10/27/2013 10:12 AM
Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Public consensus pick: 67 percent picked Chiefs
Public perception: The Kansas City bandwagon is full considering it's the last undefeated team left in the NFL. This is true even with the Chiefs failing to cover a similar number last week against the Texans (though Derrick Johnson's fumble recovery and roll into the end zone had a lot of people going nuts in the sports books here). The public never seems to be able to back the Browns.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps would normally love to take the Browns in a spot like this, but who knew their top quarterback would be Brian Hoyer as they were 3-0 with him starting and now 0-4 without him. Wiseguys are probably more inclined to just use the Chiefs in teasers.
Tuley's Take: It worked fading the Chiefs last week and I feel I'm getting enough points here to do it again. The Browns go to Jason Campbell, who I'm not thrilled with having to rely on, but he's serviceable. Besides, I'm mostly looking at the matchup with the Browns defense, which is allowing just 14.3 yards per game more than the Chiefs, to keep this close.
The pick: Browns.