coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:12 AM


Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins minus-3


Public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Ravens

Public perception: This pretty much shows that as well as the Dolphins are playing so far this season, the public isn't ready to embrace them yet. And even though the Ravens let down the public last week against the Bills, the public is more willing to forgive them and back them again.

Wiseguys' view: Similar to the Chiefs-Titans game, the sharps are glad to back the Dolphins under a field goal as they can certainly forgive them for losing at New Orleans on Monday night. Tuley's Take: I'm not willing to write off the Ravens just yet. They were their own worst enemy against the Bills (Joe Flacco was intercepted five times), and if they don't take care of the ball against the Dolphins, they'll meet the same fate. But I think they will do enough to get the win here, or (hopefully) at worst get the push in a close game.

The pick: Ravens

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0
coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:14 AM

As much as Chip Kelly and Eagles have struggled so far, their next 4 games are against teams that are a combined 2-14. Chance for run here.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0
coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:14 AM

Baltimore: Away underdog off road loss: 61% since 2003 league-wise

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0
coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:15 AM


  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0
coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:15 AM

Visitor in Miami games 52-31 ATS

Dolphins: 10-32 ATS as a home favorite

Off last 20 losses, Ravens won the next game 18 times.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0
coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:16 AM

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Pick, 48.5)

While the Saints' offense has been garnering the headlines, the defense quietly has been much improved under new coordinator Rob Ryan, ranking sixth in yards allowed (304.5 per game) and fifth in points (13.8). QB Drew Brees has never won in Chicago, throwing for seven TDs and six interceptions in four career games there.

Jay Cutler is coming off a four-turnover performance in a 40-32 loss at Detroit. Despite the four turnovers at Detroit, Cutler rallied the team from a 40-16 deficit to make it a one-possession game late in the contest. He has a career-high 64.2 completion percentage under new coordinator Aaron Kromer — who was the Saints' interim coach for six games last season.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bears +1 at some books. Total moved 47.5 to 48.5.
WEATHER: Mid 50s, 17% chance of rain, winds W 14 mph
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-5.5) - Chicago (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -0.5
TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
* Home team is 4-0-2 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0
coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:17 AM


  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0
coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:17 AM


Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams

Spread: Rams minus-11.5


Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Rams

Public perception: The public is dying to fade the Jaguars as they're 0-4 both SU and ATS, and they are pretty much regarded as the worst team in the league this year (and maybe in many years). But they're also leery about laying this many points with the Rams, who are also 0-4 ATS. As a result, no one has had a good feeling from backing them yet, so that's why the action is pretty split at the current number.

Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys were quick to snap up the Jaguars at higher numbers. Double-digit underdogs are 5-2 ATS this year, so most sharps are in dog-or-pass mode.

Tuley's Take: Someone on Twitter said I bet the Jaguars blindly, but believe me that's not the case. I don't want to back them at all, but when I see a line inflated like this, I can't resist. I mean, this is the Rams after all -- the team that looked lost against the 49ers a week ago and hasn't covered a spread -- yet they're expected to win this game by two touchdowns? I don't think so. Jacksonville also gets WR Justin Blackmon back from suspension and hopefully that opens up the offense a little for Blaine Gabbert and takes double coverage away from Cecil Shorts.

The pick: Jaguars

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0
coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:18 AM


  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0
coleryan Posts:13308 Followers:19
10/06/2013 10:18 AM


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-1, 53)

Giants QB Eli Manning is leading the league with nine interceptions through four games. Some of that is due to poor pass protection. David Diehl is scheduled to make his first start of the season at right guard. The Giants are dealing with injuries on the defensive side, with tackles Linval Joseph, Cullen Jenkins and Shaun Rogers, cornerbacks Corey Webster, Jayron Hosley and Aaron Ross all dealing with injuries.

Michael Vick started out strong for Kelly in the first two weeks with a total of eight touchdowns but slumped to a combined 27-for-57 for 449 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in the last two weeks. The Eagles insist they are moving forward defensively and will get a chance to prove that against turnover-prone New York.

LINE: Opened New York -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 55 to 53.
WEATHER: Mid 70s, 19% chance of rain, winds SSE 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+2.0) - New York (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
TRENDS:

* Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in New York.
* Underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

  • Last 7 Days Record: 9-4-0