10/27/2013 10:03 AM
Picks posted all morning long to include these great picks from Dave Tuley!
Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: 49ers -16.5
Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked 49ers
Public perception: The first game in the betting rotation is the biggest spread of the week. It'll be interesting to see how much the public gets involved. Two weeks ago, oddsmakers opened the Broncos minus-28 against the Jaguars and the public -- despite making it the most talked-about spread so far this season -- mostly stayed away as they weren't willing to back the Jaguars at any price but also weren't willing to lay that many points with the Broncos. The ESPN Pick Center has the public supporting the 49ers at nearly 70 percent, but we'll see if that turns into actual wagers.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps bet the favored 49ers from the opening line of minus-15.5 at the LVH and minus-14.5 offshore all the way up to 17, and then there was buyback on the Jaguars as the line has settled at 16.5. The wiseguys probably won't get involved unless it gets to 17 again.
Tuley's Take: Double-digit underdogs are 8-5 ATS (61.5 percent) so far this season, and of the four such spreads this week (with the Packers-Vikings being a possible fifth), this is the one I like best. My power ratings have this closer to a 13-point spread on a neutral field, which this is (Wembley Stadium, London). The Jaguars had started playing better with the return of wide receiver Justin Blackmon from suspension, but then put up a clunker last week in a 24-6 loss to the Chargers. Hopefully we will see the same effort they gave in covering against the Broncos.
The 49ers have covered four straight games, but they looked like they took the foot off the gas last week after getting up big on the Titans and I'm hoping they do the same this week and will be content with a comfortable two-score win (10-14 points) as they begin their extended vacation.
The pick: Jaguars.