coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
On 10/20/2013 08:53 AM in NFL

NFL Week 7 Blitz!

It is time to get Blitzed! In one hour the Blitz begins!

Every week I break down all of the big games, and post all of the last-minute breaking news to give you the edge on winning NFL games. This includes but is not limited to stats, trends,injuries line moves and wiseguy plays and all of my best bets!!

Stop by three hours before kickoff and get ready for an overload of great winning information to bang the book!

Cole

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
10/20/2013 08:54 AM

Okay let's get started with a quick recap of my picks from last week and my overall record.

More picks and info during the NFL Blitz! Missed two winners by two points last week...

1) Ravens +1 (L)
2) Buccaneers +3 (L)
3) Patriots -1 (W)
4) Cardinals +11 (L)
5) Chargers +1 (W)

Last Week 2-3, -1.30
YTD: 19-11, +6.90

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
10/20/2013 10:00 AM

Okay there is plenty of injury news and more this week so let's get started!




The BLITZ starts now!

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
10/20/2013 10:00 AM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 43)

The Buccaneers are one of three remaining winless squads and their offensive line is in shambles, including the indefinite loss of Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks after he underwent foot surgery Tuesday due to a recurrence of a MRSA infection. Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, making his third start (first on the road) for Tampa Bay, has three touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Falcons are among the most disappointing clubs in the NFL and hope to start a turnaround when they host the struggling Buccaneers on Sunday. Billed as a Super Bowl contender, the Falcons have lost three straight contests and four of five and will be without standout receiver Julio Jones (foot) for the remainder of the season.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 7-point home faves. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 43.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+6.5) - Atlanta (+1.0) + home field (-3) = Falcons -8.5
TRENDS:

* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
10/20/2013 10:00 AM

Line MOVES

New England Patriots at New York Jets - Open: +6, Move: +4

The Pats might be 5-1 straight up, but bettors are fading the AFC East giants. TE Rob Gronkowski has been cleared to play but remains listed as questionable as we inch closer toward Sunday's kickoff.

"Early sharp money is fading the Patriots," says Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag. "Monday, we got sharp bet at +6 and moved to +5. Another wiseguy play on Tuesday made us move the number to Pats -4. Seventy percent of money is on New England."

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
10/20/2013 10:01 AM

The week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 46-80 ATS (37% since 2005) (Patriots)

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
10/20/2013 10:01 AM

- Falcons QB Matt Ryan is 34-7 SU in home starts despite dropping the last two games at the Georgia Dome.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
10/20/2013 10:02 AM


  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
10/20/2013 10:02 AM

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (+1, 49.5)

The Bears snapped a two-game slide with a 27-21 victory over the New York Giants on Oct. 10 and Jay Cutler posted his second straight game without an interception. Cutler, who played under Washington coach Mike Shanahan when the two were together with the Denver Broncos, was picked off four times by Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall the last time the Bears faced Washington in 2010.

The Redskins are converting only half of their trips into the red zone into touchdowns and Robert Griffin III is just 11-for-23 passing inside the 20. Washington is tied for 23rd in the league in takeaways defensively and Hall, whose four INTs against Cutler in the last meeting matched an NFL record, has only one pick in 2013.

LINE: The Redskins opened as 1-point home faves and are now +1.The total opened at 50.5 and is down a full point.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 7 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-1.5) + Washington (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins +1
TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0
coleryan Posts:16790 Followers:21
10/20/2013 10:02 AM

Market correction??


One-sided trends, over time, usually even themselves. For bettors, it’s strictly a matter of figuring out when these trends will flip and jumping on the other side before the value is wiped clean.

Take for example the current home team ATS trend in the NFL. Hosts are 57-36-0 SU and 50-40-3 ATS (55.56 percent) heading into Sunday’s Week 7 schedule, including a 32-24-3 ATS (57.14 percent) record for home favorites.

However, Thursday night saw the Arizona Cardinals get blown away by the visiting Seattle Seahawks, 34-22, failing to cover as 4.5-point home underdogs. And last week, home teams took a nose dive, finishing Week 6 with a 6-9 ATS record.

Those could be signs that the tide is turning when it comes to betting NFL home teams this fall. Looking back at past seasons, many one-sided trends to start the season are met with a mirror image in the second half of the schedule, keeping things pretty “Even Steven” when it comes to home/away records for the league.

Oddsmakers don’t factor those early-season trends into the week-to-week lines, staying the course with team-by-team matchups, current form and key injuries as the compasses for setting the NFL odds.

“Trends like this always come back to the mean and if anything, we expect to see more teams cover based on regression,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com tells Covers. “Now, if the public starts supporting this trend with their money, we will adjust but we haven’t seen a change in their betting behavior based on that 57 percent ATS by the home team.”

The oddsmakers are right about the trends balancing themselves out. Since 2003, NFL home teams are 1,460-1,091-2 SU and 1,202-1,275-76 ATS (48.5 percent) - excluding those neutral-site international games.

Last season, home teams were bad against the spread through the first eight weeks of the schedule, posting a 49-65-3 ATS mark (43 percent). However, in the final eight weeks, that trend found even ground, with host clubs finishing 69-67-2 ATS (50.72 percent) – making home teams 118-132-5 ATS (47 percent) on the season.

Over the past 10 NFL seasons – not including 2013 – there have only been a handful of years in which the home/away ATS lean was notable. In 2009, NFL home teams were 115-131-9 ATS (46.8%). In 2008, hosts clubs went 111-138-6 ATS (44.7%). In 2004, they were 115-133-8 ATS (46.4%). And in 2003, home teams were 51.7 percent winners with a 127-118-11 ATS mark.

Heading into Sunday’s Week 7 schedule, sportsbooks currently have 10 of the 14 home teams set as betting favorites, with the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, and Indianapolis Colts getting the points at home.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-6-0