coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:16 AM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 41.5)

Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has blossomed since taking over the starting job and has thrown for 10 touchdowns and one interception in the past six games. Running back Bobby Rainey also has injected life into the offense with 243 rushing yards and four TDs (three rushing, one receiving) in the past three games. The defense has been solid against the run but susceptible against the pass.

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (379 yards, 5 TDs) and No. 1 running back DeAngelo Williams (610 yards, 2 TDs) lead a strong ground game and Newton has been efficient when forced to throw the ball. While Newton's maturation has grabbed much of the attention, Carolina's defense has been a force, ranking first in the league in scoring (13.7) and third in total yards (297.5).

LINE: The Panthers opened -9.5 but have been bet down to -7.5. The total is set at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+3.5) + Carolina (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -11.5
TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with winning records.
* Panthers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:19 AM

NFL BLITZ BIG 5 PICKS

Okay let's get these up and early and keep the winners coming!

1) San Diego +1

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:20 AM

KC: First 9-2 team to be greater than a FG home underdog (in at least 25 years)

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:20 AM

- Perhaps Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew has turned the corner on his season? The vet is coming off his best game of the season, carrying the ball 14 times for 84 yards and one TD in last week's win over the Houston Texans.

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:26 AM

Only 4 teams with a worse "net yards per play" than KC

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:26 AM

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 50)

Chicago's recent struggles can't be pinned on quarterback Jake McCown, who has passed for seven touchdowns with only one interception and boasts a 100.8 rating. Matt Forte didn't practice Wednesday, but coach Marc Trestman told reporters he is optimistic about the running back's status for Sunday. The Bears already have the league's worst run defense and they'll likely be without three defensive starters - including linebacker Lance Briggs.

The Vikings let one get away last week, blowing a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter of their 26-26 tie with the Packers. Christian Ponder is back in the driver's seat of the team's quarterback carousel and passed for 233 yards and a touchdown last week. Peterson is still the force that drives the offense, though, and he averages 107.7 yards and has 14 touchdowns in 11 career games against Chicago

LINE: The Vikings have remained 1-point faves with the total rising two points to 50.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-1.0) + Minnesota (+5.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -3.5
TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games vs. NFC foes.
* Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.
* The home team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:28 AM


coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:28 AM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers - Open: -8, Move: -7

The Panthers come into this NFC South meeting riding a sizzling seven-game winning streak and are 6-1 ATS during that stretch. The Buccaneers are hot in their own right, having won three straight, but injuries could play a big factor Sunday.

"Tampa Bay has been much better recently, but are in tough with TE’s and RB’s missing and/or banged up," says Black. "Carolina has played tough D, and though they have their own injury worries, they should be too much for Tampa. One of the more lopsided games we have action wise, with about 8-to-1 Carolina action ATS."

At BetDSI, this is a classic "sharps versus public" game with sharp bettors backing the vastly improved Bucs.

"Sharp vs Public split on the Tampa vs Carolina match up with smart money backing the Bucs at the +8 line value," says one oddsmaker. "The public is siding with Cam Newton and the red-hot Carolina Panthers."

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:28 AM

- Sunday marks the fourth time all season that the Cleveland Browns are favored. The Browns are 1-2 ATS and SU in the three games they have favored in thus far.

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
12/01/2013 10:29 AM

Injuries

Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos (questionable, knee)
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos (probable, ankle)


It's a good-news kind of week for Manning and the Broncos, who are expected to have both Thomas and Moreno on the field for Sunday's pivotal showdown with the Chiefs. Thomas practiced on a limited basis for most of the week but showed no side effects from the knee injury that sidelined him for last week's overtime loss to New England. Moreno, who busted out for 227 rushing yards in that game, suffered an ankle injury late but practiced in full on Friday and declared himself good to go.

The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites in Kansas City, with the total at 49.5.