jimmythegreek Posts:10886 Followers:378
On 11/10/2013 02:51 AM in NFL

NFL GREEK INSIDER WEEK 10

Seattle -3 over Atlanta (bought half):
While the last 2 weeks for the NFC's best team the Seattle Seahawks (8-1) have looked nothing convincingly close to dominating, it's more than an understatement that head coach Pete Carroll have been fortunate enough to escape with narrow comeback victories. After tearing through lesser competition while showing their dominance, it took a final goal line stand on MNF in St. Louis followed by a 21 point deficit scare at home to Tampa Bay to keep the best conference record intact.

While it's inevitable the Seahawks would love nothing more than a complete effort and result against lowly Atlanta (2-6), Seattle may perhaps be looking over their shoulder a little bit as San Francisco is just 1.5 games back with a contest at hand. The Seahawks return to the Georgia Dome on Sunday looking to gain a measure of revenge and capitalize on Ryan's struggles while seriously damaging what's left of the Falcons' playoff hopes. Last season Marshawn Lynch scored with 31 seconds left, but Matt Ryan helped Atlanta get in position for Matt Bryant's 49-yard field goal with 8 seconds left to win 30-28 in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks had put together their own comeback, erasing a 20-point, second-half deficit, but they're looking for a much more complete performance this time as we enter the second half of regular season play.

Russell Wilson (144/231 1546 15 TD 6 INT) has displayed toughness by absorbing sacks and shots the past few weeks but still finds a way to finish what he started. In the Week 7 win against the Cardinals in Arizona, Wilson lost two fumbles while being sacked three times. The following week against the Rams in St. Louis, he was sacked a career-high seven times. In Sunday’s overtime win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Wilson was not sacked, but he absorbed some after-the-throw or just-as-he-was-throwing shots that left him sore after the game.

Fortunately for Wilson, Lynch (167-726 4.3 6 TD) has looked at times near flawless bursting through the seams behind a line that looks to wear opposing defenses down while creating space between the line of scrimmage. The star back ran for a season-high 125 yards on 21 carries (5.0) last week, but 44 came on six rushes during a 51-yard drive that set up the winning field goal in a 27-24 overtime win over the Bucs. Wilson is especially dangerous calling his own number (67-375 5.6 1 TD) but must be more in sync holding onto the ball as evident by his 8 fumbles which he has surrendered 5.

As Sidney Rice recovers from a season ending torn ACL, the bulk of the throws have gone to team leading receiver Golden Tate (35-468 3 TD). Tate caught 3 passes for 93 yards in week 9 but was held without a reception until midway through the third quarter. Fortunately Doug Baldwin (29-447 2 TD) had a stronger showing (6-75) and while Lynch (19-197 1 TD) is a shorter option in the flat Wilson has options mixing it up in the play calling. That does not bode well for the Falcons defense which ranks 29th overall against the pass and just 17th in opposing rushing.

Seattle's defense ranks second giving up only 296 yards allowed per game. and allows only 1180 passing yards while tied with Denver for the most interceptions at 13. Matt Ryan (225/332 2442 15 TD 10 INT) has been anything but ice so far this season. Still, much of Atlanta's success rests on Ryan, who has five touchdowns, no interceptions and a 129.3 passer rating in the team's victories. He has 10 scores, 10 picks and an 81.9 rating in the defeats. With Julio Jones sidelined for the season due to foot surgery, longtime vet and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez (44-476 4 TD) leads the dirty birds in catches. Harry Douglas (38-571 1 TD) has emerged as Ryan's favorite target, however chances could be limited given Seattle boasts one of the best secondaries in the league. Add to the fact that the Falcons running game or lack there-of has rushed for only 515 yards all season. Steven Jackson (38-140 3.7) has missed 4 games this season with a hamstring injury and has not found the end zone despite gaining 57 yards on 13 carries (4.4) against Carolina in week 9.

While Seattle has only looked like a shell of themselves over the last 2 weeks Atlanta has roughly nothing much else but pride to play for. That could be dangerous with Seattle only looking to improve on the league's best record, but the wheels have fallen off in Atlanta losing their last 3. The Falcons are likely to be down early and forced to throw against an intimidating secondary, which will come away making plenty of plays setting up shop for the Seattle methodical but efficient offense.

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michaeme960 Posts:25 Followers:2
11/10/2013 03:13 AM

Like it alot. I like the 4 and a clip. Marty Ice def will score as they are in desperation mode.

jimmythegreek Posts:10886 Followers:378
11/10/2013 09:41 AM

Denver -7 over San Diego:
Denver (7-1) is averaging an NFL-best 42.9 points and is on pace to shatter the NFL record of 589 points. Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning (237/333 2919 29 TD 6 INT) is also putting up eye-popping numbers en route to breaking seasonal records like Drew Brees' 5476 passing yards and Tom Brady's 50 TD passes. However with bigger fish to fry, Denver looks to keep rolling against San Diego (4-4) with defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio at the helm replacing John Fox who is recovering from heart surgery.

Fox was hospitalized last Saturday after feeling light-headed while playing golf during the Broncos' bye week. Two days later, he had his aortic valve replaced, an open-chest procedure which will likely cause him to miss several weeks. Manning has had the luxury of spreading out the wealth to an extremely balanced receiving core led by Demaryius Thomas (48-685 6 TD), Eric Decker (46-669 3 TD) Wes Welker (50-555 9 TD), and Julius Thomas (39-451 8 TD). Knowshown Moreno (108-456 4.2 8 TD) has been efficient when cashing in on opportunities when Denver is deep in the red zone. The Broncos will look to take advantage of San Diego in the ground game given last week's vulnerable performance against Washington giving up 4 scores. Moreno (29-287 1 TD)is also versatile as a short 5th option for Manning in the flat or screen.

The Chargers could not capitalize on 3 chances late in the 4th quarter on the Redskins 1 yard line and had to settle for a game-tying field goal. They would never see the ball again in OT because Washington scored a game clinching TD sending the bolts back down to .500. Philip Rivers (213/295 2473 17 TD 7 INT) is on pace to put up personal best numbers, and will likely be in a shootout situation hoping to go toe to toe carving through Denver's vulnerable secondary. Antonio Gates (48-550 2 TD) continues to show he's as dangerous as he was back in his prime doing what he does best in his 12th season. Keenan Allen (34-527 3 TD) has gone over 100 receiving yards in 3 of the last 4 games. Danny Woodhead (49-391 3 TD) leads the Chargers in receptions and has been used as more of a shirt yardage option in the running game (53-193 3.6 1 TD). Ryan Matthews (117-480 4.1 1 TD) faces a challenge against the Broncos who defend the run worlds better than they do the pass. That could leave San Diego one-dimensional if they are in position to pull off the upset. Matthews was held to just 34 yards on 7 carries (4.9) and the bolts threw the ball nearly 3 times more in week 9 (46) as choosing the ground game (16).

Coming off the bye week Denver will look to keep pace with idle Kansas City in the AFC West before these two prepare for a collision course next week. Both pass defenses will be tested by two outstanding quarterbacks, however the outcome could be decided with Denver who can at least run the football and has more versatility at receiver for Manning to break down. This could be a do or die situation for the Chargers, who need a win to stay in the wildcard race.


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jimmythegreek Posts:10886 Followers:378
11/10/2013 10:16 AM

Indianapolis -9 over St. Louis:
Indianapolis (6-2) trailed by 18 late in the third quarter in Houston last Sunday before Andrew Luck (154/264 1845 13 TD 3 INT) threw three touchdowns to T.Y. Hilton (34-533 5 TD) over the final 15:05. As Luck would have it, it was his 10th game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime in his brief career and 3rd this season. The 27-24 win against the terrible Texans kept the Colts 2 games ahead of Tennessee in the AFC South, and and helped them maintain their momentum after sending Denver to its first loss several weeks back. Houston this morning also learned that Arian Foster will be lost for the season due to back surgery.

With a career-high 7 catches for 121 yards, Hilton also perhaps showed that he could step up in the absence of star receiver Reggie Wayne, who's out for the season after tearing his right ACL in the 39-33 win over the Broncos. Despite completing just 18/40 passes last week Luck continues to execute well under pressure with one of the league's quicker 3 step drops and deliveries evident in comeback situations. Colby Fleener (25-299 3 TD) needs just two catches to set a new career high after hauling in 26 passes as a rookie in 2012. Luck could be in for another big day as Trent Richardson (83-248 3.0 2 TD) has struggled while playing through an ankle ailment. That could likely mean more touches for Donald Brown (39-244 6.3 1 TD) despite seeing action in the backup role. The Rams Defense has been passed on all season, ranking 28th in the NFL. If there's a game to open up Luck, Indy will probably look no further in this one.

St. Louis (3-6) has lost 3 straight despite showing valiant efforts against Seattle and Tennessee over the past few weeks. With Sam Bradford (159/262 1687 14 TD 4 INT) out fo the season with a torn ACL, the Rams have turned to Kellen Clemens (37/70 387 1 TD 2 INT) who has been rusty after not seeing much action over the past several years mired in various backup roles. One of the achilles heels for St. Louis is their offensive line which has forced Clemens to hurry his throws. Now that Roger Saffold has returned the Rams have elected to employ an offensive line platoon, a system that has paid dividends, particularly in the running game. Zac Stacy (103-475 4.6 2 TD) has been nursing an ankle injury but fully participated in practice on Friday. St. Louis does have balance in the receiving core led by Jared Cook (32-411 3 TD) and Austin Pettis (28-297 4 TD), but also take care of the ball. They are 7th in the league in fewest turnovers committed. Because Indy does not defend the run very well, that could take pressure off of Clemens making mistakes early that could come back to haunt him later.

The front seven of St. Louis need to keep putting pressure on Luck with hopes of making him uncomfortable. This will help relieve the Rams struggling secondary. However, Rams receivers have also failed to be on the same page with Clemens running alternate routes and dropping too many passes when given the opportunity. The Colts have way too many weapons starting with Hilton and are one of the better comeback teams in the league. Luck will set the tone early and Indy should have no trouble rolling to their 3rd straight.


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jimmythegreek Posts:10886 Followers:378
11/10/2013 10:43 AM

Buffalo/Pittsburgh over 43:
EJ Manuel (85/150 985 5 TD 3 INT) returns for Buffalo (3-6) in week 10 after suffering a knee injury forcing him to miss a month. Buffalo will look to bounce back from a 23-13 loss to unbeaten Kansas City that saw the Bills outgain the unbeaten Chiefs 470-210. KC however scored twice on defense as third stringer Jeff Tuel was picked off by Sean Smith, who returned it 100 yards for a touchdown that tied the game in the third quarter. Tamba Hali then returned receiver T.J. Graham's fumble 11 yards for a score to give the Chiefs a 20-13 lead early in the fourth.

With Manuel at the helm the Bills will likely feel more comfortable with the rookie under center. The Bills have balance in the receiving core led by Steve Johnson (38-423 3 TD) and Scott Chandler (32-367 2 TD) but need to step up especially when in the red zone. Robert Woods (26-349 2 TD) has been listed as doubtful after suffering an ankle injury last week. Fred Jackson (117-502 4.3 6 TD) continues to split touches with CJ Spiller (102-478 4.7 1 TD) as Buffalo's offense continues to flourish in the ground game. Spiller had 116 yards on 12 carries (9.7) last week while Jackson added 77 on 16 (4.8). It was the Bills’ best day on the ground to date in a game where they needed it the most evident to being down to Tuel.

The nightmare season continues for Pittsburgh (2-6) whose defense is no longer the stout it once was. Tomlin is not opposed to making lineup changes, and already benched receiver Antonio Brown (61-701 3 TD) for a series last week after a blown assignment led to a pick. The Steelers did sign second-year cornerback DeMarcus Van Dyke this week, but more as insurance if Ike Taylor is unable to play because of a concussion suffered last Sunday. Given the circumstances, Ben Roethlisberger (200/308 2330 12 TD 9 INT) has focused to stay upbeat despite the inconsistency. Emmanuel Sanders (37-494 2 TD) has emerged as a bigger part of the team's plans in recent games. Jerricho Cotchery (29-424 5 TD) has also been a spark off the bench and scored 3 TD in the week 9 loss to New England. The disadvantage for Big Ben is that there's no protection or efficiency with the seldom used running game as Le'Veon Bell (80-282 3.5 3 TD) has been the featured back.

Pittsburgh's offense has been massively improved since the bye, but their aging defense seems to be heading in the opposite direction. Any time you allow 55 points, even to the Patriots, who can tear up anyone when they’re right, it’s a bad sign. Manuel is going to be better long-term most likely and it’s good to get him playing time, but, as for the short term, all you can say for sure is that he’ll be better than Jeff Tuel. The Bills have nothing to lose and everything to gain in the respectability category rallying around Manuel and are a better team than their record indicates.

Best of luck to all in week 10
YTD 22-14 .611

For the latest sports news, capper picks and tracker results, turn to JTG, the leader in BTB information

  • All Time Record: 12484-12817-470
  • Last 7 Days Record: 63-71-1
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