coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:22 AM

NFL BLITZ BIG 5 PICKS!

1) Cardinals -3

The Cardinals are not getting the respect that the deserve, but they will this week when they beat the Colts in a big way.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-2-1
coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:22 AM

- The Packers have lost back-to-back games at home and haven't lost three straight since 2006.

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coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:22 AM

Each of Jags 9 losses by double digits

Jacksonville worse than the #31 ranked team by 6 points (in the Vegas Rankings)

  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-2-1
coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:24 AM

- Jacksonville QB Chad Henne passed for 354 yards and four touchdowns against the Texans in last season’s game. The Jags are currently 10-point road dogs Sunday.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-2-1
coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:24 AM


Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers minus-4.5
Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Packers


Public perception: The consensus pick is showing the public is more on the Packers (which is never surprising), but it didn't start that way early this week. After it was announced that Aaron Rodgers wouldn't be pushing his return up to this weekend, this line opened at Green Bay minus-5 and even minus-5.5 at some books, and all the early money came in on the Vikings. Now, at minus-4.5, the public will mostly be back on the Pack.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps also came in on the Vikings early, though it wasn't due to Christian Ponder being given the starting nod despite being replaced by Matt Cassel on Sunday. It was more just the market responding to how the Packers' power rating hasn't been lowered enough without Rodgers.

Tuley's Take: I was on the Packers the past two weeks as underdogs and they came up short. I personally don't believe it's all due to the drop-off from Rodgers to Scott Tolzien, but I'm not willing to lay the points to prove it (though I think they're the right side). The pick: Pass (pool play: Packers).

  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-2-1
coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:26 AM

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals - Open: -2.5, Move: -3

The subplot here is Cardinals coach Bruce Arians facing the team he served as interim coach when Chuck Pagano was battling leukemia. The Colts are facing some injury concerns and it's the Cards that have been a popular play among bettors since this line opened.

"Action has been loving the Cards by about a 3-to-1 clip, but SU sees more Indy action as the road dog," Black said. "The total has creeped up and sees Over play, as most non-conference games do."

  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-2-1
coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:27 AM

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals - Open: -2.5, Move: -3

The subplot here is Cardinals coach Bruce Arians facing the team he served as interim coach when Chuck Pagano was battling leukemia. The Colts are facing some injury concerns and it's the Cards that have been a popular play among bettors since this line opened.

"Action has been loving the Cards by about a 3-to-1 clip, but SU sees more Indy action as the road dog," Black said. "The total has creeped up and sees Over play, as most non-conference games do."

  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-2-1
coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:27 AM

Injuries: Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers (PUP, Achilles)

There's some thought that Crabtree might be activated from the physically-unable-to-perform list as early as this week after he made an appearance at practice on Thursday. The 49ers remain mum about a timetable for the standout wide receiver, who hasn't played all season after suffering an Achilles injury over the summer. It may be a stretch to expect him back Monday night - but Crabtree could be back in Week 13, a development that would greatly bolster a pass attack that ranks last in the league in yards per game (168).

San Francisco is a 4.5-point favorite for the Monday nighter against the Redskins. The total is set at 47.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-2-1
coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:28 AM

More Injury news

Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins (out, concussion)

While San Francisco goes into its tilt with Washington having known that Crabtree wouldn't be ready for Week 12, the Redskins face a key absence that is no less significant but slightly more of a surprise. Washington had hoped that Reed would be able to pass his concussion protocol in time for the game, but he remains in limbo and hasn't practiced all week. Reed has been one of quarterback Robert Griffin III's favorite targets to date - racking up 499 yards and three touchdowns - and leaves Pierre Garcon as the only pass-catching asset in Washington's arsenal.

Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos (questionable, knee)

The week's most highly anticipated showdown - Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, Chapter 14 - may be missing one of the Broncos' key contributors. Thomas was limited in practice throughout the week, and interim head coach Jack Del Rio offered little information to reporters about the tight end's availability for the showdown in New England. Joel Dreessen would step into the starting role if Thomas couldn't go; the roster move would give Manning one fewer reliable option in his aerial attack, but Denver has plenty of other weapons where that is concerned.

The Broncos come into the Sunday nighter at New England as a 1-point favorite, with the total at 53.5.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (questionable, groin)

Last year's most dynamic offensive player hasn't been nearly as explosive so far in 2013 - and a nagging groin injury will likely hamper him even further. Peterson sat out Thursday's practice but returned to the field the following day and assured reporters that the ailment wouldn't keep him out of action. While the injury may have had a hand in limiting the defending rushing champion to just 140 yards on 42 carries over back-to-back weeks, he'll be facing a Green Bay defense that allows more than four yards per carry.

Minnesota is a 4.5-point underdog in Green Bay on Sunday. The total is set at 43.5.

Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys (probable, hamstring)

The Cowboys will have a full complement of healthy receiving options for the first time since Week 3 as Austin makes his return from a nagging hamstring injury. After it was thought that he might be ready to return as soon as Week 10, Austin was a full participant in practice this week and declared himself close to 100 percent. Austin is expected to slide into the No. 2 receiver slot opposite Dez Bryant, though he and rookie Terrance Williams will both see plenty of targets - and may provide Bryant with a break from the weekly double-teams he has faced.

Dallas is installed as a one-point underdog against the host New York Giants. The total is 45.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 3-2-1
coleryan Posts:20904 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:28 AM


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