cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
10/31/2013 05:14 PM

Games to Watch - Week 10

October 30, 2013


The Week 10 college football card isn’t exactly the best we’ve seen this season, but there are some monster games looming in Week 11. And we don’t even have to wait until the weekend.

A pair of Thursday contests will go a long way toward deciding who gets invited to Pasadena, as Baylor takes on Oklahoma in Waco and Oregon ventures into Palo Alto to face Stanford. All four teams have open dates this weekend.

The LVH SuperBook in Las Vegas updates its lines for Games of the Year every week. The current number for Baylor is 12 for its home game against the Sooners, who haven’t been double-digit underdogs since losing 45-12 to Texas on Oct. 8 of 2005 when they were catching 14 ½ points. The Bears are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as double-digit favorites.

LVH has the Ducks listed as 10-point favorites at Stanford. The Cardinal suffered a huge loss earlier this week when it was determined that DE Ben Gardner is out for the season with a pectoral injury. Gardner, a two-time second-team All Pac-12 selection, was second on the team in sacks (4.5) and third in tackles for loss (7.5).

Oregon will looking to avenge a 17-14 home loss to Stanford in overtime last season that prevented it from playing for the national title. When these schools squared off last in Palo Alto, the Ducks rolled to a 53-30 win as 3.5-point road underdogs.

During David Shaw’s tenure, Stanford has only been a home underdog once. The Cardinal beat USC by a 21-14 count as a 7 ½-point home puppy last year.

You may remember that Alabama was an 11-point favorite for next week’s showdown vs. LSU last week. After smashing Tennessee 45-10 last weekend, LVH adjusted the Crimson Tide to a 12-point ‘chalk’ against the Bayou Bengals.

LSU won a 9-6 defensive struggle in overtime in its last visit to Bryant-Denny Stadium. However, that loss was avenged by Nick Saban’s squad in a 21-0 rout at the Superdome to win the 2011 BCS title. Then in Baton Rouge last season, A.J. McCarron’s screen pass to T.J. Yeldon for a touchdown in the final minute capped a 21-17 comeback win for the Tide.

LSU is still alive in the SEC West race. It needs to win out and hope that Auburn can knock off Alabama on The Plains in the Iron Bowl. In that scenario, LSU would go to the Ga. Dome by virtue of the tiebreaker advantage over ‘Bama (and potentially Texas A&M as well).

But the odds are stacked against Les Miles’s squad. Sportsbook.ag currently has Alabama as the -800 ‘chalk’ (risk $800 to win $100) to win the SEC, while LSU has 100/1 odds.

With South Carolina’s epic rally to win at Missouri in double overtime last weekend, the SEC East is wide open again. The Tigers appeared poised to essentially clinch the division in October before Connor Shaw sparked the Gamecocks to victory in comeback fashion.

Sportsbook.ag now has Missouri and South Carolina sharing the second-shortest odds to win the SEC at 8/1 (or +800). The Florida-Georgia winner will still be alive in the East. The Bulldogs have 20/1 odds to win the SEC, while UF’s number is 40/1.

Believe it or not, but Auburn controls its own destiny to get to Atlanta. Gus Malzahn’s squad wins the West if it wins out. The offshore website has AU with 12/1 odds to win the SEC.

In the Big Ten, Sportsbook.ag has Ohio State as the -300 favorite (Bet $300 to win $100). The next-shortest odds belong to Michigan St. (+300), Michigan (+500), Nebraska (+800) and Wisconsin (20/1). The Spartans can take control of the Legends Division with a win over Michigan in East Lansing this weekend.

The shortest odds to win the Pac-12 obviously belong to Oregon (-300) and Stanford (+300). The mystery is who will come out of the other division. Sportsbook.ag has Arizona St. with +600 odds, while UCLA’s future number is +700.

Let’s go back to Games of the Year from LVH now. While Bama-LSU will steal the spotlight next weekend, I love the under-the-radar showdown that’ll take place at Camp Randall. BYU is on a serious roll and will be gunning for Wisconsin. LVH has the Badgers as 10-point home favorites.

Other Games of the Year numbers listed below:

South Carolina -7 ½ vs. Florida
Nebraska -1 vs. Michigan State
LSU -5 ½ vs. Texas A&M
Oregon -27 vs. Oregon State
Ohio State -7 at Michigan
FSU -14 ½ at Florida
South Carolina -3 ½ vs. Clemson
Texas A&M -3 at Missouri
Alabama -14 at Auburn

Outside of Saturday’s showdown between Florida State and Miami, Fl. from Tallahassee, I believe bettors should keep an eye on three other conference clashes in Week 10.

Florida vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
As of Wednesday morning, most books had Georgia (4-3 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) listed as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 47 ½. Both schools are coming off bye weeks. Florida (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) has dropped back-to-back games at LSU (17-6) and at Missouri (36-17), while UGA is also hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak after going down vs. Mizzou (41-26) and at Vandy (31-27). The Bulldogs will get RB Todd Gurley back after a 3.5-game absence stemming from a sprained ankle suffered in the second quarter of a 44-41 home win over LSU on Sept. 28. Also, WR Michael Bennett (‘questionable’) could return and starting safety Tray Matthews has been upgraded to ‘probable.’ Bennett and Matthews were both injured in the second half of a 34-31 overtime win at Tennessee on Oct. 5. UF has lost eight players to season-ending injuries and it was down an additional pair of starting defensive linemen in the loss at Missouri. DT Damien Jacobs and DE Ronald Powell remain question marks this week and it hasn’t been easy to get accurate injury information out of Gainesville this season. UGA senior QB Aaron Murray was enjoying a monster season before many of his weapons went down with injuries, including RB Keith Marshall, WR Malcolm Mitchell and WR Justin Scott-Wesley, each of which is out for the season. But Murray still has a solid 17/6 TD-INT ratio and will welcome Gurley and possibly Bennett back this weekend. The Bulldogs had not beaten UF in back-to-back contests until the last two seasons when they won by scores of 24-20 and 17-9. The Gators committed six turnovers in last year’s encounter, including Jordan Reed’s fumble inside the UGA five in the final minute. UF third-year coach Will Muschamp is winless in six games of this rivalry, with the first four defeats coming in the early ‘90s when he played safety at UGA. Looking for a spark offensively, Florida will finally give true freshman Kelvin ‘Baby Fred’ Taylor his first career start at tailback. Taylor has looked explosive with increased playing time the last two games. The son of Fred, the Gator legend, Taylor has rushed 28 times for 172 yards and one TD, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

Michigan at Michigan State
As of Wednesday morning, most spots had Michigan St. (7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) as a six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 46. Gamblers can back the Wolverines on the money line for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200). The Spartans have the nation’s top-ranked defense that’s giving up only 12.2 points per game. They are actually third in scoring defense but No. 1 in total ‘D’ and rushing defense. Michigan (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) is fortunate to have won six of its seven games, dodging major upsets in comeback triumphs over Akron (28-24) and UConn (24-21). Michigan is an abysmal 1-4 ATS in five games as a road underdog during Brady Hoke’s tenure. Mark Dantonio’s team had won four straight in this rivalry until dropping a 12-10 decision in Ann Arbor last season. Nevertheless, the Spartans have covered the number in five consecutive games against Michigan. Also, the ‘under’ has cashed in four straight head-to-head encounters. The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for Michigan St., but the ‘over’ is 5-2 for the Wolverines. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Tennessee at Missouri
As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Missouri (7-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) installed as an 11 ½-point favorite with a total of 55 ½. Tennessee (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) beat a ranked team for the first time since 2009 two weeks ago when it clipped South Carolina 23-21 on a walk-off field goal from Michael Palardy. The Volunteers are 1-2 ATS in three road assignments this year under first-year coach Butch Jones. UT quarterback Justin Worley is out for the rest of the regular season with a torn ligament in his thumb. Therefore, Josh Dobbs will get his first career start against the Tigers. The true freshman made his debut in the second half of last week’s 45-10 loss at Alabama and looked decent. Dobbs made a few plays, completing 5-of-12 passes for 75 yards. He ran for 19 yards on three carries. Missouri QB James Franklin is ‘doubtful’ but is probably only two weeks away from getting back into the lineup. RB Henry Josey (head) and CB E.J. Gaines (quad) are ‘questionable.’ Gaines has missed back-to-back games. Gamblers shouldn’t concern themselves too much with Josey’s injury. Although he is Missouri’s best RB, Marcus Murphy and Russell Hansbrough are more than capable of carry the load. Gary Pinkel’s team blew a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead in last week’s 27-24 home loss to South Carolina in double overtime. Both schools have seen the ‘over’ hit at a 5-3 overall clip this year. When these teams met at Neyland Stadium last season, the Tigers captured a 51-48 win as 3 ½-point underdogs in four overtimes. ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
10/31/2013 05:18 PM

Thursday, October 31

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S FLORIDA (2 - 5) at HOUSTON (6 - 1) - 10/31/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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RICE (6 - 2) at NORTH TEXAS (5 - 3) - 10/31/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 97-67 ATS (+23.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
RICE is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
RICE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA MONROE (4 - 4) at TROY (5 - 3) - 10/31/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA MONROE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
LA MONROE is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
TROY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 1-0 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 1-0 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA ST (5 - 2) at WASHINGTON ST (4 - 4) - 10/31/2013, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
10/31/2013 05:21 PM

Thursday, October 31

7:00 PM
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. HOUSTON
South Florida is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 games
South Florida is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
RICE vs. NORTH TEXAS
Rice is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Rice is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games on the road
North Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Texas's last 9 games

7:30 PM
LOUISIANA-MONROE vs. TROY
Louisiana-Monroe is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 5 games on the road
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Louisiana-Monroe
Troy is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

10:30 PM
ARIZONA STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE
Arizona State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington State
Arizona State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington State's last 6 games
Washington State is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
10/31/2013 05:23 PM

College football line watch: Jump on Canes later in the week

Spread to bet now

San Jose State Spartans (-3) at UNLV Rebels

The latest confirmation that money moves are nothing to fear came last Saturday in the Mountain West, when the sharp money pushed San Jose State from a 7 to as high as an 11-point favorite in the 36 hours prior to kickoff of last Saturday’s game against Wyoming.

Charting such moves throughout the years indicates that this money rush to one side has no greater chance of success than any other game on the weekly card.

In fact, those with working knowledge of the Mountain West were a bit surprised to see last week’s move in Cowboys-Spartans, which was either an overreaction to Wyo’s ugly loss to rival Colorado State the previous week, or the sharp money simply continuing to invest in San Jose, which has mostly continued its recent pointspread prowess for new head coach Ron Caragher.

Fundamentally, however, there was little to separate the teams. Wyo jumped out to a quick 16-0 lead before San Jose began to chip away.

The Cowboys’ defensive deficiencies were eventually exposed in the second half after Wyo had extended its lead to 30-14 early in the 3rd quarter. The contest would become a back-and-forth affair. San Jose only held the lead for a few minutes of actual playing time and never extended the margin beyond seven points, the last time on a game-winning TD run by QB David Fales with just eight seconds remaining.

Those who kept pounding the Spartan side at the sports books would end up losing their wagers, as any late-week support for Wyo was rewarded with a win.

We mention all of this, however, because there is obviously some pro-San Jose sentiment among the money crowd that can actually move numbers. The Spartans still look like a go-with team, especially with HC Caragher now adjusting the offense back to its predominant spread looks that proved such a benefit to QB Fales last season. Fales has responded with 11 TD passes in his last three games, all SJSU wins.

As for UNLV, we still believe it is unlikely that any rush of support is due the Rebels despite their 5-3 straight-up mark that has them one win from bowl eligibility for the first time since 2000.

Though not taking anything away from UNLV’s accomplishments, and noting that a team can only play the foes placed in front of it, the Rebel victim list is still hardly a BCS lineup of foes. Faced with even modest opposition this season, UNLV has been overwhelmed. And San Jose seems closer to the Arizona and Minnesota sides that routed UNLV in September than the succession of weaklings the Rebs have beaten (mostly in hair-raising fashion) over the last month.

Money moves have a way of following the same teams, and we would not be surprised to see another round of San Jose support later this week driving the number up to near a full TD for Saturday’s game at Sam Boyd Stadium.

A bit of shopping early in the week should still be able to net Spartan backers a -3 price, which will look a lot better than what San Jose supporters might have to pay later in the week. Even 3.5, while beyond a key number, will eventually look like a good price for Spartan backers.


Spread to wait on

Miami Hurricanes (+21.5) at Florida State Seminoles

It was all one-way traffic last week at the Las Vegas sports books involving Florida State, as the Noles steadily rose from 29 to as much as 35-point favorites for the game vs. NC State.

Depending upon where one made an investment last week, FSU was either a winner or loser (or perhaps a “push”) against the number as the final score landed 49-17 in the Noles’ favor.

What is not lost upon the masses, however, is that the Wolfpack can be flattered by that scoreline, as FSU called off the dogs in the first half after racing to a 35-0 lead. If so inclined , it looked like the Noles could have scored 70 or more points.

Moreover, a 'public' side such as FSU does not necessarily need the sharp money to inflate a spread. The wagering masses and weekend participators are still likely to be in love with the Noles and will create buy pressure as the week progresses for Saturday’s ACC showdown at Doak Campbell Stadium vs. downstate Miami.

Still fresh in the memory of the masses, as it certainly was last week, was FSU’s recent 51-14 destruction of Clemson, which could contribute to another non-stop ascent of this number vs. the Canes as it did vs. the Wolfpack.

Meanwhile, Hurricane backers have likely been burned the past few weeks by Miami, which has been fortunate to escape with straight-up wins, much less spread covers, the past two weeks vs. modest ACC opposition (North Carolina and Wake Forest). And considering FSU’s 40 ppg win margin this season, you can guess which team has been scoring more style points with the masses.

There are fundamental arguments to support a case for the Canes this week, but we’re not here to make that argument, rather to just alert on where we see the line moving this week. And with the public still likely to be enamored with FSU, and sour on Miami, we expect this number to rise, though perhaps not quite as dramatically as did Noles-Wolfpack last week.

No surprise, then, if patient Hurricane backers are rewarded with a few extra points later in the week. Expect buy pressure on FSU to push this price close to the next “key number” up the chain at 24 sometime later in the week.

While Miami supporters already might believe they are getting good value on the current price, they could have a few more points of cushion later in the week.


Total to watch

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Toledo Rockets

As we have mentioned many times on these pages this season, the oddsmakers are nobody’s fool. And one thing they loathe is to continue getting beaten by the same proposition each week.

At a certain point, they can be expected to adjust spreads and totals high (or low) enough so they can at least have a better chance to split some of the action and prevent one-way traffic in the weekly numbers.

It’s beneath the surface, however, where oddsmakers have to really do their homework, and where a lowly side like Eastern Michigan can cause many a sleepless night in sports book offices.

It’s not just that the Eagles are so bad, destroyed every week and not able to hang within already-inflated imposts. But EMU’s degree of awful is also at the root of a recurring totals trend that oddsmakers are going to want to alleviate if possible in the coming weeks.

Simply, the Eagle defense is so bad (allowing 50 points or more in four of the past five games) that it is creating Over dynamics almost by itself each week.

While Mid-American Conference games, and especially totals involving its matchups, are rarely the marquee matchups of any given Saturday (or midweek night in the MAC), such trends are worrisome to bookmakers nonetheless.

Thus, we have seen some pre-emptive moves by the oddsmakers involving EMU trends, as the initial total on last week’s game vs. Northern Illinois was an aggressive 65.5 or 66, depending upon the outlet.

No matter, there was still buy pressure on the Over for Eagles-Huskies, pushing the total to 68 at most outlets before kickoff. The final result cruised over by a comfy margin in NIU’s 59-20 romp.

Despite the oddsmaker adjustment, the Eagle scorecard this season now favors Overs by a 7-1 margin, one of the nation’s most-pronounced totals trends. This week’s foe, Toledo, has routinely blasted EMU (as Rockets are designed to do, we suppose), scoring 41 or more in the last six series meetings, and 52 or more three of those last six (including 52 and 54-point bombs the past two seasons).

We are curious to see how high the oddsmakers might price the EMU-Toledo total later this week as a reverse-Baylor effect (no defense as opposed to high-scoring offense) comes into play with the Eagles.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
10/31/2013 05:24 PM

NCAAF betting: Pac-12 teams closing in on win totals

The college football season is in the homestretch, so what better opportunity to look back at season win total and check out which teams are on the cusp and still have a legit shot of surpassing those totals?

Here is a look at three bubble teams in the Pac-12 that have a chance, but could have season win bettors sweating out the last few weeks.

For your reference, here is a look at season win totals from 5Dimes.eu.

Stanford Cardinal (7-2)

The Cardinal were tagged with a 9.5 win total and need three more wins to cash in for bettors that had the over. Things will get interesting depending on the result of their meeting with Oregon on Nov. 7. After that matchup, they travel to USC and close the season as hosts for Cal and, finally, Notre Dame.


Oregon State Beavers (6-2)

The No. 1 passing team in the nation has six wins, and was set with 8.5 prior to the season starting. The Ducks could end up playing a role as the two Beaver State rivals close the season on Nov. 29. Prior to that, State hosts USC and Washington, but travel to Arizona State in between.


Washington Huskies (5-3)

The Huskies were tabbed with a 7.5 win total and have five already. Their next matchup, on Nov. 9, should be win as they host the lowly Colorado Buffaloes. The Huskies' final three games could prove to be nail-biting time for bettors who took the Over 7.5. The have two tough road games, at UCLA and at Oregon State, before closing their schedule against in-state rivals Washington State.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
10/31/2013 05:26 PM

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31

Game 305-306: South Florida at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 70.284; Houston 100.509
Dunkel Line: Houston by 30; 59
Vegas Line: Houston by 17 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-17 1/2); Over

Game 307-308: Rice at North Texas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 80.386; North Texas 87.648
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: North Texas by 4 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-4 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: UL-Monroe at Troy (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 73.902; Troy 72.980
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 1; 64
Vegas Line: Troy by 3 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+3 1/2); Over

Game 311-312: Arizona State at Washington State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 110.390; Washington State 88.446
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 22; 75
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 11 1/2; 71
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-11 1/2); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
10/31/2013 05:28 PM

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, October 31

South Florida at Houston, 7:00 ET
S Florida: 0-7 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game
Houston: 11-3 ATS as a home favorite

Rice at North Texas, 7:30 ET
Rice: 3-14 ATS in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards
N Texas: 12-3 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals

UL - Monroe at Troy, 7:30 ET
UL Monroe: 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Troy: 5-14 ATS against conference opponents

Arizona State at Washington State, 10:30 ET
Arizona St: 11-3 ATS as a favorite
Washington St: 9-0 OVER after allowing 325 or more passing yards


Friday, November 1

USC at Oregon State, 9:00 ET
USC: 0-7 ATS off a home win
Oregon St: 26-10 ATS in home games in November

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
10/31/2013 05:29 PM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Thursday's games

6-1 Houston is 7-0 vs spread; four of its five I-A wins came on road- its home win was 25-15 (-7) over Memphis. Cougars bounced back from first loss and waxed Rutgers in Garden State last week, 49-14 (+7)- they scored 95 points in last two games, and they were underdog both games. USF is 2-5 with all five losses by 15+; they covered both games as road dog this year, are 16-8 as road dogs since '05. Bulls' problem is offense; they haven't gazined 300+ yards yet vs a I-A team and completed 50%+ of passes in only one of seven games. AAC home favorites are 3-6 vs spread so far in conference play this season. Teams last met in '02.

6-2 Rice's only two losses are to A&M/Houston, who have a combined 12-3 record; Owls (+3) snuck out 32-31 win at North Texas in '10, after waxing Mean Green 77-20 in '08. This is 4th road game in five weeks for Rice squad that won last four games, and is already bowl eligible- they've scored 45 points in each of last two games. UNT won last three games, is 5-3 and becomes bowl eligible with win; they're 3-0 at home, including giving Ball State its only loss of year in 34-27 comeback win in Denton. Mean Green is 5-1 as home favorite under McCarney. C-USA home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in league play this year.

Underdogs covered six of last eight Troy-ULM games; Monroe is 1-4 in last five visits here, losing by 21-17-5-4 points. Losing side scored 26+ points in six of Troy's seven I-A games; they've won last three games in spite of allowing 29 ppg. Since 2010, Trojans are 2-12 as home favorites, 0-2 this year- they beat UAB by 3 in OT, USA 34-33 in only two lined home games. ULM is 4-4 but all four of its losses are by 17+ points- they're 2-2 as road dogs this year, 7-5 in last 12 such games. Home faves are 2-5 vs spread in conference games this year. Troy allowed average of 413.3 passing yards per game in their last three games.

Arizona State won eight of last nine games vs Washington State, winning five of last seven visits here- they crushed Wazzu 46-7 (-22) LY, in first matchup between Graham-Leach as Pac-12 rivals. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. ASU is 5-0 at home, but lost 42-28 at Stanford (+6.5) in only true road game and also lost 37-34 (-6) to Notre Dame on neutral field in Dallas. Sun Devils scored 53+ points in four of their five wins, were held to 50-65 rushing yards in two losses. Wazzu lost three of last four games, allowing 52+ points in three losses, giving up an average of 451 passing yards. Pac-12 home underdogs are 1-8 vs spread in conference play.




NCAAF

Wednesday, October 30

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Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know
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South Florida Bulls at Houston Cougars (-17.5, 53.5)

Houston must avoid looking ahead to a pair of American Athletic Conference showdowns when they host South Florida for a Halloween clash on Thursday. The Cougars defeated Rutgers 49-14 on Saturday to remain unbeaten in the league along with No. 22 Central Florida, who they visit Nov. 9 before a trip to Louisville for a showdown with the No. 17 Cardinals.

The Bulls will test Houston’s high-octane offense, but have not scored an offensive touchdown in a school-record 12 straight quarters despite winning two of three. Freshman Mike White is expected to make his first career start, the fourth different quarterback to do so for South Florida. Freshman quarterback John O’Korn leads a Cougars offense that has averaged 42 points and almost 500 yards and Houston’s defense leads the nation in takeaways with 27.

LINE: Houston has seen a major shift in the line, up to a 17 1/2-point favorite after opening at 14. The over-under is set at 53.5.
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Bulls are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 contests after scoring 20 or fewer points in their previous game.
* Cougars are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 7-1-1 in South Florida's last nine games against teams with winning records.



UL Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans (-3, 59.5)

The host Trojans carry a three-game winning streak into Thursday night's showdown with the Warhawks. Senior Troy quarterback Corey Robinson leads a top-25 pass attack, having racked up 2,195 yards and 16 touchdowns through the Trojans' first eight games. They'll be in tough against a Louisiana-Monroe team that followed up a narrow victory at Texas State with a 38-10 drubbing of Georgia State.

Robinson is dominating the Sun Belt Conference to date, leading the way in passing yardage, TDs and completion percentage (70.4). The Warhawks haven't had nearly the same level of success from quarterback Kolton Browning, though the senior did throw four touchdown passes against Georgia State after missing the previous two games with a torn quad muscle many thought would sideline him for the season.

LINE: Troy has held steady as a three-point favorite. The over/under has risen from 58 1/2 to 59 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing north across the length of the field at 10 mph.
TRENDS:

* Warhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on turf.
* Trojans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 October games.
* Over is 7-0 in Troy's last seven home games.



Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green (-4.5, 52.5)

The visiting Owls bring one of the nation's most relentless rush attacks into Apogee Stadium for a date with Conference USA-rival North Texas. Senior running back Charles Ross leads the conference in yards per game (116.2) and is tied for first in touchdowns (six), and has racked up 319 yards and two scores in consecutive wins over New Mexico State and UTEP.

The Mean Green boast the stingiest defense in the conference, allowing just over 20 points per game. North Texas has been particularly difficult to run against, limiting teams to 125.8 yards on the ground - the third-best mark in C-USA. The Mean Green also have a robust passing offense, averaging the third-most yards through the air in the conference (258.9) thanks to the exploits of senior QB Derek Thompson (1,980 yards, 11 TDs).

LINE: North Texas opened as a three-point favorite, but the line has since risen to 4 1/2. The over/under has jumped a half-point to 52 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 10 mph.
TRENDS:

* Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
* Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 9-1 in North Texas' last 10 games on Fieldturf.



Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars (+11.5, 71.5)

Arizona State can take another step toward being the South Division representative in the Pac-12 title game when it visits pass-happy Washington State on Saturday. The Sun Devils hold a one-game lead over three teams in the division race and are averaging 56.3 points in three conference victories. Ironically, the Cougars have allowed an average of 56.3 in their three Pac-12 defeats,

Washington State isn’t even attempting to establish a running game as Halliday is being asked to air it out. The junior set school and conference records with 557 passing yards against the Ducks but was also picked off four times. Arizona State has a versatile attack with senior running back Marion Grice leading the nation with 18 total touchdowns.

LINE: Washington State opened as a 13 1/2-point underdog, but the line has dropped to 11 1/2. The over/under has risen a point to 71 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the southwest at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
* Over is 17-4 in Arizona State's last 21 games following an ATS win.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
10/31/2013 05:32 PM

Thursday, October 31


Game Score Status Pick Amount


South Florida - 7:00 PM ET South Florida +19 500 POD # 4

Houston - Under 54 500


UL Monroe - 7:30 PM ET Troy -3.5 500 POD # 2

Troy - Under 60.5 500


Rice - 7:30 PM ET Rice +3 500 POD # 1

North Texas - Over 52.5 500


Arizona State - 10:30 PM ET Arizona State -10.5 500 POD # 3

Washington State - Under 70.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23750 Followers:32
11/01/2013 06:53 PM

USC at Oregon State

October 31, 2013

With their hopes of getting to the Pac-12 Championship Game at stake, Oregon State and Southern Cal will collide Friday night in Corvallis. As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had the Beavers favored by four with a total of 52.5.

Gamblers can take USC (5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the spread) on the money line for a +170 return (risk $100 to win $170). For first-half wagers, Oregon State (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) is favored by three (with a -120 price tag) with a total of 26.5.

Mike Riley's squad saw its six-game winning streak snapped last Saturday night in a 20-12 home loss to Stanford as a four-point underdog. Sean Mannion's fourth-and-goal pass to Kevin Cummings from the seven was broken up in the final seconds.

USC forced four turnovers and didn't commit any in last week's 19-3 win over Utah as a five-point home favorite. Andre Heidari buried four field goals and Cody Kessler threw for 230 yards and one touchdown to pace the Trojans.

In the win over Utah, USC played without 2012 All-American WR Marquise Lee due to a knee injury. However, Lee has been upgraded to 'probable' at OSU and that's great news for a Trojans' offense that is averaging only 24.6 points per game.

Kessler has had an up-and-down campaign to date. The third-year sophomore has completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 1,560 yards with a 9/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Nelson Agholor has hauled in 30 receptions for a team-high 539 yards and three TDs.

Lee has missed two games and parts of two others, so that's obviously played a tremendous role in his lack of production. And the quality of USC's quarterback play has also been down in 2013. But still, we're talking about a guy that had 11 TD catches as a true freshman and 14 TD grabs last season. Lee has 32 receptions for 403 yards this year, but he has only been in the end zone once.

Tre Madden has rushed for a team-high 671 yards. He has three rushing scores and a 5.3 yards-per-carry average. Justin Davis had run for 361 yards and six TDs with a 6.8 YPC average, but he had to have ankle surgery last week that'll keep him out for the rest of the season.

Silas Redd, the team's leading rusher in 2012 who missed the first five games this year, has only rushed for 192 yards. Redd, the transfer from Penn State, didn't gain a yard in 10 totes vs. Utah.

Oregon State has been one-dimensional on offense all year, but that hasn't been a bad thing. Mannion leads the nation in passing yards (3,263) and TD passes (30) while only being intercepted three times. The junior signal caller has completed 69.1 percent of his throws.

Mannion has one of the country's top WRs in junior Brandin Cooks, who is tops in America in receiving yards (1,256). Cooks has 85 catches and 13 TD grabs, in addition to a pair of rushing scores.

Mannion might be without three of his popular targets against USC. Senior WR Kevin Cummings was lost for the season when he injured his wrist in the final minute against Stanford. Cummings had made 23 receptions for 254 yards and two TDs.

Also, two Oregon State tight ends are 'questionable.' Connor Hamlett, the starter with 23 catches for 198 yards and four TDs this year, missed the loss to Stanford with a knee injury. Caleb Smith (17 receptions for 229 yards and three TDs) might not be able to go this week due to back spasms.

Gamblers should also check the status of OSU junior LB D.J. Alexander, who left last week's game with a shoulder injury and is considered a question mark.

USC's defense is dealing with injuries galore. The Trojans have been without their best pass rusher Morgan Breslin for more than a month. Breslin, who had 13 sacks in 2012, remains out with a hip pointer. Starting CB Anthony Brown (arm) is out this week, while starting LB Lamar Dawson suffered a season-ending injury at practice last week. Finally, reserve safety Gerald Bowman is also out at OSU.

The 'under' is 6-2 overall for USC, 2-1 in its three road assignments. The Trojans' eight games have averaged 43.9 combined points per game.

On the flip side, the 'over' has cashed at a 5-3 overall clip for the Beavers, going 2-2 in their four outings at home. They have seen an average combined score of 67.5 PPG.

These Pac-12 adversaries haven't faced each other since 2010 when Oregon State trounced the Trojans by a 36-7 count as a three-point home underdog. The Beavers have covered the number in five of the last six head-to-head meetings and they have taken the cash in five consecutive games against USC in Corvallis. The Trojans haven't won at OSU since 2004. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

--Virginia will be trying to snap a five-game losing streak when it hosts Clemson this weekend. The Cavaliers are 3-7-1 ATS as home underdogs on Mike London's watch. The Tigers are 8-7 ATS as road favorites under Dabo Swinney.

--Temple has covered the number in four consecutive games, while Rutgers is an abysmal 1-4 ATS when favored this season. The Scarlet Knights, who lost 49-14 at home to Houston last week, are favored by 13.5 over the Owls at home.

--Northwestern star RB and special-teams dynamo Venric Mark remains 'out' for the Wildcats, as they travel to Lincoln to face an angry Nebraska squad on Saturday.

--Iowa is 9-3-1 ATS as a home underdog in its last 13 such spots going back to 2007. The Hawkeyes are catching 9.5 points Saturday vs. Wisconsin.

--Florida OT D.J. Humphries will be out for the next 2-4 weeks with a sprained MCL. The Gators are already without their other starting OT Chaz Green, who went down with a season-ending injury in September. UF might get Ronald Powell back against UGA. 'Ro-Po' was upgraded to 'probable' yesterday, but he was also 'probable' at Missouri two weeks ago and didn't even dress out.

--As for Georgia, it will get RB Todd Gurley and safety Tray Matthews back vs. UF. There's a chance one of Aaron Murray's top weapons, WR Michael Bennett, could also return. Bennett is still listed as 'questionable' with a knee injury sustained in a 34-31 overtime win at Tennessee on Oct. 5.

--The 'over' is a perfect 7-0 for Florida State The only other perfect team in terms of totals going into last week was Troy. However, the 'under' appeared for the first time in the Trojans' win over Western Ky.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: