cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/07/2013 06:32 PM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Thursday's games

Baylor is favored over Oklahoma for first time since 1998; underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in last 12 meetings. Bears' 45-38 (+15) win here in '11 was Baylor's only win in last 16 games with Oklahoma, but these Bears have won/covered all four I-A home games by average score of 71-17. Only team to hold Baylor under 70 points in Waco this year is I-AA Wofford, which lost here 69-3. Oklahoma won its only two road games at Kansas, Notre Dame; their only loss this year was 36-20 (-12) to Texas at State Fair in Dallas. Over last 11 years, Sooners are 5-2 as road underdogs.

UL-Lafayette beat Troy 37-24/31-17 last two years, after going 1-6 in previous seven series games; Trojans are 3-2 at ULL-- losing side scored 24+ points in six of last eight series games. ULL won its last six games since opening with money grab losses at Arkansas/K-State; Cajuns won 48-24/49-35 in two I-A home games (1-1 HF); they're 6-9-1 in last 16 games as a home favorite. Troy won its last two road games; they're 2-1 as underdogs this year, losing road games by 7 at Arkansas State/Duke and 62-7 at Miss State. Underdogs covered last three series games.

Oregon won nine of last eleven games with Stanford; favorites are 8-3 vs spread in those games. Ducks won four of last five visits to The Farm, with three of four wins by 23+ points. Oregon is 7-1 vs spread this year, 3-0 as road favorite, winnign away games by average score of 54-17, in wins by 49-41-21 points. Pac-12 home underdogs are 2-9 vs spread this season. Stanford is 2-0-1 in last three games as an underdog; they've lost one game this year, 27-21 (-7.5) at Utah, when Cardinal had only one TD on offense in first three quarters (also had KO return for TD).


Friday's game

Underdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine Louisville-UConn games, as Cardinals split last four visits here, winning by 10-14 points. Huskies (+11) upset Louisville 23-20 LY, despite being outgained by 160 yards. Louisville is a bully team, winning last two road games by total of 64-10; their other road game was 27-13 (-14) win at rival Kentucky. 0-7 UConn is awful, giving up 103 points in last two games, but their three losses at home were only by 11-3-3 points, including 24-21 loss to Michigan. AAC home underdogs are 9-6 against the spread so far this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/08/2013 06:02 PM

Louisville at Connecticut

November 8, 2013


LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (7-1) at CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (0-7)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Louisville -28 & 49.5
Opening Line & Total: Cardinals -27.5 & 49.5

No. 20 Louisville should be able to earn an easy SU win Friday night when it travels to winless Connecticut.

Teddy Bridgewater and Louisville have just one loss this year, falling two games ago to 14.5-point underdog UCF by a score of 38-35. The Cardinals bounced back well though, with an easy 34-3 win against South Florida for their first ATS win in their past four contests. Overall, they are 4-4 ATS this year.

Then there’s UConn, which is not only 0-7 SU this season, but also 1-6 ATS. The Huskies have given up 103 points in their past two games and are 0-4 ATS in their past four contests, dropping them to 8-20 ATS over the past three seasons. However, don't forget last year when double-digit underdog UConn shocked the world with a triple-overtime upset of Louisville. The bad news is that the Huskies haven’t won a game since that dramatic conquest.

QB Teddy Bridgewater is a one-man highlight reel for Louisville, completing 74% of his passes with an incredible 23 TD and 2 INT. He’s averaging 10.5 yards per pass attempt. He was even pretty good in last year’s loss to UConn, completing 30-of-53 passes for 331 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT.

He has three receivers with more than 400 receiving yards with DeVante Parker being his favorite red-zone target, catching a team-high 7 TD in 2013. He caught both of Bridgewater’s touchdown passes last year against the Huskies.

In the backfield, Dominique Brown (75 carries, 484 yards, 4 TD) and Senorise Perry (88 carries, 455 yards, 5 TD) split the carries. They must play a bigger role than the Cardinals rushing game did last year, when the unit was limited to a pathetic 27 yards on 28 carries.

Louisville’s rushing defense has been fantastic this year, holding foes to 2.7 YPC, while the passing defense has been nearly as dominant, keeping opposing quarterbacks to a 51.3% completion rate.

There’s no getting around how ugly the UConn offense has been this year, and it hasn’t gotten better with Tim Boyle under center. Taking the majority of the snaps the past three games, he has completed just 42.7% of his passes while not scoring a TD and throwing five picks. The Huskies may look to Casey Cochran more under center, as he has been better in limited action.

The rushing game is no better, averaging 2.4 YPC on the season. Lyle McCombs is the bright spot of the group, averaging 4.7 YPC and scoring a team-high 4 TD on the ground.

Opposing rushers have gained a modest 4.1 YPC against UConn this year, but the passing defense has yielded a whopping 8.6 yards per pass attempt and 15.3 yards per completion, meaning Teddy Bridgewater could be in for a career day.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/08/2013 06:04 PM

Friday, November 8

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LOUISVILLE (7 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (0 - 7) - 11/8/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-1 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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AIR FORCE (2 - 7) at NEW MEXICO (2 - 6) - 11/8/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/08/2013 06:05 PM

Friday, November 8

8:30 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. CONNECTICUT
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville's last 5 games on the road
Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Connecticut is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
AIR FORCE vs. NEW MEXICO
Air Force is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Air Force is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games
New Mexico is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Air Force
New Mexico is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Air Force

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/08/2013 06:06 PM

Friday, November 8

Louisville at Connecticut, 8:30 ET
Louisville: 18-6 OVER in road games in November
Connecticut: 7-0 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses

Air Force at New Mexico, 9:00 ET
Air Force: 6-16 ATS in all games
New Mexico: 9-1 OVER in home games after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/08/2013 06:07 PM

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 8

Game 115-116: Louisville at Connecticut (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 97.999; Connecticut 72.737
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 25; 46
Vegas Line: Louisville by 28; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+28); Under

Game 117-118: Air Force at New Mexico (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 70.456; New Mexico 70.288
Dunkel Line: Even; 64
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 3; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+3); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/08/2013 06:08 PM

Friday's game

Underdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine Louisville-UConn games, as Cardinals split last four visits here, winning by 10-14 points. Huskies (+11) upset Louisville 23-20 LY, despite being outgained by 160 yards. Louisville is a bully team, winning last two road games by total of 64-10; their other road game was 27-13 (-14) win at rival Kentucky. 0-7 UConn is awful, giving up 103 points in last two games, but their three losses at home were only by 11-3-3 points, including 24-21 loss to Michigan. AAC home underdogs are 9-6 against the spread so far this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/08/2013 06:09 PM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Friday's games
Underdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine Louisville-UConn games, as Cardinals split last four visits here, winning by 10-14 points. Huskies (+11) upset Louisville 23-20 LY, despite being outgained by 160 yards. Louisville is a bully team, winning last two road games by total of 64-10; their other road game was 27-13 (-14) win at rival Kentucky. 0-7 UConn is awful, giving up 103 points in last two games, but their three losses at home were only by 11-3-3 points, including 24-21 loss to Michigan. AAC home underdogs are 9-6 against the spread so far this season.

Air Force won five in row, eight of last nine games vs New Mexico, with four of last five wins by 13+ points. Falcons won three of last four trips here, where favorites are 4-2 vs spread in last six series games. Air Force is on short week after beating rival Army, its first I-A win of the season; Falcons are 0-3 on road, losing by 22-3-18 points. New Mexico allowed 39.3 ppg in its last three games, but they've also scored 31+ points in four of last five games. Lobos are 1-3 at home this year, 1-1 as a favorite at home, with only win over New Mexico State. Mountain West home favorites are 3-13 vs spread so far this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/08/2013 06:09 PM

NCAAF

Friday, November 8

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Louisville at UConn: What bettors need to know
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Louisville Cardinals at Connecticut Huskies (27.5, 49)

A three-overtime loss to Connecticut served as the push that Louisville needed to close out the 2012 season on a high note. One conference change and less than a year later, a similar result seems unlikely when the 16th-ranked Cardinals hit the road Friday to meet the winless Huskies. In their final Big East clash, Connecticut held Louisville scoreless through three quarters and intercepted Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in the third overtime en route to a 23-20 victory.

The Huskies haven’t won since, but Louisville clinched a BCS berth the following week against Rutgers and defeated Florida in the Sugar Bowl – setting the stage for a strong start to their first season in the American Athletic Conference. While the Cardinals had a week off to savor their 34-3 trouncing of South Florida, Connecticut is looking for answers following a 62-17 loss to Central Florida on Oct. 26. The Huskies – off to their worst start since 1977 – have lost three of their last four games by at least 25 points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: UConn opened as a 27.5-point home dog. The total has held firm at 49.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in low-60s with wind blowing toward the SE endzone at 8 mph.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (7-1, 3-1 American Athletic Conference): In his first start of the season, Dominique Brown set career highs in rushing yards (125), catches (six) and receiving yards (61). Bridgewater turned in another efficient performance versus South Florida, going 25-of-29 to increase his completion percentage to an FBS-high 73.7 percent. The Cardinals limited the Bulls to three points and 38 yards rushing – the fifth time they have held an opponent to seven points or fewer and less than 100 yards rushing in the same game.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (0-7, 0-3): One of the few highlights from the Huskies’ loss to Central Florida was Casey Cochran’s 49-yard touchdown pass to Brian Lemelle – the first career scores for both freshmen. Tim Boyle, who replaced Chandler Whitmer as the starting quarterback three games ago, has yet to throw or run for a touchdown. Connecticut ranks second-to-last in the country in rushing yardage (537), as well as yards per carry (2.38) and has run for 91 yards or fewer in all but one game.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November.
* Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last eight games overall.
* Over is 6-2 in Huskies last eight games overall.
* Cardinals are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Louisville’s second-ranked scoring defense (10.6 points per game) also ranks second in the country against the run (80.5 yards) and third against the pass (164).

2. With a loss, Connecticut will match its worst start in school history.

3. The Cardinals’ offense has produced 67 more passing plays of 10 or more yards than the defense has surrendered (115-48).


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NCAAF

Friday, November 8

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Air Force at New Mexico: What bettors need to know
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Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos (-3, 59.5)

Football fans hoping for an aerial assault may want to avoid Friday night's Mountain West tilt between the Air Force Falcons and the host New Mexico Lobos. The teams combine for just over 200 passing yards per game, which may help to explain why both schools are still looking for their first conference victory of the season. The Lobos boast one of the top rush attacks in the nation, but will meet their match against a Falcons team that also relies heavily on the ground game.

Air Force comes in on a high after piling up 343 rushing yards and six touchdowns en route to a 42-28 win over the Army Black Knights. Anthony LaCoste was the catalyst - scampering for a career-high 263 yards and three scores - as he leads a robust ground attack that features eight players with at least 100 rushing yards. New Mexico fell 35-30 to San Diego State last time out, despite racking up 253 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU
LINE: The Lobos are installed as three-point favorites, with the total set at 59.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s under clear skies.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (2-7, 0-5 Mountain West): Never has the Air Force football team been less appropriately named - the Falcons are 11th in the country at 279.2 rushing yards per game, and have 24 touchdowns on the ground compared to just four through the air. LaCoste's 73-yard scoring run early in the first quarter extended Air Force's streak of consecutive games with at least one rushing score to 56, the longest active run in the nation. The Falcons come into Saturday's contest 55-55 all-time in Mountain West play.

ABOUT NEW MEXICO (2-6, 0-4): The Lobos are led by the more appropriately named Kasey Carrier, who has rumbled for 930 rushing yards and nine TDs on the season. Carrier opened the season on fire - scoring five times in the first four games - but has cooled of late, limited to 141 yards in back-to-back losses to Utah State and San Diego State. Fortunately, New Mexico has an assortment of other ground weapons at its disposal - including quarterback Cole Gautsche (577 yards, six touchdowns) and Crusoe Gongbay (337 yards, three TDs).

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games on grass.
* Lobos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in New Mexico's last seven games.
* The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25882 Followers:33
11/08/2013 06:13 PM

Friday, November 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 8:30 PM ET Louisville -27.5 500 POD # 3

Connecticut - Under 49 500 POD # 4

Air Force - 9:00 PM ET New Mexico -3 500 POD # 2

New Mexico - Over 61.5 500 POD # 1

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: