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Pfile Nickname coleryan
  • Posts:11949
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11/10/2013 10:32 AM
Philly: 7th best Net Yards Per Play in NFL

First game when not resting multiple starters
that Packers are not at least a FG favorite at home since 2009
(+3 on 11/15/2009 hosting Cowboys)
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
  • Posts:11949
  • Followers:18
11/10/2013 10:32 AM
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+4, 45)

Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch is excelling after racking up a season-high 125 yards against Tampa Bay to move up to second in the NFL with 726 rushing yards. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of the past five games and is also doing damage with his feet (375 rushing yards). Cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas are tied for the NFL lead with four interceptions.

Standout receiver Roddy White (hamstring, ankle) could be back after a three-game absence to help alleviate Ryan’s troubles. White has just 14 receptions for 129 yards in an injury-prone campaign after six consecutive seasons of more than 80 catches and 1,200 yards. Atlanta could use some help from a defense that has allowed at least 23 points in each game.

LINE: Seattle opened as a 5.5-point fave and is now -4. The total opened 44 and is up to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-6.0) + Atlanta (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7
TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
* Falcons are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous outing.
* Under is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 games in November.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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11/10/2013 10:32 AM
Line Moves

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears - Open: +1, Move: Pick

Another player set to make a return is Bears QB Jay Cutler. News of such an upgrade had bettors backing the Bears, but injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball have them treading lightly.

"The line has bounced back and forth from small-fave Detroit to small-fave Chicago, but it should end up as a Pick or slight Bears fave," says Black. "Action likes the Bears at a 2-to-1 clip."

Black also confirms that bettors like the Over in this matchup. The total opened 52 and has been bet up to 52.5.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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11/10/2013 10:32 AM
- Nick Foles has not been intercepted in 118 attempts this season and the Packers have only picked off QBs five times through eight games.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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11/10/2013 10:34 AM

Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts minus-9.5
Public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Colts


Public perception: Action is pretty much split on this game (some bet-tracking sites have more tickets coming in on the Rams), mostly due to the line being so high, though it was higher on the LVH advance line a week and a half ago at Colts minus-12.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps have long loved backing St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher (formerly with Tennessee) as an underdog, and this looks like another case of that. Even though the Rams failed to cover against the Titans last Sunday, more people remember their cover in the previous Monday night game against the Seahawks. They tend to get up for facing elite competition (like last year against San Francisco).

Tuley's Take: I would normally love to back a big 'dog like this, especially one that's been devoted to running the ball like the Rams with Zac Stacy since Sam Bradford went down. However, I fear this is looking like a public underdog, which I prefer to avoid when I'm not fully confident in the play.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Rams).
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