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therock
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Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

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On 10/27/2011 12:53 AM in NCAA Football
For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we caught up with Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF live odds

Virginia at Miami -15.5 --->-13.5

Looks like this is yet another case of what have you done for me lately. The Hurricanes just drilled Georgia Tech 24-7 as a 2.5-point favorite while Virginia was spanked 28-14 at home by N.C. State, falling to 2-5 against the spread.

“This number came out slightly inflated based on Miami's big win over GT and UVA's home loss to NC State,” Fuhrman says. “These two teams are very inconsistent and typically alternate good efforts with clunkers so bettors saw value with the Wahoos above 14.”

Illinois at Penn State -6 ---> -4.5

Illinois has dropped two straight as a favorite and Penn State has covered only twice in its last 10 contests, so maybe it’s just a case of too many points with a pair of inconsistent teams squaring off.

“Did Illinois even leave Champaign last week? You wouldn’t know it by the level of effort they displayed,” Fuhrman says “Points could be at a premium in Happy Valley this week and when you talk about a total in the low 40's [currently 40.5] there's always going to be interest in betting a dog that can run the football.”

Baylor at Oklahoma State -16 ---> -14

Even though Oklahoma State has covered the number in each of its last six overall and in five straight meetings with Baylor, bettors aren’t buying the Cowboys. “Oklahoma State hasn't instilled bettors with a lot of confidence each of the past few weeks,” Fuhrman says. “Sharp money seems intent to bet against them again this week like they did against Missouri and Texas the week before. The Pokes’ wideouts are banged up and Baylor could have some surprises in store entering off a bye but this is still a Bears team with a Swiss cheese defense.”

NFL live odds

Washington at Buffalo -4 ---> -6

The Bills are coming off their bye week as they set out on their annual trip north of the border, while Washington only wishes it could erase last week from history considering all the injuries the Redskins picked up.

“Public money has poured in on Buffalo with all the injuries wreaking havoc on the Redskins offense,” Fuhrman says. “Washington lost Santana Moss, Tim Hightower, and Chris Cooley to major injuries and could find moving the football a challenge. However, I don't think the betting public is factoring in that this game will be played in Toronto and not at Ralph Wilson Stadium.”

Miami at New York Giants -9 ---> -10

The Giants are another club playing on the heels of their bye week and they couldn’t ask for a better matchup to ease back into action. Miami has yet to cover a pointspread this season.

“It's not going to take a lot for people to fade the Dolphins every week from here on out,” Fuhrman says. “The Fish will be a team we're going to struggle getting any public action on the rest of the season and until we inflate the price high enough, public money will fade them with reckless abandon.”
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