coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:16 AM

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4, 43.5)

Wide receiver Greg Jennings (Achilles) returned to practice Thursday while running back Adrian Peterson (groin) sat out again, but coach Leslie Frazier said they both should be ready for the game. Peterson, who vowed to break the NFL's single-season rushing mark before the campaign began, won't come close to that mark as he has only 851 yards and nine touchdowns.

Green Bay players aren't afraid to call this a must-win as the Packers sit a game behind both Chicago and Detroit in the division race. Green Bay has won seven of the last eight matchups with Minnesota, including a 24-10 victory in last season's playoff opener at Lambeau Field. The Packers have lost tight end Jermichael Finley for the season and have to wait until Week 15 for the return of wide receiver Randall Cobb.

LINE: Green Bay opened -5 but has been bet down to -4. The total has dropped a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+6.0) - Green Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -4.5
TRENDS:

* Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.
* Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with losing records.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:17 AM

Trouble in Washington


  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:17 AM

Detroit: 26th best defense; 5th best red zone score defense (very likely lucky so far in red zone)

What Wiseguys saw last week improved TB’s power ranking by two points – biggest change (upgrade or downgrade) of the week.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:18 AM

Brings new meaning to living on a prayer


  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:18 AM

Jags: 3-12 ATS run

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:18 AM

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10, 43.5)

Leading tackler Paul Posluszny will be back after the middle linebacker missed last weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a concussion. Jacksonville held the Cardinals to 14 rushing yards, prompting Posluszny (88 tackles) to joke that perhaps his presence isn’t all that important. The offense’s rushing abilities were just as meager as the Jaguars had a season-worst 32 rushing yards

Houston quarterback Case Keenum tossed three touchdown passes in back-to-back games but head coach Gary Kubiak didn’t like what he was seeing in the third quarter of the Oakland contest and pulled him in favor of Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson is 10 receptions away from becoming the 15th player in NFL history to reach 900, while defensive end J.J. Watt (8.5 sacks) heads the league’s top defense (286.1 yards per game).

LINE: Houston has dropped from a -10.5 open to -10. The total is up a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+9.0) - Houston (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -7
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Texans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Under is 10-3-1 in Jacksonville's last 14 games vs. the AFC South.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:18 AM

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders - Open: -1.5, Move: +1

Though it may not seem like it, considering the teams featured, this game could be an important one for the AFC playoff picture with the loser probably destined for the golf course come playoff time. Raiders QB Matt McGloin played quite well in his debut and could be under center once again for the silver and black.

"One factor that will sway the line in Oakland's favor is if Terrelle Pryor can suit up," Black tells Covers. "He's reported to be the backup, and may possibly see the field in certain scenarios, or take the field if McGloin struggles. Given the injuries on both sides, it's a game that isn't getting any sustained action but so far it's pretty split. I expect that we will see Oakland action as the game draws closer."

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:19 AM

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans minus-10
Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Jaguars


Public perception: Yes, the public is on the Jaguars for once, but it's clearly more a case of them being fed up with the Texans. Houston has burned the public even more over the course of the season.

Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys snapped up the early numbers of Jaguars plus-11 and plus-10.5, again also mostly fading the Texans as opposed to supporting the Jaguars.

Tuley's Take: These two teams are tied for the worst ATS record in the NFL, as cited in my "Opening Line" column on Monday. As with the public and wiseguys, there's just no reason the Texans should be favored by this many points even against the Jags. I guess the Jacksonville defense could be the cure for all of the Texans' ills and the Jags could roll to a big victory. However I'm betting against it. The Jaguars have to feel this is their best chance for a win since beating the Titans (who nearly beat the Texans way back in Week 2).

The pick: Jaguars.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:20 AM


  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21325 Followers:24
11/24/2013 10:20 AM

The Lions are 0-10 ATS (-7.40 ppg) since ficial turf after a loss as a favorite

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0