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GOOD READING - 12 Vegas Football Stories That Will Surprise You
Top 10 Teams Killing Bookies!
(Based on the AP poll the week the game was played)
Top 10 teams are . . .
16-1 ATS the last two weekends
38-14 ATS on the season
29-3 ATS when teams were favored by 27 or less points
16-0 ATS for teams ranked #6, #7, or #8
Non-Top 10 teams favored by 20 or more points are only 48-46 ATS on the season.
* ATS stands for “against the spread”
* 4 games in which Top 10 teams played each other are disregarded
* 1 game was an point-spread TIE (aka: a push)
Kansas Yet to Play a Team with a Loss!
Kansas is the first team since at least 1980 that started the season vs. SEVEN STRAIGHT opponents who were undefeated at the time!
16-0 Odds for Packers?
Vegas odds say Packers have 7% chance of ending regular season undefeated (13 to 1 against). Packers are favored in all 10 remaining games.
Suck For Luck:
Odds of current winless teams going 0-16:
Colts: 2.5% chance (39 to 1 against)
Dolphins: 1.5% (65 to 1 against)
Rams: 1.1% (93 to 1 against)
Slightly less than 5% odds of at least ONE TEAM going winless the entire season.
Dolphins, favored by 1.5-points over Denver this week, are NOT currently favored in any of their remaining 10 games this season!
Tim Tebow Slight Downgrade:
Las Vegas considers Denver Broncos to be ONE-POINT WORSE with Tim Tebow at quarterback rather than Kyle Orton.
Carson Palmer Considered Upgrade:
Raiders odds to win Super Bowl dropped from 30-1 down to 20-1 after Carson Palmer trade.
Packers (-8 at Minnesota)
1984 was the last time the Packers were favored by OVER a touchdown AT Minnesota.
Colts +14 (at New Orleans)
Only ONE OTHER TIME since 1993 have the Colts been underdogs of two-touchdowns or more.
Dallas -13 over Rams
Only 3 other times since 1998 have the Cowboys have been favored by 13 or more points.
Tennessee +30 at Alabama
Tennessee has never been a 30-point underdog in recorded point-spread history (back to 1980). The biggest prior point-spread in the Alabama/Tennessee series was 17 (each team has been favored by 17 over the other one time).
Notre Dame -9.5 hosting USC
Notre Dame has not been this big of a favorite over USC since 1996.
Kansas State Makes History!
Kansas State, with win over Texas Tech, become only the 5th BCS team since 1980 to win 4 straight games as an underdog in all 4 games
An estimated $50 million was bet on the game worldwide (estimated $40 million on S.C and $10 million on Miss St.)
Meaning the safety on the last play COST bettors an estimated $30 million dollars!
(Although exact numbers of worldwide action are impossible to determine [percentage of bets and percentage of money does not perfectly correlate] this estimating technique has earned strong confidence.)
Adding even more juice to this story: South Carolina point-shaving rumors swept the Internet this week.