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dietz
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Breeders Cup Analysis and picks

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On 10/30/2013 03:03 PM in General
Well we are only 2 days away from the start of the Breeders Cup races. I posted earlier about some things to look for on the day. This is a great day for exotic wagers such as triples, exactas, doubles and especially pick 3's and 4's. $1 wagers can be turned into thousands. It is worth taking a chance on them. Do not be shy.


I have put at least 9-12 hours of research into these 2 upcoming days just trying to find an angle to use on horses. Some of the races are extremely competetive and is almost impossible to determine a winner. Some are clear cut which could help in the PICK 4 or PICK 6 wagers.

These are my thoughts on the races, if you have your own system I always say follow it. Nothing worse than abandoning your own system or theory and going with someone elses, then having yours win. Kick yourself in the ass all day for it.


Fridays races - MARATHON
This is a good race to wager on. 10 horses with the morning line favorite at 7-2 odds in EVER RIDER.
At a 1 3/4 miles this is race of stamina.
INDIANA JONES has run 1 1/2 miles twice coming in second both times.Has a consistent buyer of 113,113, 109, 116.
COMMANDER is a front runner who held lead at 1 3/8, 1 1/16 (2x) and 1 1/8 for 4 wins, but has never raced 1 3/4 or even 1 1/2.
Good betting race odds wise.
exacta box - 3-4-6
Try triples as well. I think COMMANDER front runs, holds on for 3rd in the end.
LONG SHOT - LONDON BRIDGE. (watch the odds on this horse, see if they drop closer to post time)


JUVENILE TURF

1 mile race on the turf course.
13 horses in the race which should make pay outs pretty darn good.
This is a VERY tough race to figure out and could produce a huge pay out. Many of these horses ran at Saratoga this past summer.
Morning line favorite it BOBBY'S KITTEN at 5-2

POKER PLAYER picks up Channing Hill for the turf ride and this horse can close like a freight train.
BOBBY's KITTEN has a 2 race win streak going and an improving buyers figure after every race. 74, 87 to 104. Only concern is, does the hourse bounce off the 104 buyer. Chad Brown has been a great money maker as turf trainer and his man Costellano is riding.
BASHART has 2 wins and place past 3 races, losing to POKER PLAYER last time out.. Not sure this is the same class as BOBBY's KITTEN.
OUTSTRIP has never finished out of the money on the turf and has raced in graded stakes races. European horses tend to do well on the turf at breeders cup. Mike Smith rides which a plus.
BOX 11-5-4

LONG SHOT- AOTEAROA - Cory Nakatani is a good turf rider. Won last time out with a 90 buyer.


DIRT MILE

1 Mile on the main track
13 horses again which will make pay outs decent.
This is a great handicappers race. Lowest odds at 3-1.
Morning line favorite VERRAZANO at 3-1

VERRAZANO - Kentucky Derby favorite who did nothing is hard to wager on. He crushed his two races at Monmouth Park, but that track is speed favorite. You cannot close on that course. He has not performed well when getting dirt in the face and there are other horses here who will break out in front of him. I am going against him for sure.
BROADWAY EMPIRE - 3 race win streak and ran 1 1/8 in 1:49. Anything close to that again and the race is his. To put that into perspective VERRAZONO ran 1 1/8 at Monmouth in 1:50 and change and won by 9 3/4 lengths.
PANTS ON FIRE - Horse has been getting better and better each race. Buyer figures go from100, 108, 113, 114. How much more can he improve? Paco Lopez flies in from Jersey to ride his only mount of the day.
BRUJO DE OLLEROS - Finished a close 2nd behind GRAYDAR who only won 6 races in a row and is considered one of the best horses in the country. .
BOX - 11-4-6

LONGSHOT - BROADWAY EMPIRE



JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 mile on the turf course
14 horses entered. Another chance for huge pay outs. hardest race of all races to handicap. All these horses are babies. So hard to tell what they will do.
Morning line favorite - MY CONQUESTADORY at 9-2

This race should be the Chad Brown stakes as he enters 4 horses, 2 of which belong to the Ramsey Family who set the track record at Saratoga for owner wins. The name almost all their horse with the name "kitten " in the title.

TESTA ROSSI - 4 race win streak going. Only problem is, non of them are major stakes.
VORDA - 5 starts, 4 wins and place. Last race was a 112 buyer figure and also has 2 grade 1 wins. Never ran a mile though.
CLENOR- 3 race win streak, A grade 1 win over the SA turf already.
GRANNY'S KITTEN - Chad Brown and Costellano duo for the Ramsey family. 2 wins and second, but lost to many of these last time out.
KITTEN KABOODLE - Chad Brown/Johhny V for the Ramsey family here. Won last time out at Keenland.
MY CONQUESTADORY - Buyer figures are low compared to others in here. I think will be beaten favorite.
DANCING HOUSE - picks up Mike Smith for Kiaren MCLAUGHLIN. Buyer figures of 92, 94. I think the jockey switch here makes all the difference.

BOX 9-10-13

LONG SHOT - DANCING HOUSE
TOUGHEST RACE OF ALL THE RACES for BOTH DAYS!!


[B]DISTAFF[/B]
1 1/8 miles on main track
6 horses in the race.
Morning line favorite ROYAL DELTA at 8/5

By far the best race of both days. Top 3 horses are just awesome.

ROYAL DELTA - Class of the field. Lost to PRINCESS OF SYLMAR last time out, but she is a great horse.
PRINCESS OF SYLMAR - monster closer. This horse made up 26 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks back in May. Has won 8 of 9 races coming in 2nd the one race she did not win.
BEHOLDER - Ran an amazing race last time out on the same track they are running today. Hand ridden by Stevens all the way around. Lost to PRINCESS OF SYLMAR by 1/2 length last time they faced. Gary Stevens learns from that mistake.

EXACTA BOX, TRIPLE BOX 4-5-6
I am hammering BEHOLDER to win especially if I can get 3-1 on her. This horse in my opinion is a monster. Stevens lost last time out by not riding her in the end. He has the lead at 1/4 pole this time, he whips her and does not take a chance on getting caught from behind again.


SATURDAYS CARDS


JUVENILE FILLIES

1 1/16 miles on main track
10 Horses entered for the race
Morning Line Favorite : SWEET REASON at 5/2

ARTEMIS AGROTERA - Buyer figures say it all two races and she is at 97 and then 103. Could fear the bounce which will play in my wager.
SWEET REASON - Lost to the ARTEMIS AGROTERA last time out, but has steady races under her.
UNTAPABLE- buyer figures of 85 then 98. Her 98 came when she was rank the first 1/4 mile. Have a feeling that if she calms down could improve and be a major factor.
SHE's A TIGER - never finished worse the 2nd in 5 starts. My concern is low buyer figures.

ALL/9 exacta here. or ALL/1
LONG SHOT - UNTAPABLE (not really a long shot at 8-1)


FILLY & MARE TURF DIVISION

1 1/4 Miles on Turf Course
10 horses entered in the race
Morning Line Favorite: DANK at 5-2

DANK - European invader with multiple grade 2 and grade 1 wins. Only out of money 2 times past 10 races.
LAUGHING -has consisten buyer figures and is 11 for 13 on turf and has a 4 race winnnig streak going including 2 grade 1's
KITTENS DUMPLINGS - Gets Rosario back on board who rode her to 3 consecutive wins. The Ramseys will get a win, think this is the horse. Huge closing horse so a good pace only helps and Rosario is excellent at timing the closing kick.
EMIOLLIENT - Bill Mott trained horse with Mike Smith aboard. This horse needs a strong pace upfront to win.
TIZ FLIRTATIOUS - Local horse who will come closing. Has won 3 of 4 races on the SA turf. Could be horse for the course: 6 starts at SA, 4 wins, place, show.

BOX - 10-7-2
or
ALL/10
LONG SHOT - KITTENS DUMPLING


FILLY & MARE SPRINT

7 Furlongs on Main Track
12 horses entered for race.
Morning Line Favorite: GROUPIE DOLL at 5/2

GROUPIE DOLL - great horse, past Breeders Cup Champion. I think her best races are behind her. Her last couple of races have shown she has lost the dominance. Can she win? Sure, but betting against favorite here.
DANCE CARD - this horse is a mile or more horse. Do not think 7 furlongs is the best scenerio. Great resume with 6 starts; 4 wins, 1 second, 1 third.
BOOK REVIEW - Has 1 win and 2 places at Santa Anita and consisten buyers.
JUDY THE BEAUTY - Buyers of 112, 115 last two races. Johnny V hops on for Wesley Ward. Very good late kick and could come running at the end.
STARSHIP TRUFFLES - Had excuses the past 2 races with traffic troubles. Changes riders to Gary Stevens who happens to have the most Breeders Cup wins of all jockeys. Wolfson the trainer is very good. Clean trip and you may get a winner.

BOX - 2-9-11
LONG SHOT - STARSHIP TRUFFLES


TURF SPRINT

6 1/2 Furlongs Down Hill Turf Course
14 Horse entered for race
Morning Line Favorite: MIZDIRECTION at 4-1

4-1 favorite should tell you the pay outs in this race may be the best of the entire card. Add 14 horse field and the winning increase even more. The Down Hill turf starting position makes it tough for anyone with a bad start. It starts on an angle and if you are post position 1 you could easily get caught up and in traffic. Any bad breaks and you are pretty much done. This race will done is 1:10.

UNBRIDLED NOTE - 3 for 4 on turf. Nakatani on board and has consistent over 100 buyer including a 114 on course back in Feb.
TIGHTEND TOUCHDOWN - FAST FAST horse, but can he last 6 1/2 furlongs. Seems to be a 5 1/2 furlong horse.
MIZDIRECTION - 12 of 13 on turf. won 8 of past 10. I would say last race was a bounce.
CAPO BASTONE- Unknown horse .has never run on the turf before. Why enter him to a turf sprint? Odd move by Pletcher.
RENEESGOTZIP - has a 109, 111 buyers. On home track and gets Maldonado on board who races at Santa Anita.

Wheel MISDIRECTION back and forth. ALL/ 12, 12/ALL

LONG SHOT - UNBRIDLED NOTE

JUVENILE

1 1/16 on Main Track
14 Horses entered for the race
Morning Line Favorite: HAVANA 5-2

Juvenile races are so tough to pick. It truly is a crap shoot.

HAVANA
- Pletcher/ Johnny V entry. 2 wins and last race produced a 107 buyer. Does he bounce? My only fear.
BOND HOLDER - Has a win over the track and experience with 5 races under the belt. No buyer higher than 88 though.
TAPIT RICH - this is a very interesting horse. Bob Baffert enters a horse off of one careet start. His first career start produced a 94 buyer figure and horse usually do better 2nd time out. If that is true, this horse will be a major factor if not a monster winner.
WE MISS ARTIE - Pletcher horse with Sarah and Ken Ramsey owners. Won last time out in a grade 1. Could be improving.

ALL/HAVANA wager.

LONG SHOT - TAPIT RICH


TURF

1 1/2 miles on outside turf course
12 Horses entered for the race.
Morning Line Favorite: THE FUGUE at 3-1

THE FUGUE - Horse can run for days. 10 of 12 on turf. Jockey flies in to ride with him from Europe.
POINT OF ENTRY - Solid horse, 11 of 12 wins on turf. 6 Grade 1 wins. Top horse in the field.
BIG BLUE KITTEN - 15/16 in money on turf. 2 grade 1 wins, 1 second. Chad Brown and Ramseys again. Good solid horse.
INDY POINT - Mandella trained horse. He only has a monster wins on Breeders Cup day. Several occassions he has had 4 winners on the Breedes Cup card. Has Stevens on board. Buyers of 111, 85, 111.

BOX - 3-7-9
or
POINT OF ENTRY/ ALL

LONG SHOT - BIG BLUE KITTEN


SPRINT


6 Furlongs
Main Track
12 Horses entered for the race.
Morning Line Favorite: PRIVATE ZONE at 3-1

PRIVATE ZONE - Ran 6 furlongs in 1:07 at Santa Anita. BLAZING!!!
FAST BULLET - Ran 6 furlongs in 1:08. Rosario hops back on board
[B]JUSTIN PHILLIP - Consisten buyers. Past 3 races were grade 1 races and he has win, place, show.
GENTLEMANS BET[/B] - 6 furlongs in 1:07 at Chuchill Downs. Last race got bumped at start and was out of it. Buyers have been 117, 118,119 before last race.

This race will be over fast.

BOX - 1-3-7
Triple box it too. 1-3-7

LONG SHOT - GENTLEMANS BET

MILE
1 mile on Turf Course
10 Horses Entered for the Race.
Morning Line Favorite: WISE DAN at 1-1

WISE DAN - won 9 of 10, coming in second last race. Best horse of entire card. Class, class, class.
SILVER MAX- only horse in 10 tries to beat WISE DAN, but that was on a race taken off turf.
ZA APPROVAL - Clement entry with Rosario on board. Ran 2nd to WISE DAN twice.
SILENTO - 5 Races over the Santa Anita turf. Came in money all 5 times. Another Mandella trained horse who picks up Bejarano on board.

BET - WISE DAN/ all exacta
WISE DAN/ZA APPROVAL/ALL triple

WISE DAN is the LOCK OF THE DAY. 1-1 odds. big deal
Key WISE DAN in any pick 3, 4 or pick 6.



CLASSIC


1 1/4 Miles on Main Track
12 Horses Entered for the Race
Morning Line Favorite: GAME ON DUDE at 8-5

GAME ON DUDE - 6 consecutive wins, 3 grade 1, 2 grade 2, grade 3. Buyers of 122, 120, 121 past 3 races. Primed and ready to go.
DECLARATION OF WAR - This trainer/owner combo produced the $110.00 winner last year. Coming in off a win in European Race.
PALICE MALICE- Solid horse. Stumbled in the Travers Stakes and never had a chance. Ran into a freak race by RON THE GREEK last time out. Picks up Johnny V to replace Mike Smith (interesting).
MORENO - Horse with no respect. Has come in second the past 2 races to WILLTAKECHARGE, 3rd to Palice Malice 3 back. Could be maturing at right time. Solid buyers at 110, 114, 111 past 3.
MUCHO MACHO MAN - Won on this track in September going 1 1/8. Can he go 1 1/4 against these. Huge Buyers of 119, 117 last two.
RON THE GREEK - Ran the race of his life last time out. Beat PALICE MALICE by almost 6 lengths. Had a 123 buyer. Past 2 times this horse had a 120 or higher he came back with a 107 and 104.
WILL TAKE CHARGE - MONSTER closer. I have liked this horse from the Kentucky Derby. HUGE horse at more than 18 hands. The hind legs on this horse are like Red Wood trees.Can he take on GAME ON DUDE is the question.

ALL/GAME ON DUDE exacta.
Triple - PALICE MALICE/ GAME ON DUDE/ WILL TAKE CHARGE and MORENO

SUPERFECTA: PALICE MALICE/GAME ON DUDE w/ PALICE MALICE/GAME ON DUDE w/ WILL TAKE CHARGE/MORENO w/ WILLTAKECHARGE. MORENO. $1 wager is $8.



Once again, these are my thoughts. I only put triples and supers in there for myself. I do like the exactas though for those who do follow.

It is day to make money, with the exception of a few races. Do not be afraid to take chances and use any numbers.

I will also watch TVG's 1 hour special to see if they pick out anything that I may have over looked.

Good luck to all if you choose to follow.


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Pfile Nickname dietz
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11/02/2013 05:54 AM
Not a great day exacta or exotic wise but learned a lot about the track n horses today.

Beholder ran a great race. Kept us on the plus side for the day. Let's hope tomorrow brings some winners

Europeans on grass did very well and local horses who train and run on the Santa Anita course dominated .
Keep an eye out for that on Saturday.

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Pfile Nickname dietz
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11/02/2013 10:22 PM
Well, the big 2 days is over and boy did it play out. You won't and can't with every race but the bet thing about racing is you only need one race to get back to make profit. We hit race 11 with the 8 -10- all triple for 420
Hammered the 8 to win.

Best horse you will ever see I out life time. Never got the triple crown coverage or any publicity but he won 11 of 12 and only came in second on an off track in slop. Hid jockey wAs off this race after taking a spill earlier in the day and his replacement just rides him to win in a million dollar race. Class, class, class horse.

Had this race dead on for a super, but did not box it. So frustrating .

Good home work based on Fridays races. Good day over all.

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