foliomatrix Posts:56 Followers:38
On 11/25/2013 05:50 PM in NFL

Got an algorithm?

We think tonight is a case of Vegas trying to trick the public. The line for the game (opened at -6) has dropped to -5.5 or some places -4.5, making the Redskins look appealing like money is coming in on Washington, but again we think Vegas is trying to get the public off the scent of an easy San Francisco ATS win.

Why? After doing our math and getting each teams' current true performance ratings, estimating these ratings versus each other, and finally kicking around all possible game outcomes against the point spread, we think there is a very small chance (about 25%) that the Redskins cover the 5.5 points.

Your courtesy pick:

San Francisco 49ers -5.5