cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/06/2013 01:37 AM

College football odds: Week 11 opening line report

Offensive fireworks will come early in Week 11.

A pair of Thursday night games feature the two highest-scoring offenses in the land in each tilt.

The first of which is a huge Pac-12 affair between the Stanford Cardinal (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) and the unbeaten and explosive Oregon Ducks (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS).

The Ducks are second in the nation averaging 55.6 points per game and are yet to be tested. Lost amid the flurry of hype around the offense, is a very solid defensive unit that is seventh in points against at 16.9.

They are coming off a bye week and disposed of UCLA with relative ease 42-14 on Oct. 26.

The Cardinal are in the midst of a great season in their own right, with just one hiccup at Utah along the way.

They too are coming off a bye week after taming Sean Mannion and the Oregon State offense with a 20-12 victory on Oct. 26.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, knows that despite the high-octane offense, Oregon will be tested by a tough Cardinal defense.

"Stanford has the defense but can only hope to slow Oregon down here and there," Korner told Covers. "Our range was from Oregon -10.5 to -15. We had requests for this game last week and we put out Oregon -14. After looking at it again, we kept the same number."

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (-16)

The "other" Thursday matchup featuring a score-at-will offense is this Big 12 tilt in Waco, TX.

The Bears (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) boast the highest-scoring offense around, tallying an astronomical 63.9 points per game.

Not just another team coming off a bye week, but a team that put up a massive victory in their last effort. The Bears rocked the Kansas Jayhawks 59-14 on Oct. 26.

Save for a disappointing loss in the Red River Rivalry, the Sooners (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) have put together an excellent season. The Sooners haven't been kind to their backers of late, however, as they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games.

"When it comes to Baylor, I usually just go with the highest number. This time I settled for Baylor -16," says Korner. "As always, you're asking any team Baylor plays to pick up their scoring. Because Oklahoma can compete (and win straight up), we do have some respect for them."

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-6)

A tough loss for Wolverines (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) on the weekend as in-state rival Michigan State easily outplayed them en route to the 29-6 victory.

Nebraska (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) bounced back from a loss at Minnesota on Oct. 26 with a victory over Northwestern. The Huskers should count their blessings, however, as the win came as a result of a Hail Mary as the clock hit zeroes. It was the second-straight game which the Huskers failed to cover.

Korner and his team of oddsmakers were all on the same page for this bringing similar numbers to the table.

"We had a range from Michigan -5 to -7 and that made it easy to stick a -6 as our send out," confirms Korner. "This game could go either way and we don't suspect a lot of movement with this line from where it opens."

LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-14)

The top defense in the nation will be tested by one of the more potent offenses in the land in this batle of SEC heavyweights.

This will be a test for 'Bama (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) as a win here puts them on the cusp of an unbeaten season heading into the Bowl games. They have a pair of easy games (Mississippi State, Chattanooga) before closing the season at the Auburn Tigers.

LSU (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) would love to play spoiler for the Tide's unbeaten aspirations. At 40.2 points per game, the Tigers are 16th in the nation in scoring, but both of their defeats have come on the road this season.

Korner and his team all brought double-digit spreads to the table and settled on -14.

"We had Alabama -12, -14 and -16 so we put out -14, right in the middle," states Korner. "'Bama fans will think that's too low and LSU fans should drool with two TD's to start."

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/06/2013 01:53 AM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 11

Wednesday, November 6

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C MICHIGAN (3 - 5) at BALL ST (8 - 1) - 11/6/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 2-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 2-0 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/06/2013 01:54 AM

NCAAF

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Wednesday, November 6

8:00 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. BALL STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Michigan's last 5 games
Central Michigan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Ball State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Central Michigan

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/06/2013 01:54 AM

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 11

Wednesday, November 6

Central Michigan at Ball State, 8:00 ET
Central Michigan: 2-11 ATS as a road underdog
Ball State: 16-6 ATS in all games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/06/2013 06:59 PM

NCAAF

Wednesday, November 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Central Michigan - 8:00 PM ET Ball State -21 500 POD # 2

Ball State - Under 57.5 500 POD # 1

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/07/2013 06:23 PM

Thursday, November 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Troy - 7:30 PM ET Troy +13.5 500 POD # 5

UL Lafayette - Under 68 500 POD # 6

Oklahoma - 7:30 PM ET Baylor -17 500 POD # 2

Baylor - Over 73.5 500 POD # 3

Oregon - 9:00 PM ET Oregon -10 500 POD # 1

Stanford - Over 61.5 500 POD # 4

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/07/2013 06:30 PM

Where the action is: Public loves Ducks, sharps betting big home dog

Thursday night is a huge night for college football fans. Bettors are treated to two key conference clashes featuring Top 25 teams. The Oregon Ducks come to Palo Alto for a showdown with the Stanford Cardinal in the later of these two games.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this game and where the odds will end up come kickoff:

Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal – Open: +10, Move: +11.5, Move: +11

Oregon can pave its road to the BCS title game with a win in Palo Alto Thursday. The Cardinal appear to be the Ducks' lone competition in the Pac-12, but are still double-digit dogs at home. Early action played the road favorite, spiking this line at Oregon -11.5 before wiseguys bought back Stanford and trimmed the spread half a point to +11.

“So far, 75 percent of the action is on the Ducks and I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to 11.5, but at this point we like our position,” says Stewart.

As for the total in this Pac-12 standoff, books opened this number as low as 60 points and have watched the over/under climb to as high as 62. Stewart says for a game of this size, action on the total has been relatively quiet.

“We expected to see way more Over action than we've seen. We opened this total 62 and we've booked really good two-way action and we haven't moved our number all week,” he says. “Sharps might be waiting to see this total rise a bit more, but at this point we like our number and there's no reason to move so the sharps might not get involved with this total.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/07/2013 06:31 PM

Where the action is: Are sharps inflating OU-Baylor line to buy back Sooners?

Thursday night is a huge night for college football fans. Bettors are treated to two key conference clashes featuring Top 25 teams. The Oklahoma Sooners visit the Baylor Bears in Waco for a Big 12 bash in the first of these two marquee matchups.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this game and where the odds will end up come kickoff:

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears – Open: -13.5, Move: -15

Baylor has cruised through a soft schedule so far and meets its first true test in Oklahoma Thursday. Early action was on the home side, with sharps surprisingly grabbing Baylor and jacking up the spread as high as -15 at some markets.

CarbonSports.ag is currently sitting at BU -14.5, with good two-way action on this Big 12 battle. However, Stewart has a sneaking suspicion that the early action from wiseguys was meant to drive this line over the key number and that they will eventually buy back the Sooners before kickoff.

“I believe the early sharp action was made at -14 because they felt this line would close higher due to the public betting up Baylor like they have all week,” Stewart tells Covers. “So they lay the -14 and can either get off later in the week or keep their bet at a good number. At this point I have no clue, I just know we're booking this game dead even so far which is great for us.”

Stewart does say the book is a little scared when it comes to the total for Thursday’s game in Waco. The number opened as low as 72.5 at some markets and has climbed as high as 74.5 points, which is the current total CarbonSport.ag is dealing.

“Where we're seeing a ton of exposure is on the Over,” says Stewart. “So far 75 percent of the money is on the Over and we can't see much money being bet on this game Under as both teams love to spread the field and throw the ball.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/07/2013 06:31 PM

NCAAF

Thursday, November 7

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Oklahoma at Baylor: What bettors need to know
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Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (-14.5, 72.5)

Oklahoma looks to slow down Baylor’s record-setting offense and derail the Bears’ national title hopes Thursday in front of a sold-out crowd in Waco. The Big 12 showdown features the first real test for the fifth-ranked Bears, who lead the nation with averages of 63.9 points and 718.4 offensive yards per game. The eighth-ranked Sooners are 21-1 all-time against Baylor and have won two straight since losing 36-20 to Texas on Oct. 12.

The Bears are riding a school-record 11-game winning streak, but are beginning a daunting stretch that includes contests against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas to end the season. “We feel like this season is just getting started,” Baylor coach Art Briles said. “We are anxious to get into the grind time.” The Bears have been especially dominant at home, where they’ve outscored five opponents by a combined score of 353-72.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 50s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing NNE at 5 mph.

LINE: Baylor opened at -13.5 and has been bet up as high as -15. The total climbed from 72 to as high as 73.5 points.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (7-1, 4-1 Big 12, 4-4 ATS): The Sooners rank 10th in the country in total defense and ninth in pass defense, and forced three turnovers in a 38-30 victory over previously unbeaten Texas Tech on Oct. 26. Oklahoma will lean on its solid offensive line and a deep roster of running backs to control the clock against Baylor, but fullback Trey Millard will miss the game after suffering a season-ending knee injury against the Red Raiders. Quarterback Blake Bell has shown improvement over the past two games, and wide receiver Jalen Saunders is tied for the team lead with five touchdown receptions.

ABOUT BAYLOR (7-0, 4-0, 6-1 ATS): Quarterback Bryce Petty has thrown 18 touchdowns and one interception while completing 69.3 percent of his passes to lead the Bears, who posted 743 yards in total offense in a 59-14 win over Kansas before last week's open date. Running back Lache Seastrunk averages 9.1 yards per carry and the Bears are four rushing touchdowns away from breaking their single-season school record of 37 set in 2011. Linebacker Bryce Hager has a team-high 58 tackles to lead the defense, which ranks 11th in the country with 316 yards allowed per game.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings in Baylor.
* Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Oklahoma has won 40 consecutive games when leading at halftime.

2. Baylor has outscored the opposition 164-20 in the first quarter.

3. The Sooners are 78-1 under coach Bob Stoops when scoring at least 40 points, including 8-0 against Baylor.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27540 Followers:33
11/07/2013 06:32 PM

NCAAF

Thursday, November 7

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Oregon at Stanford: What bettors need to know
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Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal (+10, 61.5)

Oregon and Stanford are ranked in the top five of the latest BCS standings and the No. 2 Ducks can move closer to a possible national championship game appearance when they visit the No. 6 Cardinal on Thursday. Oregon is third in the BCS race and waging a tight battle with Florida State for the second spot while Stanford is sitting fifth and looking to elevate its position. The Cardinal defeated Oregon in overtime last season.

The Ducks have won each of their games by at least 21 points and a 42-14 trouncing of UCLA in their last contest was their lowest-scoring output of the campaign. Stanford hasn’t topped 24 points in any of its last three games, including a 27-21 loss to Utah that makes this contest a must-win affair per its national title hopes. The winner of this contest will likely win the Pac-12 North division and play in the conference title game. The Cardinal defense will be without standout defensive end Ben Gardner, who suffered a season-ending pectoral injury against Oregon State on Oct. 26.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 50s with clear skies and winds blowing WNW at 7 mph.

LINE: Oregon opened as low as -7.5 and has been bet up to as high as -10.5. The total opened at 60 and has jumped to 61.5.

ABOUT OREGON (8-0, 5-0 Pac-12, 7-1 ATS): Quarterback Marcus Mariota hasn’t been intercepted since last season’s loss to Stanford and is one of the frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy with 20 passing touchdowns and nine rushing scores. De’Anthony Thomas (7.1 average) is back in top form after missing three-plus games with an ankle injury and Byron Marshall (879 yards, 12 touchdowns) is having a superb season for an offense that ranks second nationally in scoring (55.6) and total offense (632.1 yards). The Ducks allow just 16.9 points per game – tied for seventh nationally – with cornerback Terrance Mitchell (four interceptions) and defensive end Tony Washington (7.5 sacks) both enjoying stellar campaigns.

ABOUT STANFORD (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12, 4-4 ATS): The Cardinal allow 19.4 points per game and will seek to keep the game relatively low scoring, similar to last season’s 17-14 victory. The loss of Gardner hurts but the defense features two others stars in outside linebacker Trent Murphy (9.5 sacks) and inside linebacker Shane Skov (seven tackles for loss) as well as ballhawking strong safety Jordan Richards (three interceptions). Quarterback Kevin Hogan has thrown 13 touchdown passes for an offense averaging 32.6 points, while running back Tyler Gaffney (886 yards, 12 touchdowns) and receiver Ty Montgomery (39 catches for 619 yards) are also having fine seasons.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Stanford.
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Stanford.
* Ducks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Oregon has won nine of the past 11 meetings, but the teams have split the last four.

2. Stanford has won 13 consecutive home games, the nation’s third-longest active streak.

3. The Ducks have rushed for at least 325 yards in five games with a season low of 216.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: