coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:34 AM

Ohio State's defense has NOT allowed a 20-yard run all season

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:34 AM

When Texas Tech played as Road Team- With Total 54.5 or more; OVER is 9-1-0 for the Red Raiders in this spot L10

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:37 AM

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -3.5, Total: 46


After struggling early in conference play, USC has a chance to send a message to the rest of the conference when it hosts red-hot No. 5 Stanford on Saturday night.

Although the Cardinal have beaten the Trojans four straight times, the past three wins have been by only 2, 8 and 7 points. This includes a 56-48 triple overtime thriller the last time the Pac-12 foes met in L.A. in 2011. This season has the chance to be another close one, because USC has turned things around under interim coach Ed Orgeron, going 4-1 (SU, and ATS), with the lone loss coming to Notre Dame. The resurgence has also been sparked by sophomore QB Cody Kessler who has 6 TD passes and just 2 INT since Orgeron took over for Lane Kiffin. But Kessler will face his most difficult test Saturday as he goes against a Stanford defense that shut out Oregon for the first three quarters of last week's game. The Cardinal defense has been terrific this season, allowing just 19.4 PPG, which ranks 18th in the country. Stanford allows the short passes over the middle, forcing teams to have to go the entire field to score. The Cardinal, who are riding a three-game win streak (SU and ATS) are a tough team to stop once they get hot, going 21-7 ATS (75%) after an SU win over the past three seasons, and 16-5 ATS (76%) after 2+ straight wins in this same timeframe. But since 1992, USC is 17-4 ATS (81%) at home after 2+ consecutive ATS victories, and 10-2 ATS (83%) at home coming off a road blowout win of 28+ points.

While the defense gets a lot of the talk for Stanford, it was the offense, namely the rushing attack, that played a key role in not allowing the Oregon offense to get rolling in last week's 26-20 upset. RB Tyler Gaffney carried the ball 45 times in the game for 157 yards and one touchdown. While the 3.5 yards per carry was not extremely high, the Cardinal lined up in a strong power formation and just wore the Ducks down. With Gaffney (1,043 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 13 TD) running the ball so effectively, it makes the play-action fake very difficult to stop for the Cardinal. Junior WR Ty Montgomery has the ability to get behind the defense with his blazing speed, and has developed a solid rapport with quarterback Kevin Hogan (1,596 pass yards, 8.4 YPA, 13 TD, 5 INT). Although Montgomery hasn't caught a TD pass in four straight games, Hogan does have the ability to get out on the perimeter and allow his receivers more time to get open, setting up the big plays. If the offense is able to move the football against the Trojans, then Stanford will be in good shape, as the defense will look to make the sophomore quarterback’s night miserable. Junior safety Jordan Richards has three interceptions on the season, including a 30-yard touchdown against Washington State. Look for Richards to play a lot of deep coverage to prevent USC star WR Marqise Lee from getting deep. If Lee is able to get behind the defense, he's just too fast to catch up with.

QB Cody Kessler struggled to get into a rhythm passing the ball early in the season, but has gotten more comfortable with the offense the past couple of weeks, evidenced by his 81.6% completion rate. In the victory over California last weekend, he had a great game, completing 14-of-17 passes for 170 yards and two touchdowns. Junior WR Marqise Lee (38 catches, 521 yards, 2 TD) has not come close to duplicating his 1,721 yards and 14 TD catches as a sophomore, but he is still one of the most talented receivers in all of the country. He is able to go over the middle and make the tough catch, but also has the speed and elusiveness to take it the distance on every single play. The emergence of sophomore RB Tre Madden has also helped the USC offense get rolling, as he has rushed for 671 yards (5.2 YPC) and three touchdowns this season. At 220 pounds, he is a powerful back that also has the ability to run by defenders. The Trojans did not have an offensive identity early in the year, but with Madden running the ball like he has, it has opened up the entire offense. The defense, which was thought to be the weak point entering the season, has been terrific. The Trojans rank 19th in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 19.6 points per game. Junior safety Dion Bailey has been great all year, intercepting three passes to go along with 46 tackles. Like Richards of Stanford, he will be counted upon to not let the receiver behind him, as Montgomery has similar abilities to Lee.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:39 AM

Two teams that just can't seem to lose of late meet Saturday when the Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) visit the Texas Longhorns (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX).

Line: Oklahoma State -3, Total: 63.5

Line movement and notes: Through Thursday morning, there's been no movement off the key number since the Cowboys opened as 3-point favorites all over Las Vegas.

History and trends: Texas won last year's meeting in Stillwater, 41-36, covering a 2-point spread.

Oklahoma State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Texas' last eight November games.

The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Oklahoma State outlook: Oklahoma State was expected to do big things this year and so far they have not disappointed. The only blemish on the schedule is a mind-boggling nine-point loss at West Virginia. Other than that, the Cowboys have been nearly perfect.

The offense has been solid, but the defense is doing the real damage. The Cowboys D is allowing 387 yards per game, but that number is skewed because their opponents are often in comeback mode. Oklahoma State is allowing just 4.7 yards per play, which ranks 14th in the country, and they're forcing 2.8 turnovers per game, which ranks sixth. This is a scary defense that neutralizes offenses while also capitalizing on errors.

Texas outlook: Texas continues to win games, to the tune of six in a row, but mounting injuries are going to continue to make things challenging. Quarterback David Ash and linebacker Jordan Hicks have already been out, and during last week's win over West Virginia, the Longhorns lost two more key players – running back Johnathan Gray and defensive tackle Chris Whaley.

Texas may have the depth to fill those new holes, but the upcoming schedule is difficult. After Oklahoma State this week, it's Texas Tech next and then a visit to Baylor in the final game of the season. The remainder of this schedule will be a huge test to see how much adversity the Longhorns can overcome.

Weather: Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-70s throughout Saturday's game with a ten percent chance of rain. Check wunderground.com for an updated forecast.

The Linemakers' lean: This is just the third time since 2003 that Texas has been an underdog at home, and the Longhorns are 0-3 in those spots. Oklahoma State has won and covered the last two at Texas and has revenge in mind after last season's loss in Stillwater. According to The Linemakers' Kenny White, there's a 4-point drop from David Ash, who is still out with a concussion, to Case McCoy, and we also give a significant coaching edge to Mike Gundy over Mack Brown. Oklahoma State is the play.

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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:39 AM


  • Last 7 Days Record: 2-3-0
coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:40 AM

Terrapins are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:45 AM

NC State WR Bra-Lon Cherry is out Saturday

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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:45 AM

The Spartans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.

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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:46 AM

Nick Bogdanovich, a veteran Vegas bookmaker, now the Director of Trading at William Hill U.S., gets four sets of independent numbers from consultants before setting his college football point spreads. Each set of numbers had Stanford as a 3-point favorite at Southern Cal on Saturday.

Man, that seems low. At the end of September, Stanford was a 7-point favorite over the Trojans at the LVH SuperBook. A lot has changed since then, but has the gap between these two teams really narrowed?

“You have to worry about Stanford with an emotional letdown, coming off that big victory (26-20 over Oregon last Thursday),” said Bogdanovich. “S.C. is playing much better ball now under (coach Ed Orgeron); Marqise Lee looks healthy. The public will probably still be on Stanford, but, according to all the experts out there 3 or 3 ½ is right there.”

Since taking over for Lane Kiffin at the beginning of October, Orgeron has led the Trojans to a 4-1 mark, straight-up and against the spread. He’s certainly energized the Trojans, but has he really increased their overall talent and depth to a level where they can compete with a physical Stanford team that just dominated mighty Oregon?

Bettors gravitated to the Cardinal early in the week. As of Wednesday, the line had been bet up to Stanford -4 at most shops, including William Hill. Bogdanovich said he was a little heavy on money and tickets on Stanford, but nothing significant.

The Cardinal (8-1, 5-4 against the spread) have beaten USC four straight and have covered the number in seven of the last 10 meetings. Coach David Shaw’s team wore down the Trojans in the second half of last season’s 21-14 win at home. Stanford, a 9.5-point underdog in that game, rushed for 202 yards and passed for 212 yards in the win.

Shaw’s team appears to be peaking and has bounced from an upset loss at Utah with three straight wins over ranked opponents, none more impressive than last week’s win over Oregon.

Stanford held the Ducks’ offense averaging more than 50 points to a season-low in points and rushing yards (62).

The Cardinal have been dominant on the road, covering the spread in 11 of 14 away games in Shaw’s three seasons as head coach.

Leading rusher Tyler Gaffney was dinged up against Oregon and was listed as questionable early in the week. His status will need to be managed. If Gaffney is limited, Barry Sanders Jr. could play a bigger role for the Stanford offense.

The Trojans (7-3, 5-5 ATS) also are playing their best football of the season. USC’s defense ranks 17th in the nation and second behind Stanford in the Pac-12. The offense has been more explosive of late and should be even more potent with the return of Marqise Lee to full strength. A preseason Heisman contender, Lee has battled injuries throughout the season, but is expected to be 100 percent against the Cardinal on Saturday.

Even though the Trojans aren't ranked, their best player still believes that this game means something. "It's a spotlight game for us, you know, coming from where we came from, the things that are going on, that went on in this program," Lee told reporters this week. "This one, you could say, is a little bit bigger."

Sophomore QB Cody Kessler has strung together three solid performances, throwing four touchdowns with only one interception in wins over Utah, Oregon State and California. USC has failed to cover the spread in its last four games as a home underdog.

Since Stanford and USC rely on a ball-control style of offense, don't expect either team to push the tempo. Stanford is averaging 65.3 offensive plays per game, while USC has run average of 62 plays in its last three games. Eleven of the Cardinal’s 14 road games under Shaw also have stayed UNDER the total.

The Linemakers' lean: We're a little wary of a potential letdown for Stanford after its big win over Oregon last week, and USC has found its groove since Ed Orgeron took over. But instead of playing the side, we're sensing an opportunity with the total, which sat at about 46 as of Thursday evening. Stanford has no problem playing a grind-it-out style, and USC figures to have trouble moving the ball against the Cardinal defense. Seven of these teams' last eight games combined have stayed UNDER, and our money is on that trend to continue on Saturday.

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coleryan Posts:21487 Followers:24
11/16/2013 11:46 AM

Oklahoma is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS home off a loss of more than 7 points under Bob Stoops.

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