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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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11/10/2013 10:16 AM

Matchup: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Spread: Pick 'em
Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Lions


Public perception: The public tends to prefer high-flying offenses, and bettors remember Calvin Johnson's performance against the Cowboys and how Matthew Stafford rallied them to victory. However, some more support came on the Bears with Thursday's announcement that Jay Cutler is expected to return.

Wiseguys' view: This line was as high as Lions minus-2.5, and the sharps snapped up any points as the rumors increased on Cutler's early return from his groin injury.

Tuley's Take: Wait, Tuley might have two favorites? Could be. As of this writing, the consensus out there is still pick 'em with the MGM books in Vegas holding the line at Detroit minus-1. But I do feel the Bears are the right side coming off their win over the Packers (though obviously the injury to Rodgers helped). It should be a shootout like the first meeting, but with the Bears turning the tables at home.

The pick: Bears.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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11/10/2013 10:18 AM
- Jay Cutler returns under center for the Bears since leaving in Week 7 with a groin injury. They average 28.6 points per game with Cutler in the lineup and have beaten the Lions five straight times at Soldier Field.
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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11/10/2013 10:19 AM
St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 44)

The Colts posted their second consecutive victory in stirring fashion, overcoming an 18-point third-quarter deficit to post a 27-24 triumph over Houston last week. T.Y. Hilton made his presence known with veteran wideout Reggie Wayne sidelined with a torn ACL by reeling in a career-best seven catches for 121 yards and franchise-tying three receiving touchdowns against the Texans.

Indianapolis leads the AFC South by two games over Tennessee, which handed St. Louis its third straight loss last week and faces the Colts on Thursday. With quarterback Sam Bradford's season also felled by a torn ACL, the Rams have shifted their focus toward Zac Stacy. The rookie followed up his 134-yard performance in a 14-9 loss to Seattle on Oct. 28 by rushing for his first two career touchdowns to highlight his 27-carry, 127-yard effort versus the Titans.

LINE: Indy opened -10.5 and is now -10. The total opened at 43 and is up to 44.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+6.0) + Indianapolis (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -13
TRENDS:

* Rams are 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
* Colts are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-3 in St. Louis' last 10 games following an SU loss.

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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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11/10/2013 10:19 AM
The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-11.40 ppg) since Sep 17, 2006 on artificial turf after playing at home
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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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11/10/2013 10:22 AM
NFL BLITZ BIG 5 PICKS

Let's get started with a big week in the NFL...

1) Bills +3.5

Bills get EJ Manuel back and they will be able to run the rock against the Steelers. Big Ben unhappy and it won't get any better when they lose outright..

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Pfile Nickname coleryan
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11/10/2013 10:23 AM

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans minus-12.5
Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Titans


Public perception: The Titans are among the surprise teams of the league this season -- 4-4 and in the midst of the playoff race, as well as one of the best bets with a 5-2-1 record ATS as reported in our midseason look at the NFL ATS standings -- but the support on them this week is at least as much about people not being willing to back the Jaguars (tied for a league-worst 1-7 ATS mark).

Wiseguys' view: Except for sharps that will continue to bet the Jaguars because of the "value" being double-digit underdogs, most wiseguys will stay away from this game.

Tuley's Take: I'm breaking myself of the Jaguars habit, at least until I feel I'm getting enough points. While double-digit 'dogs are 11-8 ATS (57.9 percent) this season, the Jags are 1-3 in that role. Also, I felt Justin Blackmon gave their offense the chance to be competitive, but he's suspended again and I don't like their chances for success as much anymore.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Jaguars on principle).
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