Sean's Free Pick
0 Reply | 116 ViewsOn 11/14/2013 10:43 AM in Cappers
Point Spread: -2½/-110 Indianapolis
Sean Higgs has your Thursday Night NFL Network will feature the 6-3 Indianapolis Colts visiting LP Field to take on the 4-3 Tennessee Titans. A little bit of the shine is off this game as both teams are in off terrible losses. Indianapolis was throttled at home by the St Louis Rams 38-8, while the Titans suffered the indignity of losing to the win-less Jaguars. To add insult to injury, Tennessee has appeared to have lost QB Jake Locker for the year with an injury.
I will be the first to tell you I thought the Texans would control the AFC South, and the Colts would take a step back in Andrew Luck's second season under center. This team took on such a massive overhaul I thought they would regress. Obviously, I was wrong on both counts. The Texans have regressed while the Colts look like a potential Super Bowl contender for years to come.
So we have the Colts in off a total, beat down at home. Losing is one thing. When you have the Rams, who are on a 3 game losing streak and take it to you, it is time to look in the mirror. Now, I had the Rams. Could have been a little let-down spot as the Colts just beat the Texans and had another division on deck. I get it. But now is the time for this team to get back on track. The loss of Reggie Wayne is a big deal. He is one of the elder statesman of the locker room. Luck, as good as he is, is still a youngster. Don't forget, Indy was trailing 21-3 in the first half of the Houston game. They were down 28-0 last week at home. They can ill afford another bad half of football like that.
The Titans are a physical bunch. They are going to want to pound RB Chris Johnson all day long. He had only 30 yards last week on 12 carries vs the Jags. I think the Jags have a better run defense than the Colts though. Tennessee will look to Ryan Fitzpatrick to get them back into the division hunt. Sitting at 0-2, they are pretty much done if they hit 0-3 as the Colts would be 3-0. This guy is not terrible. He had a couple good years as the starter in Buffalo. It is easy to say, 'Hey, he lost both starts already this year.' Those games were vs Seattle and Kansas City. Not exactly league doormats. Now he gets the Colts. I wouldn't put Indy in those teams defensive level though. Fitzpatrick is a veteran presence, and has a couple decent wide-outs to help him stretch things out.
A pair of trends to make you think that the Titans are the play here. First, the home team is 5-2 ATS last 7 in the series. And #2, Indy is 2-5 ATS last 7 trips to Tennessee.
But then reality sets in. The simple fact is that Andrew Luck has yet to lose 2 games in a row. The Titans 1-3-1 ATS last 5 at home and a miserable 2-8-1 ATS last 11 vs AFC South opponents. How about 3-10-1 ATS last 14 vs teams with winning records?
The Colts ride in 6-1 ATS last 7 vs the AFC South and 9-2 ATS last 11 vs teams with losing records. They get it. They take care of business when the have to. The Colts have covered 7 in a row after a SU loss. The way the Titans have turned the ball over lately (4 last week, 13 last 5) I will go with the small road favorite.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -2.5
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