog since 2012. Sun Devils 6-6 vs. spread away from home since Todd Graham arrived LY. Graham 14-6 as chalk since LY. ASU, based on team trends.


Tuesday, December 31

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. ARIZONA (Adocare V100 Independence Bowl)...BC first bowl since 2010, when it covered vs. Nevada in the Kraft Bowl, but had failed to cover four previous in postseason. BC 6-3 last nine vs. line in 2013. Eagles 3-2 as dog this season but 2-4 vs. line away, 2-10 vs. spread away since 2012. Cats only 3-6 last 9 vs. spread TY and 1-4 last 5 away from Tucson. UA no covers last 3 as chalk TY after covering previous five as favorite. Cats no covers last three bowls. Rich-Rod 1-6 vs. line in bowls. BC, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH vs. UCLA (Sun Bowl)...Frank Beamer 5-6-1 vs. line last 11 years in bowls, UCLA 3-3 vs. spread its last six bowl appearances. VPI 4-7-1 vs. line TY, 12-26-1 vs. line last 39 on board. Hokies were 2-1 as dog TY but 3-5-1 as dog since 2010. VPI 3-9-1 last 13 on board vs. non-ACC teams. Jim Mora’s Bruins are 16-10 vs. line since last season, 8-5 vs. line away from Rose Bowl. UCLA, based on team trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. RICE (Liberty Bowl)...MSU no covers last two years in bowls. Bulldogs did cover last four in 2013, but MSU 3-7 vs. spread last 10 away from Starkville. Rice covered its bowl LY and is 2-0 SU and vs. spread in bowls for David Bailiff. Owls 14-6 last 20 on board, also 7-2 last nine as dog. Rice, based on team trends.


DUKE vs. TEXAS A&M (Chick fil-A Bowl)...Ags no covers last three or six of last eight this season, also no covers in all four games away from College Station. Duke covered 7 of last 8 in 2013 and was 5-2 as dog this season. A&M 1-6 vs. line last seven bowls dating to the Franchione years. Duke, based on team trends.


Wednesday, January 1

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


NEBRASKA vs. GEORGIA (Gator Bowl)...Huskers no wins or covers last three bowls for Bo Pelini including against same Georgia in Capital One Bowl last season. Pelini 2-1 as dog in 2013 but was 0-5 in role previous two seasons. Mark Richt 5-2 vs. line last seven bowls, though Dawgs only 4-8 vs. line in 2013 and 2-4 vs. spread away from home. Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.


UNLV vs, NORTH TEXAS (Dallas Bowl)...First bowl for UNLV since 2000 season, first bowl for UNT since 2004. Mean Green won and covered 6 of last 7 TY and is 10-3 vs. spread since late in the 2012 campaign. UNT 7-2 as chalk this season. Rebs covered 5 of last 6 and 8 of last 10 this season, but 1-4 vs. line last 5 away from home vs. non-MW foes. Prior to covering 4 of 5 away this season, Rebs were 3-20 vs. spread previous 23 away from home. North Texas, based on team trends.


WISCONSIN vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Capital One Bowl)...Spurrier only 1-4 vs. line in bowls the past five seasons, 2-5 vs. spread in bowls with Gamecocks since 2005. Badgers 9-3 vs. line in 2013 (includes spread losses in last two games) and 15-6-1 last 22 on board since mid 2012. Gary Andersen teams 20-5 vs. spread since LY at USU and Wiscy. Badgers 5-3-1 vs. line last nine bowls. Slight to Wiscy, based on team trends

IOWA vs. LSU (Outback Bowl)...Rematch of Jan. 1, 2005 Cap One Bowl when Iowa scored on bomb on last play to beat LSU 30-25 in Nick Saban’s last game as Tigers coach. Hawkeyes 4-1 vs. line last five bowls and Kirk Ferentz 2-1 as dog this season, though only 3-7 in role previous two years. Les Miles 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, and Tigers just 4-7 vs. spread last 11 away from Baton Rouge. Slight to Iowa, based on team trends


MICHIGAN STATE vs. STANFORD (Rose Bowl)...Fourth straight BCS bowl for Stanford, 2-0-1 vs. line in those games since 2010 season. First MSU Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1988 vs. Southern Cal, a 20-17 Spartans win. MSU 9-2 vs. line last 11 in 2013, while Dantonio 3-0 as dog this season and 10-2 in role since 2011. Michigan State, based on Dantonio dog marks.

UCF vs. BAYLOR (Fiesta Bowl)...Bears 9-3 vs. line TY and 15-3 last 18 on board, but just 2-5 as chalk away from home since 2011. UCF 3-0 as dog in 2013, and O’Leary 5-2 last 7 as DD dog since 2009. UCF, based on team trends.


Thursday, January 2

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OKLAHOMA vs. ALABAMA (Sugar Bowl)...Bob Stoops faced Bama in 2002 & ’03 and won both SU, though failing to cover each. Sooners won and covered last two as road dog in 2013 but had dropped previous three spread decisions in rare dog role. Stoops 3-7 vs. line last 10 howls. Bama has won and covered its last four bowls, and Saban 14-6 last 20 as chalk away from Tuscaloosa. Slight to Bama, based on team trends.


Friday, January 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OKLAHOMA STATE vs. MISSOURI (Cotton Bowl)...Old Big 12 rivals. OSU won and covered last three meetings thru 2011. OSU 4-3 vs. line in bowls for Gundy. Cowboys 7-3 vs. spread last 10 away from Stillwater, and OSU 8-4 vs. spread in 2013, 33-15-1 last 49 on board. Pinkel 4-4 vs. line in bowls with Mizzou and Tigers 10-3 vs. line this season. Slight to OSU, based on extended trends.


CLEMSON vs. OHIO STATE (Orange Bowl)...Dabo returns to Orange Bowl, where Clemson was swamped by WVU two years ago. Dabo 2-3 vs. line in bowls but did upset LSU YR in Chick- fil-A. Tigers 1-2 as dog TY but 5-3 in role since 2011. Buckeyes 7-3 vs. line in bowls dating to Jim Tressel’s first season of 2001. Urban Meyer 6-1 vs. line in bowls at Utah & Florida, but Buckeyes no covers last four this season. Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.


Saturday, January 4

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

HOUSTON vs. VANDERBILT (BBVA Compass Bowl)...Cougs 10-2 vs. spread in 2013, 12-2 last 14 on board since late 2012. UH has also covered its last five as a dog and 7 straight away from home. Vandy only 1-3 as chalk this season after 11-3 in role previous two years for James Franklin. Dores 8-2 vs. line last 10 away from home stadium, but Vandy just 1-3 vs. lien against non-SEC this season. Houston, based on current trends.


Sunday, January 5

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ARKANSAS STATE vs. BALL STATE (GoDaddy.com Bowl)...Pete Lembo 8-4 vs. line TY, 17-8 since 2012, 22-09 last 31 on board. Also 13-5 last 18 vs. line away from Muncie, 11-4 last 15 as chalk. Ark State changing coaches again before its bowl, but Red Wolves only 5-7 vs. lien in 2013 despite covering 4 of last 5 on board. Ball State, based on team trends.


Monday, January 6

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


AUBURN vs. FLORIDA STATE (BCS Championship from Pasadena)... Auburn won last 99 SU and covered last 10 in 2013. Tigers 3-0 last three as dog or pick ‘em this season. Gus Malzahn 19-6 vs. spread last two years at Ark State & Auburn. Jimbo 3-0 SU and vs. line in bowls and Nole shave actually covered last nine bowl games! FSU has covered last 6 in 2013 and is 11-2 vs. spread this season. Slight to Auburn, based on Malzahn trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/12/2013 05:23 PM

Where the action is: Early NCAAF bowl line moves

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon State Beavers – Open: +2.5, Move: Pick, Move: -3

The Broncos, usually bowl season darlings, aren’t getting the usual love from football bettors. Early sharp money kick started the initial move from OSU +2.5 to pick’em and the public followed suit, betting the Beavers and flipping this spread on its ear.

“All this was on Monday when we first opened up our Bowl numbers,” Stewart says of the line movement. “After more money kept showing on Oregon State, just this morning we went to Oregon State -3 (-105) / Boise State +3 (-115). That is a very significant move and just after two days of action, going nearly four points off the opener, which pretty much tells you we opened with a bad number.”


Capital One Bowl

Wisconsin Badgers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks – Open: Wisconsin -2, Move: Pick

Bettors are known for siding with the SEC during bowl season, and the Capital One Bowl is no different. Books opened the Badgers as 2-point chalk but early action from wiseguys has bullied this spread all the way to a pick’em.

“We skipped going to -1 and went straight to a pick, which is our current number,” says Stewart. “While we’ve started to see some money on Wisconsin, we’re still seeing South Carolina money. I’m not sure when we’ll get there, but I have a feeling at some point over this weekend we will make South Carolina the favorite in this game.”


Chick-Fil-A Bowl

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Duke Blue Devils - Open: +13, Move: +12.5

Action started out balanced on this New Year’s Eve bowl but sharps came in on Duke Tuesday morning, trimming the line half a point. Since that adjustment, it’s been nothing but Aggies action and a move back to the original number may happen before the end of the week.

“We knew our opener of -13 was a bit high and understood the sharp money taking the points here, but at some point we might be going back to 13 to stem the early exposure that we seeing on Texas A&M at -12.5,” says Stewart. “Being that this is Johnny Manziel’s last college football game, we know the public is going to be all over A&M and we’ll be shading high on this game in anticipation of all that public money.”


Rose Bowl

Michigan State Spartans vs. Stanford Cardinal – Open: -3, Move: -4.5

It seems wiseguys aren’t impressed with Michigan State’s victory against an overrated Ohio State side in the Big Ten title game. Instant action came in Stanford from the sharps, moving this spread as many as 1.5 points before bettors decided MSU was worth the wager.

“We felt that after watching Michigan State upset Ohio State in impressive fashion, that we’d definitely book some money on what we perceived to being a live dog,” says Stewart. “That just wasn’t the case, until we got to the number +4.5 and that’s where we’re starting to see some Michigan State money show.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/12/2013 05:24 PM



Four best non-BCS bowls to watch and wager

Just like a kid waiting for Christmas morning, college football bettors are counting down the minutes until New Year’s Day, when the BCS bowls kick off.

While you wait it out for the big boys to clash, don’t put blinders on to the rest of bowl season. Here are four great non-BCS bowls to watch and wager on this holiday season:

Holiday Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+13.5)

Don’t let that near two-touchdown spread fool you. This could be one of the most entertaining bowl games – BCS or not – this entire bowl season.

The Red Raiders have the offensive weaponry to keep pace with ASU, averaging 35.7 points per game and airing it out for the second most yards in the country (392 yards per game). The Sun Devils come in deflated after a loss at home in the Pac-12 title game and could be walking into a shootout on Dec. 30.


Advocare V100 Bowl: Arizona Wildcats vs. Boston College (+7.5)

This New Year’s Eve bowl game will turn into a track meet between two of the most dynamic running backs in college football.

Boston College stud rusher and Heisman finalist Andre Williams – the nation’s top runner (2,102 yards) – takes on Arizona RB Ka'Deem Carey, who ranked fifth in the country with 1,720 yards on the ground. Many in the Tucson area believe Carey was snubbed by the Heisman folks and that the Wildcats will use the bowl stage to showcase their star player. Could be value in the Under with both teams looking to tear up the turf.


Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-11.5)

There are a couple reasons why this spread sits at a brow-furrowing 11.5 points. The Blue Devils are one of the surprise teams this season, going 10-3 SU and ATS. While Duke did get rolled by Florida State in the ACC title game, you can’t discount the Blue Devils for losing to a team that’s favored by almost nine points in the BCS Championship.

And the other reason is actually more of a question: Where is Johnny Manziel’s head going to be in his final college game? The former Heisman winner will likely jump to the pros after this New Year’s Eve performance. Will he go all out to boost his draft stock or get caught looking past Duke after a disappointing season?


Capital One Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1)

The nation’s most destructive defensive force – Gamecocks DL Jadeveon Clowney – runs into one of the most rock-solid offensive lines, with South Carolina and Wisconsin clashing at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

Clowney is another pro-ready talent likely making the leap to Sundays, but his stock took a knock this week when he was flagged for speeding – going 110 mph in a 70 zone. The Badgers consistently have one of the better offensive lines in the land. Wisconsin allowed only 15 sacks for a total of just 87 yards lost and averaged only five tackles for a loss allowed per game on the season. It’s a classic “unstoppable force meets immovable object” showdown.

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cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/14/2013 09:30 AM



Betting college football bowl season's coaching moves

We’re heading into bowl season, a time when some coaches are on the hot seat and when rising coaches and hot-shot coordinators are often on the move. Such moves can represent good opportunities for spot bets. Here’s a quick snapshot of the coaching carousel:

USC Trojans (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Holiday Bowl: -6 vs. Fresno State

Earlier this month, USC hired Steve Sarkisian away from Washington, prompting interim Trojans coach Ed Orgeron to quit before USC’s Las Vegas Bowl date with Fresno State on Dec. 21. In the interim, Clay Helton will lead USC – becoming the school’s third coach this season. Orgeron picked up the pieces and engineered a 6-2 SU finish to the season (5-3 ATS), and the Trojans would’ve run through a wall for him in the bowl game. But the players might not feel the same way about Helton.


Washington Huskies (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Fight Hunger Bowl: -3 BYU

The Huskies hired Chris Petersen away from Boise State, leaving Washington with interim coach Marques Tuiasosopo in the Fight Hunger Bowl vs. Brigham Young. Washington players are likely feeling the sting of Sarkisian spurning them for a Pac-12 rival. Perhaps they rise up for the bowl game.


Boise State Broncos (8-4, 6-6 ATS)

Hawaii Bowl: +2.5 vs. Oregon State

Interim coach Bob Gregory has the reins at Boise State. Chris Petersen led the Broncos to their greatest heights, including two BCS bowl victories. This year, Boise State goes to the Hawaii Bowl against Oregon State. Not exactly a BCS game. In fact, not even the same area code. Could a letdown follow? Bettors seem to think so, moving BSU from -2.5 to +2.5.


Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

GoDaddy Bowl: +9 vs. Ball State

Arkansas State coach Bryan Harsin jumped to Boise State to replace Petersen, so the Red Wolves will have interim coach John Thompson for the GoDaddy Bowl against Ball State. This line has jumped from -8 to -9 at some books.


Michigan State Spartans (12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Rose Bowl: +4.5 vs. Stanford

Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi is another hot prospect, having led a unit that is arguably the best in the nation. He already spurned Connecticut, so he might actually stick around to finish the job against Stanford in the Rose Bowl.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Pinstripe Bowl: -15.5 vs. Rutgers

Notre Dame, a 15.5-point favorite against Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl, has lost two key assistants. Defensive coordinator Bob Diaco bolted for the head coaching job at Connecticut, just a week after offensive coordinator Chuck Martin left to become head coach at Miami of Ohio.


Bowling Green Falcons (10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: -5 vs. Pittsburgh

Bowling Green’s Dave Clawson, whose squad upset Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, jumped ship to Wake Forest. So Bowling Green will lean on interim coach Adam Scheier against Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. The Falcons have dropped from -6 to -5 since Clawson’s departure.


Coaching moves to watch

The Mack Brown-Nick Saban soap opera continues. Brown is rumored to be resigning this week from Texas, which faces Oregon (-14) in the Alamo Bowl, and rumor has it Texas is offering piles of cash to Alabama’s Saban, who has a Sugar Bowl date with Oklahoma (+15). … Nebraska coach Bo Pelini is definitely on the hot seat heading into a meeting with Georgia (+9) in the Gator Bowl.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/14/2013 09:31 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Army vs. Navy
The Black Knights face a Navy team that is coming off a 58-52 OT win over San Jose State and is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Navy is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Midshipmen favored by 21 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Navy (-12 1/2).

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 14

Game 303-304: Army vs. Navy (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Army 65.288; Navy 86.864
Dunkel Line: Navy by 21 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Navy by 12 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Navy (-12 1/2); Under




NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, December 14

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ARMY (3 - 8) vs. NAVY (7 - 4) - 12/14/2013, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ARMY is 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 10-31 ATS (-24.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 2-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Saturday, December 14

Army at Navy, 3:00 ET
Army: 12-31 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Navy: 13-4 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog




NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, December 14

Navy won its last 11 games with Army (7-4 vs spread) which is always on a neutral field- they won their last three games overall, scoring 47.4 ppg and are going to a bowl to play Middle Tennessee; Middies are 2-2 as a favorite this year. Army lost its last four games, allowing 36.3 ppg; they're 2-5 as a dog in 2013, losing four of five road games, with only win over Louisiana Tech on a neutral field. Last seven games in this run-dominated series stayed under the total.




NCAAF

Saturday, December 14

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
ARMY vs. NAVY
Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
Army is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Navy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy's last 6 games


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NCAAF

Saturday, December 14

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Army vs. Navy: What bettors need to know
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Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen (-13, 53)

Game will be played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia

One of the oldest rivalries in college football has been a one-sided affair of late - and the early line suggests more of the same is in order as the Army Black Knights visit the Navy Midshipmen in the 114th edition of the Army-Navy game. Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field is the site of the latest battle between the two storied military schools. Navy comes in having won the last 11 matchups, squeaking out a 17-13 decision last year to improve to 57-49-7 in the series.

While the story off the field has been Army's inability to solve the Midshipmen, the focus on the field will be on which team can establish a more robust ground game. The Midshipmen struggled on defense but boasts the second-best rush attack in the nation, averaging more than 323 yards per game. Navy is right behind them at 320 rushing yards per contest, and is led by sophomore quarterback Keenan Reynolds and his mind-boggling 26 rushing touchdowns.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, CBS
LINE: Navy enters as a 13-point fave, with the over/under set at 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 90 percent chance of rain and/or snow. Wind will blow across the width of the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT ARMY (3-8): The Midshipmen were set to challenge for their first .500 season since 2010, but dropped four straight games heading into its finale to fall to 8-27 over the past three years. As good as the rushing game has been - eight different players have recorded at least one score on the ground - the passing game averages just 80 yards per outing while generating just four touchdowns in 11 games. Running back Terry Baggett leads the team with 1,072 rushing yards, while quarterback Angel Santiago actually has more yards on the ground (553) than through the air (542).

ABOUT NAVY (7-4): Reynolds had his share of impressive games in 2013 - scoring three or more touchdowns five times heading into mid-November - but saved his best work for the Midshipmen's thrilling 58-52 triple-overtime victory over San Jose State. The Antioch, Tenn., native exploded for 240 yards and seven rushing scores, leaving him one TD shy of the single-season record for a quarterback shared by Ricky Dobbs and Collin Klein. Ten different Navy players scored a rushing touchdown, while the Midshipmen racked up 43 scores on the ground compared to eight through the air.

TRENDS:

* Black Knights are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games following a bye week.
* Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an SU win.
* Under is 10-1 in Army's last 11 neutral-site games.
* Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.


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NCAAF

Saturday, December 14

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Does winter weather give value to Over in Army-Navy?
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Philadelphia football fans are in for another wild winter game when Army takes on Navy at Lincoln Financial Field Saturday.

Almost a week after the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions scored a combined 54 points in the middle of a blizzard, the annual meeting between armed forces is expected to get hit with snow and ice.

The forecast in Philadelphia is calling for a 100 percent chance snow, changing to ice pellets later in the game. Temperatures will dip below freezing and winds will blow ENE at 8 mph.

Both the Black Knights and Midshipmen rely heavily on the spread option offense, ranking No. 2 and No. 3 in rushing yards per game, respectively. While the knee-jerk reaction to winter weather in football games is to take the Under, last Sunday’s NFL game in Philadelphia proved otherwise.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23607 Followers:32
12/14/2013 09:34 AM

My Pick:

Navy (-12 1/2);

Under 51

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: