10/29/2013 12:32 AM
I knew last week I'd be all over St. Louis, but I also knew the line had to go up. Seattle is either the best team in the NFL or second to Denver, and St. Louis has been terrible, and they have career backup Kellen Clemens starting.
The truth is, Clemens isn't that bad, Seattle has major issues on their OL (especially at tackle) and each of these teams have historically had large home/road swings.
Add to it that double digit home underdogs are a very profitable angle, and this was a no brainer. As expected, the money rolled in on Seattle today, giving me 13.5 or 14 points depending on the book.
Because of Seattle's defense, I would've liked the under anyway in a vacuum, and I felt there was almost no chance of St. Louis covering in a high scoring game. So I took advantage. The parlay had great value anyway because it was correlated. Books will not allow parlays on games where the spread is at least 1/3 of the total (I heard there were even a few books that didn't allow on tonight's game, but my books did). This was close to 1/3, and thus it was correlated, although not as significantly as a -20 with an over/under of 43, for example, which you cannot parlay.* Favorite/over and underdog/under are strong parlays here, and since I loved the Rams tonight...
*-In summation, this parlay had just about the strongest correlation of parlays the books allow.