endymion Posts:385 Followers:17
On 10/30/2013 09:47 AM in MLB

MLB - Series Win

Anyone else like St Louis at +350 with Wacha/Kelly against Lackey/Peavy? It's 2 road games but they have the pitching advantage so if both games are 50-50 there's some additional value in the parlay (plus, if they win game 6, Red Sox will be in a worse psychological position before game 7)?

finance Posts:8356 Followers:223
10/30/2013 10:15 AM

I like your thinking, but I'm just not sure I see them losing both of these at home....that number's so big I was trying to figure a way to scalp it or hedge it, but it's set just right to keep that from being profitable (assuming game 7 will be around -115 to -120 for Boston)....will be interesting to see if Peavy has anything in his tank at all if it gets to game 7....

  • All Time Record: 1931-1907-51
  • Last 7 Days Record: 16-39-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 49-67-1
endymion Posts:385 Followers:17
10/30/2013 10:32 AM

No point hedging it, you can just play game 6 @ +112 if you're thinking of hedging. It might only make sense to hedge it live if St Louis takes an early lead in game 7 IMO but it's still a losing proposition long term to hedge if there is value in the initial bet. It reduces the variance but +350 isn't such a long shot to make it worth it to buy the insurance.

finance Posts:8356 Followers:223
10/30/2013 10:45 AM

Totally agree.....there's certainly value there if the premise is both games are 50-50....personally I like Waca as the dog enough to probably just take St. Louis tonight....don't know that I have that much faith in Kelly to blow tonight's bet with a series play....

Good Luck however you do it!

  • All Time Record: 1931-1907-51
  • Last 7 Days Record: 16-39-0
  • Last 30 Days Record: 49-67-1
spidsparks Posts:658 Followers:2
10/30/2013 06:48 PM

Cards +109. Good luck StL!

enzymex Posts:1732 Followers:61
10/31/2013 09:51 AM

I was on St. Louis too. Too bad series ended already. Congrats to boston backers and fans. I thought St. Louis would likely win the series, but Boston had better clutch hitting and pitching this series.

BTW, Nice job winning the MLB contests on the forum Endymion!

  • 10/31/2013 10:24 AM

    Thanks, you did well too - very impressive run after Oct 10th :)