coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:29 AM

Denver has a great offense
(Broncos have outpointed per game the second highest scoring team in the league by a greater margin than the #2 team has outpointed the #31 scoring team)
BUT, a below average defense (17th yards per play)

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:30 AM

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns minus-7
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Jaguars


Public perception: Yes, the public is back on the Jaguars, fresh off their 13-6 upset of the Texans on Sunday. Part of the reason is also probably due to the Browns' blowout loss to the Steelers last week as a small favorite and QB Jason Campbell, who had been serviceable, being sidelined with a concussion. That means Brandon Weeden is back in the starting lineup.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps have also been gobbling up the Jaguars plus-7, and frankly I'm a little surprised this hasn't dipped below a TD. In regards to teasers, I haven't heard anyone excited about teasing the Browns down to under a field goal, which would normally be an automatic play for many teaser players with a favorite in this price range.

Tuley's Take: The Jaguars, despite having one of the worst defenses in the league, just shut down Case Keenum and the Texans on the road, so why can't they do the same to Weeden & Co.? I would also look to play the under 40.5.

The pick: Jaguars

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:30 AM


coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:31 AM

Roof open in Texas

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:31 AM

BIG NEWS


coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:33 AM


Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers minus-8.5
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Buccaneers


Public perception: This is a tough call, as the Panthers had covered six straight before failing to cover the closing spread of minus-5 in their 20-16 win over the Dolphins last week (though some early wiseguys got the win on them at minus-3.5) and the Buccaneers are coming off back-to-back wins over the Falcons and Lions and a cover in their last three games. In the end, it's probably the high spread -- especially with the Panthers' win/non-cover last week -- that has the public on the underdog.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are also on the Bucs, as this has been bet down from the opening line of Panthers minus-9.5. However, this will be a very popular teaser plays on the Panthers by both sharps and squares.

Tuley's Take: I certainly respect what the Panthers have done so far this year (and I have Cam Newton on my fantasy team), but this was a pretty easy call, as I had the Bucs against the Lions on Sunday at a similar spread. And even though the Lions and Panthers are very different teams, the Bucs are playing way better than they were when they lost the first meeting, 31-13, on Oct. 24.

The pick: Buccaneers

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:33 AM

Peyton Manning, road games December or later: 10-19 ATS

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:35 AM

NFL BLITZ BIG 5 PICKS

1) San Diego +1
2) Tampa Bay +8


Perfect look ahead for the Panthers, Bucs playing great.

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:36 AM

Alex Smith last 36 games as a starter: 29-7-1 SU

coleryan Posts:11963 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:36 AM

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48.5)

After defeating three of the league's worst teams (Atlanta, Houston and Jacksonville), Arizona notched an impressive 40-11 victory over AFC South-leading Indianapolis last week. Palmer has thrown for 300-plus yards in back-to-back games and has a 110.8 quarterback rating during the four-game winning streak. As usual, Larry Fitzgerald is the focal point of the Cardinals' offense, hauling in two touchdowns last week.

The Eagles' Chip Kelly, coming off a bye week for the first time as an NFL coach, needed the extra time to improve a defense that ranks last in the league in passing yards allowed. That said, the Eagles' defense has surrendered 21 points or fewer in seven straight games, including their most recent contest - a 24-16 triumph over Washington in which Trent Cole had two of the team's four sacks.

LINE: The Eagles are steady 3-point faves. The total is holding at 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with partly cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-2.5) - Philadelphia (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Eagles -1.5
TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
* Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.
* Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.