coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:42 AM

- The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between AFC North rivals Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns are currently 5.5-point dogs at Cincy Sunday.

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coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:42 AM


Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Chargers minus-1.5
Public consensus pick: 85 percent picked Chargers

Public perception: Both these teams have been pretty hard to figure out. They look good one week, then disappoint the next. The public is all over the Chargers here, though I'm guessing it's more of a reaction to seeing the Dolphins lose to the Buccaneers because the Chargers have lost two in a row themselves.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps generally like to look at home underdogs, and they have plenty to choose from this week as this is fifth of six on the week (starting with the Titans pushing with plus-3 against the Colts Thursday night) and the fourth in Sunday's early games.

Tuley's Take: I've been high on the Chargers most of the year and they've mostly been good to me, but despite rallying to make their 28-20 loss to the Broncos last week look respectable, they didn't look good. While I'm ready to bail on them, I'm not willing to do it with the Dolphins, who also have come back to earth, losing five of their past six after a 3-0 start.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Chargers).

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:43 AM

This line has moved more since the Pouncey news

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins - Open: +1, Move: +2.5
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The Chargers come into this one cold, having lost two games in a row both SU and ATS. Despite that, San Diego opened as 1-point road faves at most outlets and with sharps getting in on the action early, oddsmakers don't see the line moving from here on out.

"On Tuesday we got sharp play on Bolts -1, so we moved to the current number of -2.5," Perry says. "Expect us to stay on -2.5 until kickoff. Eighty percent of money is on San Diego."

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coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:43 AM

- The Houston Texans have lost their last three games by a combined seven points.

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coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:49 AM


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coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:49 AM

Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez (toe) is probable today versus Tampa Bay.

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coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:49 AM


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coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:50 AM

Jets: Any team off win as home dog: 4-20 ATS next game

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coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:50 AM

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)

Minnesota's starting quarterback vs. Seattle's home-field advantage


No team in the league enjoys more of an edge in its own stadium than the Seahawks, who have turned CenturyLink Field into a house of horrors for opposing offenses. Seattle has outscored opponents by more than 60 points in its four home wins - and while Tampa Bay nearly pulled off a major upset two weeks ago, the fact that it didn't - after leading 21-0 with 2:16 remaining in the first half - speaks to how dominant the Seahawks can be when they pull it altogether. None of that bodes well for whichever poor soul stands under center for Minnesota on Sunday.

That the starter remains unnamed may be a problem in itself - no team likes going into such a pivotal game without having a sense of who will be throwing the passes. But whether it's Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman or the injured Christian Ponder, the lucky winner will be up against a Seattle defense surrendering fewer than 16 points per game while allowing the third-fewest yards in the NFL. Add in the fact that opposing quarterbacks are averaging just over 175 yards in Seattle so far in 2013, and things aren't looking good for Minnesota's mystery QB.

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coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
11/17/2013 10:50 AM

Fans ready to go in Pittsburgh

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